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Hi Rossi, at least part of the problem is due to the web page you are looking at. Be sure to complain to the web site, say you have poor eye sight and cannot read their page, and that changing the font size with (view/text size) does not fix the problem. Here is what is happening, the web page is using what is called style sheets to control font type and size. But you can over ride this in IE, go to tools internet options, click on Accessibility, under formatting select the third box. Then click on each ok on the way out. You now can control font size with the view/text size. About the window size, again they control this in the web page, alas I do not know how to over ride this.
About screen resolution, you will probably find that 800X600 is best for you. But you will find that some web sites use poor programming, and you can read only part of the page at a time. Be sure to complain to the web site.
Thanks Stiv, what with my slow dialup it really helps! Wish I could get DSL!
I hate to complain, but I would like to see charts that are less than 50K, in size! You will find that if you save them as gif's you should be able to do this.
Hi Don here is some stuff on Moving Averages. I have not tested it myself.
This was taken from the book
Playing the Stock & Bond Markets with Your Personal Computer
by L. R. Schmeltz
STOCKTREND ANALYST
Michael G. Zahorchak, in his book, The Art Of Low Risk Investing, presented an interesting approach to investment man-agement using moving averages to determine both market trends and individual stock positions. By selecting volatile stocks, Zahorchak demonstrates how capitalizing on market cycles can provide relatively good gains. To use this approach, one needs to calculate 5, 15 and 40 week moving averages for each stock followed, and at least one broad market index. In addition, a 15 week advance-decline line is calculated. Deciding which stock to buy and when is determined by various combinations of moving average interaction. Both broad market and individual stock trends are considered for purchases. Selling a stock is determined primarily by its own moving average activity. Weekly data for each of the indexes and stocks is used to update the program. At least 40 weeks of data must be available to calculate all the moving averages. As I mentioned in Chapter 1, this approach lends itself well to development of a computer program because of its well defined parameters. Actually, one of the first programs I wrote was based on Zahorchak’s principles. This program (Listing 7-2) is one of
many versions that have been developed since that first one. If you are tempted to use this approach in your own investment program, I would strongly recommend reading, The Art Of Low Risk Investing, from cover to cover! Much of the information contained in the book does not enter into the computer program and yet could be equally important in helping you to make intelligent investment decisions. Notice the advance-decline information is a single figure in the file. This figure is computed by the following process:
Collect the last 15 weekly totals of prices that have advanced and declined on the particular exchange that interests
you.
For the least recent week, subtract the declines from the advances and add an arbitrary figure to the total to keep long term results positive (20,000, for instance).
For the next least recent week, subtract the declines from the advances and add the result to the figure obtained at the end of the previous step.
Continue as above for each succeeding week, each time
adding the figure obtained to the total from the previous week.
(Obviously, if the resulting figure is negative, it should be
subtracted from the previous week’s total). The last calculation made should be for the current week.
Actually, two sets of moving averages are calculated—one for the past week and the other for the current week. The two figures are used in determining the primary direction of movement of the averages. Following computation of the moving averages, this routine updates the file by dropping the last item and incorporating the current figure as part of the data
array.
The general market comment is derived from the moving averages for a broad index and the advance-decline line. If both the 5 and 15 week are below the 40, and the advance-decline line is down, a bear market is assumed to exist. When the 5 week figure makes an upward move, a probable bear market rally is indicated. If the 5 week penetrates the 40 or the advance-decline line turns positive, this could be interpreted as the first sign of a new bull market and provides a preliminary buy indication. When the 5 week figure has penetrated the 40 and the advance-decline line is advancing, the second sign of a bull market is flashed. If both the 5 and 15 week figures are above the 40, the advance-decline line advancing and the 40 week moving average advancing from week to week, a bull market is in progress. If the 5 week then drops below the 40 or the advance-decline line starts dropping, the market becomes uncertain. If the 15 week line drops below the 40, a bear market is indicated.
For individual stocks, the moving average figures generate generalized recommendations. If the 5 and 15 are above the 40 week, the stock is to be held regardless of market trend. If the 5 week drops below the 15 or 40 week figures, the stock should be held in a bull market and sold in a bear. A stock should be purchased in the early stages of bull markets if both the 5 and 15 week averages have been below the 40 and the 5 rises sufficiently to penetrate the 40. As long as the 5 and 15 week averages remain below the 40, the stock should be avoided regardless of the general market trend.
