Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Hi jimbob, you may want to checkout that Incredimail client, I seem to remember reading somewhere that it could be ad-ware.
Hi RoboAimer, you are right there is not much out there. I like the search engine at http://www.alltheweb.com/ . I found one web site http://mktcycles.com/ that seems to be what you want, the web site says their system is based on "The Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing by J.M. Hurst". This message thread, may, or may not help. http://csf.colorado.edu/longwave/mar99/0592.html
Hi Jibes, on first glance your new aim spreadsheet looks good, I had to go back and reread the web page though.
one sugestion, the web page reads Basically then: Each week or month or set period of time you will find the percentage the stock price either went up or down from the previous period stock price. I think it should read Basically then: Each week or month or set period of time you will find the percentage the stock price either went up or down from the previous (stock price of the last buy or sell). I know it sounds like I am nit picking, but I think it will work better. Now how do we get the spreadsheet to understand that? What I am thinking of is a stock that drifts down so slowly that it nevers hits the 4% limint, or finaly hits it, but the change from the last buy/sell could be more than 4%. what do you think?
A good book on this is Fed Watching by Brian Kettell. I have not read it yet.
Hi Rien, you are getting into the federal reserve banking system. Which is far beyond me. Lets say that I deposit $1000 in the bank. If I understand correctly, at the present time they have to keep 50% of that in the federal reserve bank. That leaves them with $500 to loan out, but they probably only loan out 90%, and keep 10% as cash for daily cash flow.
Interesting, lets say that a car lasts on average ten years. What is GM's percentage of the new car market? This XM radio should be a growth stock for around ten years, and then should become a cycle stock. It will probably have three to five stock splits in that ten years.
Hi Jibes looking forward to the spreadsheet. What type of brain food have you been eating? Keep the ideas coming.
To find the survey click on other and then Surveys
So far the maybe's have it. I think it is a good ideal to have a few links to web sites, and have links to messages that have a long list of links on a subject. Also links to important messages.
Well it slows down the typing, and heavy labor. I was a truck driver when I got Psoriasis, which caused me to have Arthritis in toes, fingers, knees, elbow, and shoulder. Before I drove a truck, I did electronics in the navy. I have been researching the stock market from 1998 on the internet. If I ever get out of debt, I will start investing on a monthly time frame. Probably a mutual fund, but maybe drip stocks that have a dividend.
Hi Broderick, no I am disabled. How are you doing?
Hi Michael, My understanding is they test to see if your computer respondes to netbios. see here. http://www.mvps.org/inetexplorer/ You want to go down to NETBIOS SPAM. Get that firewall set up as fast as you can.
Edit: click on bugs,glitches and stuffups and then go down to NETBIOS.
I would go ahead and backup your data, and give hp support a call, it can't hurt.
Hi F or F, I think the registry file on your computer is in poor shape, that is the file that normally gets corrupted. When you say that normal, looks like the safe mode. I think you mean you have the large screen, with the ugly colors, but it does not say (safe mode) in all four corners. I think windows loss track of what graphic card you have. You probably need to find a professional at this point. Tell him/her what type of files you want to keep. They should be able to get that data. Then they should reformat the hard drive, that removes every thing on it. Then put the windows back on the computer, and your programs, and all drivers for your hardware. A lot of the store bought computers have a disk that will do that for you. But remember you will lose all your data files, so you need to get them first.
Hi Fact or Fiction, I think you have two possible problems. One is office 97 related. Office likes to put a program shortcut called fast in your start up folder. If you move it to another folder then the fast program will not start up when you turn your computer on. The fast program keeps track of all your office data files, it is a real resource hog. You don't need it running to use the other office programs.
New thought, you may have a lot of adware programs running also. Ad-aware is a free program, that will let you know if you have any adware programs. http://www.lavasoftusa.com/
The other problem is you may need to reformat and reinstall all your programs, as you said you thought some of the programs were corrupt. Note this is a techy operation. Before doing it you need to copy all the doc files and picture files, and any other files you want to keep to another hard disk or burn them onto a cd, if you have a cd writer. Also you need your windows 98 cd and the office 97 cd, and all the hardware drivers, program cd's.
PS: being a girl should not be a problem. If you have any problems. Just ask PMSWitch, she is very good at explaining things.
