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Buffalo- if the pps drops to .90-.80s, of course I am a huge buyer.
Somehow, your narrative jumped the rails, Bolduc is a strong-persistent leader yet you try to portray him as THE impediment to share price appreciation. This is false as the share price is .99 today of some 70-74M shares and not .21 for some 20M shares of yesterday simply because of his bold persistent leadership. Proof of this is keeping the company on track for TWO key TSA approvals while managing to keep the doors open. So the hardest work is done. IMSC now has the guts to a platform, the recognition of superior performance of that platform and the beautiful gift of extensibility with that platform. This is fact and has been recognized thru TSA's CRADA(s) with IMSC, yet you portray that as almost NOTHING!?!?!?.
What is not to like about that...?
Now, the only thing standing in the way of rapid share price appreciation is the wet-blanket of ongoing dilution into every significant news event. IF you understand this, and I think you do, then to say you can't see the situation reversing is really a short circuiting in your thinking. Matter of fact, you thinking appears so flawed and in consistent that if I were YOU, I don't think I could own 1 share of this company.
Do you own shares or are you trading it?
Buffalo-- the TSA has ZERO interest in adding MORE nuclear ETDs that cost LESS than IMSC's B-220 to their fleet. If they had, they would have done so along time ago.
New S-M products must be certified, like any other.
Morpho can protest that their current fleet units cost less but contain nuclear material that TSA is currently using and therefore TSA must buy from Morpho--- this is a joke.
And TSA would have to issue an IDIQ for MORPHO, not "cut Morpho into" the IDIQ that IMSC has. You can't possibly think that TSA would do that after requesting NO NUCLEAR MATERIAL IN ETDs. Smiths would protest that in a wink. All of which the TSA requested both S-M to honor.
No, this protest gets flushed and fast. The TSA knows to the dollar exactly how much MORE valuable an IMSC B-220 is than a S-M current cert'd ETD is worth.
Think-- the answers are out there forming up right now.
Ya'll
- NO PRs until the M protest is gone-- by your own carping, NOTHING would happen IF any PR was released. Why? DMRJ will convert into that rise. SO, try to keep your tacts of attack STRAIGHT when bashing this innovative company.
-IMSC is the target of many; competitors are being severly hurt by IMSC's products. There is NO doubt about this. Further, competitors know that once IMSC delivers successful B-220 in bulk, THEY ( S-M) will be hurt even more.
- Many so called IMSC LONGS claim to know the market, know the product-scape yet they fail to realize or admit to the fact that IMSC has a train of products coming. Products that TSA is willing to help pay development costs, yet some think that this aspect is irrelevant(????!!!)
- There is no secret; the pps is NOT going to move much until the on-going, never ending dilution by DMRJ stops. Now, start the scenario-engines based on this point. There are many angles to consider.
- Its good to be highly desireable. Ask Raquel Welch about that. And this little company is exactly that: HIGHLY DESIREABLE. I don't know anymore than you do, BUT, I can extrapolate an obvious point off into the distance. We are sitting in that highly pre-profitable position right now. Sure the pps today is absymal, sure the pps is severly range-bound---and we all know why--ongoing dilution caps every energized rally to the point the stock has to reverse due to selling. You all know that. So work from that point forward!
-- Ted, try this number 375 ( just kidding- but fear not, there is no logic at work save the TSA knowing that IMSC needs time to build product.)
Best of CLEAR-CONGRUENT Thinking to ALL IMSC LONGS!
Acon consider this the price range per unit:
< 45K ( around list)
> 36K ( Smith-morpho price range on their prior IDIQs...note, range means close to that number)
I like 38K as it gives the client a "required" discount below list yet recognizes that a B-220 is a better performing machine ( lower cost of ownership) than either S- M machines AND there are NO NUCLEAR issues to worry about.
We all assume TSA would stick to the 560 units first, balance to follow but really, what drives that first number is the most immediate need/size. IE, there are 60 airports with 8 lanes that are exposed ( a light way of describing the situation).
But I think a recuse party needs to be sent to Ted's place because I can smell the smoke coming from his calculator. ( just joking Ted).
Zey- the losers know that their protest slows things down at a very critical time. And TSA knows that too. Our national security is at stake so I will guess that there is an amount of angry- hair standing up- on folks at TSA.
