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Either go away, or listen to my play list, but please realize you have no power over our minds. We have already won...you should pay more attention to the silent film we have all been watching.
Ripple
Newspeedway boogie
Follow the sun
Ripple
Magnificent
Inaudible melodies
Upside down
Sacrificial bonfire
The bonfire is being built and Linda Powers will light it. I really don’t care when , and hope that you and yours give me and mine one more opportunity to make up for our lack of courage.
I understand that Mr F, we are aligned...it is unfathomable. But one must project 2 years reasonably accurately to get the proper valuation upon merger
I hope this knowledge makes the knights and castles run but realize it is too late for the chamber pot, their pants are already soiled
I disagree, All of the models are reasonably accurate if one corrects the assumptions that may be off. Aperture has provided us a very sound, logical model to use.
For example, anyone who sells DCVaX for $150k per cycle is being quite conservative for the US. While roll out is likely to proceed as outlined by country, penetration will come faster because it is the SOC, but this will require Marketing, Manufacturing and collaboration with Dr. Liau. You also want patient services so that you can provide Bridge drug immediately while you fight the evil empire.
This is a rocket ship company too, he just went macro and she went micro.
Thank you Patent Master!
See post 378392 and dampen expectations.
Silent films are full of sound, Inaudibly free....
We rebound off of we...
But in the long run we have found, silent films are full of sound...
So slow down everyone, your moving too fast
Frames can’t catch you when you’re moving like that
Inaudible melodies paint pictures that we cannot see
Unobtrusive tones help to notice nothing but the zone
KM visual relevancy, frame lines tell me what to see
A journal does not prevent one from releasing TLD, but ASCO Embago Policy does. So perhaps, tonight we learn our fate OR perhaps we do not as we will have to wait until June 3rd. Or do we....
Does 38,7% approximate 36.6% which both slightly over estimate the actual because placebo is not placebo only, it is placebo plus rGBM crossover, and (DCVAX )100 is not DCVAX alone it is (DCVAX plus crossover before recurrent DCVAX). Which leads me to guesstimate that 35% vs 15% is highly statistically significant. AND at five years this gap remains fairly consistent so that 17-19% grows when the final 100 DCVAXers walk through giving about 21-22% which according to Utah Liau gives you about 25+% vs 5ish% which too is highly statistically significant.
This also tells you that early is significantly different than late when one KM curve over 12years is compared to another that may end around 7 years.
So it does not matter in the long run whether it is a journal or ASCO, but this marketer will tell you that ASCO should and requires that they come first.
What matters is that Linda Powers has already won, that she knows she has won, and that we all know what we are worth!! Which is not $10 or even $26, it is substantially higher.
SYNERGY, GESTALT, SCHADENFREUDE
SYNERGY when one plus one equals three or four or maybe even 1000. That is one definition.
Which by the way is another definition for GESTALT...the whole is bigger than the sum of the parts.
Everyone is laying all their cards on the table, even Linda Liau. The game is afoot but it does not end with ASCO or NEJM or FDA approval. The game ends with a cure for more than just cancer.
It is important that you know what I believe in which does involve the kingdom. It is important that you see that I am goofy and strange. It is important that you see that I can be vindictive. It is important that you listen to me when I say they have already declared us the standard of care and it is actually worth a whole lot more than $3B in revenue, more at first and way more later. Did you see the video of that Tcell destroying cancer? Only love.
What do the others bring to that table you ask?
Amy Heimberger
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/?term=Heimberger+a
Ian Parney
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/?term=Parney+i
My guess is tomorrow night is a lot of pontificating without much of the substance that we are looking for. UCSF and Mt. Sinai may be a different story as they are clinicians and at least NYC is free of charge and open to peers come one come all.
“DCVAX is SAFE and FEASIBLE to add to the SOC” JTM 2017
I know this sounds odd coming from me, I know that I have been loudly beating a drum or a whole percussion set. BUT PLEASE SLOW DOWN EVERYONE, ASM is not the goal and will likely disappoint, ASCO is not the goal and we may disagree but I think it does not disappoint, even FDA Approval which in my not so humble opinion is in the bag IS NOT THE GOAL. This drug has already been proclaimed the SOC by her and her peers across the Western globe. It will not take more than 2 years if the manufacturing is in place. CRL can accelerate everything else. If BP wants us, they should have to pay for us. And Kinghts and Castles do not have enough firepower to stop this train from coming into the station but it is not the same old station it is a new station. Locomotives would crush the middle ages.
