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Or what if they think that now is the time to go private? They offer
$120/share-if you listen to a lot of the retail investors, they would take it. What about the institutions? Then Interdigital gets to keep all the riches explained in numerous posts by NJ, Joel and others.
We are not worth less than the Nortel auction. Get back to the other board where you belong.
Techinvestor, you are absolutely right about your QCOM analysis. Thanks for your well researched information. IMO, QCOM has as many
reasons to buy IDCC as AAPL, maybe more so. For years we were in a
parallel course to them in patent licensing of phone patents, without the chip business. If there is a company that understands us, its QCOM. Our engineers will fit into their operation well after
a purchase, the additional patents will make them the pre-eminent
licenser of phone patents as an almost singular source. My concern is that they dont have the cash reserves of the other interested bidders, and our chances of a greater than 6B sale wont be in the cards. At 6B, that would be a steal for them going forward and I
think IDCC would stay independent at that price. But they got
us once before on CDMA, maybe they are looking again for a deal.
Techinvestor, you are absolutely right about your QCOM analysis. Thanks for your well researched information. IMO, QCOM has as many
reasons to buy IDCC as AAPL, maybe more so. For years we were in a
parallel course to them in patent licensing of phone patents, without the chip business. If there is a company that understands us, its QCOM. Our engineers will fit into their operation well after
a purchase, the additional patents will make them the pre-eminent
licenser of phone patents as an almost singular source. My concern is that they dont have the cash reserves of the other interested bidders, and our chances of a greater than 6B sale wont be in the cards. At 6B, that would be a steal for them going forward and I
think IDCC would stay independent at that price. But they got
us once before on CDMA, maybe they are looking again for a deal.
Why wouldnt QCOM be interested in IDCC?
I dont understand why they were not mentioned at the outset. Who knows more about the potential of IDCC patents? They bought CDMA
patents from IDCC in the dark days and made a killing. QCOM is without peer in monetizing phone oriented patents, with plenty of
$$ to buy what they want. They took advantage of us once-can they do it again? If not, they can pay for us if they see value. Dont
count them out.
Gungrey, I agree, if we dont get north of $200/share-dont sell. We
can get there ourselves, plus a lot, by developing the technology on our own. QCOM did it, so can we, when the need catches up with our work.
Relax, everybody. I dont think this BS from Benziga et. al. has anything to do with the bidders evaluation of our company. If we have "worthless" patents, they will figure that out for themselves without commentary from the peanut gallery. The final bids will be what they will be and the share price will be reflected from that determination. The stock has been all over the place lately, what's another zing or two from unknown sources with their own "non consequential" agenda. All will be settled in the final analysis.
Bull, considering the quality of the bidders, I think the highest bid will also be the best bid. But, I understand what you and J were saying.
Quite correct, the board will recommend the highest bid. Lets hope it is Apple because that means Google went all in and lost. Since I figure Google is good for at least 9B with partners, that means Apple bid more. Google will not let Apple have our patents unless they get tapped out. We win big if that happens.
It is very clear that we are unable to get proper respect from Nokia for our technology. It will take the next owner to deal with them-not CAFC, I agree with you. What gets me is this situation with Apple and the Samsung tablets in Europe. Tablets have been around maybe a year and Apple has already gotten their patents validated and got Samsung excluded from that market. We get a
decision in England from Judge Pumfrey on validity, years of court
fights over here, and not one phone has been excluded anywhere. What is wrong with this picture?
5a) Or the acquirer would want to, instead of patting an infringers little head and giving them cookies and milk and saying everything is ok-throw them into a dungeon with a big hairy beast and rip out their pound of flesh, metaphorically speaking of course.
