Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Doma - I need your wisdom ....
Let's assume for a second that an enterprise (a large business) has TPM PCs all over their building(s), and it also has an Embassy Trust Server (or two) performing all of the Utility functions described in the 3-pager for a company.
Wouldn't the ETS database housing knowledge of all of the different trusted user workstations (and/or mobile TPMs) within the network, have to also maintain the underlying association of the assigned credentials (permissions), and would that be maintained by user or by workstation? That's the first question.
Since there must be some record of these credential assignments and keys maintained outside of each PC (TPM) ~ otherwise how would you be able to recover, transition, or disable ~ would that not by default make this ETS database the trusted network's asset database of record (DBOR)?
And, would that not further imply that there are a whole set of management utilities associated with what this DBOR, or that would need to exist for things like adding a new user, disabling old users, assigning/changing accessable (permissioned) software stacks, etc.?
Am I making any sense?
T123
Yaya - I don't nip. I pound. I massively consume. I've even been known to remove a seed or two in my quest to see the little people popping out of the craters in the 'Dark Side of the Moon' poster I once had.
But, I do not nip......... ever!
Carlos "Now Deploying" - How long have we all waited for that?
Since I have complained (in the past) about how long it's taken for these words to actually show up this way on a press release, I would be remiss if I did not take a moment here to acknowledge this long-awaited, and monumentally important headline.
From here on out, there can be no doubt in anyone's mind that Wave product is actually shipping into the marketplace. While many believed it, this PR confirmed it.
I gotta tell ya ~ "Now Deploying" is music to my ears, and worthy of a moment of quiet reflection of what we've all been through to see this day come to pass.
October 22nd, 2003 marks the day that Wave switches from being a development stage company to being a Market Leader ~ a title they will likely not relinquish any time soon.
I am happy! I am content! And, I am quietly accumulating.
Congratulations to all of you, but especially those of you that I've known through these boards for over 6 - 7 years now. Although it's possible (not likely) that things can still go wrong, we've all waited for this day for a very long time.
Tampa123 ~ p.s. But no margin ever again
The reason(s) we're not moving up...
Over the past couple of months, Wave has announced an in the box relationship with Intel, NSM, Infineon, and a downloadable support suite for IBM and HP. This announcement covers TPM capable boxes only, and from what many out there know today, it's a software only utility solution for a box that, to everyone else's knowledge, doesn't have any guidance around, not exactly sure what the new board/box does (other than protect your computer like IBM's product and they don't use Wave's stuff), and there's even other similar (on the surface) solutions being offered. We're talking average Joe investor here, not us who follow the company's progress minute-by-minute.
Now, if you couple that with what people in the investor world may have known, or thought they knew about Wave:
1. I thought they were a security chip company.
2. I thought they were a metering chip.
3. For someone who's pushed hardware for so long, why is their specific product offering software only?
4. Aren't they always spending money and making none?
5. If you listen to all of Wave's CCs,
a. things are always progressing nicely,
b. the market's always just now catching up to them,
c. they never give guidance (because they can't),
d. they always promise that we'll hear some pretty cool
announcements over the next couple of months that either
rarely materialize (Intel = exception, not rule) or their
definition of cool doesn't equal ours.
.... there's no wonder why the investment community is, at minimum confused, and at best ~ cautious!
Even some of us aren't 100% sure what Wave is going to be when it finally grows up:
1. Is EII dead, or will it only be used for the most demanding security projects?
2. Will EII be the chipset that the market will evolve into, or does Wave have to get more money, go back to the drawing board, or give away its IP to someone else who can fund it just to keep its overall vision alive? (This is something Wave was always willing to part with anyway)
3) If the existing TPMs are not open and programmable, Like EII, how are they able to do anything other than what they were initially programmed to do? ~~~ Manage keys securely.
Look! Bottom Line is there are some facts about Wave that we all need to come to grips with:
1) While they may to some extent control their own destiny, they certainly don't control adoption and rollout schedules.
2) They can't give any guidance, because of the fact just stated above.
3) All they can announce is what they've already announced:
a) They've got a utility solution that offers some value to
every TPM.
b) Almost every major OEM agrees to some extent, but to what
extent, is not going to be revealed fully until either
Microsoft's product roadmap is layed out, or enough
enterprises adopt the technology early to warrant more
press, or Premium Service offerings.
c) We're in the box, which throughout OEM history has meant
first mover market acceptance.
SO WE WAIT! AND WE WAIT!, and wait ...