Gary, if by buy out you mean merger, then if CRL is worth 16 Billion then I can settle on 24 Billion.
We all need to stay mostly invested though because that is an easy hostile take over candidate, although the double monopoly creates a strange situation for that kind of conglomerate. Quick growth could protect us within 2 years. By 5 years we could consider buying them, but there are better smaller fish in the sea.
I know people think this is wacky, but if rockets and batteries and cars are worth what they are worth factoring in the idea that creates such madness, what is cancer cure plus animal models plus in-vitro/in-vivo models plus manufacturing become worth and do we need to settle for a measly $34B cash/stock buy out?
Or can we turn this whole thing upside down? And then can we do it again? Can knights and castles stop us? Can we destroy them? Can Super Mario save Princess Peach?
You could also gut check or validate this result by taking 28.8% lets say subtracting 15 then dividing by 2 and adding this number back to 28.8% which gives you 36.5% which is pretty close considering all the assumptions.
The equation assumes DCVAX is DCVAX so long as you get it before progression. Method B would likely boost things a bit and seven were alive but short of 36 months in 2018 which adds slightly. All estimates of course because recurrent crossed over some times, more like half the time. But Linda told us this last piece already in a couple different ways.
It also assumes that the Aug 2015 halt was due to a safety event (i.e., death) which was investigated as it always is by the DSM who knew that the study was randomized 2:1 which amplified their finding very quickly relative to how long one must wait to ensure that early will statistically beat late. Because it is the DSM, then no efficacy analysis need be performed during interim or refresh or whatever you want to call a blind look at the data.
It then assumes that Linda’s Utah presentation is roughly the same presentation that she made to FDA.
It also explains why IDH mutations needed to be evaluated because once you prove placebo is in fact barbaric then you cannot go backwards. However, with the right planning, you can build what you need to do all the new validation of a new database with an existing database. One who has worked with another can assume that this plan would be part of the negotiations.
And Linda has a lot of set up to do like the statistical model, like PFS vs adjudicated PFS, but only 15 minutes to do it in with questions at Late Breaker at ASCO.
So Utah and Mt. Sinai, can you help a lady out please? Why certainly friend
Now what are we worth but it ain’t $10 and together can we turn this whole thing upside down? I don’t want this feeling to go away. Sometimes SCHADENFREUDE is okay and sometimes GESTALT includes the idea that the kingdom is within you and you should follow the sun because she is magnificent. And sometimes geeks who love Super Mario just want a place to call home, and some people love Biotech but are sick of the hours demanded.
PQR, As if we longs needed luck, we just needed to make it past the endzone line by the nose of a pigskin and ASCO is 2 weeks from releasing LBAs. Click back 2posts
Sorry to link to myself, but I want everyone to click back to the beginning, read that post and apply all statements within. Including the fact that I am not giving anyone anywhere investment advice. You must invest at your own risk.
Now how much is DCVAX worth, there are many ways to model this. One is to look at QUALItTY of life-years gained. In order to do this one needs to looks at costs to treat as well as costs avoided and income earned. Then one must count years and factor in quality. It is quite abstract, the result.
Now, you could look at reasonable comparators, which I agree with but also need to factor in quality which in this case is efficacy and safety, as well as size of market. GBM is a rare disease. You should in all fairness, factor in free and discounted drug in this equation at the end. Bridge program inclusive.
You can do the QALY minus the Qualy part and do a straight up PE model and debate salary earned and where to obtain costs avoided. The easiest answer to that is most unfair to industry and that is Kaiser Permanente. Or you could use them and basically double it. I don’t have the data to do this anyway, I could throw out assumptions and boy can I brainstorm.