Hi Mr. Ed, I cant say why you can't get a link. You may want to see if you have a ad-ware program running, that is suppressing the link. Here is the web site. www.marketpulsenavigator.com/adzrprofile.htm You should be able to copy and paste it in your address window.
About the mother board, ask about the integrated video card, does it have its own memory, or does it share the 256 Meg's of memory with the CPU. If the answer is yes recommend buying at least another 128 meg's of DDR memory.
Hi Shaolin, PMSWitch had some real good recommendations. Here are some more.
1. You should think strongly about having some more RAM installed, I recommend 128 meg's.
2. You should think about adding another hard drive, as you have less than 500 meg of blank hard drive left, or you could reformat your hard drive and putting back on only the programs you use. Do not reformat, unless you know you have all the system and hardware drivers and programs.
You should be able to buy both 1 and 2 for less than $100 dollars.
3. Defrag your hard drive
4. Go here, http://www.outertech.com/product.php?product=3&PHPSESSID=79ff76fd2c251be936a9638787385144 and download and install Cacheman. Cacheman will help make windows not use all your ram memory. Even thou Cacheman cost $10 dollars now, you can still run it for as long as you want.
5. Go here, http://www.irfanview.com/ and download and install Irfanview. Irfanview is a free program for viewing and modifying pictures. It uses very little memory compared to most of the picture programs out there.
Ergo, I have been using cookieCop 2 for a while, but it does not stop the flash ads. I saw a ad blocker at walmart today that says it can block them, but I like freeware if I can find it. I just did a search with (block flash ads), and I got this http://www1.simtel.net/pub/pd/61560.html . I have not tried it yet but the price is right.
Here is some more info on the flash ads. http://www.macromedia.com/desdev/jd_forum/
Hi Karw, yes I agree with you, that american media are hyping up their citizens. Today on PBS Frontline they showed this! http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/gulf/
I think it will be shown again on Saturday and Sunday, in the Dallas, Fort Worth area.
After seeing it, I strongly think that we will be going to war soon.
I would love to hear that Saddam had been terminated, and that a new government was being installed, which was complying with the UN. But I don't see that happening.
Hi Matt, in windows bring up the sound recorder, load you wave, then try under file, the save as funtion. When the window opens click on the change button, they had ccitt u-law listed.
Note 1. I have windows ME, and have not tryed this.
Hi Susie here is the web site that I have used, there are a few more out there. http://www.pacs-portal.co.uk/startup_index.htm You will probably want to use one of the startup mangers on the startup manager link. You may want to check out the Cacheman program, it can help windows 98 to run better. http://www.outertech.com/product.php?product=3&PHPSESSID=79ff76fd2c251be936a9638787385144
There are some free programs that go behind your back and install what is called adware, which can load down your resources, you will want to get ether spybot http://security.kolla.de/index.php?lang=en&page=download or ad-aware, http://www.lavasoftusa.com/ to look for them.
Hi Northwesterner, it is a shame that the screen works so poorly. Maybe they need to make the screen have user selectable criteria, it may work better that way. My thought was that one could use the screen to find stocks that were NAIC compatible, and then use the SSG for finer screening of the stocks. To be honest I have never owned any stocks, and will most likely start out with mutual funds when/if I do. But I like the NAIC method of stock selection the best so far. But I think they need a good stock screener to sort through the 7000+ stocks out there. I like the MSN stock screen the best for ease of use, but it does not have all the criteria needed to do a proper NAIC screen. They do not have any ten year screens, the best you can use are five years. While they do have the average five year PE, they do not have the Average five year high PE, or the Average five year low PE. Which is needed for later calculations.
If you do have any stock that pass the NAIC method it may be interesting to run them past the other investing styles on quicken. Also I was pointed to this web page. http://quotes.nasdaq.com/asp/MasterDataEntry.asp?page=guruanalysis where you can compare the stock to nine other styles of stock selection.
I wish you a good day and happy stock hunting.
I see there have not been to much action here. How are the drips doing? You may be interested in this site for stock ideas. http://www.quicken.com/investments/strategies/ you can click on the strong interest stocks link, for a screen of stocks that meet that investment style. On the screen page you can sort by the criteria you think is most important.
I think the answer is sometimes it is legal to download a song. Like I could put a recording of me singing the blues on the net, and let you download it and that would be legal. Off course, I don't think you want to hear me sing the blues, but that is another story.
