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Sounds like my kind of weatherman Somebody who takes his job seriously to be a protector of the people. Down to 3 posts left, so save the rest for later tonight. Stay safe all
loaded up this morning heels. NSMG has not moved much today - lot waiting in the wings. I can get out as fast as i got in but i rather be in - which i am - because of the play in GOM. It could be historic or could fall by the wayside.
good honest advice chevdawg - thats what i like to see
newaxgo this will be my last response for a while since i have only 6 posts left and day is still early. i did respond to joe bastardi video. i program in rpg 3, 4, ile, use embedded sql
i have seen the video. Joe can be sensational but also even keeled. He looks at the big picture and compares current scenarios with similiar past ones and gives you both the short and long of the scenario. Its like playing electronic chess game. The game takes of snapshot of your position and then compares it to many possible scenarios it has programmed into memory and makes the best choice. Thats why most of the time i lose (chess that is).
i work for time warner cable as a programmer. i am on call this week and every month they do thier fiscal calendar close. The good thing is i can do it at home but there is a ton of programs to run before we post and close out the month. Every month we close on by the 18th and next fiscal month starts 19th. Tomorrow be back to work doing my regular 8-5 day.
possible hurricane - nuw orleans - hurricane,track thinks so
UPDATED: 8:30 am EDT, September 19, 2007
COMPLEX WEATHER AHEAD FOR GULF OF MEXICO BUT FIRST, FLORIDA GETS SOME RAIN AND WIND
I have to say, this developing storm progged for the Gulf of Mexico is very complex. While there is little doubt in my mind that we will see something develop, there is doubt as to how strong, how well organized, how tropical and where. Most of the models show a weak low pressure area crossing Florida later today and through tomorrow. Then, once in the eastern Gulf, it takes off. The latest GFDL model shows a possible hurricane heading right for New Orleans in less than three days. An earlier run of the SHIPS intensity model also suggested hurricane intensity at some point. There are a lot of variables here and until we see a well defined surface low over the eastern Gulf, it is hard to know what the reality might be. We certainly don't want to see anything near hurricane strength in Mississippi or Louisiana- especially SE Louisiana. It may be another 24 hours before we know enough to get a clearer picture of what is actually developing. For what it's worth, other models show this heading towards Texas still, so indeed we do have a complex mess to deal with.
Before any of this Gulf business gets going, Florida will receive much needed rain in many areas. Most of it is confined to the central to northern part of the state this morning. Hopefully the rain will spread across south Florida as the low tracks westward later- there are plenty of lakes that could use a good soaking. Keep in mind too that winds will be brisk at times along the Florida east coast today as the low develops and moves slowly westward.
correction ask jumped to .07 and then back to .061. Been up since 2:30 am.
started out at 5.9 and darn bid jumped to 7.0 and then settled back at .061.
just bought 85,000 shares at .061.
gulf - weekend - worst case scenario - accu weather
gulf - weekend - worst scenario pictured here - accu weather
Rhino - read msg 7701 from yesterday - i said over open waters toward lousiana. But i was quoting someone else and passing it along. Gotta call it a night - gotta be up 2:30 am. Littlefish we got ya covered if your reading this till ya get back on the internet.
Can't get better temps for development than this
Well it end .59 down from start at .06. I think it will hang around there because of a wait and see attitude. If something serious starts brewing out of these swirls and waves the more activity we will see beause it is NSMG territory.
nuzzi boy - greap post - great images. Should post this on hurricane board also.
This sight has all sorts of winds, temps charts. Copy and paste to url search
http://www.crownweather.com/tropical.html
Thanks for the update LF. I just happen to be channel surfing last night after we talked and there was joe bastardi of weather channel talkin of ingrid coming alive again and also mentioning a tropical depression that will be created in the gulf area near Florida heading north east accross the gulf over open waters which looked to me like the Lousiana area. Things may get interesting later this week.
yea. I just happen to be channel surfing and there was joe bastardi of weather channel talkin of ingrid coming alive again and also mentioning a tropical depression that will be created in the gulf area near Florida heading north east accross the gulf over open waters which looked to me like the Lousiana area. Things may get interesting later this week.
Guess you called it a night. Thanks for the insight. It will help me understand better discussing hurricane lingo. If you or anyone can respond to post 7691 just to finish out the subject that would be breatly appreciated.
so if there is healhty breathing between the the AC and the low what you mean by moving out quickly is that it will grow in size or start to pick up in cyclonic speed or have forward momentum. Expand a little more on what you mean - moving out quickly. I'm tired, so i may be a little slow mentally or just plain ignorant (only on occasions of course).
what does anticyclonic mean - spinning counterclockwise? What do you mean it could move out fairly quicly?