Moving averages, by design,,. react slowly to changes in market conditions. This means that buy and sell conditions are likely to occur long before they are recognized by the program. In following a similar approach over a period of two years or so, I have noticed the sell signals particularly slow to occur.
Hi Tom, The problem with a Bear market would be, that you would still have a large down draw. I think any investment plan needs a selling plan, whether you sell, a little at a time, or all at once. If one wanted to wait and sell all at once, one would use something like (Hi Price - X percent) as a sell point, the problem with that is you may end up being faked out of the market, by a big dip. I understand Don Carlson has been working with MA Crossovers and that may be the way to go. I will have to look in to it some more. As a matter of fact my next post will be on MA Crossovers.
Hi all, today I got the formula that dripadvisor had been using. I guess the new owner did not want it on the site. I found the old web page here. http://webdev.archive.org/index.php Here is the information.
As a DRIP investor, you already know that the key to superior long term returns is the ability to invest every month. This form of consistent investing, regardless of ups or downs in your portfolio, helps average your purchase price down without worrying about timing the market.
The DRIP Advisor has taken this common approach and put it on steroids. By using a proven mathematical approach, the DRIP Investment Calculator can increase your long-term returns dramatically! DRIP Investment Calculator (DRIPIC) automatically calculates a percentage of your normal investment amount to invest at the current time. By varying the investment amount based on the stock's current price, 52-week moving average, and the growth rate of the company, DRIP Investment Calculator increases your long term returns one investment at a time.
You may have seen other formula driven investment approaches, such as the Moneypaper's Invest%. Our research shows these methods will decrease your returns, compared to the DRIP Investment Calculator and even regular dollar cost averaging.
Compare the results of the three investment approaches, then check out the latest results of the DRIP Investment Calculator.
If you are interested in the equation behind the DRIP Investment Calculator, read the next section to find out the specifics. To understand how the DRIP Investment Calculator works, we must first establish a small number of known points:
Stocks appreciate at a normalized rate over a given period of time. Example: the average large cap stock has appreciated 18.6% per year for the past 10 years, and about 12.6% a year for the past 70 years.
Because of this normalized appreciation, stocks tend to set new highs and trade near them a majority of the time.
Due to the nature of our markets, stocks will trade in ranges, offering opportunities during which buying is optimal.
The range over which a stock trades becomes increasingly large as expected return increases. This is why Exxon trades in a relatively small range compared to a Yahoo.
A number of investment techniques have been developed over the years, attempting to take advantage of these valuation bounds. Lump sum investing takes advantage of point 1, hoping that stocks will continues to appreciate beyond the current price. This form of investing however, requires large amounts of cash up front, does not allow for subsequent investment, and does not optimally utilize the trading ranges of stocks.
Dollar cost averaging relieves the investor of the need for a lump-sum investment, while allowing for subsequent investments. It somewhat takes advantage of a stock's trading range, buying more shares when the price is low, and less when it is high, but does not optimize the amount of capital invested.
Invest% is a technique developed by the Moneypaper. This technique attempts to optimize the amount of capital used at the current price based on the 52-week high and 52-week low. By assigning an investment value of 50% the normal capital to the high and 150% to the low, Invest% calculates a percentage of capital to invest at the current time. Unfortunately, this technique for the most part ignores the fact that stocks appreciate normally over time and tend to set new highs, thus putting less than the optimal amount of capital to work.
In researching these, and other methods, The DRIP Advisor has developed the most advanced DRIP investment technique to date. The formula used for the DRIP Investment Calculator was developed using actual historical performances of randomly selected stocks, and then back tested with a separate group of stocks. The formula begins with the fact that stocks tend to normally appreciate. Given this, the calculator finds the 52-week moving average for a given stock by using weekly historical data. This gives a more relevant measure than using the high and low, as the high and low may be skewed by extraordinary events. The 52-week moving average is then used to calculate an "expected price." The expected price is the 52-week moving average plus half of the "expected return" of the stock. If a stock were to perform in a linear method (a straight line), this "expected price" would be the same as the current price. However, stock prices are not straight lines, and this "expected price" will give us a comparison point for the current price. Here is a brief example of the expected price calculation:
Intel's 52-week moving average = $80.46
Expected growth rate = 15%
Expected price = $80.46 + 7.5%= $86.49
The difference between the current stock price and the "expected price" is taken now, and divided by the "expected price," to arrive at a "valuation deviation."
