The reason(s) we're not moving up...
Over the past couple of months, Wave has announced an in the box relationship with Intel, NSM, Infineon, and a downloadable support suite for IBM and HP. This announcement covers TPM capable boxes only, and from what many out there know today, it's a software only utility solution for a box that, to everyone else's knowledge, doesn't have any guidance around, not exactly sure what the new board/box does (other than protect your computer like IBM's product and they don't use Wave's stuff), and there's even other similar (on the surface) solutions being offered. We're talking average Joe investor here, not us who follow the company's progress minute-by-minute.
Now, if you couple that with what people in the investor world may have known, or thought they knew about Wave:
1. I thought they were a security chip company.
2. I thought they were a metering chip.
3. For someone who's pushed hardware for so long, why is their specific product offering software only?
4. Aren't they always spending money and making none?
5. If you listen to all of Wave's CCs,
a. things are always progressing nicely,
b. the market's always just now catching up to them,
c. they never give guidance (because they can't),
d. they always promise that we'll hear some pretty cool
announcements over the next couple of months that either
rarely materialize (Intel = exception, not rule) or their
definition of cool doesn't equal ours.
.... there's no wonder why the investment community is, at minimum confused, and at best ~ cautious!
Even some of us aren't 100% sure what Wave is going to be when it finally grows up:
1. Is EII dead, or will it only be used for the most demanding security projects?
2. Will EII be the chipset that the market will evolve into, or does Wave have to get more money, go back to the drawing board, or give away its IP to someone else who can fund it just to keep its overall vision alive? (This is something Wave was always willing to part with anyway)
3) If the existing TPMs are not open and programmable, Like EII, how are they able to do anything other than what they were initially programmed to do? ~~~ Manage keys securely.
Look! Bottom Line is there are some facts about Wave that we all need to come to grips with:
1) While they may to some extent control their own destiny, they certainly don't control adoption and rollout schedules.
2) They can't give any guidance, because of the fact just stated above.
3) All they can announce is what they've already announced:
a) They've got a utility solution that offers some value to
every TPM.
b) Almost every major OEM agrees to some extent, but to what
extent, is not going to be revealed fully until either
Microsoft's product roadmap is layed out, or enough
enterprises adopt the technology early to warrant more
press, or Premium Service offerings.
c) We're in the box, which throughout OEM history has meant
first mover market acceptance.
SO WE WAIT! AND WE WAIT!, and wait ...
What are our valid fears or concerns?
1) The delays are just giving the big boys a chance to come up with their own solutions, even if they don't work as well as Wave's, ~ and more importantly ~ the fear is this will continue to happen
2) Wave will run out of money, or sell the company out of need. (This one isn't likely IMO, but I'm being objective remember)
3) Activist groups will tie this up indefinitely, or at least make this another 2 - 5 year slog.
4) That our family members are never going to get an appreciable amount of their investment back for at least 5 more years.
And finally, what are we confident in:
1) That this sucker is the next killer app, and will be adopted ubiquitously.
2) It's only a matter of when, not if
3) Patience = Prosperity
See - Once you put it all in the right perspective, it's the last part that matters most ------ RIGHT?
We all may think some of these things, but the one thing we know, is the last one, two and three
Have a great day everyone!
T123