So lets talk efficacy first. At 3years LL tells us that about 15% Placebos will survive (eyeball completely). She also tells us that in 2017 when 2/3 rds of the original set received treatment and the other 1/3 received placebo, mostly (a few caveats) and 24.2% survive . But in 2018, about 18 months later, when an enriched cohort (both ways possibly) adds into this mix we see a 28.6% survival, up 4.4% placebos now having been treated with DCVAX for 1.5 years. Then the remaining few pass 3 yrs boosting this a couple decimal points. Median OS stayed the same but separation began at 2 years.
(1DCVAX + 2dcvax)100 + 231( 2/3D + 1/3P)/331 = 28.6
(2/3D +1/3P) = 24.2
So how well does DCVAX work? well a good guess would be 38.72%, assuming the above is true and DCVAX performs the same throughout and a simple equation can approximate KM approximation which it can, or do EX and I need to repeat an old argument. Put that in your eyes, then in your brain, and remember that I do have bias which may cloud my vision. You also need to assume that those who switch over before progression behave the same as the last 32.
Now, back to the question at hand. What do you price DCVax at? One thing to contempltate is that I will use US dollars and we can debate if we simply use exchange rates or if it is more ethical to apply discounts.
DRUG - ANNUAL COST (WAC per Dr. google) - 1st INDICATION - Rare? - EFFICACY/SAFETY - Multiple indications?
Keytruda - $100k - Melanoma - No - Low to Moderate - Yes
Opdivo - $150k - NSCLC - No? - Low to Moderate - Yes
Kymriah - $475k x1 - DBLC - Yes - Hmmm, Low - Yes-ish
Yescarta - $373k x1 - NHL - Maybe - Low - Yes-ish
Just for giggles
Exondis51 - ridiculous thereafter but $750k per year is the WAC
DCVAX - ???? Per course - GBM and rGBM - Yes - High - Yes
These are just my opinion. I have bias. I hide behind an alias. You should not trust people who do so. You should trust your heart and make your own decisions for yourself, especially investment decisions. I may be making things up or I may be delusional
If you do not think me delusional then perhaps join me from 28:40 to 35:30
Common retail shareholders pick stocks on a whim or listen to ‘professionals’ that are really just diversifying their recommendations and pumping stocks for others.
We may have others here, but most of the longs here are really well informed shareholders that have not only done tons of their own due diligence but have also shared this with each other along the way, parts or whole, but shared none the less. We are made up of all sorts of backgrounds, those that practice medicine, those that practice law, some have run and sold companies, some work in the industry, some write patents, some know British real-estate markets, some are just really good investigators, most are curious people, most doubt what they read, all are able to see patterns, some are aware that those patterns have meaning and when reinforced by other patterns grow in meaning. Some don’t know where the facts could possibly have come from, some have guesses, but they were linked to reputable sites so they were perceived as facts anyway. Some here speculate, some don’t. Some cheerlead, some don’t.
Most longs regardless of our background are capable of schadenfreude, some here have earned that feeling.
Interesting comment about the CROs. Knowledge that the CROs have not passed data on to satisticians would be considered material, would it not? Trading this knowledge would be illegal would it not?
You are right JR, perhaps you should short this price.
Perhaps you will need to find another exchange because we are no longer trading on OTC since we passed 5/15 without any notice.
Perhaps Lind Liau did not present the statistical model for this trial, perhaps it was for another, perhaps she got the raw data for that model from Optune and Celldex and not one of two regulators, perhaps that regulator was EMEA, perhaps data lock wasn’t really data lock and they are planning to continue the trial indefinitely, perhaps the SAP wasn’t approved by all 4 regulators, perhaps I should have said just two, perhaps some people still have shorts to cover, perhaps some longs are willing to sell for less than $10, perhaps some less than $30, perhaps some longs will hold to see where this ends up going, and perhaps Linda P will have nothing of value to say tomorrow, perhaps a regulator would remove all placebo from a trial and force patients to take an active drug with the knowledge that said drug does not work, perhaps all 4 regulators would agree with this action.
Perhaps Linda L will be the one saying everything in the near future.
Perhaps this is quite literally a rocket ship with some similarities to that other rocket ship company.
Perhaps shorts are already screwed but have bias that they can’t let go of. Perhaps they will try again after the ASM. Perhaps some welcome that opportunity.