Jim, I think the 15B number from a few posters(including me) is based on the Nortel value and potential bidding on our patents,
including completely unknown value of our other work in progress. It
has been stated(true or not) that our patents have potential value of 2-3 times that of Nortel patents. If so, we should get that
value in a purchase or dont sell. If you use the low 2X-9B plus cash, the purchase should be at least 9.7B. The speculation is what
the rest of our work should be valued, plus what we have on hand, i.e. engineering staff and so forth. An evaluation has put a value of engineers at $12 per share or another half bil to 10.3B. That is
a minimum number for any of these bidders to get anywhere near the
value of our company in a sale. The other 4-5B is assuming a value
for the non-phone tech and bidding competition. Our new tech should
have a value (patents and pending patents) that will be determined
now, but a bil or two is not unrealistic. That puts us at about 12B plus competition for our work. Nortel went higher than expected because of competitive bids-no reason to expect it wont happen here. 2 or 3 bil more because Apple, Google, Samsung, Microsoft need or want us gives us that competition for our company. If we dont get the 12B from anyone (my belief), we should develop it ourselves as it will be worth more to us shareholders in the years to come. The only real speculation is value over 10.7B and I think Joel, NukeJohn and others have given
excellent specific reasons for the gap to 15B and beyond. The major problem I see is that a lot of posters are willing to settle for a value much below our real value ($100-$120/share)
because its more than they have now. That is a shortsighted view
of an important asset they own and, with patience, they will be rewarded with riches far beyond an undervalued sale now.
Lancaster-dont forget the cuffs and bow tie!
Joel, if we get 15B or more, I'm gonna run down Third Ave, make a
left into Interdigital's parking lot and do a great "Jackass Party Boy" for the world.
13B ought to do it. I dont think the GOOG alliance will go more
than 10B. 13B to kill android, make deals with all the carriers for
compression tech, and M2M- they would be getting a deal, 1.3B per year for 10 years plus interest/cost of money today. GOOG will have
to go higher to win- 13.5B aint in the cards from them.
I think Google got too big too fast for their own good. Companies like Apple, Microsoft, Motorola, IDCC have been at this a long time and understand the importance of developing technology for their benefit. Google didnt invest much in phone technology, now that they
sponsored a rival tech that infringes work that other companies spent money to develop, they whine like an immature child. They have
to grow up quickly, or they will be out of the android business. Apple or Microsoft will rule with the IDCC patents going forward, and they will be left behind. Hopefully, they will man up for their group and hit #5 soon.
No stop necessary. The BOD nor the shareholders are going to approve the sale of this company for 3.3B (4B less cash). There
will not be a sale of this company under 5.2B (Nortel 4.5B plus cash).
Nickyc, I think it has to happen. Maybe now it is forming. No single
entity in the android space has the finances to go up against Apple. Apple can spend 10% of their cash and cost Google 20-25% of theirs. And it goes way up for the other android companies. If Sammy and the rest want in, they are going to have to partner up with one another to stay competitive.
Zip,
I pointed that out in my post- there are 3 major bidders, AAPL, MSFT/NOK and GOOG. Now Sammy wants in, but I dont see the finances
behind them to go against the 3 majors. MSFT will decide things in
their own interests. Maybe Sammy decides to throw in with GOOG,along with others. Happened at Nortel, may happen here. If so,
then we have 2 or 3 sides with comparable firepower.
Maybe now the grand coalition for Android is forming. Samsung by itself cant buy IDCC against AAPL, MSFT/Nok or GOOG without going
into a big hole. But the android makers have the most to lose here. It is time for Google, Samsung, HTC, LG and the android app marketplace to get together to take on Apple, who should be the main player on the other side. That is the battle we want- world
cell domination by Apple, or survival for the android group.
I had to adapt that movie scene to fit the crazed nature of the posts I was answering this weekend. Being the staunch defender (like Belushi) of what was right to do in this situation including a slightly crazed streak-you fit the bill. Any other characterization of anyone, living or dead, was completely coincidental.
Let me think about it. Animal House easily came to mind after this weekend's posts.
Good one, Nuke. All crazed movie variations on our struggle welcome.
Thanks Data, at least someone has a sense of humor around here.
A little comic relief, adapted from the original.
Count: War's over man, Google offered $75.
Joel: Over? Did you say "Over"? Nothing is over until we decide it is!! Was it over when Nokia bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no!!
NJ: Nokia?
Data Rox: Forget it, he's rolling.
Joel: And it ain't over now. 'Cause when the goin' gets tough.....
the tough get goin'! Who's with me? Let's GOOOOOOOOOOOO...........