Current price = $84.50
Current price- Expected price = -$1.99
Valuation deviation = -$1.99 / Expected Price = -2.3%
At this point, we could just subtract the deviation from the expected price from 100% and find an percentage of capital to invest (in this case 102.3%). However, this would ignore point 4: the higher the expected return of a stock, the greater the range over which it trades. Due to this fact, the "valuation deviation" is divided by a fraction of the expected growth rate. To illustrate why this is done, assume Stock A is expected to grow at 12%, and Stock B is expected to grow at 15%. Stock A will tend to trade over a narrower range than Stock B, and thus will require a greater multiplication of the deviation to give your investment its "steroids." Continuing the example:
Deviation = -2.3%
Expected return = 15%
Deviation * Calculated Multiplier = -6.9%
The deviation has now been inflated in-line with the expected growth rate. For the one final step we will subtract this number from 100% to arrive at the "Suggested Investment Amount."
Suggested Investment Amount = 100% - (-6.9%) = 106.9%
As you can see, the DRIP Investment Calculator has taken advantage of each of the characteristics of stock price performance. Over time, the DRIP Investment Calculator invests near 100% of the amount you would invest with regular dollar cost averaging, it simply optimizes the time when that capital is used.
Hi Excel, while checking out that site, I found another one.
http://webdev.archive.org/index.php Just like Google, they store old web pages. I just checked and they did have a old web page that I had been looking for, Google did not have the old page.
Hi Jennie,how to do a hyperlink on investershub.
Start a second web browser, with the web page you want a hyperlink for. Go to the address window, highlight and copy the address. Come back to this window and put the curser where you want the hyperlink, right click and select paste.That is all.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=%24compq
How ever you may want to display a chart, while more complex it is still easy to do. Read the header here http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=1277
Here is the practice board.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=107
Hi Tim, not sure why you don't get the screener, but will try to help.
First you have to download a program off the web site. Not to worry it is free and small. Go here, http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/charts/charting.asp
And put in any stock symbol, when the chart comes up, look to see if you see a link under the chart, asking if you would like to upgrade to the deluxe chart. Go ahead and click on the link, you go to the download page. When you download the program, it will install automatically, and you should see a chart. Once you have it installed correctly, you will be able to use the deluxe charts, the portfolio tracker, and the advance stock screener. Here is the web page for the screener http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/finder/customstocks.asp
Oh, one more thing you have to accept the cookie. If you have installed the program, but for some reason, you got rid of the cookie, just go and download the program again, This time it will be very quick, it will just put the cookie back on your machine. Sometime you have to get the program again when they do a update.
If you still have any problem with the screener, just yell.
If you have trouble putting in rules, send me a message with the rules and I will see if I can help. If I am unavailable, go here http://groups.msn.com/MoneyCentralSuperModels/investmentfinder.msnw?all_topics=1 There are some heavy's on the screener that hang out there.
Hi Aptus, If you do open the shop. I hope you take mail order's, and do import/export. I think A lot of Texans would be interested in buying in the summer!
Hi all, Thinks for all the feed back on my sister's 401k.
Her company has four stock funds, one bond fund, and one MM fund.
Right now she has 80% split between jawwx and pnopx, and 20% in the bond fund. My hope is that when ever the bull starts, she will invest the 20%.
Hi Husk, First let me say I think your idea is ok up to a point. Lets say you have been in a up market, and your sell safe is now at 50%, and your buy is 5%. The stock will drop 55% before the first buy, that may be ok, we all know how out of wack prices can get. Don't want to buy to soon. But you said wait till the third buy before resetting sell safe to 5%, so if you get a sell it will be around 60% below the stocks HI price.
May I recommend basing the reset on the HI Price and the Low price. Say the price has dropped 20% from the Hi, reset sell safe to 5% and sell off most of your stock.