Alert! Qarel, this is not a problem with the Lichello data set. It is a problem with AIM. This is more a sampling problem, what you did was sample the Lichello cycle very often, and buy or sell just as soon as possible. This interacted with the Portfolio feedback loop, to cause the Set Point to no longer behave properly, it starts to ramp up until AIM no longer works properly!
In my view your work duplicates what people have been doing with GTC orders, which means that a lot of people could be in trouble, Their AIM program may not be working the way it should be!
I am recommending that everyone start tracking the set point, when the AIM program is working properly the set point should be following the stock price roughly, if you see that it is starting to ramp up, you need to reset your AIM program.
I have done some initial testing on this, if the feedback loop is lowered to 10% the set point is stable, when sampling is done every one degree. If the sampling rate is done once every 13 degrees or greater the feed back loop is stable at 50%.
I am sure you will start getting a lot of requests for your spreadsheet. While I did find a few things odd with it, minimum buy based on the portfolio control. That is not causing what you are seeing. I duplicated the problem with my old spreadsheet. I have to go to the store now, but will be back online later.
Hi Qarel, Think you for the spreadsheets. I think I found why the cycle stops. It has to do with the Set Point. You need to add a new column, Set Point = PC/SH. Then chart it. What you see is the set point bouncing around at first and then settling down at around $8.3. This has the effect of starving AIM, smaller sells, smaller cash reserves, smaller buys, until you run out of money. In my old AIM spreadsheet, with the old data the set point keeps moving between $9 and $5, with out settling down. I will try to do more testing tomorrow with more degrees of separation between the data points.
Hi all, Scott McCormick has a web site here. http://www.fundpilot.com/home.htm
In his last free news letter he gave a list of dividend stocks. http://www.fundpilot.com/Dividends1.htm you may be interested in the zip file, I understand it is a spreadsheet that can do web query's.
After some consideration, I decided to post about VCA. Please note VCA does not have anything to do with Value Averaging. VCA is a form of dollar cost averaging. You can read about it here. http://www.mcmoney.com/
Now that you have read about it, you can see it is a simple idea.
At one time stockcharts.com had a commentary by Scott McCormick called Scott McCormick's Accelerated Growth Method. At the time he did not revile the method he used, and the web page would only work with mutual funds. While that web page has been removed, you can read it here. http://www.stockcharts.com/commentary/scottmc/acc_growth.html" target="_new">http://web.archive.org/web/20010605214058/http://www.stockcharts.com/commentary/scottmc/acc_growth.h...
Note the form does not work.
The reason I bring it up is it appears Scott McCormick was using VCA with a multiplier to increase the effects of VCA.
Hi Don, I was hoping to find something that I could use with, http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/finder/customstocks.asp
Alas, their screener does not deal with the raw data, but with ratio's. You can multiply, divide, add or subtract, ratio's from each other.
Hi Lou, was wondering what you thought of http://stockcharts.com/education/What/TradingStrategies/lastStochastic.html
Here is a one year chart of $XAU. http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$XAU,uu[l,a]daclyyay[dd][pc50!c200][vc60][iLh39,3!Lah12,...
Hi Qarel, I would be interested in your spreadsheets, if you could email them to me, I would appreciate it. I am interested in how you used the cosine.
I think this is the first Long term, fine detail look at the Lichello cycle, and it is bringing attention to what I conceder to be a important point.
Bernie has long been a believer in buying once a month. Tom on the other hand has been using GTC orders set to the next buy and sell point. It may be that using a GTC set to the next buy point is not a good idea, it may be much better to set it to at least 10% below the last buy or some other percent.
In the original Lichello cycle, you have a drop from,
10 to 8,a -20 percent
8 to 5, a -37.5 percent
5 to 4, a -20 percent
And you have raise's from,
4 to 5, a 25 percent
5 to 8, a 60 percent
8 to 10 a 25 percent .
As you can see you have lots of room between the buy's and sell's. If I am reading your statement right, the closer the consecutive buy's or sell's are to each other the worse AIM performs.
Hi Bernie, Yes I agree the article was a "chicken little the sky is falling" type of article. We will not start to get any good articles until the bill gets ready to come out. I think it does start you to thinking, and planning what you will do.
One thing of interest, what would happen if congress gave the dividend tax break to the corporations, instead of the investors?
Could be people taking profits.
