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CYBERWAR - Cover of the current issue of the The Economist
Geometrically growing awareness from all corners. The NSA's HAP program is the national plan that highlights SEDs, TPMs, trusted computing and hardware-based security. The urgency is now on red.
It's right here, it's right now, the fog of uncertainty has lifted.
Adding a bit more color to the cyber defense con fab.
more on cyber defense worries
Take a look at the '10 worst moments' link. What would you add?
Gaming and the cloud . .
Here, now.
otoy - a Gilder favorite
Dell gets in the game
About the patents -
Upon listening to SKS's statement, I thought it was a defensive measure as much as anything. He alluded that Wave would not particularly want some other entity / competitor to own them. Winmagic might want these patents in order to make the use of SEDs very, very expensive. The high enforcement of patents with high royalties can kill a technology or prevent it's wide-spread use.
That said, I think they are covering legacy hardware if they are specific to HDDs. The world is moving to solid state storage.
HP not in Detroit -
Some of you may recall that GM bought EDS and as a result inherited Ross Perot as a board member. You might remember the ensuing fireworks. Following the bread crumbs leads to HP - HP bought EDS in 2008. Assuming that EDS has residual business with GM, I considered HP (via EDS) may have been the provider of the SED equipped laptops to GM. This would explain the warming HP-Wave relationship. However, my sources were pointing to Dell as the primary provider of laptops to GM.
There are no HP customer support personnel listed in the Detroit area which would confirm the Dell-GM relationship. It also implies that the HP business is new and growing and not related to the automotive deal in Detroit. This is good. It also implies that Dell is providing the value-added consulting and problem-solving that led GM to the SED solution. This is also good.
TPM's backdoor . . . .
There is none. But that does not mean that any ole' body can sew up their plots of treason, terror and various usundry of debauched activities with a TPM with nary a concern that it can never be accessed without consent or key. They would be wrong and so would you. Obviously, the NSA, the FBI, ect would never agree to the wide-spread use of such a technology. But how to create secure crypto for government and enterprise and still have a means of breaking it when it's really, really needed. For the solution, look no further than Essex corporation, now deep within the bowels of Northrup Grumman.
Northrop-Grumman buys Essex
Many of the details of Essex's technology are classified, but I have heard the founder and premier optical genius Terry Turpin speak. Much of Essex's technology was focused on the telecomunications industry with a strong emphesis on optical processing. Terry explained that Essex's optical processing could make an intractable problem using only electronic processing (ie CPUs) become tractible. It was able, he said, to eliminate 'false positives'. So, what might take years for traditional brute force techniques, could be reduced to weeks, days , even hours when pre-processed using optical processing. Optical processing does not actually brute force the cryto-key but makes the problem tractible for an electronic-based approach.
Where is Terry Turpin now you might ask. Light Wave Logic is where.
Lightwave Logic
The Chinese have their own specifications -
- call it the big, easy back door. Let's just hope we never see the head line that the DoD bought thousands of them on sale.
This Gallagher fellow from Bayshore Home Health completely ignores Seagate, Samsung, Toshiba, and Hitachi SEDs, that completely obviate the need for the mojo of WM. There has to be a family connection to WinMagic or they gave them the software in leu of PR or something. This guy sounds like he's PRing for his vendor. Wierd - there is something underneath this.
PR's are usually something like 'We are pleased to select WM. WM will make us more competitive in the market place and help us ensure the privacy of our lovely customers. They are proven leaders and are a great match for our wonderful company ect ect.'
Instead, he states the defensive talking points of WinMagic's marketing department. - That's weird.
I tried it - It was you on the photo.
Not an issue -
Wave simply does not have permission yet to publicly announce the deal. I can understand that - GM does not want their account to become a public marketing tool ahead of a successful installation. It will be publicly stated when everything is installed, tested and found satisfactory. This is the appropriate path for all parties.
Suppliers of large companies jump through hoops for their customer - it's a requirement of doing business with them. So, to do business with GM say, you need access to design information for new models, inventory information ect, - you need to access their network. When GM adopts the SEP model, the supplier will be required to own TPM-enabled machines and register with GM's ERAS. This forces the supplier to own, operate and manage their own SEPs. The supplier, in turn, finds this to be an excellent business model. It rapidly gets adopted throughout the industry as a Good Manufacturing Practice (GMP).
