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Everyone seems to get excited when they think about the price going up sooner than later. Notice how the market flew the highest ever in history today and DKAM one of the only losers? All by design.
So what if it does go up? You gonna feel richer? Nope, gives almost everybody a chance to throw up sell orders. That's all it does. Vomit sell orders more like it. And that is what they are planning on.
Thank you for playing. You'll have to reapply to play again. This time on an approval basis only.
Doing the work required to bring quality information to others: Rilo787, sneakypeaky, Tirunesh, BillyC49, Coopermun, OldTimer
The Dow isn't 200 and growth gets rewarded any time the market decides to. Your scenario is out the window but thanks for trying.
You get a bonus play for particpating after hours. Four tries for a dollar.
Thx Lymmas. I wish you and some others could have been with us on Thursday and Friday in my trading group. Amazing fun indeed. Rilo had me kinda chuckling at his 9450 call when we dipped under 11K. I thought at first no chance. Then the dailies began to confirm it. Of course, we had traders in the finnies every day grabbing every fade off the open, never buying into the gaps, and it was easy money every single day. Amazing how we plucked them off one by one each day but history now. Then I went to work and came in Friday with a plan. My best chartist had 883 on the S&P pegged. I had 8350. They came out to be the same levels. On Thursday night, both levels hit overnight so I knew we were in for trouble with lower numbers than that. RSI-5 at ridiculous, in fact stupid lows. Yet, always, always, always, always, did I say always? When the RSI-5 dips under 10 throughout history, the market has a major bounce within three days. So, it was clear to see like DKAM has been since the start, the powers that be would come in early and blow it off but shorty wasn't going into the weekend empty handed. Rumors were floating about G7 and the Gov coming in to buy up financials. So, I put it out there we could see 7850 early and could easily tap 9000 intraday on a bounce. Sure enough, 700 in the first 6 minutes and within 20 more minutes, we bounce 530. Afternoon action had us tap 8901 so I came up light there. But felt certain we were golden for today. Holding a few was key. MS was the Golden Child on Friday. I told my other group I was putting in a limit during pre market for 6.78, yet even though it was tanking, it offered three beauties on a platter; 10.85-11.55; 8.85 to 10.25; and 7.73-8.55. Then an alert went off while I was futzing with a program that kept closing up on me. $6.78 was filled. Low of day $6.71. Within minutes, half were gone at 10.55. The rest to hold for today. And ohhhhhhhhhhh what a day. First thing this morning, I said, "Looks like 9K for sure and 9350 coming." My chartist said., Could easily be a 1000 point day." These idiots left a trail of no liquidity to the upside. No brainer. Sure enough, right on both counts. Even better was the call that the gap would fade at the open and we could run large. I said, "Another one of those days where the indexes never leave the high of the day. Just the oppositie of these idiot shorts that think the market is gonna cave for them every single afternoon just because they breathe oxygen." And it did just that.
Most will never realize this collapse of the markets appears on the surface to be all about credit and derivatives. Most will never see the trades that account for over 1 trillion in FTD's getting covered, and another $500 billion chasing the number back up.
Yes, to answer your comment, XL has turned out to bew a beauty over $8 tonite and the Q's flying over a buck for another gap in the morning. But be careful, do your selling early. We have some confirming to do. She will back up.
You weren't there when I was in the room with somebody rather affluent and he asked me about oil the day it hit $147 on Goldman's call of $160. I said, "If you can short it, then load the boat. Any time somebody starts giving ridiculous targets on indexes and high flyers, it's time to go short." I said so everybody could hear me, "Oil is done. Straight down to $77 she will go!" Well, we got pretty close at $77.81 Friday.
Now you know what I do every day. I pick them for them, they play them and make large. Seeing what I can do 80%-90% of the time and then seeing the earnings, the Kid deal, the CC, the profit number at 10-11 mil, and the Violator, WMG, El Jefe, Live Nation coming, then how is it I could be wrong about this stock? I'm not.
Then you see somebody who ran this board into the ground for months and probably lost a fortune so has a grudge against anybody that talks it up unless it is flying so they don't have to do any DD. Otherwise, the ONLY DD they do is DISRUPT AND DECEPTION. Throw in DECEIT if it makes you feel better. Maybe even some oral DEFACATION if that's your style.
Who you gonna go with?
I'm willing to make a bet. I'm going to go out there and say this stock doubles or triples within 3 weeks. Any takers? Of course, if I was the one loading 15 mil shares over the past 8 months, would be pretty easy to say to the minute when it would take off.
Get your stop watches out. I won't say "Lab Rats" but I did enjoy that movie!
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OK I HAVE HAD IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I HAVE BEEN PATIENT TO THE POINT OF LOOKING LIKE A FOOL FOR EVEN PARTAKING IN THIS CRAP.
First, any company of any worth on Wall Street goes higher on increasing sales and increasing earnings. You rest your case?? On what!!!!! Are you nuts??? Are you blind?
So the phruck what if their sales have gone higher the past three years. Toot toot. Back door growth into the trunk of the car.
