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Hi Aptus, I supect Richard would like to read this book http://invest-faq.com/fiveminute/ The book is worth reading, however the author recommends using margin in such a way that I feel is risky. He never shows what happens if the market goes the wrong way.
Hi Cjam, you have a very interesting web site, found your spread sheet under the fund section. We have a AIM re-bal board that you should check out also. http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=1140&requestparm=3187198
He also has a web site at. http://jibes0.tripod.com/trendseeker.html He has a spread sheet half way down the web page.
You can find more AIM boards here. http://www.investorshub.com/boards/boards.asp?cat_id=137
Also I have a board that try's to cover types of systematic investing here. http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=966 The one I like the best is Synchrovest by Robert Lichello, from his book Super Power Investing. It is similar to Twinvest, but I think it is better.
Thanks Tom
Hi Niceboat, I think the odds of getting 11 red may be 99 to 1. But the odds of the next play of the wheel being red or black should remain at 18 to 38 in a American casino. The only game that I know of that lets you bet on red or black is roulette. The printing of blackjack was probably a misprint. As far as I know blackjack is the only game where you have a chance of winning over the long run, and then only if you train yourself to count the cards correctly.
Hi tom / any one, Do you have a spread sheet with instructions for ROCAR (Return On Capital At Risk) I think I would like to do some comparisons between DCA and Synchrovest. My email is lostcowboyXXX@vei.net the X'es are for spammers only!
Found some more spread sheets. http://www.futuresmag.com/industry/downloads/downloads.html
Don, you are right this dividend site is interesting. http://www.dividenddiscountmodel.com/freestocks/
While I was doing a search on the (Dividend Discount Model) I came across this site http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/spreadsh.htm
They have a lot of spread sheets here. Go and get them guy's.
Hi Bernie, it could be a error in web data, msn is showing a loss also. http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/research/profile.asp?Symbol=CEI It looks like the loss is coming from the 4th qtr of 2001. http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/hilite.asp?Symbol=CEI . Here is some from quicken http://www.quicken.com/investments/stats/?p=CEI&tag=1
Note all data could be in error.
Hi Karel, I like your formula, but I decided to make it a little bit simpler. Stock%= (LOW/HIGH). I wonder if this could keep people from buying into potential deep divers? Let us say that for any stock I may be considering I will have a minimum of 20%stock. Let us take the five year low and divide it by .2.
Example $5/.2= a high price of $25. If the price is higher than $25, I should look for a better stock, or wait to get in to this one. What do you think?
Hi TAB, Even though I have never invested, I have a suggestion. Lets say that you have found a stock that you like. Like these reit's that pay dividends at a high yield. Look at the history of the stock prices. Like the 52 week HI/LOW or the five year HI/LOW. Divide the Hi with the Low this will give you a idea of the range of the stock prices, next compare the current price to it, If the price is close to the top you may want to start you AIM with 20% stock and 80% cash. If the price is near the middle then use 50% stock and 50% cash. If the price is close to the bottom try 80% stock and 20% cash. You can of course adjust this as you see fit. You can use the 33% stocks/66% cash or 66% stocks/33% cash also.
I am not seeing a lot of insider buying. http://www.quicken.com/investments/insider/?p=BRCD&tag=1
Intrinsic value is not looking to good right now. http://www.quicken.com/investments/seceval/?p=BRCD&cmetric=intrinsic
Here is a company report. http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/research/profile.asp?Symbol=brcd
Here are some key ratio's.
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/compare.asp?Symbol=brcd
Here is the recent news on them. http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/ticker/rcnews.asp?Symbol=BRCD
Right now the only good thing about them, is they do not look as bad as the rest of their industry. But investors were hoping that this next earning report would show positive earnings and the latest news says maybe they won't, and so they got pounded again. Also their debt ratio is starting to get higher than most investors like to see it. But by the time the bear is done that will be true of most stocks that survive.
I cannot say if you should get out or not. I would say that this stock could be called a high risk stock. If I had any money to invest with, I would put no more than 10% of my money into high risk stock, I would have most of my money in stocks that pay a dividend. I think that is what the times call for, but each investor has his own opinion on this. If you think along the same lines, you may want to check these out. http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/finder/finderx.asp?Query=SV1QS1F227Z06%22Diversified%20I... I am not saying they are all good. Just that they pay dividends and that they do move some times.