The same would go for the deep diver, say buy safe was at 40% but the stock price is now 20% higher than the Low Price, reset buy safe to 5%, and buy lots of stock.
Hi Bernie, yes you are right about front loads. But supposedly the people who run the 401k for her company worked out a deal where they don't pay the load. I think the way her 401k plan works still sucks, as to my understanding any dividends are automatically reinvested in the fund, and the fund manger puts them back into stocks right a way. You can tell that is what they did by the way the fund matches the nasdaq, if they had kept the dividends as cash the fund would have fell slower than the nasdeq. If I didn't know better I would have called it a index fund. However it is a actively managed fund, you can tell that by the turnover rate. I think that is all managers think they are supposed to do, get the most bang for the buck in a bull market. They forget they are suppose to preserve capital during a bear market! Sorry about the rant. I found this the other day. Buy and hold strategy http://www.fundadvice.com/FEhtml/BHStrategies/0108/0108a.html
Market timing strategy
http://www.fundadvice.com/FEhtml/MTStrategies/0204/0204.html
But I really like this one, have you ever hear that if you miss being in the market during the best days of the year, how it will effect your returns? What about if you miss the worst days? read on. http://www.fundadvice.com/FEhtml/MTStrategies/0112.html
That really makes you think.
Here is another web site for timing mutual funds
http://www.fundpilot.com/about.htm I first came across Scott McCormick when I was doing a web search for systems that beat dollar cost averaging. At that time he had a column on stockcharts.com, they had a web page set up to run his system. The Accelerated Growth Method. The system was interesting, but a black box.
Yes, thats the card I got.I tried to open it twice, But I don't remember seeing any e-card. I know part of what it installs is a browser plugin, I got rid of that. Do you know of any software to remove it?
Hi husk, you may want to check out http://www.jjjinvesting.com/book.html Chapter 2A is related to your method.
Trading down!
Hi Tom, you said. I feel one must differentiate between a problem with a company and a problem with the marketplace.
I think the to problems are a like, in that AIM can not continue averaging down into the stock, as it is out of cash. When that happens you have to explore other options, As to how best to hedge your position. If you use a stop loss, it cost you nothing, unless it is triggered, and then only commission costs. I think you would end up with a total loss of around 60%. Hopefully by the time AIM runs out of money, you know what type of problem you are dealing with and can make the right decision.
Here is a example, my sister has a 401k. Around 99 or 2000, on the Start Investing message board, I kept reading that the stock market was high, and If you wanted to start investing you should dollar cost average. I got to thinking on it and looking at a long term chart of the market. I had read some old books a long time ago on bubbles and crashes, so I tried to get my sister to move some of her money to the bond fund, or money market fund. Her answer was that she had read books to, that she would need around a $1,000,000 when she retired, and if things kept on like they were doing she would be able to retire on time. So she did not move her money. Her fund pnopx went from $104 to $31, when I got a call from her for help. I saw with one look that she was getting out, just wanted me to say ok. I think she got out at $28, she had around 900 shares, total $25,200. You can see my sister really believed in buy and HOLD!!! Two day's later the fund was at $26, I called her up to see if she wanted back in. She said no way, she was out for at least three months! When the fund got to $31 I called again, she said, she had not told me, but she had been back in for a week. I think she got back in at $26. The fund has been as low as $25 and as high as $31.
Lets add this up 900 shares at $28 is $25,200. $25,200 divided by $26 is 969 shares. She has a extra 69 shares. She did this with out trying. Lets say she had got out at $50 and had 800 shares, that would be $40,000, and thought $26 was the bottom. $40,000 divided by $26 is 1,538 shares, that she could of had. Oh I forgot each month she was out of the market would be another $150 in the MM fund, to throw back in.
Here is a chart.
This is a 25 day MA, of her fund pnopx, I think if you added some rules, you could trade it.
Hi Jim, assuming this is true, what effect will this have on the derivative market that JPM is up to its ears in, and how will that effect the stock market??
Hi TC, yes that FavOrg program works very well!
Hi Husk, you said: But I don't see how it can be both super charged in reacting to relatively small changes in trends, and not fully invest, or fully divest, in a sustained trend.