Rox's earnings?
2006 LOSS OF $5.8 MILLION!!!!!
2007 LOSS OF $9.3 MILLION!!!!!!!!!!!!!
2008 LOSS OF $6.3 MILLION!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Chalk up all the sales you want and it doesn't get any better no matter what they do.
DKAM aggregate growth from 2006-2008 68%. Far higher than ROX. DKAM loss of .16 in 2006 now .08 and sales going forward taking them profitable. ROX may never post a profit ever!!!!
And as for your 35 cent short position???? DKAM just hit an all time low of 301 shares short. The lowest of any company on any exchange anywhere!!!! There is no way you have a short position unless you are one of those infamous trolls you hear about that posts dribble to cause a stock to fall and only has 300 shares.
If you have more than 301 shares, then you just landed yourself in jail with a naked short postion. How many shares you got PKG?? Cmon how many??? If it isn't naked, and it isn't 301, then it is a lie all in itself, and that just landed you a basher ban from this board for life.
Sep 30, 2008 301 -66.67 114,418 1.00 No No
Sep 15, 2008 903 0.22 65,379 1.00 No No
Aug 29, 2008 901 0.00 62,122 1.00 No No
Aug 15, 2008 901 -93.92 92,162 1.00 No No
Jul 31, 2008 14,816 -69.24 231,496 1.00 No No
Jul 15, 2008 48,170 86.38 121,291 1.00 No No
Jun 30, 2008 25,845 -11.72 98,675 1.00 No No
Jun 13, 2008 29,276 33.35 143,732 1.00 No No
May 30, 2008 21,955 -58.73 79,965 1.00 No No
May 15, 2008 53,202 12.13 162,610 1.00 No No
ROX gets $15 mil and financing. Stock is up because it lends to viability going forward.
Drinks did the same thing and lost 93% of its value.
http://investor.castlebrandsinc.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=339952
Well, all I know is what I know. A carefully calculated accumulation process by a certain entity on HANS through 1999-2001 led to the most astounding run on a stock in the past 15 years. The same group then moved over to JSDA at .18 and began the same process. As Ore said, retailer deals were being announced and nothing happening. Then these guys carried it over a buck, and then to two, and then to three to settle out around two. Then they tandem played it all the way to $33. Now we have the same guys hand holding DKAM for a solid 8 months with their program like the other two. Show it weak, create and move it such that their coffers get loaded under the radar.
Every day that it continues to display the exact same qualities over the same amount of time as the other two with the same MM players involved, and every day it makes the likes of PKG seem like he has a valid argument, the more certainty it gives to the exact same thing going to unfold here.
We came up with Kid. We came up with the CC. We came up with the players on the stock. PKG came up with a board he can come to and talk about how he is talking DKAM down on other boards.
I am 100% certain the same thing will happen here as happened with the other two. When your patience is at its thinnest, it will happen.
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Just on CNBC. "We don't care what the short term earnings power is on many of the companies we have isolated that have solid growth going forward. You need to focus on what the company is showing you 12-18 months out. Those will be the solid movers going forward and will reward shareholders with much higher prices."
I'd say that sums it up. In fact, it sums it up.
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"Success Distilled" Golf Shirts & Jackets to go with our new golf icon scotch. That was filed last week in case you missed it.
On a related note, Ballesteros out yesterday with news of a brain tumor.
FOUR!!! New Trademarks filed. American Bad Ass, White, Blue, and "KR"
Well, well, well. Talk about underscoring the Kid Rock Beer release.
We now have Rock Red, Red Beer, American Bad Ass, White, Blue, and KR.
So Kid is going to follow the Red, White, and Blue theme. I believe I referred to this as a natural path to follow a few days back. You know, White for a Pale Ale, and Blue for a Light.
Now all that's left is to see if they go with Rock Red Beer, Red Beer, American Bad Ass Beer, or KR Beer.
Seems to me putting the pieces together I could see a line called American Bad Ass. Would certainly turn heads when somebody yells it out in a bar. Then they could easily scream for a Bad Ass, Bad Ass White, or Bad Ass Blue. Then that turns into a Bad Ass, White Ass, and Blue Ass.
Your neighborhood bar? They better have a special every night on White Ass. If all goes well, every bar at the end of the night is gonna smell like Ass. That chick you're kissin on? Yep, she gonna smell like Ass too. As for you. You damn well better smell like Ass!
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I can understand your concern Stockman. We had spent several days talking and digging away from this board and I guess we should have shared. There were four of us calling in and as you may already know, Kenny cut the call off at exactly the 45 minute mark with several callers on hold.
Here is the link to the questions again:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=32588813
#1 was answered I believe on the call. It was also answered beforehand by someone who checked into things. Yes, we do have a great existing relationship with Cold Water. However, to Kid, MN and MI are more than miles apart. Kid is from Mich and would prefer a beer from "American Bad Ass Beer Company" come from where "America's Bad Ass" comes from. If he can't get one, I suppose he'll go with what already works well IMO.