Comments welcome on latest activity shown below
816
ABNT20 KNHC 172125
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2007
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE BAHAMAS IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY. IN ADDITION...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TAIL END OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WHILE
ANY COMMENTS WELCOME ON LATEST DEVELOPMENTS
CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF EITHER OF THESE SYSTEMS...SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER FLORIDA OR THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AS THESE SYSTEMS INTERACT.
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID ARE LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS. REDEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES IS PRODUCING A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR IT CONTINUES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Very little left of Ingrid - 5 am advisory
Ingrid continues to lack organized deep convection...and no longer qualifies as a tropical cyclone. Consequently...this will be the last advisory. Strong westerly wind shear is expected to continue for another 48 hours or so...and there will likely be very little left of the system to take advantage of a less hostile upper flow pattern in 2 to 3 days.
The circulation has little signature in the low cloud lines and its center seems to no longer be well defined. My initial motion estimate of 280/10 is based on persistence. Forecast points for a broad remnant low are provided out to 24 hours based on a blend of the GFDL and shallow BAM models.
dolphintom, i remember reading somewhere when NSMG reported their earnings are something to that extent, that snow helped them in some way to get contracts or work of some sort. Sorry, so hazy on it but i believe it was something along that line.
My last post - good night everyone
Sounds great - hope you do it moe than 1 more time this year - good luck
That is because there has not been any major hurricanes to hit where NSMG operates. To me that is a no brainer. Like i said before - if fla got hit by a cat 5 and i was loaded in NSMG I would be a big winner. This stock is a weather related stock. G
Can only post 2 more times but almost time to call it night soon.
DPDW sounds like a great stock especially with the hurricane play. I myself tend to stay from pennystocks over .10 on the buy. That is the only reason why i have not been attracted to DPDW. Good luck to all that have DPDW.
So if a cat 5 hits fla next week or next month the market will consider the season over and will not react? don't think so and i bet a lot of folks will agree with me.
Brikk, in answer to you other question i think if the buy bottoms out this week at some point yes i certainly think its a great time to buy because we are still at the 1/2 way mark of the hurricane season. That being said i would not same the same in mid oct unless i defitely knew a big was was eminent. Ideally, the best time to buy is when the stock is at its lowest around end of nov - beginning of dec. You should then buy the most you can and be patient for the winter rally and summer rally whether it is big or small your a winner. Unforunately i did not learn that lesson in time last year.
Wosill, you keep saying this late in the season - it is sept 15th. Below is a list of past hurricanes from sept to dec. This may change your mind. This is from a previous post - i think by lexi2004
Hurricane of October, 1743--A storm that affected what would become the Northeastern United States and New England, brought gusty winds and rainy conditions as far as Philadelphia, and produced flooding in Boston. Central barometric pressure of the storm was measured to be 29.35 inches of Hg in Boston. This storm, which wasn't particularly powerful, was memorable because it garnered the interest of future patriot and one of the founders of the United States, Benjamin Franklin, who believed the storm was coming in from Boston. However, it was going to Boston. Nevertheless, it began the long educational journey, which would be our understanding of hurricanes.
Great September Gale of 1815--Was the last hurricane to strike New England before the Long Island Express of 1938. The storm struck on September 23, 1815, and brought an 11 foot storm surge to Providence, which was the highest storm surge in the Rhode Island captial prior to the Great Hurricane of 1938, which had a 17.6 foot storm surge. This storm was the first hurricane to strike New England in exactly 180 years.
Hurricane of September, 1874--Struck the Carolinas around the end of September, 1874. This storm is remembered for being the first such hurricane to be shown on a weather map by the Weather Bureau. At the time it was shown, the hurricane was located off the Southeast Coast between Jacksonville, Florida and Savannah, Georgia.
Hurricane of September, 1875--Was an intense hurricane that struck the Southern Coast of Cuba as predicted by Father Benito Vines, who began to develop a tremendous reputation for accurately predicting when and where a hurricane would strike. His studies of tropical storms and hurricanes during the latter portion of the 19th Century made the Cuban forecasters some of the best hurricane forecasters in the world at the time.
