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I would have to agree that the shorts seem to have been correct … as I have been going "Hmmmm" for about a month now trying to figure out why a biotech with potentially great potential would trade at such a low market cap.
At this point, I just hope that we all can just burn the shorters real good at some point in the future in a GIANT Short Squeeze.
Currently $5.16. Also currently I have More than Double the amount of $ invested in MRKR than I really wanted to (due to I kept buying as it went down and down). I REALLY don't want to put more $ in, but I am kind of being forced to (because I still believe in MRKR).
I put in limit buy orders at $5.05 and at $4.04.
If I buy more at $5.05 - Fine, but GOD, I hope I never see my $4.04 executed.
This is just absolutely ridiculous.
I am kind of in between on this one (Viracyte merger).
Although I have stated several times I would be against and would vote NO on ANY buyout from ANY Big Pharma company, because for the obvious reason that MRKR will be worth much more over the long term if they remain independent, my decision on a Viracyte merger would depend upon the realization of who needs who and how much $'s.
If Viracyte accepts that they need us more than we need them and will therefore accept a smaller merger price, then I think both can win.
Viracyte gets a source of future cash access they will need, Viracyte gets access to our major investors (NEA/Baker/etc), Viracyte gets a more secure future.
MRKR gets a larger pipeline (slightly, as 2 of 4 are still pre-clinical), MRKR gets a New Therapy to add to their lineup (that also has very promising potential) which can be very financially lucrative.
MRKR gets a new therapeutic line that is going after several indications.
MRKR and Viracyte BOTH get a Happier combined family (who really already are the same family members).
It all depends on the $$$$$$$$$$$ and the realization that you have to spend money to make money.
A merger now will cost MRKR a BIT up front but will pay off with increased $$$$ in the future.
If Viracyte thinks they are currently worth 100 million, they can jump in a lake and stay private.
If Viracyte realizes all the benefits to THEM and are willing to value themselves at 25 million or < … welcome to the MRKR family.
These January shorts make no sense at all.
In January they were shorted between $5.50 and $6.70.
NOW, how much lower does anybody think it can go??
I could understand MRKR being shorted when it was at $12.50 or $11.00.
BUT, to short MRKR at $6 seems like a giant risk with very little gain.
Here's the deal with shorting.
We all know it the opposite of buying long, BUT it is ALSO opposite in it's risk/reward value.
When buying long, let's say you invest $1000. The MOST money you could possible lose is $1000 (if it goes to zero), but you have the potential to make $10,000 or $100,000.
Shorting is the opposite risk/reward.
You short a stock with a $1000 investment. The MOST money you can make is $1000 (if it goes to zero), but you have the potential to LOSE $10,000 or $100,000 (if it jumps up crazy).
Unless all of us who believe in MRKR's potential are just crazy and deceiving ourselves, I can not understand why anyone would short MRKR at $6.00 or $6.50.
It seems like a bet with very little upside and huge downside.
Yes, CAR T cost WAY MORE money … and oh, by the way … sometimes using CAR T … the patient DIES.
Don't think the insurance companies will love either one of those.
MultiTAA - much cheaper - much quicker - more effective - NO patients KILLED.
Seems like a no brainer to me.
We are at $6. Even if one argued that we are worth $8 or $10.
In 2019 if we get a positive phase 2 result and a couple positive phase 1's, it's still phase 1 + 2, what are we going to go up 200%, 300%, 400%.
NONE of those gets up close to $100 from where we are starting.
Honestly, being realistic and perhaps a bit conservative, I will be happy to end 2019 at $25/$30. $40 MAY be possible, if the stars align, but beyond that seems a bit of a stretch to me.
NO it will not.
Hi Phantom. I agree with what you said, it seems to make sense. And YES, our trials are doing BETTER than the CAR T trials did with better results and more of them. I would just think that the major players wouldn't have blinders on and they can see what the obvious future potential of MultiTAA is, SO I don't get why they are not entering NOW.
I mean Geez, if there's two choices, buy in now at $6 or buy in two years from now at $20, I'd be buying NOW.
I'm looking at the current price of MRKR and wondering WHY, with all the Many Billions that have been thrown into the CAR T Cell Therapy space, why these people don't catch onto what MRKR is doing.
WHY is all the money going into CAR T cell and not into MultiTAA T cell?
WHAT are the major differences between the two different T cell therapies?
CAR T is genetically engineered.
MultiTAA T is not (safer?).
Time to patient:
CAR T - 4 to 6 weeks?
MultiTAA T - 1 week?
Cost to patient:
CAR T - 10 times as much as MultiTAA T.