This is true X-Dev is made with out any safety features, after it is fully invested. You will lose portfolio value at the same rate as Mr lump sum buyer. X-dev is not a black box system. You have to provide your own safety devices.
The same is true with the AIM System. The differences is once the stock has stopped free falling, X-Dev will start buying and selling again. With AIM,you have to wait until the deep diving stock comes back to shallow depth, or the surface. I think with both, one should use a stop loss, once all money for that stock has been committed. The reasons are you can no longer average down, and the odds are very good that something has changed with the stocks basic characteristic, which is causing the price drop. You may not even want it, after you find out what that is, better to jump out of the stock at this point, If you later decide that you still want the stock, then jump back in at a lower price. You will have lowered your average price, and can ether pick up more shares, or keep the number of shares the same and free up some cash.
Hi all, I thought I would post a email that I sent to Jon Markman of MSN Moneycentral Super Models fame. He did a article on the ten year MA. As a super newbe, I would like you guys opinion on this.
PS: just read the article again, he also mentioned a 15 year MA of 1178, look like it may hold for now.
Hi Jon, It is starting to look like you got everything right in this Article, http://moneycentral.msn.com/articles/invest/models/7760.asp , except for the Exchange. You should have said the $NYA.X . While it is still to soon to be sure that this is the beginning of the end of the bear. It does look like people are paying attention to that ten year average.
By the way you can see the ten year MA in the MSN Charting program. You don't have to load the data into excel, unless you want to.
Here is how to set it up.
Click on Analysis, then settings. On price Indicators select MA Envelope. Set Periods to 120, set Width to 0.00, this gives you one line, click Ok. Then click on Period and select 10 years or greater.
With Period set to All Dates, if the $NYA.X goes through the 10 year MA. You can take a ruler and line up the lows of 1982, 1987, and 1990, this gives a upward trend line that should be in the neighborhood of 350 to 380. I think that trend line will be the next level of support. Also the $NYA.X may continue to bounce on the 10 year MA until the trend line meets the 10 year MA.
Here is a interesting chart to look at $INDU with Period set to All Dates.
If you have the MACD on you get a interesting chart too, but I am not sure that it is valid, as we are looking at months instead of days.
Well after reading the header I am confused, you want to find stocks with a high probability of going bankrupt, and then take a long position in the stock? Is this like going to the horse races and betting on the long shots to win? I am not sure this makes sense in ether case. Will not your losses be very high? Anyway here is a web page you may be interested in, check out the .pdf file at the bottom of the page. The formula should help you find stocks that will fail. You may want to change your mind about shorting the stock though. There should be more profit in shorting the stocks. http://www.defaultrisk.com/pp_score_14.htm
Hi Tab, we are talking about the same thing, as far as the stock loss is concerned. If I am not mistaken, from the point of view of the IRS, you only have one bunch of stocks, and ounce you start computing gain/losses for taxes you have to keep doing it the same way from then on. The only exceptions may be IRA's and 401K's. I am not to heavy on taxes so do check them out for your self.
Tom! You are hitting on all eight cylinders, on the idea of using the ETF's I really like it! Go big dog go! With 10 to 30 similar stocks per ETF, you have risk reduction and volatility. If I ever get big enough to run with the big dogs I will do the same.
Hi TAB, yes it would work, as long as the person is willing to invest new cash and accept the losses. It would be easier to just lower portfolio control until you get a sell, as long as you are willing to accept the loss anyway. If you take portfolio control and divide it be your shares, you get the share price where AIM is neutral. What you want to do is lower that point. Lets say PC is 16K and you have 500 shares, Aim is neutral at a share price of $32. But your stock has taken a dive and has left you bone dry. It is now bouncing between $5 and $10, so you know if you can just get aim down there, it can go back to work. Say the price is at the high of $10, you need to set PC so you can get a sell so you have some money to make a buy when the stock goes down. Split $5 & $10, you get $7. $7 time 500 shares gives a pc of $3500. If you put in a pc of $3500 and the stock price is $10, Aim will give you a sell, and you can take a loss! If I understand correctly,right now the loss can off set a gain in another stock and you can take up to $3000 on this year taxes, and you can take any excess over to the next year.