Additionally, should this cause a delay in the distribution of new products for airport security, you can be sure that those STANDING HAIRS will turn into something more. This can be reflected in language placed into new solicitations that specifically make it much harder for certain companies to respond.
On the other side, TSA wants a community of providers developing new technologies for security. Guess what- S- M failed to do that in a timely manner while IMSC did and continues to do, EXACTLY THAT.
I have never-ever gained a dam thing by pissing off a client and then trying to sell them something. Its sooooo dumb that it calls to question doing any business with them whatsoever. Such are the French. They think one statue and half of their fleet plus 2 of their generals are a debt that lasts forever. ( what- they slept thru WW1 and 2?)
Nowak-- all aspects are negotiable and you can be sure Dr. Jones knows ALL aspects as he likely created Morpho's winning big the last time around.
Deposit to initiate can be standard.
Balance due on shipment receipt is also possible.
And / or progress payments on % completed, another possible.
Really, Dr. Jones has all of this handled. The man knows just about everything there is to know. I think we can trust that IMSC is doing all the right things, we just have an enourmous amount of competitive headwinds to fly through.
And for good reason- Morpho is a loser. Smith's is in retrograde in ETD. And both think they "own" TSA. Not good guesses in my opinion. The first clue, TSA spec'd that NO NUCLEAR MATERIAL in your ETD was desired. Key word. And a word S-M failed to abide by.
Can't say they put themselves in the dog house, but if I were running S or M and all I had going for me was a protest over an ETD contract that makes doing EDS business that much harder--well, that's a lose-lose again prospect.
ROI- what everybody is failing to account for is this, TSA is aware of IMSC's total units per month production capacity and their possible extension of capacity.
Further, since the software inside the B-220 is "platform" based ( very proprietary) I do NOT expect IMSC to allow for contract builds of B-220s outside of their control.
Finally, we know that TSA indicated 560 units in Sept and a follow on IDIQ in October and as usual TSA missed both of those ( the malcontents here will blame Dr. Jones for that-LOL).
CEO Bolduc has stated that the $21M is not FOR the first 1170 units ordered.
Relax everybody. All ( save the unit price) will become known once Morpho is shown the door.
The Crowd takes up a new chant: "86" MORPHO NOW!
Brady- I did NOT say that. I cannot see how you can take THAT from what I just said.
Thanks North! I think you prove your thesis on the B-220's price scheme very well.
A couple of supporting thoughts:
1. IMSC knew that other bids would be submitted but would also be "undesired" due to the nuclear element in those said Smith's and Morpho ETDs.
2. My guess ( and its certainly conjecture) is that Morpho submitted a bid whose price was, lets guess, $36,000/unit. And IMSC submitted a bid for the B-220 whose price was NORTH of $36,000/unit.
3. Morpho's protest is based on two "prongs": a- Morpho's price/unit is lower than IMSC's winning bid per unit and b- Morpho's nuclear containing ETD units are on the line at Checkpoint and in use for cargo while currently containing nuclear material.
My last guess: Attention Morpho, when the TSA says: nuclear containing ETD units are undesired, that means they don't want them even if the price was $1/unit. Protest Quashed.
Side note to Ted-- my take, IMSC would never undercut their current list pricing on a QS-150 for a clearly superior B-220. That would make ZERO sense. IE we sell QS-150 for $28,000 list and a B-220 for $46,000 list but on this bid we'll sell you a B-220 for less than a QS-150???
But all of this will be pointed to but NOT spelled out ( confidential pricing info cannot and should not be made public, which I think the TSA has acknowledged in their documentation, this is SOP, in my opinion).
B9- there is NO provable linkage, but you can take it to the bank. I can cut and paste from the file just like you can, but you won't so BFD.
Capabilities published their "outline" for TSA that spec'd a 560 unit order and a follow on IDIQ. YOU, your fricken self, have referred to it, so don't pretend it does not exist. The IDIQ came to pass so the circumspectual evidence is right before your nose. Sniff-sniff.
It was just an outline, so who can say with full confidence that it expressed the intent of the TSA? I can. I just did. Again. Live with it.
Take this to the bank-- IMSC will be at least $3/sh with 120M shares outstanding by 12-1-15. I hear the cut and paste now...good. Its for real.