#2 I personally was on hold for this one when he cut us off. But he already said more was coming.
#3 He answered this in the dialog session by stating the exact same numbers I came up with. Drinks will move to profitability between $10-$11 million in revenues. No question to ask.
#4 This question was also asked and it drew reference to not being sure about how the warrants would work for Universal at $1.20 and if this was in addition to warrants for Kid at the same price. Kenny deferred it to information in the public domain and the caller was not able to press him on it.
#5 Kenny talked in the main dialog about having three companies interested in analyst coverage of which, one just filed for bankruptcy. That would have to be LEH. But there are two others out there watching everything he is doing.
#6 The question was also asked to elaborate on the Israel deal and the question to higher than the minimum of $300K a month was handled in the dialog by stating the contract came out to $78 mil, or $5.2 million per year, with a minimum contractual payment of $300K per month no matter how the products fall.
#7 Kenny has been asked this question in the past. It would have been nice to hear it again on top of all this other news. He doesn't want to be on the OTC any more than you guys do. A caller was waiting to ask it once again when the call ended. I would assume he will talk more about it the closer we get to the proper Standard Minimums being reached.
So, we're really not all that in the dark as to what we wanted to know. My concern is that with some guys listening from Maxim, we'd get a caller, "Hey Kenny? I'm in Afganistan and I need some Yak and Spak in my sack! When's it gonna be here?"
Ooops. We did.
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So that's the way it is. You were already told earlier in the week since you were trashing DKAM over on another board that you would not be allowed back here for any reason. So back you come anyways baiting and enticing others to do your DD for you. It was all spelled out in that post of how it works. Then the instant somebody comes up with credible information and comparative analysis in the sector, you come back with "Nope ain't gonna happen."
No DD. No channel checking. Totally in the face of the news. Totally in the face of the CEO and the COO.
You just deem from all of this it ain't gonna happen. CEO says profitability comes at $10-$11 million in sales. He has called for an additional $15 mil over the current sales base.
So I'd say you can just let yourself out the back door and we'll forget you were ever here.
Now who am I responding to again? Ooops, nobody here.
I am really hoping he will go short. After all, somebody has to step up and skew that 903 shares short number.
Do us a favor. Pretty please? When you do go short, will you please tell us? We tell you when we go long and buy more. Just for once, tell us when you go short.
I have a surprise for you.
OK you know I'm going to ring in with my two cents worth. I isolated 30 stocks all under a dollar except for one that have been ruthlessly beaten down in this market. Now keeping that in mind, the hedges always find those stocks on a rebound one by one and they usually will triple or quadruple in a day. We've all seen it before and it will happen again.
When I isolate them out to their various sectors, of which there are seven, the same thing holds true that has always held true. Those related to biotech could lose billions and still they would have worth because of what they are working on.
The energy stocks will always have ridiculous PEs of like 2 or 3 at these prices but they are these prices because they have lost more money than we can ever imagine and the 12 month trailing PE just hasn't caught up yet. Or, they got a one time cash infusion of some sort and it ricidulously skewed the PE.
So it brings me back to some of the beverage stocks. Tough to compare yourself to a beverage stock when we are a distributor of beverages and a manufacturer of spirits. But still, where else can you go.
So while you're trying to fit a square peg in a round hole,(The square peg and round hole is this stock with a 300% growth metric going forward in a market that values bankrupt stocks equally as high.), the market only has to look at things this way and no other.
Bankrupt stocks have been valued of late at .05-.35 cents. Others in our sector under a dollar are being valued as this:
ROX Price .18 EPS $-1.76 Rev. 27 mil
LBIX Price .33 EPS $-.30 Rev. 31 mil
WYDI Price .10 EPS $-.46 Rev. 980K
JSDA Price .75 EPS $-.70 Rev. 39 mil
REED Price 1.49 EPS $-.78 Rev. 13 mil
DKAM Price .24 EPS $-.08 Rev. 4.5 mil
Now you can keep vomiting all you want to that DKAM is not going anywhere until the sales have already happened but it's obvious that DKAM will have the smallest amount of sales and be the only one of these companies posting a profit in 2009.
The plain fact of the matter is there is nothing out there to justify it going lower in any way. Every one of these stocks has much, much larger losses than DKAM and no sign of that changing for any of them any time soon or even close to soon.
And if JSDA can make it to $33, then so can we. After all, they did it on news of exploding growth well after getting their Target deals.
REED at 1.49 and losing a boatload. DKAM when it hits that $13 mil will be posting profit.
Look at them, look at them again. DKAM fits nicely in that puzzle around 80 cents to a buck if not more. Then the 300% growth and move to profitability takes it above its old highs at $3.58. After all, everyone who buys it up then knows Kenny will be coming again next fall to tell us the sales are soaring again on the next three iconic introductions.
So keep trying to isolate what they are going to put on the board for October 31 and if it isn't something stellar, then where you gonna go with it?
And besides, you been talking junk on other boards about DKAM. I thought nobody was going to pay any attention to you over here.