Humm, I take it you don't like Mac's to much. I have not got close to one in a long time. The last one I saw had a non-color screen. My old Amiga 1000 with 512k ram would eat it up. It is amazing what a good OS can do. Windows and the PC has just about caught up! I have a pc now, and have tried Dos,win for work groups, win 95, win 98, and win ME. So far nothing has been as stable as that Amiga 1000 was right out of the box! And its basic program is still far ahead of Microsoft's dos basic even after all this time.
Hi Niceboat, I hope you don't think that I don't like you. But I think you need to work real hard on your stock picking skills! If you are trying to go long in the market, I would not be in ether of thou's stocks! I am not sure how you are picking your stocks, but do yourself a favor, and before investing in them, go to these web sites and see what they think of your stocks. http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/research/wizards/SRW.asp
I really like Quickens one click scorecard. http://www.quicken.com/investments/strategies/
I also like their stock evaluator. http://www.quicken.com/investments/seceval/
I also like to see what the insiders are doing. http://www.quicken.com/investments/insider/
If you put your stock watch list through thou's web sites and none of them like your stocks. It is a pretty good bet that if you should buy them, you will have no one to sell them to at a higher price!
If I was you I would go to the one click score card, pick the investing style you like and click on the (strong interest link). You will go to a new screen which will normally have several stocks to pick from. These are stocks that investing style likes, If after checking out the stock you decide that you like it to. Buy it, you at least know that there is interest in the stock!
We now come to how you are going to trade the stock, if at all.
There is no easy answer to this. Some people have more money than other's, some people can handle stress better than other people. If you are one of these people, I would go with X-Dev($30K), or AIM($10K), or a constant dollar plan($10K), or a constant ratio plan($10K). I almost forgot Buy and Hold($10K), and the new Buy and Hold and sometimes sell plans($10K).
If like me you have no ready cash but are going to invest new money each month. Note I am still two years away from investing. Here are the systematic investment plans I would go with at this time, Synchrovest, Modified Value Averaging, Value Averaging, Twinvest, Growth Dollar Cost Averaging, Dollar Cost Averaging. There are also Drip investment plans in some stocks for reducing commission costs. If you are interested in any of these Formula plans, you can come to my corner of the site at. http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=966
Hi, Irwin, yes they do. I am glad to see the last one, I had lost it.
Hi All, one of the things that have disturbed me about long term investing in single stocks is the risk of the company going bankrupt. I found a book Financial statement Analysis by Charles H. Gibson & Patricia A. Frishkoff that mentions a formula by Edward I. Altman. I put his name in a search engine and got lucky. I found this large web site http://www.defaultrisk.com/ And on it here http://www.defaultrisk.com/pp_score_14.htm is a download pdf file of the formula. Basicly you add different fiance ratio's together and if the final number is high enough. The company should not go into bankruptcy in the near future. now If someone can make a spread sheet that will download the data, we can test it.
Yes Niceboat, I am not shorting anything today. I need to let you know that I have never owned any stocks. I have been studying them for a long time though,especially this last two years. I am disabled, and it will take me about two more years just to get out of debt. My current plan is to start investing about $50 a month when I get out of debt. To be honest I don't think I would have the guts to short a stock, or to use margin.
PSs: after a very quick look at TXU, I think the stock will still be a long term short position. Just yesterday TXU dropped their dividend by 80%. Before TXU's price started dropping the dividend yield was a round 4%,This was due to TXU being looked at as a growth/utility stock. Now it will be looked at as a utility stock that is in trouble. I think over the next six months the stock will drop to less than $5, unless they raise the dividend in that time, the reason being that people will demand a much higher yield than before. So if you short the stock and buy a new call at the current price, you should be able to control your risk of a loss. If my guess is correct you should be able to have a gain of around 30% over that six months.
Sometimes it can be, but it is always risky. You normally have to make a decision on very little data,and you have to make it very fast. A short by its self has the potential of a unlimited loss. If I was to do a short, I would find a way to limit my loss. I think if I was just starting out ( and I would be if I tried it) I would set up a hedge by buying call options. That way I would know exactly what my losses would be. Here is a chart of a short play. You can see that by the time you notice that the stock is moving out of its price range it is moving very fast. So you don't have a lot of time to set up the short. You don't have time to find out why it is dropping, you just have to react.