To all REAL IMSC LONGS WITH STONES- BEST OF THE VERY BEST LUCK IN 2015!
mas- perhaps you do NOT follow the TSA quite enough. When a CEO refers to pipelines and deadlines and event lines that are given to him by the TSA, he is correct and truthful at THAT time. Should the TSA change those timelines, eventlines etc. he cannot be held liable. Not sure you are familiar with the whims of the buyer but they are many and often defy any type of sales "radar". In TSA's case, end of the Fed. budget year is truthfully, a gigantic mess.
You can prove this for yourself by suing the company on the fantasy basis you presented here. ( who's the peter pan, you or Bolduc...)
Regarding the cargo market size "adventure", or as some here have said: lying to shareholders. Once again, it totally depended on TSA's grandfathered cargo certification list. But consider, IF there was anything actionable there, we would have heard about it by now, don't you think?
Re the $21M initial posting , and Bolduc's "echo'd" response that it did NOT match to the full 1170 unit order...this has been bounced around here at length. So get your scorecard out and mark down: $21M = 560 QS-B-220s. This matchs closely to TSA's document that showed intent to purcahse 560 units in Mid-Sept.'14 and then a follow on IDIQ execution in October of '14.
I think its fair to say that we investors all get pulled thru the muck of TSA's end of year attempts to DO WHAT THEY SAY. By the way, are you a large or small investor in IMSC?
Buffalo-- can figure you out...markets are always about the future. With that said, the market is telling us: $1/sh now go figure out how to clean up the cap structure and then pick up your reward.
As far as Bolduc's "tarnished reputation", totally disagree. I don't even see what you base that on...now if his one single off hand comment about the share price and dmrj's conversion stumping the share price-- understand we all human, we as shareholders want higher share prices today-yesterday and tomorrow. So does Bolduc but he also has to walk a tightrope; peeve off the huge debt holder and that "line" goes dry.
In terms of your comments about HANDHELDS being late...I assume you know that TSA didn't want IMX's QS-100 nor their 150. Their concept of operations didn't match the use of a hand held non-contact ETD unit. Plus another tech. reason, which is not open for discussion.
But TSA did buy hand held units from S-M...those units saw little to NO use. You might see a TSA line supervisor walking thru an airport with one slung over his shoulder but the use was very minimal. NOW, both S-M hand helds are NOT certified. BINGO-- this should turn on a light for you and all other IMSC shareholders. The opportunity is NOW there and waiting.
Right S-M are the ones MOST time challenged; their new swab ETDs will miss much of the current purchase cycle ( no IDIQ for them), their old hand helds are a joke, more like a movie prop. And IMSC is leaping ahead with the QS-150-E. I have no idea when the "E" data package will get a look by TSA, but my crazy guess is AFTER April'15 and BEFORE JULY1st.
Then you have the conveyor ETD multi-collector, dual mode, automated ETD system. Now, if you don't think or know that there is a huge market for that-- try swabbing hundred of packages a day that pile up around your station in the cargo screening room at FFs. Its absurd and its ALMOST against the law. Multi-billion opportunity there. Don't know about you, but I want to be around holding alot more IMSC shares for that.
Ah NO Buff, McGann developed the B-220 during his time as a consultant to IMSC.
Dr. Jones is the point man on any bid, that's a common CMO task. Think about it, if you were subing a bid, you would ask the man from Morpho to run that bid for you as HE knows the numbers Morpho had sub'ed. Of course you sign the bid and you are on top of it, but the CMO is the go to position.
If you hate the CEO, the CMO and the stock trajectory, what the heck are you doing still in it?
I get the conversion-replusion as its held by all longs. And I would guess mgt. too. But until a better looking dance partner agrees to the dance, then that is what it is.
A little bit of clarity- I have known the old IMX ceo as I was in and then out of that stock. Bolduc was the only one I spoke with after it became IMSC and the reason I invested into IMSC shortly after they sub'd for the India business. If I said 3 years ago, that was a mistake as it was more like 4.5.
Bolduc acquainted me with his strategic goals for the company, I then provided him with a contact in DC. I was impressed with him as a person and as a man with a plan. He has not disappointed me in any way. Remember, this stock is a huge risk but I also believe it to be a huge reward. (strategic target of $500M cap/ 100M shares...a lill ole 5-bagger from today but could easily be 5 cents in two months)
B9--pa-leese...try borrowing.
DSULLY- take any stock that goes from 8 cents to 99 cents while the float goes from 15.7M to 72M+, what do you have? A company that has grown greatly in value.
Do I dislike a $1 share price while the company holds a $162M IDIQ? No, I do NOT.