Oh, and another thing. The market cap for JSDA on Friday was actually below DKAM. About the same now. JSDA with sales and EPS falling off a cliff. DKAM with sales and profitability exploding.
Reverse them and then you'll have a feel for what they should do on this quarter's numbers.
Doing the work required to bring quality information to others: Rilo787, sneakypeaky, Tirunesh, BillyC49, Coopermun, OldTimer
Well you hear Cramer say it all the time. He even used it when he was popping the Googleiites and the Bidudians at $150 and $50 respectively. You hear it in every major Buy rating as being undervalued. You see it in every stock that has a meteoric rise to the upside. You see it in value. You see it in growth. You see it in momentum.
And now....you have the distinct pleasure of seeing it here:
DKAM....1 times multiple of 2009 sales
And even better than all that:
Forward P/E of 3
Doing the work required to bring quality information to others: Rilo787, sneakypeaky, Tirunesh, BillyC49, Coopermun, OldTimer
So it is like the IRS. You only have to pay us $15000 in taxes this year because we are giving you a $2000 tax credit. Aren't you lucky! So goes the market. They steal over $2 trillion of wealth out of our economy and tell us, "Even though you don't have any money to go anywhere, we'll be dropping gas 20 cents a gallon tonight just so it will be more affordable to sit at home."
Oh wait! Washington math. An 8% drop in oil today means a 2% drop in gas prices.
Sorry, maybe next weekend!
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Brag to your neighbors. JDSA 70 cents.
Fair enough Coach and that's why 2 sides to every fence.
BUT! The market has ALWAYS, I repeat ALWAYS found a bottom on ANY RSI-5 drop under 10 and has ALWAYS rebounded from ridiculous low fear readins on the Vix. Former record of 48 now at 70.90 today. If the Vix were in play in '87, the fear reading would have been 150. But it wasn't.
Bottom. Retest. Reload.
Most retail won't be bringing 1.5 trillion back to market until 2000-3000 points higher.
I shouldn't do this Ore, but in these times everybody needs a hand.
My favorite now is XL. We were grabbing the $3.50-$3.70 area yesterday and up on $5.88 now. News out company expecting Book Value to move to $21-$23 area in first quarter. Just cannot keep it this cheap no matter if market is zero. Looking for double digits.
Always super winners on ANY dip with this market with enormous percentage bounces are NCC, RDN, and MTG. NCC with strong buyout rumors out there. They all three move very quickly.
Of course, if somebody is loading DKAM large, no other place to be than with them.
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Called it at 7900. Market should finish green.
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You can go to this page and listen to the call in its entirety.
http://www.drinksamericas.com/ir.cfm
(Click Webcast Link)
And you can go to this page and see clearly the presentation that was given to "a packed house" at the Maxim Growth Conference on Tuesday.
http://www.drinksamericas.com/files/MAXIM_GROWTH_PRESENTATION%20[Compatibility%20Mode].pdf
Slim?? Call of the wild. You're up! lmao
Is anybody gonna say it? Are you waiting for me to say it? Well wait no longer!
Investing 101-Do your own homework.
Message Board 101-Do your own due diligence
Basher 101-Get them scrambling around doing all your work for you and clutter the boards with meaningless posts about old news and the "perception" that the company will never amount to anything.
You did it before. Clearly OLD sales numbers are out there for everyone to see. Play with them any way you want. OLD sales numbers clearly show sales in 2006 of $1.6 million. Now they are $4.5 million. They are guided to $20 million over the next 12 months. It doesn't make a rat's fart what happened in between or who got a discount or who said what and what didn't happen. Nothing fits into your little mold of nice and tidy 5% growth quarter over quarter. It is a true growth story and no one here is going to allow you to continue to belittle it. Deal with it. It is an OTC, deal with it some more. It is a billion dollar company in the making. Now really deal with it.
Now you're here trying to go back once again into the past and compare the questions we wanted to ask versus what was asked and answered. Nobody is going to take the time to one, go find the questions for you, and then go listen to the audio for you. Certain things were addressed. Others were not for very specific reasons generic to those products and deals. Nothing to hide. No smoke and mirrors. No smoking gun. No pills to make your hands swell so "black gloves" don't fit in court. The callers were lined up with numerous questions. Kenny cut the call off when it hit 45 minute mark as previously planned.
Kenny hit the important ones and that is all that matters:
-We are moving to a $billion enterprise
-Israel is a minimum of $3.6 mil a year and more likely at $5.2 mil a year
-Huge margin savings on Sparkling being made in US
-$15 mil in incremental business over 12-18 months
-$10-$11 million in revenues is break even
-Company obviously going profitable
-No need to raise capital. No dilution. Warrants at 50 cents. Warrants at $1.20
-Russia is producing and shipping. Tax stamps resolved
-Golf deal with a scotch coming
-Sparkling Vodka a true game changer. Huge
-Topless and Cognac fully rolled out by Super Bowl
-Kid beer company "American Bad Ass Beer Company"
-Current price valuations cash to per case. $1.40 to $2.60 per share
End of story.