MultiTAA T - 1/10th the cost.
Horrible side effects:
CAR T - cytokine release syndrome (which has killed patients).
MultiTAA T - NO cytokine release syndrome.
Great side effects:
CAR T - ?
MultiTAA T -significant epitope spreading / additional tumor-associated antigens.
I don't know, I must be missing something.
WELL SAID
PLEASE, I hope everybody, including institutions and insiders AGREE with you 100 %.
We absolutely, positively do NOT want to accept a buyout.
I've had about half a dozen small bio's get bought by big pharm.
In the long term, there is a lot more profit for both the company and the investors if they stayed independent.
The only reason they (buyer) offers 3 billion, is because they know it's worth 12 billion.
Big pharm needs to gobble up smalls to accelerate their growth rates.
I'd vote NO.
I CAN NOT BELIEVE that a Director (INSIDER) of IOVA bought 12.5 MILLION dollars worth of shares in early December at a HIGHER price than it currently is … and NOBODY is on this board posting anything???
I bought in last week and BUYING EVEN MUCH MORE today!!!
Exactly. Up damn near 60% since recent bottom is just fine.
We should stairstep up from here.
Higher highs and higher lows.
There will always be some minor selling with each new high, but as long as we continue higher highs and higher lows, over time will be just great.
Seriously, at this point, after today's data, this should be one billion market cap, NOT 260 million.
Just a matter of time.
Thanks.
Hi Flyingj,
Immunology, let's say, in a broad term, is making ones own body fight/cure a disease.
In that sense, there is all kinds of immunology.
We talk about MRKR's multiTAA T cell.
And CAR T cell (chimeric antigen receptors T cell)
And ACT (adoptive cell transfer)
There's more quasi "immunology"
RNAi (RNA interference)
mRNA (messenger RNA)
CRISPR (clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats)
Kinase inhibitors
TIL's (Tumor infiltrating lymphocytes)
PDL (Programmed death ligand)
and etc.
All are trying to produce a response so your body heals itself.
At this point, I don't think anybody or any company knows for sure what will or will not work "most of the time".
What we do know is this, some of the therapies on the above list HAVE worked … and some of those same therapies have Killed their patients.
To twist a saying, MRKR is trying to KISS (keep it simple ------).
I don't think the human body really likes all this genetic manipulation/interference.
Look at all the crazy side effects of every medicine commercial on TV.
A lot of times they are worse than what they are trying to cure.
I once took Zyban, it almost killed me (severely allergic to it).
Take this to cure a headache, but it might give you liver disease.
Take this to stop itchy skin, but it might give you kidney failure.
MRKR is trying to "keep it simple", with NO incidence of cytokine release syndrome, neurotoxicity or any other serious adverse events related to the therapy.
CAR-T has had problems.
CRISPR has had problems.
RNAi has had problems.
I've owned all those technologies in the past (and made $).
MRKR's two giant pluses are NO cytokine release syndrome, AND
significant evidence of epitope spreading with expansion of endogenous T cells specific for tumor-associated antigens that were NOT targeted by the MultiTAA product.
Your body creating "additional" antigens that can help cure you "for free", because they were not even targeted to be produced (with no nasty side effects), I think is HUGE.
Right now, I'm betting on MRKR curing and not killing.
I hope so. I'd be happy with a one billion market cap by end on 2019.
Insiders buying - What are you waiting on?
Just an observation … relating to update and price.
Back in October, a few asked why was Marker so undervalued compared to Allogene and Juno and Kite etc., etc..
I answered in post 24854:
"For the last couple decades, biotech has been enamored by the next Latest Greatest New technology. We went from RNAI tech, to MRNA tech, to CAR-T tech, to TALON tech, to CRISPR tech.
ALL genetically engineered.
Along comes MRKR MultiTAA technology - quicker, cheaper, safer, better.
BUT it's not Sexy, it's not NOW, it's not Genetically Engineered."
But Now today, Guess What?
Do you know what MRKR's "NOT GENETICALLY ENGINEERED" MultiTAA technology is doing?
It's NOT KILLING patients due to cytokine release syndrome and neurotoxicity as other have with their genetically engineered technologies.
Whether MRKR is SEXY or not, whether MRKR is NOW or not, whether MRKR is GENETICALLY ENGINEERED or not, … sooner or later, Doctors, patients, investors, and the market will wake up and catch on, and the price will skyrocket.
I think that is GREAT news. A lot of people were really high on the Marker part of the merger and were kind of putting aside the TPIV side of things.
With BOTH Marker AND Tapimmune studies doing Very Well, this is Very Encouraging.