Why are we here today?
- dmrj ongoing convert took the float from 15M to 72M and the market thinks they are NOT done yet, so therefore any positive developments get washed away quickly.
- competitive pressure...and guess what-- Dr.Jones can speak to this better than any one else can, save Dr. McGann as they were the competition.
So how bright is the future? Dam bright if they clean up the cap structure. NO CEO in the world likes to ride around in a car that keeps floating higher and higher until there is no oxygen at all. Bolduc will work a better deal and when the market realizes that the float is NOT constantly rising, then and only then will the company's positive developments begin to be reflected in the pps.
Its obvious and its at hand.
Shi--I still own 9 cent shares bought when dmrj stepped into the breach. So please, don't try to guess my position.
As far as growing a pair-- that message still stands for any LONG in IMSC. And to bash either dmrj or CEO BOLDUC is B.S. and if this gets censored, that too is a pile of B.S. This is America, I read total crap here everyday that STANDS. Stands as total lying crap. Why is that?
You bought a stock that was of the highest risk of any stock on the market at the time. It was a pinkie, without a dollar, with tech. that TSA disliked. With an ex-ceo who resigned in sorta disgrace, with an ex ex ceo who was as stubborn as he was smart and who fought the TSA tooth and nail and lost. Almost lost his company.
Please, know who the hell you are talking to before you start your lecture. TED 101.
To LONGS WITH SACKS HOLDING 2 STONES- BRAVO!
To the penny anty censor-- SUCK IT UP PAL AND JOIN THE GESTAPO REUNION IN ARGENTINA!
Hum- the ETD units spec'd did not show an expiration date. However, TSA did give S-M units until the end of '16 for both passenger and cargo. That's why they developed new ionization engines without nuclear material inside.
Both NEW and uncertified S-M units have a long road ahead of them in the USA. In Euro lands, a much easier road and in China a "cheap" road.
In reality, swabbing as a mode of detection will be around for a while OR until a non-contact mode is ready for prime time. Imagine the QS-150_E to be the prime contender for the new standard. I am guessing, but knowing Dr. McGann's extreme knowledge will lead him to develop the LAST ETD UNIT ever needed, with a resolution and collection method that obsoletes all contenders. Once this is evident, IMSC will be acquired, in my opinion. I also think that 2015 is THE year.
Ceo Bolduc needs to cut the loose strings ( never ending float expansion), tighten up the operation ( increase production) and continue to roll up eye-popping sales contracts. You land a $162M IDIQ and you are a Super Bowl Level CEO/CMO ( Dr. Jones). But consider the odds stacked against you and all longs can be grateful ( S-M b.s. barrage, non stop dilution, super heavy interest loans, working month to month etc.)
Greatest of All LUCK to ALL IMSC LONGS!
Hum- don't give up hope-- the swabbing crew in the back at the cargo facility is worn out.
A new day is coming and believe this: automated cargo inspection using ETD is right around the corner.
To all LONGS--IMSC has the top mgt. team in trace detection, the widest - longest runway in ETD. Now, for LONGS to prosper, we need a refi that moves dmrj out of the continuing convert obstacle and requires them to convert once and or all or accept cash. Either way, and the stock will move right along with sales.
Do the math on what a $162M IDIQ means in terms of Sales PRs ( thanks again the sure footed, tireless work of Dr. Jones).
And less we forget, Dr. McGann has plenty of stuff about to move from workshop to data acquisition. And CEO Bolduc is likely working his magic to deliver a new finance package.
2015 is going to grow a brighter-faster-higher resolution-hand held-automated and integrated ETD products company in the world.
Greatest of Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!
Reno no way would anyone in their right mind sell shares. People can speak all they like but as long as IMSC has a $162M IDIQ with TSA then the path forward is much easier than the path behind us. What galls me, why would any shareholder not credit the pathfinder getting this company to right here, right now?
The market follows leaders that express and deliver on their strategic intent. This company is lucky to have that man at the helm. And a VP of Marketing who is just as skilled. AND a head of R/D who is equally skilled.
The Pharoh thought he killed the KING and then he was BUZZ'D!
Best of Better Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!
Buffalo please, you are so far over the top that you may never come back to reality. Ceo Bolduc is this company. I would wager that not more than 8-12% of shares feel the way you do.
