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Believe me, I want to be wrong.
I want a rally--which would mean that the Central Bankers of the world wake up and start cutting rates.
NOW
More capitulation needed. Like 2000 more points
ZIPI chart
nice
So many Bottom Busters.
Watch for Oppenheimer research report on NCC this coming week.
SOV chart
UYG--watch this Financial ETF tomorrow
SKNN
NCC --fishing that bottom
NCC chart
What is the story on RBDC?
Why the beheading?
Chart for FRPT
ABAT could be putting in a Double Bottom.
Thanks for the heads up. Looks like a play
ABAT chart
Scans, WAMUQ, AXTG, LEHMQ, NCC, ESLR
AXTG
LEHMQ
NCC
ESLR
Good news for WAMUQ tomorrow. Thanks, Tony.
A trader's dream-[-LEHMQ
Bad news for the Banks
SEC, FASB Resist Calls to Suspend Fair-Value Rules (Update2)
By Jesse Westbrook
Enlarge Image/Details
Sept. 30 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission probably will resist calls to suspend the fair-value accounting rules that some members of Congress blame for exacerbating the global financial crisis, people familiar with the matter said.
The SEC and Financial Accounting Standards Board today issued ``clarifications'' on how banks should interpret existing rules requiring them to review assets each quarter and report losses if values decline. A moratorium isn't being considered, said the people, who declined to be identified because the plan hasn't been completed.
Congressmen, banking lobbyists and companies including American International Group Inc. have urged the SEC to suspend fair-value accounting, saying it forces firms to report losses they never expect to incur. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and other proponents say removing the rule would erode confidence that firms are owning up to losses.
``In the past couple of weeks, fair-value accounting has been under attack,'' JPMorgan Chase & Co. analyst Dane Mott wrote in a report today. ``Blaming fair-value accounting for the credit crisis is a lot like going to a doctor for a diagnosis and then blaming him for telling you that you are sick.''
SEC spokesman John Nester declined to comment. FASB spokesman Neal McGarity didn't return a phone call seeking comment.
House Rejection
Representative Todd Tiahrt, a Kansas Republican, said the House probably would have approved a $700 billion bailout of financial companies yesterday had the legislation included a suspension of fair-value accounting. The House rejected the measure 228-205.
It would have passed ``easily'' if the rules had been suspended, Tiahrt, who opposed the legislation, said today in a Bloomberg Television interview.
Bernanke said in Sept. 23 testimony before the Senate Banking Committee that if regulators repeal the rules, ``nobody knows what the true mark-to-market price is.''
Fair-value rules require companies to determine how much assets are worth based on what they could expect to sell them for on the open market.
``Suspending the mark-to-market prices is the most irresponsible thing to do,'' said Diane Garnick, who helps oversee more than $500 billion as an investment strategist at Invesco Ltd. in New York. ``Accounting does not make corporate earnings or balance sheets more volatile. Accounting just increases the transparency of volatility in earnings.''
`Unrealistic Prices'
Anne Canfield, executive vice president of the Consumer Mortgage Coalition, counters that businesses have been forced to ``mark down their assets to unrealistic fire-sale prices,'' because trading has dried up. Canfield, whose group represents mortgage lenders, urged the SEC to suspend fair-value rules ``immediately'' in a Sept. 29 letter to the agency.
The SEC and FASB, in today's statement, encouraged companies to rely more on their own judgments, such as expected cash flows, in determining the current value of assets that aren't trading. The regulators also said price quotes provided by brokers when markets are frozen may not be the most reliable way to determine how much securities are worth.
Norwalk, Connecticut-based FASB, which writes U.S. accounting rules, is preparing ``additional interpretive guidance on fair-value measurements'' to be released this week, the SEC said. FASB will discuss fair-value accounting at its board meeting tomorrow.
Bankers Association
The American Bankers Association, a trade group representing lenders that has lobbied the SEC over fair-value accounting, praised the agency's clarifications, saying they will ``help auditors more accurately price assets,'' according to a statement released today.