What the F happened to the IHUB I used to know? Where's the spirit?
Where's the guts, huh? "Ooh, we're afraid to go with you Joel, we might get less money". Well just kiss my a** from now on! Not me! I'm not gonna take this. Jim Lur, he's a dead man!! ShallowMind, dead! DMILLER-
NJ: Dead. Joel's right. Psychotic, but absolutely right. We gotta get value for these patents. Now we could do it with conventional weapons that could take years and make us millions in share value.
No, I think we need to go all out. I think that this situation absolutely requires a really futile and stupid gesture be done on
somebody's part.
Joel: We're just the guys to do it.
Zombywolf: Sell the company for $75 a share?
Joel: Shut up, Zomby. LET'S DO IT.............
adapted from Animal House
mostly written by Douglas Kenney, Chris Miller (no relation), &
Harold Ramis
Do you think management would recommend a price below the Nortel value for this company?
Count,
I cant see many sane shareholders voting for a buyout about half the price Nortel patents went for recently (less cash). At $100, you might see some action, $150 probably, $200 definitely.
$75 a share?
You must be saying that for shock value, as most of your posts are reasonable in nature. That means we sell at $61 plus cash. $61 is about $2.75B, roughly 2B less than a bankrupt fire sale price of
1/3 value SIMILAR patents just sold for. That doesnt include all the new work either. If that is the top offer, management will stand up from the table, thank them for their time and rightly leave. No one has to worry about IDCC accepting a $75 offer or $750,
as neither will happen. This company will only be sold for real value or not at all.
Who in their right mind would sell this company for $75/share? That
would be less than Nortel, and they are bankrupt.
Nicmar, look at the whole pie:
1) 100% lock up of 3G/4G/LTE phone payments for IP
2) 100% lock up of all carriers on "better pipes, bigger pipes"
3) deals with all tablet manufacturers
4) deals with all video media operations on the web and phones
5) deals with all manufacturers of machines that need to
communicate wirelessly with one another.
You might be right that it wont be $23B, probably more.
Micro,
The Great One was a master of all music and the Government too. Lets hope our company has the same B***s he had to take on the
establishment and win.
Mr Mind, I am one of those crazy posters that thinks this company
is actually worth something more. I have been here since 1999, and have witnessed the ups and downs, read pumper and advocate posts. You are correct in your evaluation of this stock prior to this month. Most of that was due to Harry C, the $250 poison pill and
IDCC trying to be a good guy in license discussions. Harry did not have a particularly great regard for shareholders, so nothing was really done to advance our interests. The poison pill was successful in eliminating meaningful discussion on purchase of the company, as there was nothing to use to put a value on the company.
No one could use the QCOM situation, while similar, their large growth was because of chips rather than IP. So that left IDCC with
licensing their tech to get paid. It is quite obvious that they were good at getting the low hanging fruit, but climbing the tree was a problem. They wanted to take the high road with barbarians, and rightly so got their nose bloodied. They tried to fight back a little, and those efforts are waiting for effect at the CAFC.