You say, 'not likely'. Well, every supplier today who enters any manufacturing facility as a qualified vendor is required to do site-specific safety training, carry large insurance umbrellas, demonstrate adherence to GMPs and regulatory compliance. The new 'compliance' is rapidly becoming secure access and secure data.
This will also be particularly true of first tier DoD vendors, who will in turn, push the model to second and third tier suppliers.
Game - Set - Match.
Agreed - I would be no less than shocked to hear of a problem. SED management is the gateway for managed secure end points (SEPs) Once the customer is familiar and confident with the SED piece, the end point piece will follow.
Managed SEDs and managed SEPs is business model. It implies the dealership network and the primary suppliers. Companies like GM tend to push their business models and requirements of 'doing business' to their tertiary suppliers and sales channels.
My point is, this does not stop with GM, it implies their entire 'ecosystem'.
The execution of the GM deployment is the most important piece of information I could identify in the near term for Wave. Any news on this is critical information.
Extremely important this deployment went off without a hitch. Many eyes on it - a screw-up could blow not only this account but many, many others.
I shouldn't answer for Weby . . . I believe he was referring to current known revenue sources that would support $6. It does not take into account new customers, bundling deals and the like. But, he could tell you better than I.
ADM was previously referred to by Steven in a recent presentation and alerted here. Hope it did not catch anyone by surprise. ADM is a 19B company.
I am in Haiti currently amidst indescribable destruction. I am focused here and was unable to hear the CC.
SKS says many things and must be closely parsed to separate fact from allusion. The facts and the allusions are converging.
I have increased my position several fold relative to the beginning of 2010. Modest, of course, is a relative term.
Gilder conferences are great mixers. They unfold over 2 or 3 days and you get to have breakfast, lunch and dinner with everyone there. There is a sense that you have an opportunity to know the real people who run the companies you invest in. It's a unique thing. Much gets communicated both intentional and unintentional that can be very insightful.
I have dined with SKS, sat next to him at the conference table there. He is bright, engaging and likable. Face time with SKS, when he is in his zone, telling the Wave story that goes deep and wide, with stories ranging across the technology whos who spectrum; is intoxicating. You take the cup and drink the kool aid. The next morning you get up and tell yourself, it really can't be happening that way.
Part of me says 'what a bunch of hot air'. For ten years this guy has deluded both himself and others into believing this company is sitting on the next Qualcomm of technological ascendancy. He alludes to the big companies trialing his products, his partnerships with government, military and the biggest leaders in the business (ie Intel, Seagate, Dell ect). You look at how the company has performed over the past ten years and I resonate with go-kites' outsized portion of skepticism. Then SKS shows up on youtube with Intel. He is indeed partnered with Seagate, Toshiba and HP and consulting with DoD and signing up GM and I'm back to drinking the Kool-aid.
But, along with go-kite, I have demanded revenue before I increase my investment in this company beyond something modest. I did not care how tall the SKS tale was nor how compelling - no new investment until he demonstrates that this company can sell something to someone besides a bundler. Anyone who has followed this story has yearned for the one essential, but missing piece - broad, deep and unqualified adoption. Adoption by industry, adoption by military, adoption by mobil, adoption by consumer (ala Barge) adoption by fellow members of the TCG. Up until recently that piece was still missing. The global auto supplier was the announcement that changed the no-adoption story and suspecting SKS of one the biggest wind bags ever to speak, to 'he might be a bit conservative'. I believe this is what the market has also reacted to - imminent, broad adoption is at hand.
All this to say there is no new News. But who needs more news when all that has been studied, researched and told here is no longer something only hoped for.
Michigan State Medical Society (MSMS) Link to MSMS is not directly related to Michigan State University (MSU) who is listed on slide #16 in the presentation.
We did meet there and I can say it was my pleasure. I have appreciated your digging and hard work that you have always freely shared with the many here. Well done.
GM is the Automotive company - take it to the bank. If you want to believe it's Ford - be my guest - it does not really matter. According to SKS, it's all about ADOPTION. 3%, 4% - 15% that's the established pattern for software. GM (or Ford if you prefer) is incredibly telling as an early adopter. GM gives some who might be interested parties in the Gov't, a real-life large deployment of managed SED's. You could not ask for a better high-profile test bed in the public sector. There's more to come - take ti to the bank.
Archer Midland Daniels, a$19B company, was referred to by SKS in hIs last presentation. He referenced them as an example of the kind of customer that they get revenue from, but that it comes via Dell as a channel partner. It's in the Q&A . ADM is not listed on the customer screen (#16). It leads me to believe that we really don't know the revenue flow into Wave from channel partners. Is there a way to measure income from seats sold by channel partners?