Hi SoxFan, I have windows ME with the IE6 browser. The cache directory is C:\Windows\Temporary Internet Files , the location could be different on your computer. You use the Windows Explorer to view it. When you get there it will take a bit of time to display it, lots of files in that directory. You will see columns, Name, Internet address, Type(file type), and so forth. You can sort by the column, by clicking on it. If you click on Type, everything is put in order by file type, you can then go down to the sound files, find the one you want and copy it to another directory.
Yes the cache is a history of where you have been, your web browser stores the html(web page), .gif and .jpg (picture files), some but not all types of sound files. The reason your web browser saves these files is to speed up web browsing.
You should be able to find them in your browsers cache directory.
Hi Cjam, glad you came back. I am still working on understanding your system. If I am understanding correctly. You take your fund and split it into 12 equal parts and invest one part each month with the idea of holding it for one year, unless that month has a loss of 5% based on the price that month was bought at. I am basing this on your rolling 12 month reference. http://www.cjam.pwp.blueyonder.co.uk/html/current.html
Food for thought, have you considered ratcheting up the stop loss's each month to 5% less than the current price? this would have the effect of selling all positions upon a loss. Some of the positions would be sold at a profit, then next month you start all over again. Or you could keep the months separate. One could also base the stop loss on how much profit a month has. You could set it up for 5% loss to start and ratchet it up to 5% of the current price or 80% of the current profit , which ever is lower. Lets follow one month. You buy the stock at $100. The stop loss is set at $95, the next month the stock is at $105, new stop loss would be $99.75(5% loss). If you use 80% of profit you would set the stop loss at $104, $99.75 is lower. Lets say after several months the price is $150, the new stop loss would be $142.5 or $140, in this case $140(80% of the current profit).
Hi Qarel, I think I was the one to talk of the Constant Dollar Plan, I found the info in ,Practical Formulas for Successful Investing by Lucile Tomlinson. She was mostly interested in the fact that when the price returned to the starting price the ratio of stocks to bonds would be different than what you started out with. My understanding is that the ratio would shift more and more towards the bond side of the ratio, she recommended increasing the Constant Dollar Amount to correct this. She thought it would be best to do the increase when the stock was at a low point, rather than at a high point. As far as I know Mr. Lichello was the only person to come up with a method of doing the increase.
You said The problem, if you want to call it that, is that PC is raised after a buy. This brings the next buy closer, which is illogical. For the placement of the buys and sells it would be much more logical to raise PC after a sell. I tried this with my nasdaq daily aim sheet and got a real improvement.
I think about a year or so, on the SI board someone voiced this idea. At the time I modified my AIM spreadsheet so it would increase PC after a sell. I then tested it with the 10,8,5,4,5,8, and repeat data stream. Starting with $10,000, at the end of eight years I showed a total of $121,546. At that time I sent Tom a email, asking him to let the guy know that while his modification did end with a profit, it did not come close to AIM BTB, and was probably a bad idea. Now it could be that I have a error in my spreadsheet, or this could just be due to the data stream. I did not test with other data streams. Have you tested with other data streams? I think at the time, I concluded that by not raising the PC after the buy, the sells happened to soon, reducing the profits, also the buys at the low points were not as large as AIM BTB.
Hi Bernie, sorry to take so long to get back to you. The cold snap we have had here in Texas has keep me out of my computer room. As you noted in your reply there are two parts of the article that are of interest.
Says Stuart Seeley, head REIT analyst at UBS Warburg and a master of understatement: Bush's proposal "may be a negative for the REITs." David Shulman, who runs real estate research at Lehman Brothers, puts it more plainly: Even a watered-down version of Bush's plan "looks likely to the detriment of REITs. It is a big deal." Shulman believes many REITs could ultimately choose to lower their dividends and convert to ordinary taxable corporations.
The thinking is simple. REITs aren't getting an effective 50% hike in dividend yields. But other stocks would. So any investor who'd been holding REITs primarily for the dividend income would bail out.
The bottom paragraph, would be good for anyone AIMing the stock.
The top paragraph, is even more interesting, if the REITS decide to convert back to ordinary taxable corporations and lower their dividends. In the short term, this could be bad for people depending on the dividends, but could be good in the long term, as the REITS could keep more of the net income for re-investing.
As you said, Naturally there will be analysis at that time to check out the company's financial situation.
Hi Nocona, I think that was before I was a twinkle in my father's eye. I was on the USS Thomas Alva Edison SSBN610 gold crew, back in 1977 to 1980.
Ok, lol I was just wondering.