Miami Hurricane of 1926--This storm hit at the worst possible time for the fledgling city. Incoporated in 1896 following the extension of the Florida East Coast Railway by Henry Flagler, the city of Miami was at the end of its first boom period early in 1926. The storm also served as a lesson for those wishing to go outside during the eye's passage. Forming a few hundred miles to the East of the Lesser Antilles on September 12th, the storm passed to the north of Puerto Rico on September 15th. Accompanied by a late issued hurricane warning, the storm arrived in Miami on the morning of September 18th. Winds peaked at 128 mph, and the pressure in Miami fell to 27.61 inches of Hg, or 935 millibars. The storm surge ranged from eight to fifteen feet, and caused $150 million dollars in damage then, or $1.7 billion today. If a similar storm hit the Miami area today, it would cause an astronomical $87 billion in damage.
Lake Okeechobee Hurricane of 1928--Carved a path of destruction throughout the Atlantic, and over the north shore of Lake Okeechobee during the period from September 6th to September 20th, 1928. This particular hurricane, which had a central pressure of 27.43 inches, was fifth all time to strike the United States in terms of intensity. It was responsible for an estimated 2,500 deaths, and some $25 million dollars in damage (equivalent to $300 million 1990 U.S. dollars). Now ranks behind Galveston as the second deadliest natural disaster in United States History.
Major Hurricane of September, 1933--1933 was a very active year for tropical storms and hurricanes with 21 named storms, and 10 of them becoming hurricanes. In addition to the Great Chesapeake Hurricane of 1933, the Mid-Atlantic was hit by another hurricane almost exactly a month to the day later when a Category Three storm emerged from a disturbance in the Bahamas, and came up the coast to make landfall at Cape Lookout, North Carolina. The storm ended up causing about a fraction of the damage caused by the Chesapeake Bay storm. Only about 2,000 telephones were knocked out by the storm, and only two people died in Virginia.
Great Hurricane of September, 1944--Is perhaps a forgotten storm in light of the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935, and the Long Island Express of 1938. However, this was a memorable storm in its own right. Cape Henry in Virginia was hit with sustained winds of 134 mph, and gusts up to 150 mph. Meanwhile, in Norfolk, winds reached close to hurricane force while gusts went up to 90 mph. The powerful storm caused tremendous damage along the coast from North Carolina to New England with some 41,000 buildings damaged, and a death toll of 390 people. The storm cost some $100 million dollars in damage including $25 million in New Jersey alone, where some 300 homes were destroyed on Long Beach Island. More detailed information on this hurricane is at Greg Hoffman's Real Lousy Weather Page.
Hurricane Easy--Developing in September, 1950, Easy was perhaps one of the worst storms to hit Cedar Key since the late 1800s. This storm, which did a loop around the West Coast of Florida twice, had maximum sustained winds of 125 mph, a minimum pressure of 28.30 inches of Hg, and brought an amazing 38.7 inches of rain over two days to Yankeetown, Florida.
Hurricane King--Another powerful storm in 1950, this particular hurricane affected the Miami area in October of that year. It was a compact, but very powerful hurricane much like Hurricane Andrew. It only carved a path of destruction some 7 to 10 miles wide, but had wind gusts as high as 150 mph, minimum pressure of 28.20 inches of Hg., and a storm surge of 19.3 feet.
Hurricane Hazel--A Category Four Hurricane that came ashore in North Carolina in October, 1954, and then brought hurricane force winds as far inland as Canada. Passing 95 miles to the East of Charleston, South Carolina, Hazel made landfall very near the North Carolina and South Carolina border, and brought a record 18 foot storm surge at Calabash, North Carolina. Wind gusts of 150 mph were felt in Holden Beach, Calabash, and Little River Inlet 100 mph gusts were felt farther inland at Virginia, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Delaware, New Jersey, and New York. Hazel carved a path of destruction that left over 600 dead, and damages exceeded $350 million 1953 U.S. dollars.
Hurricane Ione--Struck a month after Connie and Diane in September, 1955. The storm struck just west of Atlantic Beach along the North Carolina coast. This was another storm that made landfall well after it had peaked in intensity with 125 mph winds and a minimum central pressure of 27.70 inches. Nevertheless, it brought 16 inches of rainfall to parts of the Tar Heel state, and left six dead as well as $90 million in damages before curving out to sea.
Hurricane Helene--Perhaps one of the most powerful hurricanes during the 1950s not to make landfall in the Carolinas although it came very close. Helene came within 20 miles of the coast at Cape Fear on September 27, 1958. Winds still reached 135 mph at Wilmington while Southport, North Carolina had winds sustained at 125 mph with gusts between 150 and 160 mph, and a minimum central pressure of 27.75 inches.