Profit Alert! For those of you counting pennies and there are many!, here's some tidbits to put in the proverbial pipe to smoke, and once again, too many doing that also.
Going back to the CC, we learn some new things. The Topless brand was moved from production in Europe to production in the US. That means they pick up additional profit on the Euro exchange AND the shipment dollars. I remember a comment before something about "2 bucks a bottle" with respect to production of Trump and shipping/exchange to the US. That is $12 a case improvement to the bottom line. May not seem like much to you, but it moves straight from 40% margins and goes straight into NET PROFIT dollars at this point. An expected additional $500000 in net profit.
We also learned the price of the Cognac. 1500 cases represents a "quarter of a million dollars." That is $166 a case, or $27.70 a bottle to the distributors. That means on the high end like we said before, a Suggested Retail Selling Price of $49.99, but it will likely hit most liquor stores and on the net for $34.99 up to $39.99. That is VERY affordable from a cognac standpoint.
And as a point of reference, Kenny said, "We couldn't really comment about Kid Rock beer on the last call. I hope the caller who asked about Kid Rock beer is on this call so we can comment on it at length."
That would be Stockman and he got a reprieval! lol
Awesome must see!
Wow Lee, you're putting me on the line here. But I'll tell you how it was laid out to me in the beginning:
Start up
Influx of capital
Secure distributors
Major introduction of an iconic product
Financing the distribution and expansion
Iconic expansion
Global expansion
Further iconic expansion
Further build of baseline business
Critical Mass build
Subsidiary build
Acquisitions
Move to profitability
Shareholder value build
Analyst coverage
Move to higher exchange
Share buyback
Further iconic expansion-25-30 total
Further global expansion-35 countries
Build to $300-$500 mil in sales
Capitalization to $2.5 billion
Buyout
As far as when, it was laid out as an 8 year plan through 2013. But also, the move to profitability wasn't expected until 5 years, or mid 2010. So, ahead of schedule in that regard.
If I had to make an educated guess knowing they have been approached in the past for peanuts, somebody is liable to put the numbers together and show up with a sizable exponent to the current growth rate between now and 2010. The question is do they hold out for another year riding the growth rate for more. I would expect a deal to be consummated by 2012 at the latest for the company.
Not "interesting" at all. I believe that number was posted here just last week. Because it IS the truth.
Therefore, you take a 300%+ increase in sales AND a move to profitability away from the call for 2009.
Anything else is just gravy. Of course, anything else is further momentum.
Yeah, I can give you a perfect explanation. Any time a group is running a program to accumulate large and manipulate a stock, they get total control and NOBODY gets past them. It might have to do with that trade yesterday that got out of market at .28 when the ask was .27. These guys cannot afford for ANYONE to enter a trade and make that happen. So, they put it on further lock down so they control ALL the inside B&A action. That means they are forcing retail to call in orders and direct them to the market makers. That way they know IN ADVANCE what is coming and manipulate around it.
That could be the most ridiculous thing ever written. Here is what you just said:
"I would never in my life invest in a company that lays it out there and is totally transparent. They are detailing their formula for growth worldwide and even drawing their exact comparisons to the likes of Grey Goose as the best selling vodka and Hansens, the best performing stock, and beverage stock, of the past 15 years. They even go so far as to teach me how they are valued in their business for buyout purposes. They show me exactly how the multiples are derived from numerous acquisitions in their sector from the recent past. But you know, I couldn't possibly invest in a company like this. Yes, I know if I buy here, I can expect to make $$$millions of dollars as everything points to this stock going exponentially higher as it seeks those exact levels detailed by so much precedence in the sector. Why? Because it's the principal of the thing. How dare they run this company just like the CEO has been so successful at creating and selling for big profits in the past? Or the guy who created and sold SoBe? How dare they sell out and maximize shareholder value and create iconic branding to the level the world has never seen before? How dare they leave me with no company to invest in after I make all this money? No thank you! I would much rather spends days upon days staring at charts and reading market maker signals and posting this or that and denying the real truth of the matter. I would much rather look at 12-24 months in the past and ignore accretive growth and focus on a dip in the business that is inherent with all start ups, inventory fills, depletions, and fills again. I would much rather throw my money at some other stock that falls victim every day to what 30 other stocks in some index are doing that have ABSOLUTELY NOTHING WHATSOEVER TO DO WITH MY COMPANY OR ITS BUSINESS NOW OR GOING FORWARD. Nope. No thank you."
What he is referring to is simple. Any of the guys from Tuesday. Any of the guys who you see jockeying around all day long; HDSN, NITE, AUTO, UBSS, SALI. They all have Level 3 which indicates the Axe on the stock; the big buyer or the seller in the crowd. Any of the guys on Tuesday can pick up the phone. They get something like this from the MM of choice they speak to. "Able has the Ax. Had it for 8 months. They got the warrants at 50 cents. None of those available to hit the tape. They've got the ground. Nobody gets in unless its twice the price or more. They are naked and getting that action cleaned up." Or something to that effect :)
The only way it gets taken away is if somebody with a stake and a commitment of roughly 500K-750K shows up and wrestles it away from them. They will have to take out the ask and at least 8-10 cents above it. Then they have to follow on with bids at least 50K each for 5 cents deep. Every sell of theirs that gets taken out immediately comes back in on the back end bids for support. Minimal sells and then support. Then they catch the full liquidity gap in the .70-1.25 area and it takes care of itself then.