I am only one small fish with a price target that warrants buying, not selling. Is that the warrants everyone keeps worrying about?
I do not give financial advice to others, I am only sharing my opinion which is flawed by biases. Like my bias that DCVAX will first be the SOC for GBM, then for other solid tumor cancers with L for those that are resectable and D for those that are not. This is speculation and one that I factor into my share price targets.
You must set your own targets and invest at your own risk.
I like your logarithmic chart better, but it seems you are on a roll!
Thanks, Sojo
Be careful of stop losses please. There will be tricks coming to try to save some semblance of FACE.
Sacrificial bonfire must burn!
Quite helpful, thank you!
Strange things are afoot at the Circle K...So we should be getting some news about OTC very soon, if that is to be construed as news. ASM may provide a couple nuggets, and then the game is on. I certainly hope for one last dip, but sometimes contingency planning is a wasted exercise. Oh well, better luck next time and this time.
My eyes will be focused on 5/19 and 6/3. The others are for others here to interpret for me. I will see those for myself. Darn it! I work the evening of 5/19, that gets in the way of the important things in life. I will really enjoy not having to say that in the future.
Can someone repost the upcoming Dr. Linda Liau presentations? I’d like to stay laser focused on meaningful information as the Fudsters attempt to sow doubt this week.
I know ASM is tomorrow, ASCO late breakers get release on 6/3, but I don’t recall the cadence of events during the 15 days in between, and maybe after? There may be other indicators too, I am sorry that I have jumped to the end of the breadcrumb trail and have lost scent of the steps between. The olfactory senses tend to get dominated by certain things and the smell of victory right now is clouding some of the details.
Marzan, imagine what you could do with laser guided surgery, followed by neo adjuvant precision CAR-T cell burst followed by SOC DCVAX with CI followed by properly attenuated NK cells... no chemo, possibly radiation.
You could do all of that without BP, even without CRL but why would you leave them out. The CI would probably have to be a separate company but who cares.
So Utah was peer review but not publish, ASCO and NEJM are both, and patent is published but not peer reviewed.
That has a nice symmetry about it. A bow with 4 Regulators, with one being EMEA not Germany, but und Deutchland. That too has symmetry. I really like these patterns.
Would you consider a patent peer reviewed and published?
I am really moving past the idea of top line news, past the near certainty of global approval, already signaled knowledge regarding SOC, and even when another company wants to study another drug, THEY HAVE TO BUY DCVAX FROM YOU FOR EVERY PATIENT AT FULL MARKET PRICE.
How funny is that?
I know there are many other ways to win at biotechs, and I know they have different patterns, but for those that like patterns....my recollection is that Dendreon was hanging down around $1-1.50, then results propelled it to like $20 before pulling back to the teens. There was a stop loss steal just before news struck about TLD. Then came approval which shot us to $50+, landed at the twenties for a spell and slowly worked its way into a hole.
They had a weak process.
They needed to lymphopheresis 13 separate times.
They couldn’t make money at $250k.
$250k was once a lot of money for a drug.
Whatever you may think about CAR-Ts there is a market, it is quite large, and we know there could be a lot more potential if someone can figure out how to harness them better. I have some ideas and if you know me from the other board, I bet you can think of new ways too. Again, I haven’t done much homework, but I think these guys may have a slightly better mouse trap, and again my guess is other people do too.
I have taken a long position. I am not an investment advisor. I am not an advisor of any kind. I am not offering you any investment advice. You must make investment decisions on your own. Invest at your own peril.
We never had data lock and an SAP before
My plan is to keep most in here or be square but there are some good values out there with great near term potential. I think if we put our eyes on two or three short term, one or two long term and park the rest right here, the short term plays could get you further faster.
With multiple eyes and multiple angles, I think that I can feel reasonably confident that 3 of 4 pay off and pay off big. At some point, another NWBO shows up, then BINGO this ship gets real. I am willing to play along with those whose opinions I have come to trust.
You make me almost pee my pants. I don’t know why I kept anything on the sidelines for one last attack. It ain’t gonna happen and we ain’t looking back. I wish I had had more faith in you chartists all along. Everyone has been seeing the patterns they have trained their own eyes to see.
