National Storm Management Inc (NSMG)

[Manchild1]

ingrid - very interesting scenarios

from weather crown

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH INGRID PERSISTS BUT LACKS ORGANIZATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS CONSISTENT WITH LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES AND THE 22Z QUIKSCAT PASS. THE CURRENT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO PERSIST...AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS...AND INGRID COULD DEGENERATE TO A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW OR DISSIPATE DURING THAT TIME...AS FORECAST BY THE GFDL. THIS IS THE SCENARIO FAVORED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. HOWEVER...IF INGRID SURVIVES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND IT DOES HAVE A LARGE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE...A WEAKER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AT THAT TIME WOULD FAVOR RESTRENGTHENING. THIS ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE