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Time for a celebration.
Vdex, Mannkind's #1 partner, has updated their facebook page.
Now they have their address correct.
21201 Victory Blvd, Suite 265
Canoga Park, California, CA 91303
With positive steps like this, success is assured.
Number 1 there's no such thing as a quiet period.
Number 2 there's no rule against speaking to the public while you're negotiating on an unrelated issue.
Number 3 Biomm is just puff, and does nothing to address the very serious issues facing Mannkind which are:
1. Afrezza is very unpopular
2. Afrezza is less effective than the competition
3. Afrezza is far more expensive than the competition
4. Mannkind owes lots of money
5. Mannkind loses lots of money
As of March 31st, 2017 Mannkind has 3.128 million dollars of Afrezza in inventory. They sold the insulin they had. They changed their agreement with Amphastar to postpone buying insulin.
They might as well sell their last little bit of Afrezza for as much as they can get.
The question is why are they doing what they are doing? I believe they're transmitting a very clear message by their actions. Whether people are willing to accept that message --- that's the question.
10Q -> http://investors.mannkindcorp.com/secfiling.cfm?filingID=1193125-17-166004&CIK=899460
That does suck, expensive. Especially because all kids hate needles. Insurance needs to get behind this. Greed dominates healthcare
Mannkind had a pediatric trial. They tried to convince people aged 4 to 17 to sign up. After months of work they had two youngsters signed up, and decided to cancel the trial.
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02527265
Enrollment: 2
Study Start Date: October 2015
Our sales force has finally just gotten fully up and running.
In the first ten weeks of 2016, after Sanofi dumped Mannkind noting that Afrezza was not a commercially viable product, Afrezza sold an average of 390 prescriptions per week. That was with no sales people.
After hiring a large sales staff, sales are down to 269.
With all the various sales initiatives and partnerships over the last year, sales have never even gotten close to where they were with no sales people.
Since Sanofi dumped Mannkind the revenue from selling buildings has been more than double that of selling prescription drugs.
Breakeven scripts are still somewhere around 10,000 per week.
The three worst financing transactions in the history of stock trading all belong to NWBO.
The one in March was horrible.
The one May 26th was a huge giveaway, 12% interest for 5 days which amounts to more than 860% interest.
The latest transaction on May 31st was a huge neon sign saying No One Believes in this Company, here are some shares to dump.
The short interest is up by almost 2.5 million shares to a 52 week (split-adjusted) high.
Mannkind's recent 10Q painted a very gloomy outlook and it appears investors have realized bankruptcy is the most likely outcome.
http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/mnkd/short-interest
Gold reacted in a very predictable way to rising interest rates. The long bond future dropped more than a point today. That happened first, and then the dollar reacted to rising interest rates, and then gold reacted to the dollar.
3017 people took Afrezza in the clinical trial.
994 disliked it so much they didn't last until the end of the trial. 2023 completed the trial.
There were 1958 reports of adverse events, so-called TEAE.
And after all that bad news it was less successful than Aspart in keeping people in their blood sugar range.
After the trial was over the bad news continued with a few patients reporting lung cancer, vocal cord paralysis, ...
Since then Mannkind hasn't started its FDA mandated Afrezza safety clinical trial.
I saved the most bizarre item for last. Almost universally people using Afrezza suffer from a decrease in lung function. But Mannkind continually brags that that side-effect goes away a period of time after you stop using it. Want to breathe better? Stop using Afrezza and wait a while. Very simple!
You're have it exactly 100% backwards.
It's all explained right here (and I quote below):
http://www.dtcc.com/en/clearing-services/equities-clearing-services/cns
If you buy shares, that gives them shares to lend. If you sell they have no shares to lend.
If everyone is pessimistic and sells their Dryships shares then there are no shares for your brokerage to lend.
CNS short positions, which represent securities owed by Members to NSCC, are compared against their DTC accounts to determine availability. If shares are available, they are delivered from the Member's account at DTC to NSCC's account at DTC to cover Members' short obligations to CNS. Members can use CNS exemptions to control the automatic delivery of securities from their DTC accounts (partial settlements are permissible).
These are the problems with Mannkind.
They have an FDA trial with poor results: inferior results to SOC.
They file poor results in their SEC filings: no cash, no authorized shares, etc.
They have a shareholder meeting where the CEO won't speak and they invite a cheerleader from another company to come speak to preach the false idea of Afrezza being sold OTC without a prescription.
Whenever you have clearly dishonest management you have to bring the focus back to what they've told the government in clinical trials and SEC filings. That's important, because that NEWS IS 100% BAD.
This is a perfect example of shareholders being mislead.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/3966535-mannkind-bankruptcy-table
Mannkind pretended that an ability to sell X dollars of shares, meant:
1. There was a buyer
2. That authorized shares were high enough to raise the money
But that is all 100% false!