Hurricane Carla--Struck between the Port O'Connor and Port Lavaca area of Texas back in September, 1961. It was the most powerful storm to hit the Texas Coast in about 40 years. It winds were in excess of 150 mph, and gusts went up to 170 mph. Tides near Port Lavaca were 18.5 feet above normal, and the barometric pressure was 27.62 inches of Hg. Estimated damage from the storm was $408 million dollars while the death toll hit 43. Today, the cost would have been far greater.
Hurricane Hattie--Struck the then coastal capital of Belize, Belize City on Halloween in 1961. Hattie was the second or two Category Five Hurricanes from that season. Leaving some 275 people dead and some $60 million dollars in damage, Hattie devastated the Belize capital forcing government officials to move government offices and buildings inland to the city of Belmopan.
Hurricane Dora--Within a few weeks after Cleo in September, 1964, this hurricane hit the Northeastern coast of Florida at a right angle. It was the first storm ever to do this since the Great Hurricane of 1880. Dora had winds of 125 mph at St. Augustine, and produced a 12 foot storm surge.
Hurricane Betsy--A Category Three Hurricane that struck South Florida and Louisiana in September, 1965. It would be the last major hurricane to affect South Florida until Hurricane Andrew in 1992.
Hurricane Inez--Known as "The Crazy One," Inez carved an erratic path of death and destruction from the Caribbean to Florida, and to Mexico in October, 1966. It left some 1,500 people dead, and produced millions of dollars in damage with top winds of approximately 190 mph. Minimum central pressure with Inez was recorded at 27.38 inches of Hg, which according to the Saffir-Simpson scale that came out into 1970, was equivalent to a Category Four Hurricane.
Hurricane Eloise--A powerful hurricane that formed in September, 1975, Eloise was a Category Three Hurricane with sustained winds of 125 mph, and gusts of up to 156 mph. It produced a 12 to 16 foot storm surge along the Florida Coast from Ft. Walton Beach to Panama City, Florida. With a minimum central pressure of 28.20 inches, Eloise was the first major hurricane to make a direct hit on this area in the 20th century, and caused some $1 billion dollars in damage as well as 21 deaths.
Hurricane Elena--A very fickle storm, Elena stayed away from land in the Gulf of Mexico for about a week as upper level winds broke down above the storm. As a result, it grew from a Category One to a Category Three Hurricane with 125 mph as it came ashore in Biloxi, Mississippi in September, 1985. Estimated damage as a result of this storm was $1.25 billion dollars.
Hurricane Gloria--Termed the Storm Of The Century at one point in its life. This Category Three Hurricane made landfall over the outer banks of North Carolina, and then moved up the East Coast of the United States on September 27, 1985. Estimated damage from this storm was $900 million dollars.
Hurricane Kate--An unusually strong late season hurricane, Kate was a Category Two Hurricane that struck the Port St. Joe area of the Florida Panhandle in ****November,** 1985. It was the latest hurricane ever recorded in a season to strike that far north in Florida. It ended up causing some $300 million dollars in damage.
Hurricane Hugo--This Category Four Hurricane at landfall, carved a path from the Leeward Islands in the Caribbean to Charleston, South Carolina in September, 1989. At one point in its lifetime, Hugo reached Category Five intensity with 160 mph winds, and a minimum central pressure of 27.11 inches of Hg. Rapidly intensifying over the Gulf Stream, it came ashore in South Carolina with 135 mph winds. This storm ranks currently second all time in terms of estimated damage at $7 billion dollars.
Hurricane Grace--Contrary to what was said in the movie, The Perfect Storm, Grace was only a Category Two Hurricane, but it would combine with a mid-latitude cyclone to form what would be known as the "Perfect Storm" in Meteorological terms during the final days of October, 1991.
Hurricane Gordon--One of the most erratic moving hurricanes, and still one of the most deadly in the last 20 years. Starting out in the Western Caribbean off the coast of Honduras and Nicaragua, Gordon weaved his way through the Caribbean and Florida before making its first landfall along the Outer Banks of North Carolina. It then turned southwestward again, and moved over Florida, where it finally dissipated. The storm left some $400 million dollars in damage, and 1145 people dead in ***November, 1994.**
Hurricane Luis--One of the most powerful hurricanes of the 19 storms from the 1995 Season. Pummeled the Leeward Islands as well as parts of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands with 150 mph winds before turning out to sea in September, 1995. Caused approximately $2.5 billion dollars in damage and killed 17 people.