The collapse of the subprime-mortgage market has contributed to more than $500 billion of losses and writedowns at global financial companies. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson is seeking authority from Congress to ease the crisis by buying mortgage-securities and other assets from banks.
U.S. Senate leaders and President George W. Bush vowed today to revive the $700 billion financial-rescue plan after the House rejected the legislation yesterday.
To contact the reporter on this story: Jesse Westbrook in Washington at jwestbrook1@bloomberg.net.
Where is the real breakout on AXTG?
Can Clay do a chart?
Bottom Buster? AXTG NCC
NCC
AXTG hit scan today, SA/\. Late in the day is when the volume came in. Might be one to watch at the open tomorrow.
Agree with you, bum. I am betting that when the Bailout goes through, the volatility and the availability of cheap financials will subside.
Then, these microcaps that are getting clobbered when someone sells to play where the action is--the bounce or bottoms will be in place.
Just an opinion.
Trying to find out why IWEB is down. Calling the company up now. IWEB only has 20 Million shares o/s and did $19 Million in revenues in 2007.
WOndering if someone who had some sizable position in IWEB just wanted out to play the cheap financials for trading and they were stuck in an illiquid stock.
I smell opportunity-but I want to talke to someone first at the company. Left a message.
Hey, bum! Check this one out for a bounce!
IWEB
Watching IWEB down here, JUICE>
Chart on ZNCM
URBN chart
Urban Outfitters looks like its run is over. Another research downgrade--and it is toast.
I decided to join the PUT buyers... wish me luck.
RBRM to the moon!
Ok--to a nickel....
Still Waiting at WaMu
By Morgan Housel
September 25, 2008
Washington Mutual, Inc.
The Investment Opportunity of the Decade
There's been so much rumpus over the bailout debate in Washington during the last several days that the market has paid little attention to the actual banks the program is designed to save.
One bank dangling on the brink that desperately needs breaking bailout news quickly? Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM).
As far as the big banks go, WaMu is about as careworn as it gets … or at least that's how the market perceives it. It'll cost you $6.15 million to insure $10 million worth of WaMu for five years, plus an extra $500 grand a year to boot. Shares fell another 30% or so on Wednesday after S&P cut its credit rating to "poor quality," or financial jargon for "dead man walking."
What happened to a freakin' buyout!?
But, wait a minute, whatever happened to WaMu being sold? That was the topic of the day last week before the bailout became front and center!
Well, a looming buyout is partially what sparked the downgrades. As S&P put it, "The downgrade was due to the increased likelihood that a potential sale of the company may not involve the whole company …" If parts of the weighed-down company stick around, odds are that common shareholders will be left holding the bag.
JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), Citigroup (NYSE: C), Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC), and HSBC have at least been approached about their interest in buying the Seattle-based thrift, but we still haven't heard a concrete word from anyone regarding a potential sale. Why not?
For one, it's unlikely we'll see any moves from big banks until there's clarity as to what the mother of all bailouts will look like. The terms of the bailout -- what price assets will be bought at and how much (if any) equity will have to be forfeited to the Treasury -- are still unknown.
Next buyer … U.S. of A.?
But wait … what about the bailout itself? Couldn’t the Treasury buy toxic assets from WaMu's books, freeing it from a good part of the headache that's caused its downward spiral? Perhaps, and that's where things get interesting.
Clean up WaMu's books, and you've actually still got a pretty good franchise with a solid deposit base. Once the toxic junk gets jettisoned, you better believe swarms of banks and buyout funds are going to want a piece of the action. Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) and Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), now that they've been granted bank-holding-company status, might be interested in bits and pieces. Or perhaps Blackstone (NYSE: BX) might take a nibble now that the Fed has loosened the restrictions on bank ownership.
The truth is, no one really knows what the future of WaMu will be, only that it'll likely be decided within the month. If you're into big-stakes gambling, WaMu's for you. If you have a sliver of financial responsibility in you, enjoy this show from the sidelines
Still Waiting at WaMu
By Morgan Housel
September 25, 2008
Washington Mutual, Inc.