Here are Two little programs, to keep track of IE's cache. http://www.mindspring.com/~dpoch/enigmatic/index.html
Hi toofuzzy, I think the IRS had a ruling on that about twenty years ago. They disallowed it. In order to get the tax loss, you have to be totally out of that stock for 30 days. No puts or calls allowed.
Hi all this is in reference to US:BRCD. As you may know I have no stock buying experience. But I am working on picking stocks. When I hear of a stock I go here, http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/research/wizards/SRW.asp?Symbol=US%3aBRCD and work my way through the list. I also go to here http://www.quicken.com/investments/strategies/?p=BRCD&tag=1 and check out what each of the investing styles think of the stock, I also go here http://www.quicken.com/investments/seceval/?p=BRCD&tag=1 and check out each page. And last I try to get a handle on what the insiders are doing. http://www.quicken.com/investments/insider/?p=BRCD&tag=1 They have been doing a lot of selling, and very little buying.
From what I have seen, I would say wait on this stock, until earnings go back positive. Remember just because the product is good, that does not mean this company will be the one selling it in the future.
First you did everything right, except for using Geocities for storage. They do not let you link to pictures on their web site, they want the ad money. Check with your ISP, they probably can set you up for a web page at no charge, you usually get 5 meg's for no charge, more than that they charge.
Hi Denisebj, I see your test worked. However you posted your screen shot as a .jpg file, If you had saved it as a .gif file you would have had a smaller file. The way to determine which format to use is to look at your screen shot, if it looks like it has less than 256 colors in it, and/or it has long horizontal lines of the same color use .gif. If the screen shot has more than 255 colors, like a picture, then you want to use .jpg.
I also see that the program you are using puts a ad on the screen shot. You may want to try a free program called IrfanView. The program comes in two downloads, a small download that will fit on a floppy, and a larger plugin's download. Here is the site http://irfanview.tuwien.ac.at/english.htm , and here is another site that has a small tutorial of the program. http://www.teachers-connect.net/misc/quest/infanv/irfanv.htm
Hi Denisebj, If I understand your two messages.
1, you have quote's and charting software. But you want more. This software may be of help, it comes in two versions, freeware with a 15 min delayed quote's at http://www.fongan.net/MT/ and a payware version with real time quote's http://www.naq.com/. I am not sure you can put text on it, and I think you have to take a screen shot in order to post a chart.
Here is another freeware program that tries to time the market, http://www.stock-anal.com/ you may find it interesting to compare it's buy sell signals to X_DEV's signals.
Wow I see you have been working your poor computer pretty hard. You had better get him under some shade and give him a drink of water! You got him all lathered up. lol
What web site do you use?
Hi Niceboat, While I have not played with the program. It sounds to me that what you are complaining of should be happening. My understanding of the program is that you optimize the buy/sell points to your liking with old data. Once you have it set up, you then start anew with new data, making buys/sells as you like. If after a while you decide that you don't like the profit/loss that you are having. You decide to re-optimize, of course at the end of re-optimizing you should have different buy/sell points. Again you would start anew with new data. Have you tried the trial program?
Also you may be interested to know that the program is pretty new. Version 1 was a spreadsheet, version 2 is the program you see now, version 3 is in the works. If you think of any improvements that you would like to see in version 3, be sure to speak up. Normally version 2 would not have been out for about six more months, but there was such a demand for a program, not a spreadsheet that it came out early. Most people have been paper testing the program, but I think there have been a few who have started to invest real money. I think it is to early to say if anyone has made money with the program yet.
Hi conrad, very interesting, and similar to what Jeff Weber wrote in his book in chapter 2A. http://www.jjjinvesting.com/chap2a.htm But He did not increase the percentage of (sell safe) on price increase.
Don, you are taking from the wrong part. put your mouse on top of the chart, then right click it and go to properties. A window pops up. you will see the url. click your mouse left button between http:// and www.ttrader.com/mycharts/charts/doncarlson/Charts.png drag to the right to highlight the url. right click and select copy. Then in your message use [ chart]www.ttrader.com/mycharts/charts/doncarlson/Charts.png[ /chart]. remember no spaces between the [ ].
I thought that little sign was signaling what to do with each stock, as you scan all the stocks in the market.
Conrad, As you know AIM and Vortex are forms of averaging down programs, they buy more stock as the price goes down. When you look closly at the stock charts of these two funds they use both stock splits and stock reverse splits.