Hurricane Marilyn--Formed on the heels of Hurricane Luis in the Western Atlantic back in September, 1995, and brought Category Three Hurricane force winds to parts of the Leeward Islands and the Virgin Islands before turning out to sea. Caused approximately $1.5 billion dollars in damage, and left 8 people dead.
Hurricane Opal--This late season storm rapidly developed into a very strong Category Four Hurricane before weakening to a strong Category Three Hurricane when it came ashore near Pensacola, Florida in ***October,*** 1995. Opal ranks fifth all time in terms of damage with an estimated $3 billion dollars.
Hurricane Fran--The most powerful hurricane to make landfall in the United States during the 1996 Hurricane Season. Made landfall over North Carolina with 115 mph winds in September of that year, and caused some $3.2 billion dollars in damage at the time. Damage estimates are even higher today.
Hurricane Georges--A Classic Cape Verde Hurricane that formed in September, 1998, Georges ripped through the Leeward Islands and Caribbean with as high as 150 mph winds. It then hit the Florida Keys before making landfall in Mississippi. Left 602 people dead, and caused about $5.9 billion dollars in damage.
Hurricane Mitch--A very powerful late season hurricane, Mitch had winds of 190 mph before making landfall in Central America. It devastated Honduras with over 75 inches of rain that spawned devastating floods and mudslides that left about 11,000 people dead in ***October,*** 1999.
**September***Hurricane Floyd--Also termed Storm of the Century at one point, Floyd caused the largest peacetime evacuation in history that involved 3,000,000 people from South Florida to Cape Hatteras, North Carolina as it bore down on the Southeast coast in September, 1999. It later made landfall as a Category Three Hurricane over North Carolina, and would bring up to 30 inches of rain from North Carolina to New Jersey spawning terrible floods. Floyd ranks third all time in damage with an estimated $4.5 billion dollars in damage althogh some estimates run as high as $6 billion.
***October**Hurricane Irene--Is an often forgotten storm from the 1999 Hurricane Season except for those in Florida. Forming during the middle of October that year, Irene became a Category Two Hurricane with 100 mph sustained winds, and higher gusts. The storm also produced some 10 to 20 inches of rain across South Florida while causing 8 deaths by electrocution, and $800 million dollars in damage.
***November***Hurricane Lenny--Known by those in the Caribbean as "El Zorito", or "the Lefty", Lenny was the first ever storm on record to strike the Lesser Antilles from the West in November, 1999. It was also the most powerful late-season storm on record with 150 mph winds. The storm was responsible for approximately $330 million dollars in damage.
***October*****Hurricane Keith--Powerful Category Four Hurricane that struck the Central American country of Belize in the first week of October, 2000. Making landfall near the area of Belize City, the storm caused some two million dollars in damage, and left 11 people dead.
*******October***Tropical Storm Leslie--Started out as a subtropical depression in the Florida Straits, and brought some 15 to 20 inches of rain to parts of South Florida. Caused about 1,000,000 dollars in damage, and killed two people. After flooding South Florida, it gained more tropical characteristics, and became a minimal tropical storm in October, 2000.
*****October*********Hurricane Michael--Formed in the Western Atlantic in the last weeks of October, 2000, and eventually headed northward into the Canadian Maritimes, where it brought 100 mph winds to parts of Newfoundland in Canada.
***October****Hurricane Iris--A very small and narrow hurricane that brought 145 mph winds to the central portion of Belize in October, 2001. The storm left some 28 people dead including tourists from Virginia, and caused millions of dollars in damage.
****November**Hurricane Michelle--A powerful late season hurricane, Michelle brought 135 mph winds to portions of Western Cuba and the Isle of Youth before turning east and avoiding South Florida by going out to sea in November, 2001.
***September**Hurricane Isidore--A powerful Category Three Hurricane that originally developed in the Caribbean, Isidore made landfall over the Yucatan Peninsula with 125 mph, but only made landfall over Louisiana as a tropical storm in September, 2002.
***October***Hurricane Lili--Another powerful hurricane that formed in the Caribbean on the heels of Isidore, Lili grew to Category Four Strength with 140 mph winds. Threatening Louisiana as a major hurricane, Lili encountered hostile upper level conditions just before landfall, and weakened to just a Category Two Hurricane when it came ashore over Louisiana in October, 2002.
***Sept****Hurricane Fabian--A hurricane that last for about a week, and a tropical system that lasted for nearly two weeks, Fabian was a Category Four Hurricane at one point with winds of 145 mph in September, 2003. Responsible for eight deaths and $300 million dollars in damage, Fabian went down as the worst hurricane to strike the tiny resort island of Bermuda since 1926.