IMSC's story is even more amazing when you consider not just where it came from and where it has went, but he did that with nothing but loans. To be fair, those loans now sit in our path. I think the entire world knows that.
The future of share price appreciation is very very bright once the interest convert has been mitigated. Isn't that plain as day to one and all?
Constantly trying to tear down the man that has built this company up really makes no sense whatsoever. Its unhealthy for one and all.
But looking to the future, the ceo has expressed well defined strategic intent; world-wide preference for IMSC ETD products. IMO, this leads to a fairly valued take out.
Here's what I expect to happen to 2015:
- refi relief that allows SP appreciation
- TSA IDIQ fills between 30 and 35%
- IMSC sends a new product to TSA for passenger and baggage AND cargo certification
-ECAC passenger and ECAC managed cargo use ETD sales
- toward end of 2015, the company begins to clean up debt
- by end of 2015 a "proposal" is made
I really don't want to see anything derail those events. Now to be fair, why don't you state your vision for 2015 WITHOUT the constant attacks on a CEO that in my opinion, has MORE than proven his diligence and dedication. I want that ceo rewarded very well for his effort. Try to remember, we are all imperfect human beings so if he offended you in the last cc, call him and ask him about that, I will guess that he is man enough to apologize for that.
Greatest Luck To ALL IMSC LONGS!
EDS and ETD-- NOT ETD. If he said 800M/yr for ETD, he was wrong. Flat out wrong. TSA would have to spend 350M/yr for ETD. Seriously, I never heard him say 800M/yr for JUST ETD.
And yes, I stand by his skill, talent and energy. Quit bashing him as it serves NO purpose.
Good Luck!
ZEY-- you did not appreciate what I said: removal of the interest convert. THAT is the stocks first problem.
Play DMRJ for a minute, guess what you will make next year on interest converts from shares sold? Hard to guess, but less than this year, as you pointed out, the stock price is capped and the market knows that. So price decay is going to happen if NOTHING changes. So I assume DMRJ is looking for a solution too.
But you are welcome to be un-happy. I am NOT happy either, but I am hopeful.
Good Luck!
Zey
- cargo is dead until the current certs expire in '16 OR TSA mandates a change based on a better mode of ETD. ( ding ding-- that is an IMSC potential!)
- balance of the world is not actively buying
- BUT europe will heat up, but my guess there, they will drag their feet to allow Smiths and Morpho machines compete for the business, IF, IF they still decide that Swabbing is the way to go.
- all DHS buys will come thru the TSA IDIQ with TSA. Those are frozen.
- Nordic markets are looking. But how many airports there- 5? 10? ( I don't know, just a guess). If they have 15 lanes per airport and buy 2 units /lane that's a 300 unit potential.
Its not lumpy, its SuperLumpy.
Best of The Very Best Luck to all IMSC LONGS!
I think there is a slight mix up, no freaking way were 800M$ of ETD units sold last year. NONE.
TSA is penciled in at 42% market share, the most active buyer and they bought how much last year? 1M 5M? For ETD replacements?
They'll buy about 80M to 100M in 2015, at 42%, that means that 58% of the market is about $138M and I doubt that #. And there will likely be much smaller amounts bought for cargo.
I think when you mix EDS w ETD you can see a $800M/market growing to a $1B yr. market.
But that aside, the estimation I saw was for 3 years at $330M. You cannot mix EDS with ETD- EDS think x-ray machines, ETD think B-220s.
Maebs-- true post! I am hella stoked for IMSC's prospects in 2015! The trick for us retail holders will be getting the interest convert removed-replaced-reduced. A RE of any sorts makes 2015 a great year to be an IMSC shareholder.
Best of The Very Best Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!
B9- OK, lets do this ourselves. Plenty of loose change flying around in ETD. But not many dollars.
So who knows of a sale #s made in ETD in cal. '14?
IMSC: 8-9M (?)
MORPHO: 10M (?)
SMITHS: 10M (?)
TTL GUESS: >28M, <30M
All guesses. Not likely correct. The point, TAM's are always estimates,not actuals because it does not re-occur with predicable regularity.
2015 Guesses:
IMSC: 80M ( ?)
MORPHO: 10 M (?)
SMITHS: 10 M (?)
TTL GUESS: > 90M, <100M
2016 Guesses:
IMSC: 120M
MORPHO: 10-20M
SMITHS: 10-20M
TTL GUESS: > 140M, < 160M
3 year TTL GUESS: >258M, < 290M
Were big secret sales made by either of IMSC's competitors around the world? Sure, and I will bet Dr.Jones has his finger on this. These are off the cuff guesses, surely wrong, but in the zip code.