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/charts/charting.asp?Symbol=uopix
Set period to five years. The first split was a reverse split 1 for 5 , the next split was 4 for 1, the last was 1 for 5. Lets say you had build you stock shares up to 1000, they do the 1 for 5 split you now have 200 shares, then the price goes up you sell shares. You have 50 shares left, they do the 4 for 1 split, you now have 200 shares,and the price goes down, you again build your shares up to say 800 shares and they have the 1 for 5 reverse split. you now have 160 shares. I don't think this is the way to AIM, or Vortex a stock.
uspix had a 15 to 1 reverse stock split!
Note: If I remember correctly Tom tried to AIM one of these funds, you may want to check with him as to how he did.
Hi Leapyear92, The latest book is the 4th edition, see #msg-282932 I think you have to go to Amazon to get it. You can get the 3ed edition at most book stores.
MM, I am sorry to say that you did not put the word DAILY in your explanation. Both of these funds are for SHORT-TERM ONLY
I see on the indigo web site that they have a free stock screener. It may be worth getting. http://www.indigoinvestor.com/
Hi Tom, I remember you said these ETF's were for your wife to manage. So just tell her that the NASDAQ is having a red tag sale today. You may have to increase her spending limit on that NASDAQ card. And when she get's the green tag's, that's when she can return them for cash! Of course she has abide by their AIM policy.
I am sorry to say it is a rare book. I think it came out a round 1942. The best place to find it will be public library or school library. Over here a lot of the library's lend each other books. That was how I was able to read it.
Hi Rajan, I think anyone who reads ether book put out by Mr. Robert Lichello wants to tinker with it. I think this is due to the way the books were written.
About not increasing Portfolio Control, AIM will still work, but you will not get the profit that regular AIM gets. A good book to read is (Practical Formula's for Successful Investing by Lucile Tomlinson) She takes you through the Pro's and Con's of each Formula that she knew at that time. The formula like AIM is called Constant Dollar plan. The problem with constant dollar is that after a few cycles, when you come back to the price that you started the plan at. You find that the ratio of stocks to dollars has shifted. It may now be at 40/60 instead of 50/50. She said the way to correct this was to increase Portfolio control, she recommended doing this at the low point of the cycle. The book is worth reading if you can find a copy, it was written back in the early forty's.
Hi winslow, I have dialup and did not notice any slowing down with the free version at the time.
But I have noticed a severe slow down in my internet throughput, my ISP uses world com for my main lines. I understand that world com is about half the internet. That could be part of your problem.
Also have you tried optimizing your cable setting? you can go here and read all about it. http://www.speedguide.net/
Tom, A very interesting web site. While I don't think that you want to get a subscription. I was wondering how his old data related to the idiot wave, and whether it would help to add it in.
I wonder if that large investor who wants his shares back is related to the hunts brother's that did that play in the silver market back in the 70's. I wonder if he has been buying call options?
Lets try this, take chart.globeinvestor.com/servlet/charting?chart_type=png&lang=EN&fund_id=23290&chart_style=fund_line&period=3YR&compare_index_id=0&compare_fund_id1=0&chart_size=medium&app=gf4 and put it between [chart ] and [/chart ] with out the spaces! like this!
the way I got the info for the chart was in the IE browser right click on the chart, and click on properties. you can then highlight the info and copy it. make sure you highlight all of it there are several rows of it.
Hi Conrad, You are right I can not point you to a section where that types of problem is listed. I thought the problem you were talking about was people not wanting to help with stock selection, was that not why you changed from a club to a fund? As far as I know none of the clubs using Bivio.com have reported any legal problems with members.
As far as your legal problem is concerned, the way I read what you said, the problem was not due to the member investing in Vortex fund. But due to the member investing in your engineering project.
About the wife claiming that she should have signed the paper as well. Unless she had a power of attorney, I don't think she has a leg to stand on. If he paid you with a check, I would get a copy of the check from the bank. If his name only is on the account, I think that would help your defence. If it is a account where she had to sign too, but did not, and the bank cashed it anyway. Then I think that would lay the blame on the bank, and not you, for cashing the check.
About their lawyers claiming that you made more profit than you claimed you did. The funds books should be proof enough, as to who is right or wrong there. I wish you well in your court battle, or appeal.