The question is how many short shares are there really? That is the billion dollar question. Just how many need to cover as well as who is willing to sell to them for less than $34....or $46 or whatever your number is.
A new GBM SOC is going to bring in over $3B globally. Half seems in the bag to some and all seems in the bag to others. That is a lot of marbles to play with. Couple that with all sorts of mice and in vitro models and it seems like we have something real special here that you may just want to stand still...I don’t know, but I’ve been told.
We can do this again and again and take it all back...but it has to be together.
That is what our geeky tech buddies who love Super Mario have taught us. I should know, one of them is my son. It is when the student teaches the master something they didn’t know before is true, that is when they have earned their black belt. The gamestoppers want GameStop and they do not care what you think. GameStop can become something else but game stop means something to them. The gamestoppers taught us that...so did the deadheads...so does Bono...and absolutely does Linda Liau and Linda Powers.
That is knowledge and it requires capitalism, but Warren Buffet and Bill Gates do exist as does our friends Bright Boy and Poor Man. I love biotech, absolutely love it and love that we can compete in it. I don’t care what other people think when I know they are not right. I can be unrelenting but I need the help of others to put the pieces together and see the patterns...Gestalt. They do not have to be more powerful than us, but we need to take things one step at a time just like Linda Powers.
“Make no small plans, they have no magic to stir mens’ hearts”
I want to turn this whole thing upside down.
Swegen, well said. When I look back, I realize that this has actually been one hell of a fun ride. The dark days allowed me to spread the light far and wide, I mean at those prices how couldn’t you. I am ready for what comes next...
If you want to come along here you go...The whole thing is great but start at 28:40 for the purposes of this post.... and play until at least 35:30
It is fascinating the memories you restore. Thank you. I am not sure that I ever followed that as closely as you both have but I always felt that from you and others, I had the gestalt.
Thank you.
We at the very heart of everything are in complete agreement then. Geneva Convention is a very important agreement. So are what Plato and Hippocrates taught. The how and why and thereafter can be debated, but the agreements to be understanding were understood back at $12. That is why many including LP were shocked by the reactions but could not say anything more about it until the coming weeks. I am not sure she ever really had the true picture revealed in any way until November 2020, but she is no fool. Everything else including me are just the big show, show case. Except for all the works being done behind the scenes by both Linda’s.
Behind every great woman is another great women and two men in this case as well as hundreds of others but those two have earned all of the praise. So I shout from the Mountain top. I have never witnessed such brilliant maneuvering.
Well I propose that one explanation for what we saw happen in August may be that deaths are evaluated in an unblind fashion by the DSM and that the 2:1 randomization could lead to them calling an alert that only they and a regulator need know the details about. But that that impacts everything and that needs to be corrected for in the short term and in the long term. People need to be given drug and studies should still continue if there is to be value in the future.
In the end, whether you beieve in Linda or Linda or both or rules or regulations or laws, however you come to the conclusion we came to, we know what we know and we really do know it. A coincidence is just a coincidence, and when there are so many coincidences, some are to be misjudged, but probably tells you that
One in ten times one in three times four in five is just twelve in 150 which is smaller than any of them individually...this connects to Gestalt. As humans we can see patterns. Not all of those interpretations need to be correct, because the ones that are if there are a few or even better more, will dominate the probability of being wrong.
I meant to attach to one of your chains but I did not so this is a repeat, but not a waste.
Biosect I am not talking to you when I have included those. I find that when someone attacks me if I reply it gets deleted. So I reply when I talk on other chains. I mean nothing but good tidings to you. Believe me please. I have been misread.
I also like to fool around. Please do not take me too seriously. You are not MOh or my ex-friend or any other. They get away with saying things that we do not so one must change course. I think there is a clear line in the sand and it is black and white. The pulpit is a good way to show that. We my friend are on the same side of that line and so are you flip and so are many here. I do get preachy and I find it to be fun. That does not mean I don’t mean what I say, just that we are all fallible as am I. I think you all misunderstood me and my intentions. Friends can disagree about the future and writers can tell stories in many ways so as to reach as far as they can.