For the TPIV200 ovarian cancer study.
"Marker had previously projected the initiation of its interim analysis to begin in Q4 2018, triggered by the 50th patient to progress following treatment. Despite faster than expected enrollment of patients in this study, as of the end of December fewer than 50 patients had progressive disease. As a result, Marker now expects to reach its planned interim analysis trigger by end of the second quarter of 2019, with interim data reported by year end."
Doesn't that just mean that the interim analysis is delayed because patients are DOING BETTER than they expected?
The two stand out statements in the new updates.
#1 - The repeated statement: "No incidence of cytokine release syndrome, neurotoxicity or any other serious adverse events related to the therapy."
#2 - The high complete responses, the high durable responses, and the low disease progression.
I'm not sure what more investors or potential patients can possible want other than unrealistic magical perfection which will never happen with any companies treatments.
It's January, buyers coming back in, hope it continues and continues.
Good day today, need many more like today.
Here is the link for the breast cancer lady:
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/tecentriq-immunotherpy-triple-negative-breast-cancer-shows-promise/
I believe she was given Tecentriq, also called Atezolizumab, made by Genentech/Roche.
Atezolizumab blocks the interaction of PD-L1 with programmed cell death protein 1 (PD-1) and CD80 receptors (B7-1Rs). PD-L1 can be highly expressed on certain tumors, which is thought to lead to reduced activation of immune cells (cytotoxic T-cells in particular) that might otherwise recognize and attack the cancer. Inhibition of PD-L1 by atezolizumab can remove this inhibitor effect and thereby engender an anti-tumor response. It is one of several ways to block inhibitory signals related to T-cell activation, a more general strategy known as "immune checkpoint inhibition."
I read about this a couple weeks ago.
"Doctors say an Ohio woman, who has battled non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma since 2009, is cancer free after becoming the first patient in a groundbreaking clinical trial.
Denise Kennan, 66, participated in a new cancer treatment in August called CAR T-cell Therapy at Seidman Cancer Center at University Hospitals of Cleveland. Just 30 days later, doctors say they can’t find any trace of cancer."
Here's the article link:
https://detroit.cbslocal.com/2018/12/12/woman-cancer-free-as-car-t-cell-therapy-shows-promising-results/
One month from now - January 31th, $6.75 per share - not perfect, but a good start to a much better 2019 - I hope.
Have a great New Year ALL.
From Motley Fool article today concerning this bear market:
Don't sell your stocks
As long as your short-term financial needs are taken care of, the
absolute worst move you can make as an investor is to sell into a bear
market. Just ask anyone who liquidated their portfolio in late 2008,
or in the aftermath of the dot-com crash, how the move worked out for
them.
Humans are emotional beings. When the values of our investments
plummet, our emotions tell us that we should sell before things get
any worse. The golden rule of investing is to "buy low and sell high."
Selling into market weakness is the exact opposite of what you should
be doing.
Take advantage of bargains
Let's say that you were out shopping at your favorite store. All of a
sudden, the store manager got on the intercom and announced that
everything in the store was 25% off. Would you panic, unload your
shopping cart, and leave the store? Of course not. You'd probably buy
even more. The same logic applies to bear markets.
Hi Epicare,
You said:
"I have reallocated a total 50K and poured all in MRKR."
You should be well rewarded. Happy New Year.
Should have been:
"You make most of your money in a bear market, you just don't realize it at that time".
Howdy erg61,
You said "The more experienced traders understand what’s going on and so if they stay I stay".
EXCELLENT Thinking.
When I started investing decades ago, I knew NOTHING about stocks and didn't understand ANY NEW technology.
What I did was this: I ordered quarterly and annual reports from all of the best preforming small cap mutual funds.
And then I compared them … and then when I found the same small stock was owned by 6 or 8 or 10 of the best preforming funds, I would buy that stock.
I didn't give a you know what about the company or what they did, I just mimicked what the "best, smartest" pro's were doing.
Worked out just fine, and then I started to research and study and learn for myself.
That early time frame is also when I heard a very valuable phrase that has paid off very well over time:
"You make most of your money in a bear market, you just don't realize it that time".
To put it another way, you can't buy low and sell high … if you don't buy low when the opportunity exists.
When everybody is scared and running for the hills, you have got to (if you are able to) do the opposite and buy.
Good Luck to all of us - I hope we are all right.
Latest data, Well, some shorts covered at these low prices to take their profits and ran.
Current shorts down to 1,200,000 shares, down 216,000 shares from a month ago.
It would make sense. Same owners, also with Baylor College of Medicine. I hope it's true. Doesn't seem like it would hurt the stock price, only help.