The A1C reduction is worse than RAA. RAA is worse than Exubera.
Afrezza is the worst of all.
That was reported months before approval. Everyone knew the bad news, and had a chance to sell above ten dollars per share.
Fast acting just means a needle prick for a blood test after you finish eating, and another very expensive dose of Afrezza.
Lots of side effects is a joke and you know it.
How many Afrezza patients weren't even able to finish the trial because of so-called 'adverse events'?
Trust Mannkind's report.
A link to FDA trial info is in the iBox. There's plenty of clues in it as to why Afrezza is a commercial failure.
Who cares about the past as we are now moving forward.
My point exactly.
Huge debt.
Little cash.
Virtually non-existent sales.
Lots of negative side-effects.
Less effective than the competition.
We're still moving forward on the exact same path we've been on for many months.
Just because Mannkind is only down 59% this year instead of 64% like it was Friday doesn't mean that there's still not a 100% probability of bankruptcy.
Nothing has changed. Exubera was more effective than RAA in keeping patients in range. Afrezza is less effective. Is it any surprise that a less effective drug hasn't turned a losing drug launch into a winning one?
Here's the scorecard. Since approval investors have lose 2.9 billion dollars on Mannkind. There's only 135 million left to go.
The author of that piece doesn't understand what they're talking about.
It says: "two of those growing instruments were financial derivatives and credit-default swaps".
To begin with obviously a credit default swap is a financial derivative. All financial derivatives share one thing in common, they're zero sum. For every dollar one person makes someone else loses a dollar. So money is just being transferred between people, the world doesn't become richer or poorer as the result of a derivative transaction.
That has virtually nothing in common with a government-created housing bubble where when your house drops in value, nobody receives any money. That money is lost to the world.
If you're looking for someone who took risk without there being any potential price to pay for their mistakes, it's the government not FNMA.
That just means that when dollars go up in value they buy more Yen, gold, and everything else, so the price of gold, yen, etc. drops.
You can see the same principle in Banro stock. The Canadian dollar is worth a lot less US dollars than it was worth a few years ago. Therefore Banro shares in the US have fallen in price more than they have in Canada.
Securities fraud, yes. Back to old point: why let the shares continue to trade?
Because the SEC does not have the legal right to unilaterally stop any company from trading for more than two weeks.
FNMA SEC filings are very clear on what the government has done to shareholders. All you get is disclosure, what you do with it is up to you.
Obviously people are hoping that the government or courts come to their senses. They're also hoping that happens sometime soon.
https://www.sec.gov/fast-answers/answerstradinghalthtm.html
The average patient has progression after 1.7 months.
Nobody was allowed in the trial who had progression after two months.
Right from the beginning it is trivial to see that the sickest 50% of patients weren't allowed in the trial.
Now we just have to figure out if not allowing them in has any affect on how long the group is likely to survive. That's something to ponder.
We don't know the patients are doing better because we don't know when the primary endpoint was reached and how long that was after the patients enrolled.
But we do now that in every important category NWBO excluded the group most likely to die sooner. We know from the GBM Kaplan Meier Estimates posted earlier this week that each category (resection, age and strength) is statistically significant to the .01% level.
There are at least six different categories NOT INCLUDING AGE where NWBO clearly removed the group most likely to have a short lifespan.
It's all completely clearly factual. We've already been through this before but which group is most likely to die sooner:
1. Those with a projected life expectancy under eight weeks.
2. Those with a projected life expectancy greater than eight weeks.
Which group did NWBO not allow to enroll?
Here's the point of it all. Investors with money have already picked sides. Even Woodford Trust won't invest another cent and has apologized to its investors for their losses.
Since May first's close gold is down 2 dollars an ounce.
GDXJ is up 4.1%.
GDXJ can't keep outperforming the price of gold every single week.
Since the National Institute of Health quotes their numbers, as you did by linking to that study, I consider them a reliable source for money spent on this disease, number of patients, etc.
I think it's highly relevant given that people consistently quote likely revenue numbers that are larger than what is spent on 100% of insured patients today for all of the treatment they get for this disease.
How BIG is the entire SOLID TUMOR market?
Wouldn't life be better if Northwest Bio management was honest enough to use the data from the Truven Health Analytics MarketScan Research database regarding GBM that you linked to earlier today (and that I linked to long ago) to define the probable market size?
The day before the selling started Dryships traded at 46.20. Now it's 4 dollars.
It took two reverse splits to sell 35% of the shares.
If the final 65% of selling forces the stock down at the same rate I calculate it'll end up at 4.3 cents.
4 * (4/46.20) ^ (.65/.35) equals 4.252.
Summary: One nurse who doesn't like treating diabetics with insulin and doesn't know her zip code. A web site created by a part-time developer in two hours.
The zip code for that address is 91303 not 91367. 91367 is Woodland Hills California.