Again I apologize for the remarks, they are not aimed at you, and I am deeply sorry
I also only get 15 posts so I try to be judicious and say a lot and whirlwind on purpose. But point taken and I will alter direction, try not to involve you and try to be more clear. It is just that the clearer I get when responding to them, it seems to get treated differently than the initial volley so I started to side step. I will change course.
On a lighter and happier note. What is your take on safety reporting in 2015?
Biosect I am not talking to you when I have included those. I find that when someone attacks me if I reply it gets deleted. So I reply when I talk on other chains. I mean nothing but good tidings to you. Believe me please. I have been misread.
I also like to fool around. Please do not take me too seriously. You are not MOh or my ex-friend or any other. They get away with saying things that we do not so one must change course. I think there is a clear line in the sand and it is black and white. The pulpit is a good way to show that. We my friend are on the same side of that line and so are you flip and so are many here. I do get preachy and I find it to be fun. That does not mean I don’t mean what I say, just that we are all fallible as am I. I think you all misunderstood me and my intentions. Friends can disagree about the future and writers can tell stories in many ways so as to reach as far as they can.
Again I apologize for the remarks, they are not aimed at you, and I am deeply sorry
I also only get 15 posts so I try to be judicious and say a lot and whirlwind on purpose.
On a lighter and happier note. What is your take on safety reporting in 2015?
Only traders get burned trading, investors stay invested.
Cheerleading is fun. Dendreaming is fun. Educated guesses are such, they are guesses and they are educated.
If traders can’t tell the difference then shame on them. Answers are known, maybe not by the educated guessers but by many at this point and the list is growing exponentially. It is time for these events to unfold. Time is relative.
For example, ASCO presentations are 15 minutes, Grand rounds are generally one hour or as long as you need if you need it,please just let us know. Are you okay with us broadcasting to invited guests and dot edu?
Was Utah peer review? Yes it was
Was Utah publication? No it is not
Is ASCO peer review publication? Yes it is
Is Neuro Oncology peer review publication? Yes it is
Is BLA submission peer review publication? Yes it is
Are there any remaining questions?
Are the answers to these questions my opinion?
My friends this is motivational interviewing but it must be sincere.
You see some people are born certain ways, some people like to understand the rules of the game, some people like to enforce them, some people learn to find loopholes for good and some for evil, some people are dyslexic, some things correlate strongly with others, back to some people learning the rules and adapting to their environments and what is expected despite what they feel inside, but this does not mean that those people are not being themselves and following their light, it means precisely the opposite. Do you understand MOhh? Very few do, but my wife and kids do, as does my best friend. Perhaps, now my brother does
The beautiful thing about GBM if those words can ever be uttered is that it was predictable as all get out. We shall see if Recurrent GBM has diminishing probability as well.
Once this has been scientifically established there is no need for placebo. It is barbaric.
Two new variables can be added to the future, especially if one connects the past to the future with these new variables, DCVAX and IDH.
Then a new comparison arm can be captured for future trials. Does this address and meet your final concerns?
Brought to you by ancient Greece. Not me and not Geneva
This is one reason we honor Spartans as well as the reason we honor the Fighting Ilini.
Some people like Usan Bolt dominate 100 Meters
Some people like Edwin Moses conquer every single obstacle they face over a quarter mile and in life not just for 9 years and 9 months
Some people win gold medals on home ice against enemies despite being college kids against seasoned professionals trained their whole lives by their government
And some people devote their lives to helping others find their end more slowly and more comfortably, and then get hit by the light and think of a way to help them, then they test it, then they seek help from others, then they build plans, then they convince others, then they get praise, then they continue to work, then they convince others, they they stand on the Mountain to be judged by all but also to sing and receive what they deserve. Then things move forward with them involved but also with new people who help other people in similar situations.
O yea, your point. Some things happen quickly and some things take more time...then we can all negotiate what comes next.
Along the way some people do make money and do have a choice how and what to do forever after.
If you got a hole in one that is a GD sign, my brother. I am no good at the game, but find it fun once in a long while. That takes extreme focus and then letting go with a touch of that which comes from the wind and rain.
It is telling you to follow that which is within you.