What are our valid fears or concerns?
1) The delays are just giving the big boys a chance to come up with their own solutions, even if they don't work as well as Wave's, ~ and more importantly ~ the fear is this will continue to happen
2) Wave will run out of money, or sell the company out of need. (This one isn't likely IMO, but I'm being objective remember)
3) Activist groups will tie this up indefinitely, or at least make this another 2 - 5 year slog.
4) That our family members are never going to get an appreciable amount of their investment back for at least 5 more years.
And finally, what are we confident in:
1) That this sucker is the next killer app, and will be adopted ubiquitously.
2) It's only a matter of when, not if
3) Patience = Prosperity
See - Once you put it all in the right perspective, it's the last part that matters most ------ RIGHT?
We all may think some of these things, but the one thing we know, is the last one, two and three
Have a great day everyone!
T123
Maybe the secret additive was Hoffa /e
Boy - What an arduous investment. /e t123
I never saw this before. Maybe some of you did...
http://www.scmmicro.com/ir_en/pdf/CorporateProfileEN.pdf
twinkiedefense - I'm sure we all learned some valuable lessons since 2000.
2148 - Temporarily out of favor maybe, but not fallen /e
Maybe that site is an old site that I accessed????
Gilder on Hughes Network site
The Future of Broadband - Hear author Geoerge Gilder
http://www.hns.com/default.asp?CurrentPath=corporate/home.htm
Hmmmmmm!
T123
Logan, Awk - thanks /e
OT - Can you put someone on ignore only if you're an IHub member?
LuckytofindWAVX - What? Have another person travel as much as Steven does? Can we afford that?
regards,
t123
cmf and DJ - The trick is not when to get in, but when to get out. Many of us back in 88 - 89 were thrilled to get Wave for under $4. DJ - you should be thrilled too, as long as you don't have short-term needs for this money. If you're just trying to make a quick buck, you might ~ who knows. But you might not also. This has been a long slog for some of us.
However, what we've learned (at least I hope we have) is to pick a number that you'd be happy with selling the shares for, and no matter what happens, when that number hits, if you sell at least half of the shares, then you'll stay a fairly happy man.
But, if you get caught up like we all did, then you'll be a wavoid too
Anyway, if you have that kind of money to lay out at this point in your life, then you've obviously not made the same mistakes that many of us have.
Good Luck, and I hope you're worth a million bucks someday from these shares alone. Because if you are, I'm going to be unbelievably happy too.
T123
barge - Embassy OS -- too lofty. I think if you combine your thoughts on how the OS will both integrate and enable these applets to work together seamlessly, with Doma's viewpoint that Premium Service utilities (over time) will manage the trust domain grid both within and across networks, then I think that you are both vehemently agreeing, but can't quite come to grips on the boundaries of your gold mines.
I do not believe that Wave will manage web-services. Rather, as you (barge have said many times) it will enable web-services. So, what does 'enable' mean in this context. Well, here is where I think you get more into Doma's definition for the value proposition. Since future applications (applets) will become a paid for, metered and compiled collection of applets (over time) the network that distributes (securely), collects, enables, meters, disables, migrates, qualifies, restores, etc will be enabled and supported by hopefully many of Wave's Premium services.
Once these TPMs and services are deployed (trusted nodes on the grid as some call it), you can then begin to view the new IT-infrastructure as a semi-open, not-yet fully programmable network. Although this generation of the grid gives the appearance of trust, is not fully trustworthy yet. Why? Because the chipsets are not the EII chipsets. They are non-programmable chipsets, capable only of managing limited functionality ~ like Key (secrets) Management.
However, as the industry matures towards EII, Wave continues to establish itself as the Utility manager within each domain. Once EII is adopted en mass, then can easily Wave move to become the utility manager across domains as well. Think of it as sort of an open-programmable ERP-like network grid of trusted servers (TANs) and Clients.
I don't think we're here yet, but both barge and doma appear to be right to me.
T123
Doma, Are you referring to a trust domain in the context of say, a server manager of keys within a single company's network? And that once you go outside of what that server domain recognizes, you're in effect SOL?
t123
barge - exactly right. So secure migration of owners, keys and applets become the virtual network grid of the future Premium Services offering.
Now, wouldn't it be nice if you could also use the Wave meter in conjunction with Tivoli to identify all client software, meter usage, notify when not adequately used, and auto-feed your automated planning, budgeting and license renewal systems.
Nice little applet web-service right there No? Save companies a lot of time and money.