Hurricane Charley--When it was all said and done, Hurricane Charley went down as the most devastating hurricane to hit anywhere in Florida since Hurricane Andrew in August, 1992. It also ended up being the second costliest hurricane in U.S. History behind Andrew. *********************Charley fooled forecasters by not only rapidly intensifiying, but also making a turn to the north and east much sooner than anticipated,**************shows unpredictable behavior of hurricanes******** which spared the city of Tampa, but devastated the Port Charlotte area on August 13, 2004. Winds were as high as 145 mph, and the storm left at least 35 people dead, and $14 billion dollars in damage.
Hurricane Ivan--A classic Cape Verde storm that formed at unusually low latitude, Ivan rapidly developed into a Category Four Hurricane during the Labor Day Weekend of 2004 before briefly weakening to a Category Two for a period. However, as it moved through the extreme Southern Windward Islands of Barbados and Grenada, the storm strengthened back to major hurricane status, and destroyed 75 to 90 percent of all buildings on the island of Grenada. The storm then continued to re-energize, and reach Category Five status. It was the second Category Five storm in as many years after almost a five year drought following Mitch in **********October,******* 1998. It would eventually weaken somewhat, but it still made landfall near Gulf Shores, Alabama as a strong Category Three Hurricane with 130 mph winds. Moving farther inland, Ivan's remains sparked torrential rains, flooding, and 123 tornadoes, which is second to Hurricane Beulah's 150 in 1967. Ivan was responsible for some 124 deaths throughout the Caribbean and the Eastern United States. Final damage estimate from not only the U.S., but also the Caribbean totals $14.2 billion dollars.
***Sept****Hurricane Jeanne--Originally not a powerful storm, Jeanne carved a path of death and destruction from Puerto Rico into Hispanola with 80 mph winds and heavy rains in September, 2004. The torrential rainfall produced floods and mudslides in Haiti, which left an estimated 1500 people dead in addition to 31 that were killed in Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The storm has also been known for its erratic motion taking an eastward turn away from the United States after going through the Bahamas, and then turning southward, and westward back toward land. Jeanne finally made landfall in the United States along the South Central Coast of Florida near Stuart with winds of 120 mph. It was the fifth storm, fourth hurricane, and third major hurricane to impact the Sunshine State in 2004. After impacting Florida, the storm spread northward into the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast, where it produced flooding rains and tornadoes. Total death toll was estimated to be over 3,000, and the final damage total is estimated to be $6.9 billion..
***Sept*****Hurricane Rita--The seventeenth named storm and fifth major hurricane of the 2005 season, Rita began near the Turks and Caicos Islands as a mere tropical depression on September 17th, 2005. However, as it passed near the Florida Keys and South Florida, Rita blossomed into the season's ninth hurricane, and brought sustained winds of Category Two strength with gusts over 100 mph. Continuing to strengthen, Hurricane Rita became a major hurricane on September 21st, 2005 as its eye experienced a 77 millibar drop in just 39 hours. The storm, which followed a similar track to the devastating Hurricane Katrina, which struck New Orleans and the Mississippi Gulf Coast on August 29th, 2005, became the third Category Five Hurricane to emerge in 2005 with 175 mph winds, and a minimum central pressure of 897 mb, or 26.49 inches of Hg. Hurricane Hunters also found wind gusts as high as 235 mph. With those statistics, Rita is not only the most powerful hurricane of 2005 so far, but it is also now third on the all time list ahead of Katrina and Hurricane Allen, and behind only Hurricane Gilbert (1988) and the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935. The approach of Rita to the Western Gulf Coast, prompted the evacuation of some 2.7 million people. Poor planning led to traffic jams and cars running out of gas in Texas. A usual four hour trip from Houston to Dallas ended up taking as long as 18 hours. Prior to making landfall, the storm had already caused problems including the deaths of 107 people trying to flee the storm, flooding in Galveston, and breeches in the New Orleans levee system that was severely damaged by Hurricane Katrina a month earlier. Twenty-four of those people that died during evacuation were in a bus that had a fire and explosion on Interstate 45 south of Dallas, Texas, Rita finally made landfall in the Sabine Pass area of the Texas/Louisiana border in the early morning hours of September 24th, 2005 bringing with it wind gusts as high as 111 mph in Cameron, Louisiana, and heavy damage in Lake Charles and Vermillion Parish. Approximately 1.1 million people were initialy without power in Texas and Louisiana. Damage estimates from the storm are currently $6 billion dollars, and 54 people were directly killed by the storm including five who lost their lives in an Apartment Complex in Beaumont, Texas, a man, who lost his life when a tornado struck in Northern Mississippi, and an East Texas man, who died at the hands of a fallen tree.