Best of Better Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!
My goal point for IMSC is 75% of that old TAM. TAM estimations are shakey at best. But when TSA certs for Smiths-Morpho ETDs on the cargo list expire, the TAM will grow by leaps and bounds.
When TSA has a working non-contact ETD solution, THAT will become a full layer in their scheme and not a supplementary layer that ETD now is. The TAM will grow even larger.
TSA has requested an ETD non-contact solution for cargo and for passenger baggage. ( the swab-master in the back room at freight forwarding sites is begging for this). When they find THAT solution, the TAM will grow once more. And when TSA invests into a solution, it increases opportunities for that solution provider around the world.
The estimate of $330M was over 3 years. Was it conservative or was it optimistic? I saw it as conservative. Greatly conservative. Why? TSA was approaching a replacement cycle and a mode change for ETD ( Swab =retrograde, non-contact= ascending). Currently there are NO hand held non-contact ETDs approved for either cargo or passenger. That will change.
On my scorecard, IMSC's low side estimated capture of the TAM ( the one cited by ceo bolduc) currently stands at 49% and is likely to be higher. But a world wide market share analysis is something that I suggest the company speak about once the IDIQ is settled history.
The 330M figure was quoted over 3 years, not one year. For instance, were total sales last year, world wide $100M? Problem with estimating a TAM based on gov. budgets/replacement cycles is: terror subsides then sales down turn, terror rises then sales upturn.
The $330M figure I use is for 3 years. And I use $162M as IMSC's capture. Seems real to me.
Nick- 162M at low side margin of 45% is what number? Heck yes it de-risks plenty.
As to your comment about replacing mgt. Please. Do some DD as to who is on the BOD and who has brought an 8 cent a share company to a TSA $162M IDIQ, 2 CRADAs and a product develpment grant of $2, all the while they are figuratively bankrupt. And you want to replace them with "more urgent" mgt.?
Sorry Nick, your shares will be on the opposite side of the fight from my shares.
B9 conjecture is all we have. But give me your thoughts as to what they CAN say and what they should say, while the Morpho protest hangs overhead...and L-K re-re-reopening their "investigation"...
Good Luck saying anything...
My math:
- 3 year ETD market of $330M
- 2 year IMSC run rate will be $162M PLUS additional sales as they develop.
IMO- home run. Min, 49% of Market in 66% of the time frame, at minimum.
I guess we could argue at length over the definition of CRUSH, but that is how I see it.
Good Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!
Nick you are entitled to your opinion, but I am curious as to EXACTLY what that opinion is?
Do you own shares? You can vote with what you do with your shares.
I own plenty and my vote is: HOLD. I have no problems with mgt. Matter of fact, I think they are doing an amazing job, especially when you consider the circumstances they operated under. Now, they have de-risked the stock via a $162M IDIQ with TSA. A fact that you didn't pay much attention to nor do you seem to give anyone much credit for. Honestly Nick, that is freakin ODD.
Good Luck calling a BOD meeting. Count my shares voting with mgt!
Doc I don't think anyone is in the know as to what mgt. is doing. A few quick responses to your thoughts:
- ceo pegged 1/3 of $330M in T.A.M. for ETD over 3 years. They already CRUSHED that with $162,000,000 over 2 years! So mark that down on your card as a moon shot into the parking lot. And please, give at least a nod to Dr. Jones for his massive effort to bring that one into the "stall".
- their roadmap was given to them by TSA. No secret there. TSA wants non-contact and is willing to grant funding to spur that. Maybe that one comes home sooner than anyone thinks.
Seque- non-contact is IMSC's sweet spot. For years the company had a ceo who tried to "teach" the TSA about non-contact. He lost. Oddly, the pendulum has swung, the sea reversed and now non-contact is the new "black". THAT is where the real breakout value is for IMSC.
Since my nose is now itching, I believe that discussions maybe occurring right now regarding this. Put yourself in the shoes of an EDS CEO that may or may not be located in the NE part of the country. If your roadmap showed great opportunity for integration of ETD into your EDS line and it HAD to be non-contact in nature might you not look to get in the door at IMSC in some manner? (as the old ceo might say swabs don't "suck"-pun intended).
