National Storm Management Inc (NSMG)

[Manchild1]

11am update:ingrid - upgraded to tropical storm after next 48 hrs?

690
WTNT43 KNHC 161434
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
1100 AM EDT SUN SEP 16 2007

INGRID IS MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY DESPITE THE HOSTILE UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW. IN FACT...THE APPEARANCE OF THE SYSTEM IS LESS DISORGANIZED
THAN IT WAS 24 HOURS AGO...WITH THE CENTER NO LONGER EXPOSED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 30 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH A DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB. ACCORDING TO THELATEST GFS RUN...VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE 20 KTFOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS WOULD SEEM TO PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANTRE-STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HOWEVER THE CONSENSUS OF SHIPS...THE GFDL...AND THE HWRF MODEL INDICATES THAT INGRID WILL EVENTUALLY REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO BECOME LESS HOSTILE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR THE SAKE OF CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS THAT INDICATED DISSIPATION BY DAY 5...THE CURRENT NHC INTENSITY FORECAST MERELY MAINTAINS INGRID AT ITS CURRENT STRENGTH. HOWEVER THE NEXT NHC ADVISORY PACKAGE MAY NEED TO SHOW SOME RESTRENGTHENING.