Hi conrad, I can see how your Vortex Fund experience may have turned you away from investment clubs. You can see on the Bivio front page under Club Cafe, that you are not alone with these problems. http://www.bivio.com/index.html
As far as your two aspects are concerned, 1) learning about investing and 2) social interaction
We are doing that right here on this message board. So you could say we already have the beginning of a club here. The only thing is that it is a informal club. We are not pooling any money. We have already had two informal yearly meetings. Some people have expressed that they wished there was a fund that invested the AIM way, but there is none. I assume these people have less then the recommended minimum of $10,000 to invest the AIM way. They would probably like the idea of a club, but there is a problem as there are not that many of them in one state let alone one city. Which leave you with what? A online club. But that is not easy to do. First you have to find the founding members, then you have to make sure the club rules and regs are legal in the states that the members live in, you have to register with the IRS. Then once you are legal, the accounting nightmares start's. The only thing Bivio is doing is helping with the Accounting nightmare, the rest you would still have to do your self. Here is one of the investment clubs that use Bivio, http://www.bivio.com/crowriver/files/index.html?home=1 , They have been nice enough to post all their legal documents, so that other people can see what they need to do. They even have assignments that people are expected to do between meetings, and if they are not active then they are kicked out of the club.
Hi all, reposting this here.
Bernie said
Hi,
That's something I might consider. I have a few major problems with it however.
I don't understand how the by-laws would be set up to protect people who have their own interpretation of AIM from the whims of others.
I for one have my own ideas about which of the AIM parameters should be changed, and when and why. These probably will not agree with others. What would the checks and balances be?
Bernie
I replied with,
Hi Bernie, I am going to repost this to the Aim board so more people will see it.
I am glad you like the idea. I think with the Bivio web sites help it would be workable to set up a AIM club. Alas, I cannot be a part of it, I am still penny poor. I am still hoping to become debt free in two years, at which time I currently plan on using Synchrovest for my investment plan. I may be able to start a Synchrovest club then. The reason I posted the link to the Crow River's web site is that they have posted their documents online, this gives everyone a chance to look them over, and see how it is done.
I think you would want to look at the Partnership Agreement and the Operating Procedures. I think a brief description of AIM should be put into the Partnership agreement, along with a statement that a new partners Cash or new cash may not be put into the market immediately, but may be kept in reserves for a long period of time. A detailed description of AIM would go into the Operating Procedures. These would have to be agreed to by the starting members, and any new members as they came in to the club. As far as changes go, I would think a two thirds vote would cover it, and of course if they did vote in something that you could not live with, you could take your shares and leave.
In the CR's Operating Procedures, you have criteria for buying and selling stock, that is where the detailed AIM rules would go. http://www.bivio.com/crowriver/files/webpages/crowriveropman.htm
I hope this will lead to a AIM Investment Club.
Hi Bernie, I am going to repost this to the Aim board so more people will see it.
I am glad you like the idea. I think with the Bivio web sites help it would be workable to set up a AIM club. Alas, I cannot be a part of it, I am still penny poor. I am still hoping to become debt free in two years, at which time I currently plan on using Synchrovest for my investment plan. I may be able to start a Synchrovest club then. The reason I posted the link to the Crow River's web site is that they have posted their documents online, this gives everyone a chance to look them over, and see how it is done.
I think you would want to look at the Partnership Agreement and the Operating Procedures. I think a brief description of AIM should be put into the Partnership agreement, along with a statement that a new partners Cash or new cash may not be put into the market immediately, but may be kept in reserves for a long period of time. A detailed description of AIM would go into the Operating Procedures. These would have to be agreed to by the starting members, and any new members as they came in to the club. As far as changes go, I would think a two thirds vote would cover it, and of course if they did vote in something that you could not live with, you could take your shares and leave.
In the CR's Operating Procedures, you have criteria for buying and selling stock, that is where the detailed AIM rules would go. http://www.bivio.com/crowriver/files/webpages/crowriveropman.htm
While reading one of the measage boards on Bivio.com I came across this web site. http://www.bivio.com/crowriver/files/index.html?home=1
It looks like a well run club.
If anyone is still interested in starting a investment club. you should read this message. http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=454074
Hi all, while everyone is waiting on the market, I can tell you are waiting as the AIM board is dead this weekend.
A while back there was talk of a starting a AIM investment club. A very good book on how to start a club is (Starting and Running a Profitable Investment Club by Thomas E O'hara and Kenneth S. Janke,Sr.) I like their Idea's on how to pick growth stocks. In the book they recommend systematic investing (dollar cost averaging), but I think this could easily be adapted to AIM, Twinvest, or Synchrovest. I don't think Value Cost Averaging could be used with out modifying it. Here is the NAIC web site. http://www.better-investing.org/
One of the problems with a AIM investment club is not to many of the people live near each other. This web site may be able to help solve that problem. http://www.bivio.com/index.html I found a link to Bivio on the fools web site.