You are right, dmrj will cap off any pop. They are due a shipment in early Jan. I just wished they understood how much they are deminishing their own future by pouring shares onto every appreciation fire. But, its their right and the ceo's job to resolve that. I think he will.
Best of Better Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!
B9 so you think they gave up? Waving the white flag? How do you suppose they prosper by zipping things up at IMSC? Just ignore the protest and continue to PR gov. wins? Post the same reply to L-K?
I am not taking a company line. I am offering my thoughts as to what MIGHT be happening.
Silence, from a small company under immense attack, happens for a reason, IMO. I threw out some guesses. But you want them to commit public suicide. Nice thinking.
Good Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!
B9 L&K attacking, Morpho protesting, DMRJ converting, CEO negotiating, R/D Busy, Sales Proposing, Prod.Stalled, GOV SALES FROZEN, FUNDS gone. Merry Christmas.
Not sure they can do anything except sell QS-150s and that product is in retrograde.
Its go deep, stay inside, work the refi interests ( ceo referred to a plenty of interest during cc), gets bids out to sales opportunities.
My guess, we hear plenty when the protest is quashed. And it will be.
Problems we investors face are: end of qtr means more dilution/interest which caps positive Jan. events, cash had to flow into IMSC from somewhere to keep operations flowing ( ?).
OR
They could possibly be in deep talks.
Best of Better Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!
Pulp et al...you are spot on. In my opinion, they do not have a sales problem ( see $162M IDIQ) they have a production problem.
Problems:
- attacks by competitors in varying ways, these would include stock shorts, strategic shorts, L-K etc.
- production capacity as it will take a 3rd shift to deliver more than 300 units/month
- no cash, debt growing, at 65-75M
- on-going debt interest conversion into 8 shares scares away new investment
- convergence point with temp. debt holder ( bam) approaching, 23M owed end of march
- temp. debt holder owns the IP if company defaults
Positives/Drivers:
- fully approved, industry leading ETD product that is #1 around the world for both active sectors ( gov & private/cargo)
- superior product pipeline w/ vast lead in non-contact ETD
- top notch sales-marketing dept. ( Dr. Jones was the man at Morpho- you can't buy that experience anywhere today)
- top notch R/D capability ( Dr. McGann pioneered trace detection and is perhaps a top 2-3 authority in the world on ETD.
- ongoing CRADA w/ TSA
- $2M grant to spur R/D for follow on products w/ TSA
- ceo that specializes in finance
if we had 70M shares out today, and we are 65M in debt ( guess), with no cash, our value is our: (current contracts/margin % on current contracts)+ IP value +applicable n.o.l. - debt of 65M / 70M. The backwoods Uncle Si calculations as i fill in the above:
162M/ .45% = about 73M
IP, say : about 50M ( who really knows how to value that)
NOL, say: about 30M to the right buyer who continues building current products
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
About 153M
- 68M
------------------
About 85M
Divided by 70M shares, about $1.21
Buy out premium I use is usually 4-6 times sales, which we cannot use in this case, so a SP premium of 30-80% means a value ranging from $1.50 ish to $2.17/share- ish plus 20% or minus 30%. This is the lunch napkin analysis but I would love to hear Doc Detroit's adroit calculation. I would say today we are undervalued or not. ( its that darn confusing)
Best of The Very Best Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!
Brady B- take a bow, finally the voice of reason!! Thank you for saying what needed to be said: don't trade your life-preserver until you have a boat. How foolish would he be to NOT have backing going forward- ah, Hugely-majorly-ghastly-dumbly and uug-lee foolish.
Everyone knows that dmrj's converts are capping S/P. That is the deal everyone bought. Further, honoring your agreement is important if you want to keep making agreements.
Everyone needs to chill, think a bit and hang loose. Go bowling, kill a moose with your bare hands, swim to Cuba ( for Fidel), climb Everest backwards--but calm the heck down.
Seriously, the ceo needs us, we need him, the tsa needs IMSC- Smith and Morpho don't. Thems the sides and if you want to step over the line, be my guest but you'd be a fool.
The Best of the Greatest Luck to all REAL IMSC LONGS!
Buffalo If I may interject. I believe ceo bolduc was directed by tsa to qualify for cargo certification first as it had a near term expiration approaching for etd. And it also had the latest specification for etd.
