My goal point for IMSC is 75% of that old TAM. TAM estimations are shakey at best. But when TSA certs for Smiths-Morpho ETDs on the cargo list expire, the TAM will grow by leaps and bounds.
When TSA has a working non-contact ETD solution, THAT will become a full layer in their scheme and not a supplementary layer that ETD now is. The TAM will grow even larger.
TSA has requested an ETD non-contact solution for cargo and for passenger baggage. ( the swab-master in the back room at freight forwarding sites is begging for this). When they find THAT solution, the TAM will grow once more. And when TSA invests into a solution, it increases opportunities for that solution provider around the world.
The estimate of $330M was over 3 years. Was it conservative or was it optimistic? I saw it as conservative. Greatly conservative. Why? TSA was approaching a replacement cycle and a mode change for ETD ( Swab =retrograde, non-contact= ascending). Currently there are NO hand held non-contact ETDs approved for either cargo or passenger. That will change.
On my scorecard, IMSC's low side estimated capture of the TAM ( the one cited by ceo bolduc) currently stands at 49% and is likely to be higher. But a world wide market share analysis is something that I suggest the company speak about once the IDIQ is settled history.