Remember, you heard it first here.
t123
Question - How are upgrades/modifications handled?
Another CD? Or, install the CD, and get downloads from there?
anyone? too forward thinking?
Wildman262 - This press release alone should be good for a $.50 - $1 rise in stock price from its present position IMHO. I mean really... If anyone at all in the investor community gets it, the fact that this little company is repeatedly mentioned in the TCG with these behemoths is enough to make you wonder why these geniuses don't already have at least a passive position in Wavx shares.
Boggles the mind. I guess this is likely why they're at $3 without revenues.
Ramsey2 and others - hence the bundled solution I mentioned yesterday.
EXACTLY!
This is what would make things real good.
T123
bowWave - I have Microsoft Office, but that doesn't mean that I use Microsoft Acess.
You don't have to use it, but it's likely.
Doma - You're right! Money hasn't changed much. Wave has still made nothing.
couldn't resist that one.
T123
Doma here's my short answer..
If they're all bricks, and everyone knows it, then why isn't Wave an absolute must have in every case, and not just an option?
Doma - you're absolutely one of the best posters on this board, and I'm not looking to argue ~ only to understand the logic behind why it's such a mystery to assemble and understand Wave's forecast.
zen88 - it was this post that put me in this mood today.
Right! But these weren't the conversations we were having a couple to a few years ago. Back then, we were touting Embassy as the only programmable solution, and that all of the others would require a new PC, or at least an upgrade CD every time a new service was offered. It is only over the last year or so that we've switched our conversations away from Embassy more, and more towards the security services. It's only in the last year that NSM, Intel, HPQ and others have begun touting their own trusted PCs and TPMs. Why do we believe that all of these computers will use Wave's services when they didn't all use Embassy?
Granted, Wave never wanted to be a chip company, and services has always been the direction that Wave has wanted to go in, but viewed Embassy as the only viable way to get there because of its programmability. Now, an alternative approach is introduced. Now, it's White Box TPMs and Chipsets, all requiring the service to be on the box when it's shipped, or come in a downloadable or uprgadeable CD. While many try to figure out what that means to them,Wave believes that they are the only ones with the best kinds of services that others need, and still the only one with the chipset solution that everyone will someday figure out they need.
Is that true? Will the TPMs that everyone's deploying require ongoing upgrades for newer security services to work? And, if Wave's are so much needed (as per Wave), why isn't everyone who buys these PCs requiring them? If IBM and HP already have a Secure document solution, or a secure signature solution, as prior documents have shown, then why would anyone buy or download Wave's CD. What's the catalyst unless Wave pushes it, or spends millions in marketing expenses.
While I think I know these answers, it might be a good idea to cover this. IS this a step solution to where Wave thinks it's ahead of the curve, when in reality, they could just be getting strung out until these companies offer services of similar quality?
Why download Wave's security services? And, if they're necessary, why not offer them right up front to the enterprise customer?
Becasue some of you may be thinking this, without saying it, or discussing it, and because I like to play devil's advocate at times just to maintain my own patience and sanity ~
Wave used to be the only working security chip that we knew about. We didn't know anything about a TPM 2-years ago. Now everyone touts their own TPM and chipset solution (except NSM) without Wave even being mentioned in the hardware configuration. IMO, Wave was delayed (for a number of reasons) in their depolyment long enough to either give the IP away to everyone else, or get caught up to by everyone else due to these delays. An 18-month head start usually lasts only 18-months by my calendar. Just because Wave and the market fell on hard time, didn't seem to bother R&D in this area.
Now Wave is still pushing services, like they always have. Wave is still saying that they never wanted to be a chip company like they always have. But again, we the investors are not seeing TPM rollout as an 'immediate' pot-of-gold. Rather, we are seeing it as 12-24 month pot-of-gold. It will take that long for TPM adoption to begin to occur in mass. To the pragmatist, that would mean that adoption of Wave's services to any great extent could mirror, but would also likely trail TPM adoption.
To me that means revenues are very minor in beginning 2004, ramping to somewhat impressive the later half of 2004, and then ramping to very impressive in 2005 and beyond. But, to me as devil's advocate, that also means that the behemouths have 12-24 months to again catch up, to put out their own similar and new services. That also means that over that period you'll likely hear about HPs services, and IBM's services.