A salient problem that you have to consider: tsa never disclosed a specification for passenger etd use. Tsa lead IMSC down this path. And you cannot ignore the regulatory agency especially when they said: we won't buy anything from you till sept. of 2014, which tsa also missed.
So any ceo would say: go after what is known and where we have the most opportunity that is closest at hand.
In my opinion, the ceo did the right thing. Sure, it hasn't turned out to generate the sales everyone expected but knowing what was available then, he did the right thing.
Think about this: how angry would you have been IF the ceo had targeted passenger while ignoring cargo and cargo was the niche where IMSC product could have been sold.
I think you have to be reasonable with what has transpired. And truthfully, the only reason the stock has not appreciated is because of dmrj's on-going converts. That is the issue that needs to be cleared to allow for rapid growth in the S/P.
Best of Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!
Hello Nick just to be clear, there was NO open market for passenger when IMSC entered the cargo market certification process. Tsa had displayed expiration dates for passenger certified etds and open idiqs for the makers of those etds. Just to be extra clear, the current 2 etd's used by tsa have not expired (certification) but the backing idiqs to purchase replacement model etds has expired.
Conversely, cargo did have 4 etd units expiring earlier than passenger. Tsa then changed to retire only 2. So IMSC was the victim of those changes, in hindsight.
Not sure how up you are on IMSC and dmrj, but the lending has been ongoing. The company made agreements, received the benefits ($) and has continued to operate, advance and benefit from those lending agreements.
I think its fair to say that the market is saying: resolve your financial structure and we are will buy your stock. Keep the ongoing convert in place and we won't buy your stock.
Early buyers are now stymied by the situation as appreciation in snyc with positive developments has stopped yielding increases in the share price.
I am more than hopeful that this will change because I believe market forces want that change and quickly as its apparent to one and all, cap structure is the biggest ( only?) impediment to rapid growth at IMSC. I hope this helps.
Best of Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!
Board- some clarity re: cargo.
At the time IMSC received cargo approval for the B-220, tsa had 4 units set to expire on jan.1'14 on the approved etd cargo list. All were from Morpho/Smith's.
Then, tsa revised that list keeping a unit from Morpho and one from Smith's in service, thus dramatically shrinking the total available market for etd sales to cargo.
I think Buffalo and others would have initiated legal actions within seconds of finding out the April of 2013 conf. call was all a lie, don't you? I know I would have. But in no way can the ceo be held accountable for tsa's changes to its approved cargo list. These are facts and not disputable. Was this a blow to sales momentum- of course, it limited potential from 1000s to less than a hundred, at best. Please, lets not try to rewrite history as it is a fruitless quest.
Further, the ceo actually spoke to this revision by tsa during a conf. call after the April13 conf. call. Seriously, if they were lying at the time, don't you think competitors would have put L-K legal onto the case within days???
So lets get past it, its over and you have no point to make regarding that.
In terms of NOW...well, I will guess that during a protest period there can be NO PRs about sales to other arms of dhs that might purchase from IMSC ( border for instance.)
Additionally, the world knows that debt and dmrj's conversion to shares has stopped SP appreciation. Dmrj especially knows this. And here's a guess- they don't like it either.
So what can be done re: getting out of SP retrograde?
- all agreements must be honored, that's a given.
- I am guessing Morpho's protest will resolve within 45 days of the filing
- meanwhile, I am guessing other interested parties are speaking with the company
Look, nobody except IMSC competitors want to stop this company from achieving its full potential that starts with filling a $162M idiq with tsa. Further, the fact that ceo Bolduc achieved what few others have achieved greatly qualifies him to lead this company to resolution. I think I can easily say, the security detection industry is watching IMSC, if not casually talking about them and or to them.
Let the protest dissolve away, let production continue to ramp, let the other arms of dhs order product, let a refi package improve debt and let dmrj convert their first loan to shares and get that out of the way. Then we get to eat. Sorry if that does not match your timeline but its the only one that makes sense and honors all obligations. Surely you see that getting tangled up in court while trying to deliver product and create new products would strangle this company- I do.
Merry Christmas Everyone! And Best of Luck in the New Year to ALL IMSC LONGS!
KB wise words indeed. We have a small trouble in front of us, lets not turn it into a bigger one.
Facebook took severe hits from a shareholder friendly law firm, ran them out of town and are now suing said firm for malicious prosecution.
What I find unconscionable is IF an IMSC shareholder joined their action, that shareholder needs to have their head examined.
Best of the Best Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!