***Oct**********Hurricane Vince--Well...Ok, you probably think that this storm was nothing special, but it actually was for several reasons. Forming in the second full week of October, 2005, Vince not only became the 20th named storm and 11th hurricane of the busy 2005 season, but it also marked the first time since the naming of storms began in 1950, that a season reached the "V" named storm. The previous mark was set in 1995 when that season reached the "T" named storm. It also set history in a couple more ways as well. Forming in the vicinity of the Madiera Islands in the Northeastern Atlantic, Hurricane Vince was the first hurricane on record to form in this region. In addition, Vince became the first tropical cyclone of any kind to make landfall in Spain as it made landfall in the Southwestern portion of the Western European country near Huelva on October 11, 2005 as a tropical depression with 35 mph winds and a minimum central pressure of 1002 mb, or 29.59 inches.
*******October*****Hurricane Wilma--There is no question about this one being on the list. Wilma started out modestly as the 24th depression of the 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season on Saturday, October 15th, and battled some ups and downs that weekend, but over time the storm would become a monster. In a span of 36 hours from Tuesday morning, October 18th to Wednesday afternoon, October 19th, the barometric pressure in the storm dropped some 102 mb to an all time low for pressure in the Atlantic Basin of 882 mb, or 26.05 inches of Hg. Maximum sustained winds increased to 175 mph. Wilma is now the strongest storm all time in the Atlantic surpassing the mark set by Hurricane Gilbert in 1988 (888 mb). It also was the 21st named storm, 12th hurricane, and 6th major hurricane of 2005, which equaled marks for storms in 1933 and hurricanes in 1969. Wilma was the fourth Category Five Hurricane to form in the season as well joining Katrina and Rita, which are also among the five or six strongest storms on record. After reaching its peak, Wilma gradually decreased in intensity to a strong Category Four with 140 mph before making its first landfall over Cozumel, Mexico on Friday, October 21, 2005. Six hours later on Friday night, Wilma slowly moved over the Yucatan as it made a second landfall in Cancun. After bringing hurricane force winds to the Yucatan for over 24 hours, the storm gradually departed, and moved out over the Southern Gulf of Mexico, where it was picked up by a trough over the Eastern United States, and carried across Florida. Moving as fast as 25 miles per hour to the Northeast, Wilma made a third landfall over Cape Romano, Florida some 22 miles to the south of Naples, and brought with it winds of Category Three strength at 125 mph. Wilma had a devastating effect on much of the East Coast of South Florida including Fort Lauderdale, which experienced its worst hurricane in 55 years. Nearby in Key Biscayne wind gusts were as high as 116 mph while they were 95 at Opa Locka Airport outside Miami. Between three and six million people were left without power in the hours after the storm. Waves as high as 45 feet came over the sea wall, and battered the capital of Havana in Cuba. Swells as high as 50 feet were also reported. The storm has already killed some 48 people in Florida (31 deaths), Mexico and throughout the Caribbean including places as far away as Haiti. Initial damage estimates are said to be $10 billion dollars.
****Oct******Hurricane Beta--Like Alpha, Beta is an historic storm for different reasons. Only a Category One Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on October 28th, 2005, Beta originally developed in the extreme Southwestern Caribbean on October 26th, 2005. It became the 23rd named storm of the season, and then strengthened to the 13th hurricane of the season as well. With winds of 90 mph, and a minimum central pressure of 28.79 inches of Hg, Beta became a record breaking hurricane by placing 2005 in the history books again with the most hurricanes in a season. 2005 broke the previous mark set in 1969 with 12 hurricanes. On the morning of October 29th, Beta strengthened to its peak intensity as a major hurricane with 115 mph winds and a minimum central pressure of 28.35 inches of Hg. making it the seventh major hurricane of the 2005 season. That tied the season for second all time for most major hurricanes with 1961, which also had seven major storms. 1950 had the most major hurricanes with eight. The storm would finally make landfall in Nicaragua some 50 miles to the north of Bluefields on October 29th.