Finally, I've been invested in this company for many years. The DD here is some of the best and most focused of anywhere - I've had little to contribute. The time I have been waiting for in regard to this company is at hand. The charts have no clue what customer or what customers will be announced yet this week let alone this month or this quarter. Throw away your earnings estimates - you don't know. Stop studying charts - they can't tell you who is has transitioned from trial to large implementation worth millions. The ramp has begun.
sd
Initiative #1- not so Huge. TIC, apparently, does not imply trusted computing concepts as I understand them in the context of Wave. This does not lesson the momentum toward adoption, but by itself, does not mean much for advancing the implementation of secured end points via TPMs. My previous post was abit ado about nothing.
White House initiative #1 - Manage the Federal Enterprise Network as a single network enterprise with Trusted Internet Connections.
And #12 pushes into the private sector.
Congratulations - The nearly unbelievable perseverance of some of you is about to be highly rewarded.
Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) was mentioned by SKS in the Q&A. Have they been listed as a customer or have they been mentioned before?
Does anyone think he was referring to them as an example only or was he referring to them as a customer? ADM is a $19B company.
Kalamazoo - sounds like fun. I'm off to Haiti next week on relief effort. We'll have to talk after I return.
I have considered the Gov't take-over as an influence on the move, however, I have rejected that line of reason. A decision of that magnitude has to be trialed for a length of time before it goes company-wide. It had to have been in the trial stage before the Gov't take-over. The Gov't would not move that quickly any way on a relatively new 'acquisition' - too many other considerations before SEDs hit the radar screen.
SKS has talked about the 'Who's Who' list of companys who are in trials. I believe GM was on that list. It is a considerable harbinger of what's coming.
I thought it was fairly common knowledge. I live in Michigan, the beleaguered headquarters of GM. Many people here are connected there. It may have come to me that way. Wave is also a topic on the Gilder board. Could have been there as well.
General Motors is the large global manufacturer. Has that been identified here? I don't remember seeing that posted, I may have missed it.
A General Dynamics - Wave relationship appears to be in place, although I have not seen anything formal. the Wave-GD connection. You all will also recall this the Itronix from GD (under the SECURITY heading)
Has any formal relationship (ie Northrop-Grumman) ever been announced?
Barge - I read this board frequently but post about once a year. That said, I will be attending Gilder_Forbes conference Telecosm, which is focused on Gilder's new book. It happens I will be ordering a copy today. S Sprague will be there too and available for breakfast, lunch, or dinner. If you want to have face time with SKS, that is the place to do it. George Gilder is also totally accessible there. I'd be happy to ask any questions. I have to carefully parse Steven's conversation to glean actionable information.
His comprehension of the industry and insights into what is happening and what may be about to happen can be intoxicating. When he's done with you- your ready to mortgage property to own a big piece of the action. It's usually good to get a nights sleep after conversation when temperance, sobriety and reason have reappeared.
For more info on Telecosm: http://www.gildertech.com/Telecosm2009/
PS - appreciate your exuberance.
Re Aberdeen -
They appear to be a competent and well run service provider to technology companies needing to communicate a message. My purpose was to disabuse them as an objective and disinterested third party observing a significant trend in industry. Otherwise, they appear to provide an excellent professional service.
Thanks for disclosing your knowledge of their history, It's uh, hum - helpful.
Who is Aberdeen Group you ask?
From their Mission Statement . . .
Aberdeen’s portfolio of fact-based research services solves the four (4) key problems of the Chief Marketing Officer of Technology Providers as they build their go-to-market strategies and campaigns. Aberdeen understands that CMOs today expend most of their entire marketing budget to:
* Build Market Awareness & Educate Prospects
* Generate Demand to Fill the Pipeline
* Arm the Sales Force to Eliminate “No Decision”
* Benchmark Clients to Prove Delivered Value
How We Do It . . . .
Looks like Wave is their client
http://www.aberdeen.com/about_us/
What was the mpeg2 patent Wavexpress has applied for / owns? Thanks in advance for any help.
I am researching the Sigma Designs (SIGM) connection. SIGM is seriously ramping and Wavexpress may have a real opportunity to piggy back in the exploding IPTV market.
Yikes - http://tinyurl.com/2v8yda
Military and FDE.2 - Sam indicated that his view was military adoption had a long cycle and that it would be unlikely to see a volume order for some time - on the order of a 2010 time frame. The DD on this board could have plausible insight that may contradict his view.