This month things changed. As of the beginning of the month, Harry
is gone, the poison pill is gone, a potential yardstick for valuation has come, and IDCC has grown big set of cajones. Ihave to say that Terry has been a bright shining light to shareholders interest. He has done a lot more to furthur our interests than Harry in this regard. Dont get me wrong-Harry was a god to this company and saved it in the dark days, but pro-shareholder action was not his way. Poison pill is gone, so the company can sell for your feared $75, or "gasp" $700. Nortel was the important catayst
to finally figure out some type of value for the company. It put
a dollar figure on what is surmised to be a lesser portfolio in
2-3-4-whatever G IP. That number is 4.5B. As you correctly stated,
we are going to find out what our value is, relative to that number. Since that is the number for now, add our cash (which is real) and you get 5.2B. That is $100/share and the resonable floor on valuation. If it is correct that the patents/company are of higher value, then quite naturally the company should receive more, than less. That evaluation is going on now, and it is a
conservative bet that it is more. Some of us like to think, if it
has twice the value at least, you should get twice the payment or dont sell. That said, we are now at 9.7B or around $190/share. Some "Wall Sreet" types are valuing us as high as $167/share, so
this number is not out of line. The real problem is what is the rest worth? No current valuation yardstick is available like Nortel, so who knows? But the fact remains that there is value there. So whatever it is-you have to account for it in a sale. It
is then obvious that we should go for double digit billions in a sale. Because of that, I believe we will not be sold. I asked
a question in a previous post about being too expensive to buy. It
took consortiums to come up with Nortel buy out cash, how are they
going to afford us? Are all the $100/share advocates saying we should sell our company for less because that is all the money available? If this company sells correctly, you are looking at $12-13B- no one has paid that kind of money to date. So, we keep
our company. Company did their duty-put the company up for sale, but no one can pay for its value. That is ok, because now they have grown a big set of cajones, and are finally getting up off the canvas, and throwing punches-note the recent ITC actions. We
are going to get our value one way or the other, someone can pay for it now, or we will develop it ourselves. You can speculate on
future cap value in you investment decision. Note that QCOM is at
94B market cap, dont you think we can get to at least 25% of that
with everything you have read on this board from GREAT advocate posters? That is $23B or close to $700 a share. Mr Mind, Count, et al, you need to get a grip on yourselves. It's going to be OK.
How about this Deal, IDCC?
We sell our phone oriented patents in 2-3-4g for what they
are at least worth- 2x Nortel= 9B. Keep everything else, the cash,
the compression work, the M2M, engineers, 2nd shift janitors, ect.
and go on with the future work. Distribute the 9B as a special dividend ($200/share) and we get to stay here and b***h about
Verizon, Frigidaire, Zenith, Magic Chef et al not paying for tech
for the next 10 years instead of Nokia.
You would be concerned about 20% dilution of a $609 stock one for
one?
$175-too low.
I dont see management selling the 2-3-4g patents for less than
twice the Nortel value. It has been asserted that these patents
are AT LEAST twice the value of Nortel patents sold at auction.
That means a sale price of 9B, wich would equal about $200/share.
Add 700 mil in cash- $215/share. That leaves everything else, the
engineers, the labs, the compression work, the M2M work-dont you think they are worth more than nothing? It is possible that IDCC
may sell the phone patents only and keep the current work. Probably
depends how crazy this gets.
If the author is correct, then we are about to see a monster battle for IDCC. It appears that Apple has the ability to shut down Android
as a competitor if that pleases them. By not licensing its patents for any price-Android market is screwed. Unless they can find some
patents that Apple needs, and threatens to shut them down. Google
has to combine with all the affected Android businesses to get IDCC.Apple gets us- game over. It has to be worth double digit billions for Apple to get rid of Android and rule the smartphone world for years to come. It is worth more than that to the Android world-survival. Game on!!
If he heads down to South Philly after the next ASM and makes
a sandwich on Sarcone's bread-he'll change his tune!!
Felix,
A start in the right direction today-filing a complaint with the
ITC and an action in DE. The only problem I have is they left some
off the list. The day after the positive CAFC decision comes out, they should give every infringer a 90 day price to settle. After
that we should then start the same with each one of them. Do you
think GOOG or AAPL would put up with them? Then the real value will start to emerge.
NJ
You and I are of the same mind concerning the real value of our company. I have been trying to make a point in recent posts of
our value being in excess of $300/share, and if no one comes up
with it-keep the company rather than sell for a ridiculously low
price ($100/share). All it takes is some calculations based on
info already out there- ie 1.2B for .1% to agree with your
projections of $700/share value. QCOM's cap is 94B, we should
be able to get to a third of that or more with our tech going
forward. Who is going to pay 30B now for it? I can wait a couple of years for that value range-can IDCC?
The only blame that management could be accused of is selling too
cheaply to Google and not bidding up the value. If our patents are
at least twice as valuable as the Nortel patents-get twice for them or dont sell. If we have world class tech in M2M, compression-get fair value for them. If we have 500-700MM in the bank, add that to the price. Since all that adds up to at least 13B-the management is
not responsible for anyone not willing to spend for fair value of this company. We will go forth and prosper with our own technology.
What ever happened to "the next QCOM". I can live with fair value or
future value, not a "fire sale" for no reason.