I ask myself all of the time - If Wave has security services now, that would benefit every TPM user, why aren't all of the behemouths including it in their TPM PCs automatically now? Why are some offering it as a downloadable option? Why are others (i.e. HP) not offering it yet at all? Is it because it's not their core business, and they're not in business to push other people's products? Perhaps. Could it be because they too expect to develop similar services in the near future? Perhaps.
Yes - these are tough questions to answer. And, it's easy for me too to say to myself ~ Tampa, you either believe or you don't. But, while I do believe, I'm also growing a little restless trying to convince myself over and over that it's Mr. Softee NDAs that are keeping me from knowing the truth. That when Mr. Softee finally decides to come out of the closet, whenever that is, we'll finally see our expectations realized.
Hence my ramblings. I'm not looking for a conclusion, or an outcome. I'm not looking for convincing, or an argument. I continue (as I said previously) to quietly accumulate shares in anticipation of my expectations. just like many of you. But these thoughts cross my mind too once in a while. So, I just thought I'd share them.
T123
24601 - I know you weren't. I guess the main point that I was trying to make was that uptake will be a result of how well the user is aware of the product suite, and educated on how well the product may/may not help them. Downloads can't occur unless the downloader/user is educated about Wave's services. I do not see HP making any commitment to educate users on the value of Wave's services. I do not see IBM doing it either.
That is why I keep praying for Mr Softee to make the Wave services and feature/functionality a key part of their new OS. If they do, then I liken it to them forcing you to download upgrades of newer services in order to get the thing that you want to work better, and more securely. If they, or someone like them doesn't force the issue, then I fear that uptake is an education crapshoot, where only the most knoledgable of users will want it. The rest won't even know what they're missing.
That's why I strongly believe that the Enterpise market for Trusted PCs is the right first mover. While I'll buy Steven's statement that if a PC procurement manager was offered a trusted PC for $5 more, why wouldn't they buy it, I'll also say that if there's no services to run on them, or if Wave isn't the only option in town (as we see they aren't in some service areas) that same procurement manager will want to know why they paid the extra $5. So someone will need to be responsible for educating the end-user
Once users see the value of these services in work, I suppose the feeling is that they'll also want these features in the home computer. At least that's the way I see rollout happening. What about the rest of you? How long will this take without a concerted third-party effort, without a concerted behemout marketing and education campaign, without a Microsoft building the service option right into their OS, instructing a pop-up screen to read, 'In order to best use this feature, you will need to turn on your Document Manager service found by ......'
But I digress
rachel - I would be inclined to agree with you, but aren't they the bigger IFs at this point in the ballgame?
Awareness comes before uptake, and education comes before use.
Those are still big IFs IMO. Whether we believe they'll be overcome or not, doesn't make it a non-issue.
t123
In the 1) in-the-box solution where the software is included automatically, it is only turned on by choice (as we've al been told), but by having it as an already existing feature set, the buyer is entitled to either some point-and-click education component, user manual, or perhaps even pop-up options that suggest when to use one of these features.
In the download scenario, the user has to know it exists. To simply explain that key awareness and education aspect away, such that an equal amount of uptake will occur this way over the already-in the box solution is rediculous. First, because those who choose to download will likely want to use the features they are downloading. Therefore, up-take on the download of Wave services is likely to be higher (on a percentage basis) than an already in the box solution that one may have to learn about on their own, and then choose to use. Perhaps not! But it is feasible to assume that the uptakes on a percentage and number of ultimate users basis may differ.
As for the bundled option, that was one that I threw in where the services may be offered (in the future) as part of a marketing and sales campaign for large enterprise purchases of TPM enabled PCs. Since it is possible to purchase a TPM PC without Wave services already inside, some companies may want the Wave Services with their new TPM PCs without having to pay for it separately. If I were in control of PC purchases at say American Express for example, and I knew all about TPM PCs, and the fact that useful services weren't already in the PCs that I was purchasing, I may want to work a deal. You never know. Anyway, the uptake here might be the same as the download poulation, the same as the in-the-box population, or entirely different altogether.
The better question back to you is, 'What makes you believe that uptake will not be different under the various options. Even if you assume only two viable options exist today.
Remember, not everyone knows as much about Trusted Computing as many of you do.
T123
rachelelise - and the uptake will be different depending on the way uptake (as you define it) is being offered:
1) download
2) in the box
3) bundled solution
regards,
t123
TPMs and Intel's SIPP (Stable Image Platform Program appear to go hand-in-hand.