Sam gave the impression that to him (ie Seagate), the military is a specialized niche with unique requirements and does not represent the broad global cookie-cutter style product opportunity he designed FDE.2 to reach. You think about things differently when you think in terms of 10s of millions units.
Seagate is behind the FDE2. product. They are aggressively promoting it. Sam, the project leader, will be at every joint seminar. Dell is pushing the 'advanced security' option on their platform. Someone, somewhere will deploy it. It is very early in the roll-out to determine success or failure. I own Wave and still think it's got a better than even chance of succeeding. Wave needs a couple of thumbs-up on deployment and they are on their way.
Seagate has plans to roll out more FDE products including Barracuda. If Wave gets even a small piece of the Seagate pie - they succeed. There's just nothing to sink your teeth into at the moment save for a sparsely attended seminar.
I will lift up my eyes to the mountains;
From where shall my help come? Ps 121:1
The Sheraton is located a block or so off downtown Chicago's 'magnificent mile'. The Chicago river runs past it with an unnatural blue-green iridescence while upriver the new Trump Tower is is getting the remaining glass panes installed in its upper floors. This part of Chicago is clean, elegant beautiful. The city pulsates with sound and movement, punctuated by distant sirens and taxi horns. I look up in the warm late afternoon and am surrounded by tall beautifully arcitected buildings bejeweled with thousands of panes of glass glinting in the afternoon sun.
The Michigan room of the Sheraton however, is not overlooking the skyline or the iridescence of the river. It is in the basement with a few Wave representatives and two Seagate engineers ready for conversation with prospective customers of the Momentus 5400 FDE.2. One of the Seagate engineers was Sam, who is also the project leader for the Momentus 5400 FDE.2. Sam is warm and engaging. Wave's CEO, Steven Sprague is also in the room. No representative from Dell is there and unfortunately, few prospects are in the room. Word was that word hadn't sufficiently gotten out and there was some murky communication gap with Dell regarding the seminar schedule. Ouch, this not the auspicious atmosphere you might imagine from your desktop with a high speed connection to your favorite discussion board.
I talked with Sam at length. He estimates Seagate produces roughly 145 million drives per quarter. With no previous information about Seagate's production numbers, I am unable to confirm or challenge that estimate. It is a big number. He also says that Seagate has no problems with production of the FDE.2 and has no problems meeting the demand for the product. This is a company that clearly knows how to scale production. I pressed Sam as to why he thought HP would not also incorporate his elegant solution into their own platform. He said they felt their current solution was adequate.
I was also able to get re-aqainted with Steven Sprague. Steven was again engaging, enigmatic, allusive, slightly defensive, informed and visionary. His anecdotes are laced with enough facts and confirmable references to be believable. In the dark basement room of the Sheraton Steven articulates Wave's veil of bright promise and impending demand, however, it sounds thin, faded and worn. I remember, it's time to feed the parking meter and I need a short break.
Outside, the skyline is illuminated by the lights of the windows from towering mountains of concrete and steel. I'm reminded that behind nearly every window of every building there are computing machines - PCs. Most of them are unsecured and unaccounted for, maintained by an IT person who knows there is risk. The risk is not confined to the windowed buildings but in the honking cars, in the surrounding suburban homes and O' Hare. It's mobile and at risk. Somewhere up there behind those glass panes are IT people, CEOs and CTOs who are concerned. They want to keep important, critical data from turning up in the wrong place. It's a shame they didn't know the solution was in the basement of the Sheraton. How will they hear if no one tells them?
Will the word get out to the right people? Seagate's CEO, Bill Watkins has certainly promoted it and they have committed resources to it. Dell's reps are getting trained in the technology of 'advanced security' are promoting it and more importantly are commissioned for selling the 'advanced security' option. When pressed, Sam says the demand will come from the financial industry, They are the ones making the most inquiries and have the available budgets for advanced security. In short, they are the most motivated and in the best position to act. Sam said the military is evaluating the drives, but they are likely looking at 2010 before fully evaluating the product within their own specialized needs and prepared to place an order. The Wave story continues to require patience and faith.
The Skyway - only because I think it is more direct.
Bunnyman - I'll be at the conference. I'm about 6'3 and a little gray on the side. I'm wearing a blue jacket with light slacks. I'm business owner from Kalamazoo. Hope to see you.