This company has much more cash, land value and wholly owned subsidiaries, with no debt than the current market cap.
CRAZY, it's just getting bombed with the rest of the market, it's worth more than it's break up value.
Thank You very much, I appreciate your comment.
I KNOW that sometimes I tend to sound arrogant or condescending because I am trying to make a point.
Sometimes I repeat that point several times in order to try to get through.
Though out life I have always remembered an old proverb.
I will post it here, but I will intentionally leave off the last 4 words, anyone can google the proverb to find the end of it.
He who DOES NOT know,
and DOES NOT know he DOES NOT know,
is a fool, avoid him.
He who DOES NOT know,
and KNOWS he DOES NOT know,
is a student, teach him.
He who KNOWS,
and DOES NOT know he knows,
is asleep, awaken him.
He who KNOWS,
and KNOWS he KNOWS,
is a … …, … … .
I'm now old, I've learned a lot over my many decades, I'm just trying to pass it along.
Have a GREAT 2019.
I agree, I think in January, both investors and mutual funds will start buying back in lifting the pps. All we need in one good CAR-T trial result and I think it will start to skyrocket (I HOPE). Happy Holidays.
erg61.
#1 I'm glad you have no intention of selling (and thereby locking in your losses).
#2 You mentioned "hype about the combine companies market value being 600 million to a billion".
Lesson, NEVER listen to or invest on hype, even from the company itself, many times it is B.S. spin, ie: "forward looking statements" that are essentially meaningless.
#3 You mentioned "I don’t think I ever heard anyone mention low $4.00’s or even possibly 3’s".
I would have never guess low $4's or any $4's. I had said $5.25 about a month ago based solely of NEA and Baker etc. buying in a $4 and the option to buy more at $5 as the lowest it could possibly go, and that price is where I had a large limit order. Guess what, I was wrong. I bought at 5.25 and am now losing on that. I bought more at 4.75 and am now losing on that. I currently have another large limit order in at $4.04. After that, I'm DONE, I have way more money in to this than I ever planned on.
Hopefully, all that means is in time I will just have a bigger pay off than planned for.
I NEVER would have thought it would EVER get to $5, but what is happening is this, and you've heard it before, they are throwing the baby out with the bath water.
I am telling you, MRKR is NOT a $4 stock, MRKR is NOT a $5 stock.
I said a couple times previous that based on comparables, the market cap (based on current status) should be around 350 million (without the bear market killing everything).
But in a horrible bear market, comparables are also meaningless, what I say is completely meaningless, company presentations and spin are meaningless.
We need very positive trial results. We will get back to our $350 million market cap and beyond that in time as trials play themselves out.
For right now, screw the price of MRKR and enjoy your Holidays.
THANK YOU, I am going to have a great Christmas …. because I will NOT let the current price of MRKR affect me, my family, or this holiday season.
The amount of money I am down in MRKR makes me want to throw up (because I've been dumping more and more in), but it is what it is, and it WILL rebound.
Thank You, Have a great Holiday season and I truly believe we will all be rewarded with MRKR in 2019 and beyond if we just have some patience and let this horrendous bear market play itself out.
I apologize, you are absolutely correct.
I should have said that you have to look at MRKR as more of a Russell 2000 stock (with no revenues) as opposed to a Nasdaq stock (that generally do have revenues).
Thank You for the correction because if giving information, the information should be accurate.
Thank You for some validation.
Even though some don't believe it, I'm trying to help people.
My posts vary in style based on who I'm responding to.
Sometimes, logic and soothing words are the best tactic.
Sometimes it's Occam's Razor.
Sometimes Reductio Ad Absurdum is the most effective way to get through and make a point.
But in any case, civilized humans should be able to disagree without being disagreeable.
I've been investing since the mid 1980's, seen it all before over and over.
And it absolutely DOES repeat.
It's all about greed and fear.
It's all about risk versus reward.
When everyone is being greedy, you need to be fearful (and prepare).
When everyone is fearful (like now), you need to be greedy (and buy).
YES, the most speculative stocks have the highest potential risk.
BUT, they also have the highest potential reward.
When I owned them as tiny speculative companies, Qualcomm and Pharmacyclics and Vertex and Alnylam were all VERY RISKY, but they paid off well.
Did I own other companies where I lost most of my investment?
OF COURSE, but that's the nature of the game you have to accept if you want to play in speculative stocks.
The most important thing a human can do is procreate.
The second most important thing a human can do is to gain as much knowledge as possible AND THEN pass that knowledge along to others.
That is what advances the human race.
But that is only my opinion.