National Storm Management Inc (NSMG)

[Manchild1]

possible hurricane - nuw orleans - hurricane,track thinks so

UPDATED: 8:30 am EDT, September 19, 2007
COMPLEX WEATHER AHEAD FOR GULF OF MEXICO BUT FIRST, FLORIDA GETS SOME RAIN AND WIND

I have to say, this developing storm progged for the Gulf of Mexico is very complex. While there is little doubt in my mind that we will see something develop, there is doubt as to how strong, how well organized, how tropical and where. Most of the models show a weak low pressure area crossing Florida later today and through tomorrow. Then, once in the eastern Gulf, it takes off. The latest GFDL model shows a possible hurricane heading right for New Orleans in less than three days. An earlier run of the SHIPS intensity model also suggested hurricane intensity at some point. There are a lot of variables here and until we see a well defined surface low over the eastern Gulf, it is hard to know what the reality might be. We certainly don't want to see anything near hurricane strength in Mississippi or Louisiana- especially SE Louisiana. It may be another 24 hours before we know enough to get a clearer picture of what is actually developing. For what it's worth, other models show this heading towards Texas still, so indeed we do have a complex mess to deal with.

Before any of this Gulf business gets going, Florida will receive much needed rain in many areas. Most of it is confined to the central to northern part of the state this morning. Hopefully the rain will spread across south Florida as the low tracks westward later- there are plenty of lakes that could use a good soaking. Keep in mind too that winds will be brisk at times along the Florida east coast today as the low develops and moves slowly westward.