More important than anything at this point is the sudden arrival of JP Morgan on the B&A lurking in the shadows. They must have liked what they heard Tuesday.
Put these Easter Eggs in your baskets gang. Don't ever let them go and definitely don't let them start stinkin while you admire the pretty colors.
Grey Goose was bought out by Bacardi for $2.3 billion right?
2007 Annual Sales = $57.3 million
Do the math at Drinks at $20 mil in sales after today's call.
Jason can skinny out the per case all he wants to. But each alcohol brand will be given its own premium by whoever chooses to pay it.
Nobody ever will pay these multiples until they do. And they keep doing it over and over despite ALLLLLLLLLLLLLL the idiots that say it will never happen.
Dere it iz Slim. You craked the case. Obeously da names wuz shortchanged to protract da indigent.
I puts em in da Pots Offix in da moan.
Sey hey to Gertrude fo ya? She still watin fo a spexial deliverance from da swamp. COD and STD Certified!
OK, let me give it to you right from the hip. Long but I am convinced DEAD ON. Three interests to protect. Ours first, then the money guys, then his and The Board. How do you satisfy all three? Considering 20% of the shares makes 99% of the noise and is responsible for 0% of the move. You do exactly what he did today and did in the past.
Now, play along. It is the answer. One thing you will learn is ALL big money knows what is coming 12-24 months out; 6-12 months in advance. You can dance around YOUR issue of no Dre date. It is what it is. When you realize this is THEIR agreement and we're the contractor, you will understand Iovine calls the shots. They are dumping the VISIBILITY and mktg money into the Debutante's Ball. They say when it debuts. Not us. Same with Kid. We will be drinking BOTH Yak and Spak for the Super Bowl. All that matters.
Now for the REALLY important stuff. Who stands to gain by selling? Absolutely not a soul. All the 144's have passed for a good length of time. They got their money. There hasn't been one in forever. There are no insiders selling. You hear me? No funds selling. It is orchestrated.
So now we turn our attention to WHO has the most to gain by manipulating the price in this area. Who could easily perpetuate a blockade on this stock AND what would be their interest in doing so.
Well, let me tell you. But first, look at what WAS REALLY said today. "We don't use the "B" word around here" to SEVEN times using the "B" word. He doesn't like to give guidance. He gave guidance. But what WOULDN'T he touch or skirted around? Get off the products for a second and REALLY listen. The call was for us. What he DID NOT say was for them. The money guys. First, THREE analysts watching everything they do. One is gone BK. That would be either LEH or BSC. Great company to be in. Now there is Goldman who brought HANS to market ON THE DEAL that they would get the buyout if and when it occurred. Go back and look. Literally sideways all through '98 in advance of the Monster introduction. Plowing along with great guidance of what was to come. Nobody cared ORRRRR so it seemed. Goldman was controlling the market and getting all the shares. Sideways all year with several days over 1 million shares with less than 6 million OS. Still no movement. Then "just suddenly" it starts to go and then gone. Oh sure, they will tell you they don't come in under a buck. But c'mon. Ignore a great story IN ADVANCE of what you can see from every angle is history repeating itself? Knowing you can control ALL the shares at the price you want?
Also, you had to take note of the "warrants" question. He threw out the capital inflow on the warrants to be converted over 50 cents. It is anti dilutive and raises Shareholder Equity. But more important, when the question was raised to elaborate on the Dre warrants at $1.20, he said he would only elaborate on what what in the public domain. He DID talk of the $1.20 Dre warrants in detail on the last call. Now suddenly they are off limits? Was the deal with Kid the same kind of thing in the equity relationship? No matter if it was. Probably so.
So here's the deal and take it to the bank. Warrants to exercise at 50 cents. Warrants to exercise at $1.20. Per case valuations thrown out at $1.40 low up to well over $2.00. No accounting for the further deals and the additional icons. That just adds more.
Now, play it out yourself. Stock is at 25 cents. Some guys with deep pockets want to make a lot of money at 50 cents. A couple more guys and a big music company want to make alot of money at $1.20. Don't you think all these guys are going to make absolutely sure they make THEIR money? They always do!
Now, go back again. Summer of 2007 Universal is announced. No action. Nobody cares. Yet on the heels of some financing. I don't care if it is Able or Enable or Midtown or WTF it is. That is immaterial. The point is you have to have a hook for these guys to get in large and stay the course. You could argue they filed their warrants to convert in January at 50 cents and on 2/28/2008, the stock ran to 60 cents. Boom! Instant conversion. Wrong! No filing and no cash intake for Kenny. He wouldn't have mentioned it today if it already happened. No, it brought in fresh retail before the game actually began. More sellers because of no movement. This was their in. Now she's on lockdown.