In looking at the deck that fivewood introduced us to a couple of days ago, it appears that all corporate desktops offering TPMs are also offering Intel's Advanced SIPP Chipset solution. See configurations on pages 12 - 14 of deck below.
http://www.intel.com/platforms/desktop/vision/DPVG_part1_04.pdf
Some SIPP background information
http://www.intel.com/ebusiness/stableplatform/index.htm
Can anyone tell me why they believe that one goes hand-in-hand with, or compliments the other. I think there's some significance in the fact that these two features are listed together on only the PCs with the TPM. I have some theories of my own, but want to ask the techies of the board (first) to explain in laymen's terms what the SIPP offers an enterprise PC manager.
Can someone offer up an opinion on this?
T123
wavxjr - I know you don't really mean what you just said about WAVX not needing any news, but I would agree that they appear to be on solid ground.
T123
Something worth noting --- Something that also appears on all of the TPM featured PCs from the Intel Vision Document (under Next Generation Intel Chipset) is SIPP (Stable Image Platform Program). Although not exactly related, they appear to be at least indirectly related, in that it is only this chipset program that the TPM is currently offered.
So here's a theory for all of you techies out there. This program is supposed to maintian (among other things) a standard graphics and software stack for 1 year, making changeover testing easier, and TCO less expensive.
What if Wave's metering capabilities were added to each PC as an applet for metering Desktop software loaded on each TPM compliant PC. If Wave got together with Tivoli (for example) and created a PING-like metering capablilty of PCs running in the Enterprise, such that an exacting inventory (at any point in time) of software running (and not used for over 6-months) on each PC could be taken, this would save large companies millions in OA&M fees, seat license renewals, compatability testing etc..
Does any of this make sense?
T123
CPA - What's wrong? Even I don't TRY to anger everyone with my posts. Your posts appear contain a great deal of hostility, in my opinion. Am I giving counseling here - certainly not. I have my own issues, and likely years of counseling myself to contemplate. But, it might be easier just to say what you mean, and get it over with.
If you don't trust Wave's management, then we've pretty much got that one by now.
I'd like to give you some rope here, but I don't know what point you're trying to make.
T123
EUROPEANS SWITCH TO WEB FOR MORTGAGES
Europeans will use the Internet to originate half a million mortgage loans in 2003 - five per cent of total new home loans - and this figure will triple by 2008, according to forecasts from Forrester Research.
Full story: http://www.finextra.com/fullstory.asp?id=10145
go-kitesurf - I believe you are extracting words that just weren't in my post. I never said guarantee for anything. I believe that I said (you can check) that a good 'measure' for future performance is past performance. I did not say anything was guaranteed.
My expectations are similar to yours. I too expect shipments (although not a large amount) in this quarter, although I can't prove that they are already occurring. Can you?
My main point is that what Steven says regarding shipments only speaks to the credibility of what he's being told, not what he himself controls, or is willing to provide contracted guidance for. When guidance numbers begin to emerge (probably beginning in 2-4 quarters) from Wave, that's when you'll know we've made it. Until then, we just keep our fingers crossed, buy more shares on the dips, and wait.
Kinda like we have been.
Ramsey2 - I would be surprised also.
go-kitesurf - Well said, and given that line of thinking, I would argue that a good measure of future performance is one's past performance.
To that end, since Wave is known to not be in control of its own destiny here, and since it is also known that when these dependencies exist, Wave (or should I say, their champion) rarely, if ever, hits a delivery date. Past performance would then indicate that delays are certainly possible, if not likely.
However, this time I think that Steven was well aware that his credibility is squarely on the line. The HP/Compaq order that never materialized should have educated him on the dangers of speaking without a signed contract in hand. I hope that he didn't do that again this time.
We were told at the shareholders meeting that we could bank on the fact that there would be 4th quarter product shipments, and that's exactly what I'm doing. If there aren't, then I'd be inclined to not believe a word Steven tells me from that point forward.
Not because I think he's a liar or anything, but more, because I'd have to be insane at that point to believe that he has any control over execution. It's already obvious to me that his schedules are unreliable, and controlled by the behemouths.
The definition of insanity is one who sees the same thing happen again and again, yet expects a different outcome.
Unless Wave (Steven) can say there's a signed contract with definitive numbers, then you can't rely on his guidance. At the SHM, Steven did say that Intel had no obligations. They could ship as many, or as few as they wanted. They could use replacement product at any time, and they (Intel) controlled how many (if any) they wanted to roll-out.
Doesn't sound like a great deal of certainty in that.
Logan - based on your post it looks like between that and Trusted Computing you're damned if you do and damned if you don't