The Investment Opportunity of the Decade
There's been so much rumpus over the bailout debate in Washington during the last several days that the market has paid little attention to the actual banks the program is designed to save.
One bank dangling on the brink that desperately needs breaking bailout news quickly? Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM).
As far as the big banks go, WaMu is about as careworn as it gets … or at least that's how the market perceives it. It'll cost you $6.15 million to insure $10 million worth of WaMu for five years, plus an extra $500 grand a year to boot. Shares fell another 30% or so on Wednesday after S&P cut its credit rating to "poor quality," or financial jargon for "dead man walking."
What happened to a freakin' buyout!?
But, wait a minute, whatever happened to WaMu being sold? That was the topic of the day last week before the bailout became front and center!
Well, a looming buyout is partially what sparked the downgrades. As S&P put it, "The downgrade was due to the increased likelihood that a potential sale of the company may not involve the whole company …" If parts of the weighed-down company stick around, odds are that common shareholders will be left holding the bag.
JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), Citigroup (NYSE: C), Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC), and HSBC have at least been approached about their interest in buying the Seattle-based thrift, but we still haven't heard a concrete word from anyone regarding a potential sale. Why not?
For one, it's unlikely we'll see any moves from big banks until there's clarity as to what the mother of all bailouts will look like. The terms of the bailout -- what price assets will be bought at and how much (if any) equity will have to be forfeited to the Treasury -- are still unknown.
Next buyer … U.S. of A.?
But wait … what about the bailout itself? Couldn’t the Treasury buy toxic assets from WaMu's books, freeing it from a good part of the headache that's caused its downward spiral? Perhaps, and that's where things get interesting.
Clean up WaMu's books, and you've actually still got a pretty good franchise with a solid deposit base. Once the toxic junk gets jettisoned, you better believe swarms of banks and buyout funds are going to want a piece of the action. Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) and Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), now that they've been granted bank-holding-company status, might be interested in bits and pieces. Or perhaps Blackstone (NYSE: BX) might take a nibble now that the Fed has loosened the restrictions on bank ownership.
The truth is, no one really knows what the future of WaMu will be, only that it'll likely be decided within the month. If you're into big-stakes gambling, WaMu's for you. If you have a sliver of financial responsibility in you, enjoy this show from the sidelines
If RBRM can get some more details on their growth in sales, and show they are cash flow positive, we may have a winner.
ABK getting interesting with the bailout and all
Charts mean nothing during incredible situations like this.
Pretty chart, though.
The short selling ban is only until Oct 2
Good try--but no politics here.
Things are looking up for AIG
WM will probably be bought out before the end of the weekend.
WaMu May Get Bids From JPMorgan, Citi, Bank America (Update1)
By Elizabeth Hester and Yalman Onaran
Sept. 18 (Bloomberg) -- JPMorgan Chase & Co., Citigroup Inc., Bank of America Corp. and Wells Fargo & Co. may bid for parts of Washington Mutual Inc., the biggest U.S. savings and loan, three people with knowledge of the discussions said.
Buyers may be interested only in pieces of Seattle-based WaMu, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the talks are private. Wachovia, the fourth-largest U.S. bank, meanwhile was reaching out to Morgan Stanley to negotiate a merger, a person familiar with the companies said.
Banks may have to merge to survive after the global credit crunch drove Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. into bankruptcy, Merrill Lynch & Co. into a buyout by Bank of America and American International Group Inc. into a government takeover. Lenders, including San Francisco-based Wells Fargo, are scouting for assets to acquire at beaten-down prices now that stock- market declines have wiped out more than $1 trillion in market value from U.S. companies.
``If we could get some deals done, that will add some confidence to the market,'' said Jack Ablin, who helps manage about $55 billion as chief investment officer of Harris Private Bank in Chicago. `` Banks are as cheap as they've been ever, relative to the rest of the market.''