C'mon think about it! If this was some wharped sense of self gratification on "look what we did" on driving the price into the ground with NO DTCC REPORTED SHORT POSITION, then wouldn't the price already be a dime? A nickel? A penny? Never going to happen. No, there is something to this 25 cents it keeps gravitating towards.
Now go to the action. Maybe FINRA got their hooks in them. You have to have seen the mirror trades in the past two weeks. This time though, they are mirroring TO THE UPSIDE. But how odd is it, the mirrors happen in between the B&A and then immediately the next trade crosses at the stated price shown. Then there are "in betweens." Two biggies today of 30000 at .255 non posted and then 27400 at .2675. You have had to notice how the low of the day ALWAYS manages to get exposed and 9 times out of 10 it is a negative number for the day. All part of the game. It is accumulation at its finest. IT IS WHAT THEY DID TO HANS.
But what of the shares. Simple. Shares they own and some nakeds. When you buy the ask, it is their shares. They just put up more. They run a naked on your buy into the bids to get their buys filled for their actual long position. Then as a "journal entry" only, they run the cover of the naked shares between the spreads. So, these guys are truly giving themselves a huge, long position over time on trades that really don't all exist. Not even close.
Now if you were close and knew the deal back last summer and fall. Then you knew that icons were coming and global expansion, you could easily take 8-10 months to accumulate an enormous position on a stock that averages at or under 100K a day. You'd have to! And what would make your job the easiest?? That's the simple one. It's the one that ALWAYS makes your job the easiest. You wait out the retail investor and BORE THEM into selling. Three things will make a retail investor sell. A stock that goes up for quick profits( The run to .60 on 2/28); a stock that does nothing but go lower(from February to July); or a stock that goes sideways and can never go up on the best of news(anytime! but specifically July to present). They control the market. They control us. It is what it is and it will move when THEY decide it is ready to move. Only one thing can beat the game and that is the deep pockets like yesterday that can read the game and decide to take the ball away from them.
Now, who has the most to gain to give credibility and visibility to what is happening? Well, the guys with the warrants at 50 cents. There is every reason to suggest and confirm those guys make a deal and as part of that deal, they decide they want to hold those shares until the company gets bought out. After all, that is what all of management is doing. The company can force the conversion if they need the cash but doubtful at this point. So, wouldn't it stand to reason with great possibility that if you can hold a price long enough to create a large position, you also have the clout to move a price higher also? Of course you do! And wouldn't it stand to reason if you knew you would get a few million shares over 50 cents valued at 50 cents, then you would have an enormous financial incentive of 100% on your money to gather as many shares as possible at half the price? Of course you would! And wouldn't you really be doing yourself a HUGE favor by scooping all humanly possible at 25 cents beginning on 2/25/08 when Dre was announced if you learned that he was getting warrants at $1.20? That is 400% on your money on top of the other 100% on your money. But if you held them all for a buyout, it could easily be 4000% on your money or more!
Now with this incentive to own as dramatic as it is and the other large shareholders of record knowing it is out there, can you see why no 144's in the past 12 months since Universal was announced? Can you see why the guidance? Why the valuations? Why the action?
There is still one piece of the puzzle to consider but all it draws to is, "I knew it had to be one of them in the end." It could be the warrant guys at 50 cents. It could be Goldman or some other institution knowing they can repeat history of HANS and can play it across the hedge spectrum that makes it a self fulfilling prophecy. There is also the likes of those interests that can naked short in Europe and can gather a large long position and naked short ex the DTCC. That places the likes of Diageo or Pernod as likely candidates who are both Europe based. While DKAM is unlikely to steal their market share, they are PERFECT candidates to buy Drinks. They know and can see the plan and know Kenny can pull it off. Wouldn't you want to grab the Lion's share of 35 mil in the float under 50 cents if you knew ultimately it would cost you 10-20 times more for the rest of the shares? And if it saved them $200-$400 million, wouldn't it be worth the time and effort to manipulate the price for 8 months? Of course it would!
Then there is always Dre even though Kenny says he is not buying. Dre wouldn't file in his own names anyways and whoever is doing it is doing such in several accounts to skirt the 5% SEC reporting rule. For now anyways. When they want the market to know they have more than 5%, they will let us know at 4 times the price.
There is no seller. No incentive to sell. Only a buyer or buyers and an incentive to manipulate. You have three options. Report it to FINRA and get it stopped. It was and nothing happened yet. Everyone get on Kenny and have him pull the reports on who's share positions are changing dramatically to the upside, or if any NEW accounts of size have been popping up. Or, just wait it out.
Like I have said and the one thing this board has sorely and long forgotten. This stock, like every stock does not need new products on the shelves or 300% increases in revenues already reported or a filing of being solicited for a buyout to move higher. It can move higher on any day and any time simply because it trades like it should; demand outweighs supply. When that is allowed to happen, and it is coming very quickly, then you really won't know what hit you. While you're scrambling to fill out a sell order, it already moved past what you wanted and will continue to run further than you ever expected.