Brikk, only from a business perspective. I am a computer programmer but i admit i have take a simplistic approach which makes sense to me. The actual art of buy and selling might be much more complex than i realize - the fundamentals that you speak of. However, i think hurricane stocks are in a class of their own and are really based much more of the weather conditions that affect them more than anything else. I am also willing to learn anything that will broaden my understanding of when and what of buying and selling.
but if your in and just a cat2 or higher heading toward fla or lousiana will drive the stock up and that much higher if it hits. Historically, the season is far from over but it has been a disappointing one so far. To jump into DPDW at .75 share now compared to jumping in NSMG at .05 i would take the latter. I was curious why others would jump into DPDW at this stage and think they will come out ahead.
but that holds true for any stock whether is $10,000 or $1,000
Assuming NSMG will have a buy this week of .05. Last weeks low but was .059
DPDW if i bought $10,000 at .75 share = 13333 shares.
NSMG if i bought $10,000 at .05 share = 200,000 shares
If nsmg goes up 2 cents to .07 a share i'm up $4,000.
DPDW has to go up .30 cents to $1.05 to be up $4,000
To me NSMG is the much better play
Wait 24-48 hrs. Ingrid could stregthen or dissapate
Latest 5 pm from weather undergound
After becoming a little better organized this morning...the
satellite presentation of Ingrid has again deteriorated. The cloud pattern has become quite ragged...deep convection is limited...and the low cloud lines depicting the circulation have become indistinct. Moreover...a number of arc clouds...implying low-level divergence...are seen emanating from the western portion of the system. The intensity is kept at 30 kt in accordance with the TAFB Dvorak estimate. Westerly shear is forecast to remain rather strong for the next day or so...which makes significant intensification unlikely in the short term. Indeed if the current
disorganizing trend continues...Ingrid will weaken. However some of the global models forecast a slightly more favorable upper-level flow to evolve later in the forecast period. Therefore...if Ingrid survives for the next couple of days...it could begin to restrengthen in 3-4 days. The official intensity forecast allows for this possibility...and is slightly below the latest lgem and HWRF guidance at that time frame. Alternatively the GFDL now dissipates the cyclone within 36 hours.
Since we are quoting the weather experts who have the latest statistics in hand i do not see any hidden agenda here.
11am update:ingrid - upgraded to tropical storm after next 48 hrs?
690
WTNT43 KNHC 161434
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
1100 AM EDT SUN SEP 16 2007
INGRID IS MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY DESPITE THE HOSTILE UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW. IN FACT...THE APPEARANCE OF THE SYSTEM IS LESS DISORGANIZED
THAN IT WAS 24 HOURS AGO...WITH THE CENTER NO LONGER EXPOSED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 30 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH A DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB. ACCORDING TO THELATEST GFS RUN...VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE 20 KTFOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS WOULD SEEM TO PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANTRE-STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HOWEVER THE CONSENSUS OF SHIPS...THE GFDL...AND THE HWRF MODEL INDICATES THAT INGRID WILL EVENTUALLY REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO BECOME LESS HOSTILE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR THE SAKE OF CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS THAT INDICATED DISSIPATION BY DAY 5...THE CURRENT NHC INTENSITY FORECAST MERELY MAINTAINS INGRID AT ITS CURRENT STRENGTH. HOWEVER THE NEXT NHC ADVISORY PACKAGE MAY NEED TO SHOW SOME RESTRENGTHENING.
ingrid - very interesting scenarios
from weather crown
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH INGRID PERSISTS BUT LACKS ORGANIZATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS CONSISTENT WITH LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES AND THE 22Z QUIKSCAT PASS. THE CURRENT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO PERSIST...AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS...AND INGRID COULD DEGENERATE TO A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW OR DISSIPATE DURING THAT TIME...AS FORECAST BY THE GFDL. THIS IS THE SCENARIO FAVORED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. HOWEVER...IF INGRID SURVIVES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND IT DOES HAVE A LARGE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE...A WEAKER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AT THAT TIME WOULD FAVOR RESTRENGTHENING. THIS ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE
Florida or gulf - Rhino posted this on hurricane board
It looks like the next potential development is in the far southwest Caribbean. NAM has it heading straight north through Cuba towards Florida. It could turn left into the U.S. Gulf Coast. Any impact on the U.S. is probably a week away.
The lack of any potential now from Ingrid may cause more of a sell-off of the pure plays Monday, which may create a nice buying opportunity if this next storm materializes.
Rhino
Lexi - teacher in Middle School that taught stocks - i'm impressed. Will pass on web pages to my son and i will certainly check them out myself. Thanks for taking the time to share - will follow up as needed.