Brad Russell, a spokesman for Washington Mutual, declined to comment yesterday, as did JPMorgan spokesman Joseph Evangelisti and Wells Fargo spokeswoman Julia Tunis Bernard. Officials at Citigroup and Bank of America in London also declined to comment.
`Fear and Risk'
WaMu, whose market value has plummeted 85 percent this year on losses tied to subprime markets, is drawing interest because of its 2,300 branches and $143 billion in retail deposits, the people familiar with the matter said. Potential buyers wouldn't be willing to take on the company's mortgage-related investments, whose losses may total $19 billion over the next 2 1/2 years, according to WaMu's estimate.
``Any of those deals potentially takes out a little bit of the fear and risk of the market,'' said Jaime Peters, an equity analyst at Morningstar Inc. in Chicago. ``We have a lot of fear in the market that is causing stocks to trade beyond a fundamental basis and can hurt the financial system.''
WaMu took a step toward selling itself yesterday when its biggest shareholder, TPG Inc., agreed to waive a $1.5 billion payment it had negotiated if the lender is sold. WaMu accepted a $7 billion TPG infusion in April, after rebuffing a takeover offer by JPMorgan Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon.
``Our goal is to maximize the bank's flexibility in this difficult market environment,'' Fort Worth, Texas-based TPG said in a statement.
WaMu advanced 12 percent to $2.26 at 8:42 a.m. in New York. Its 85 percent skid this year is the biggest in the 24-company KBW Bank Index.
TPG Investment
Morgan Stanley analyst Betsy Graseck wrote in a Sept. 14 report that JPMorgan would benefit from a presence in the West and Southeast, home to most of Washington Mutual's branches. ``A potential acquisition of WM would be a strategic positive for JPM,'' wrote Graseck, who rates the shares ``overweight.''
Washington Mutual is being advised by Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Group Inc., a person familiar with the talks said. Goldman, which advised WaMu on the TPG investment, declined to comment through spokeswoman Andrea Rachman.
Wells Fargo is looking for acquisitions at ``reasonable'' prices, Chief Executive Officer John Stumpf said Sept. 10. The bank has said it favors smaller companies that carry less risk than big purchases. Yesterday, Wells Fargo said the bank doesn't comment on rumor or speculation.
Morgan Stanley, Wachovia
Morgan Stanley, the second-largest U.S. securities firm after Goldman, is weighing a merger with Wachovia and several other banks as it seeks to regain investor confidence, people familiar with the matter said.
John Mack, Morgan Stanley's chief executive officer, received a call from Wachovia yesterday indicating interest, said one of the people, who declined to be identified because the talks aren't public and may end without an agreement. Such a deal is one option being considered and the New York-based firm also is seeking ways to limit short sales of its stock, said the person.
Wachovia, based in Charlotte, North Carolina, has a market value of $19.7 billion, 18 percent less than Morgan Stanley's $24.1 billion.
Wachovia Chief Executive Officer Robert Steel, hired in July to replace Kennedy Thompson, is cutting $1.5 billion in expenses and reducing risk to cope with mounting losses from Wachovia's $122 billion of option adjustable-rate mortgages.
Seeking Solutions
``The smartest people at this firm are focused on solutions,'' said Mark Lake, a spokesman at Morgan Stanley. Wachovia spokeswoman Christy Phillips-Brown said it was bank policy not to comment on ``market rumors or merger speculation.'' The New York Times reported earlier that Wachovia contacted Mack.
Analysts and investors said the flurry of deals and potential acquisitions this week stems in part from the work of U.S. regulators. Officials, seeking to avoid other bailouts or bank failures, would prefer to see companies combine.
``If you have issues, you are being encouraged to find a partner,'' said Greg Donaldson, director of portfolio strategy at Donaldson Capital Management in Evansville, Indiana, which has more than $300 million under management.
GOLD ETF shows the shine
If you have cajones, you can make big money trading now.
As for me, I am suffering from "shrinkage" like in the Seinfeld episode.