Mr. Niceboat, I have to ask, why are you asking all these questions to Myst? Do you think he has a crystal ball up his sleeve? I think most of your questions could be answered by reading all the old messages. I also have the impression that you are new to investing, and probably should not be ether shorting or buying stock on margin,as they are both risky. It seem's to me that you are unsure of yourself, and are trying to lean on Myst for advice. Myst is only human, and one day his advice will be wrong. One must remember that all decision of buying and selling stocks rests with the investor himself and no one else, one cannot put a bad decision off onto someone else.
This is partially true with the X_Div program. The investor buys the program, the investor sets the parameters up, the investor makes a buy/sell decision on his own. It is my understanding that the parameters should be changed, only after you have had some bad buys/sells. Have you had some bad buys/sells?
Hi Myst, I thought that screen name looked like one of mine. Here is how to have your own screen name. After changing the critiera, click on file, then save as. you can put in a new name and a discription of what it should do.
Here is the best way to pass on your setup to other people. click on edit, then copy critiera to clipboard. What this does is put a url in the clipboard. You can then past that url into a message.
Here is a article on the stock screener. http://moneycentral.msn.com/articles/invest/refine/1311.asp
Say Myst I was basing my prediction on this. This is a email that I just sent to Jon Markman of MSN. I am interested in your take on it.
Hi Jon, It is starting to look like you got everything right in this Article http://moneycentral.msn.com/articles/invest/models/7760.asp , except for the Exchange. You should have said the $NYA.X . While it is still to soon to be sure that this is the beginning of the end of the bear. It does look like people are paying attention to that ten year average.
By the way you can see the ten year MA in the MSN Charting program. You don't have to load the data into excel, unless you want to.
Here is how to set it up.
Click on Analysis, then settings. On price Indicators select MA Envelope. Set Periods to 120, set Width to 0.00, this gives you one line, click Ok. Then click on Period and select 10 years or greater, with Period set to All Dates. If the $NYA.X goes through the 10 year MA. You can take a ruler and line up the lows of 1982, 1987, and 1990, this gives a upward trend line that should be in the neighborhood of 350 to 380. I think that trend line will be the next level of support. Also the $NYA.X may continue to bounce on the 10 year MA until the trend line meets the 10 year MA.
Here is a interesting chart to look at $INDU with Period set to All Dates.
Looks like that 420 is stronger than I thought.
I heard on the news the other day that Dallas is in the same shape.
Hi niceboat, I think most bear markets end on the newyork stock exchange $NYAX. I think when that index gets to around 350 the bear will be done.
Conrad. a bull try's to hook you with his horns, and flip you up into the air. a bear stands on its hind legs to attack, he bears down on you with his weight.
Hi grandbanks, try this spell checker. http://www.hotlingo.com/
Hi LH, Have you read the news http://www.quicken.com/investments/news/?p=CEFT&bookmark=0&archive=1 That's the only negative I could find. Look's like insider are starting to buy some stock around the $14 price level.http://www.quicken.com/investments/insider/?p=CEFT&tag=1 http://www.quicken.com/investments/seceval/?cmetric=intrinsic&cursym=&csym=CEFT&csym1=&a.... the price level looks ok now. Both naic's Established Growth strategy and Warren Buffett Way strategy look just about perfect. http://www.quicken.com/investments/strategies/?p=CEFT & http://www.quicken.com/investments/strategies/?p=CEFT&strategy=hagstrom&recstrat=naic
Hi Karw, the web site is owned by Christopher Lott, I believe. The book is by Braden Glett. The one thing I like is his example of investing more and more money into a losing stock.
Note Lichello does try to limit that, by keeping the shares and cash of one stock separate from each other.
Yes I like the idea of buying a new stock.
I don't think reverse scaling and AIM (modified Scaling)are comparable one is buying and one is selling.
The main reason for posting the link was that I believe the more different types of investment books one reads the better a investor one will become.
I wonder if there is a way to tell how much margin a stock has? Also how many short positions it has. I would think if a stock had a high margin and a lot of short positions, it would become very risky.