Said before and will be said many, many more times. 80% of you will sell making an average of 20% of the overall move. My gut and peer evaluation on this issue says $20-$30 in the end. Most will be fully gone $1.50-$2.00 at best. Hoping. Wishing. Praying that it will back up like it always has.
And it never will.
No OT. It's cause you're running on Greenhouse gas!
Moo
DKAM: Here is what you missed! OMG! Huge $billion dollar company now. Awesome presentation and CC.
http://www.drinksamericas.com/files/MAXIM_GROWTH_PRESENTATION%20[Compatibility%20Mode].pdf
I have had my ass buried up the butt of these valuations for more hours than you have slept in the past year.
The 531000 cases IS AS SOLID AS IT COMES for 2009 compared to the 126000 cases for 2008 Y/E.
The per case valuation was a metric combining non alcoholic with spirits and ON THE LOW END, I REPEAT THE LOW END (You hear me??), it is $1.90-$2.40 a share. Kenny mis spoke and said $1.90-$1.40 a share. You don't EVER give ranges in reverse people.
The fact of the matter is as follows. Read it. Live it. Learn it. Love it!
Play on this:
2008 Spirits sales: 51000 cases (Base going forward)
2008 N/A sales: 75000 cases (Base going forward) (126000 Total case sales current)
Total 2008: 126000
Israel Trump: 75000 cases
Israel Olifant: 75000 cases
Israel OWR: 2500 cases
Israel Aguila: 2500 cases
Olifant Base: 40000 cases (Acquisition accretive)
Kid Rock Beer: 150000 cases (convert the $3 mil # @ $20/case)
Dre Cognac: 20000 cases
Dre S. Vodka: 20000 cases
Liquor Group: 20000 cases
Total 2009 Minimum: 456000 cases (Spirits and Alcohol)
75000 cases (Non alcoholic)
Total Cases: 531000
On a per case valuation, (Use it!), 531000 cases at $1000 low end values the company at $531 mil, or roughly $6.50 a share. High end is $1.1 BILLION, or about $13 per share. Lazo went with $500 per case tying in the non alcoholic side and that's how you get to the $2.60 per share.
But he had a reason to as the market will soon see. Guidance is one thing. Letting a big buyer load up is another. It is all THE ART OF THE DEAL!
I will tell you EXACTLY what is going on. Everything out there for 8 months indicates there is no big seller in the crowd. It is actually a VERY LARGE buyer. Someone who wants 15-20 million shares WITHOUT affecting the price. The amount of mirror trades proves it AND they are naked shorting it to fill their bids. They knew the news on Universal over a year ago. The action started shortly thereafter. They know Kenny and The Board's track record. They know Grey Goose. They know where Hansen's started from. Don't you find it HIGHLY odd that Kenny didn't lay claim to ANY comparison to Hansen's in August NOR WOULD HE EVER use the B word? "We don't use the B word around here" were his exact words in August. Yet, today SEVEN times he calls DKAM a BILLION dollar enterprise. Always large blocks moving into the bids. The ONLY way they would know to sell those blocks is if THEY KNOW those shares are sitting there. They are using off shore naked hits to get their bids filled and then mirroring shares between the spreads to get those nakeds covered. All the while they are gathering what now is well over 10 million shares and more like 15 million. It is happening. I have enough proof it is happening. How do you conceive Kenny now all of a sudden comes with such a dramatic view going forward? One because it is but more because of WHO it is that is accumulating to finish the fill process. You can think what you will. But if there was such the dramatic seller everyone would be led to believe then we would be at 10 cents or even a nickel. No, we are where THEY want us to be gathering every retail share they can get their hands on. They did it on Hansens. They did it on several others. As soon as a certain analyst he would not comment on was notified about what there was and what was coming for institutional interest some 8 months ago the process started. They will finish WITH Kenny and The Board when the company is bought out. Write it down. Book it. NOBODY can lay claim to me being wrong. I was there before to witness it and the action is IDENTICAL!
DKAM: Conf. Call 11AM 300%+ increase in sales AND profitability to be discussed plus major global expansion. Wouldn't want anyone to stare blindly into the light.
Drinks Americas will discuss the events via a conference call and Webcast on October 8th 2008 at 11 AM Eastern Time.
The dial-in number for the conference call is 1-800-593-9034 (or International callers 1-334-323-7224), confirmation pass code “Drinks”. Begin dialing in 10 minutes prior to the conference start time. To listen to the live Webcast, log on to the investor relations section of the Company's website at www.drinksamericas.com. The call will also be available for replay for seven days by dialing 1-877-656-8905, pin number 43987570.
Whoa Stockman! Now you got ahead of the game. We actually have 4 of us handling those questions already so they are asked exactly as written. But I promise, there are more and you will be able to expand on those.
Make it two pairs Ore! And an extra razor to shave your palms. You will be taking your hunny out tonite!
It's a beautiful day in the neighborhood. A beautiful day in the neighborhood.
Won't you be my neighbor?