You can tell for sure because there are other people who think they're at the suite that Vdex claims to rent:
https://www.yelp.com/biz/equity-protector-financial-services-canoga-park
If you google 818 vdexdiabetes two phone numbers come up. One with a doctor that has a 1 star review at google and is accused of ripping people off. The other 818 doesn't appear anywhere except in VDEX's privacy policy.
The other number 866 4DIABETES translates to "866 445 8267" and comes up as a nurse at this address (different zip code and suite # from FaceBook) 21201 VICTORY BLVD STE 154 CANOGA PARK, CA 91303-4051.
This is what google has saved in its cache and said she did (though it's now been deleted) "Non-Insulin Injectable Therapies for Diabetes".
http://www.hipaaspace.com/Medical_Billing/Coding/National_Provider_Identifier/Codes/NPI_1356888051.aspx
She's 4 years out of nursing school.
This is an alternate name for the http://www.vdexdiabetes.com web site -> http://ian-eyre.squarespace.com/
Ian Eyre is a stunt coordinator in Hollywood -> http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0264226/
March 1st 2016 (5 days after Mann's death) the Vdex web site existed with all of its testimonials, even though at that time it had no phone number and had not started business.
On June 2nd 2016 the web site said: Currently we have multiple offices under development but are not yet able to publicly announce them. So as not to misinform anyone we will be announcing locations as they open nationwide.
Sometime in October 2016 a phone # was finally added to the web site (the 866 #).
The vDex New Jersey office appears to have been stillborn.
If you want a good laugh, please check Corker's tweet and responses:
I can't click +1, or Like here, so I'll just add that some people forget that FNMA & Freddie have also paid many billions in taxes over the last couple years while the government has been stealing from them.
For our local word parsers ...
Here's the key thing for these patients. Methylation status is such an important factor predicting survivalability, including a small percentage in this clinical trial makes a substantial impact on, for example, a PFS value.
That's why knowing the key demographic statistics for what subset of patients the company enrolled would've been so helpful.
1. Much higher price
2. No faster onset than Lispro
3. More side effects
4. Side effects are more severe.
5. 13.8% success at keeping a patient within proper blood glucose range. Aspro almost twice as effective at 27.1%.
The problem is that doctors have read about Afezza's results, and being far worse while more expensive doesn't excite them.
https://www.accessdata.fda.gov/drugsatfda_docs/label/2014/022472lbl.pdf
Here's a summary of his article.
1. If you're uncomfortable with your non-Mannkind investments sell until you're comfortable.
2. If you're uncomfortable with your Mannkind investment forget about Mannkind and think about Celgene. But, believe it or not, Mannkind's drug Afrezza is not an idea, it's a proven commercial failure
Thanks to him, and you, for giving us a glimpse into the advice that people usually have to pay for.
What he doesn't tell you is that shorts have a heads I win, tails you lose game going.
If Mannkind dilutes they win because the price falls and there's a bunch of new shares to short. If Mannkind doesn't dilute they win after bankruptcy.
American Airlines takes care of business in the air. Good for them!
Plane landed safely 40 minutes ago.
A man was subdued after he tried to breach the cockpit of an American Airlines flight to Honolulu, a source familiar with the situation told ABC News.
American Airlines said in a statement that law enforcement met the plane upon landing in Honolulu following a "disturbance" on the flight.
A source at the TSA told ABC News that the man was waiting for the bathroom near the cockpit when a flight attendant asked him to sit down. He had a laptop with him and appeared to try the cockpit door before he was subdued, the source said.
Law enforcement is now responding to analyze a suspicious item associated with the man, a source told ABC News.
Flight 31 from Los Angeles landed safely at 11:35 a.m. local time, according to American Airlines.
The incident is under investigation.
http://abcnews.go.com/US/man-subdued-disturbance-flight-honolulu-source/story?id=47520712
This is even worse. As a solution to Mannkind's financial woes, they're claiming that Mannkind can cut prices by 90% (or more) to 30 dollars and start to turn a profit.
Read the SEC filing. Last quarter Mannkind's sales were at less than 50% of cost. When you're selling dollars for 50 cents, you can't make a profit selling them for a nickel.
5) Matt is fully aware of the cash runway BUT he has three priorities he is focused on in the near term. Raising cash is not one of them at least not yesterday. You can surmise what that could mean. I suspect that if the three priorities he's currently working on come to fruition, obtaining cash won't be an issue which I've said on this board too. And to be clear, their cash runway in not dry as of yesterday's meeting. IT isn't. The DTC campaign will launch in July as it should. By then, endocrinologists will know full well that Afrezza is here to stay. Period. End of Quote. Let the disruption begin.
If that's an accurate quote, and I don't think it is, it's shocking. I think Mannkind has been honest that they don't plan to dilute (they have few shares available, and it's not feasible at any reasonable price), and every other option is very difficult.
I do agree that everyone should be able surmise what it means. If they can't then almost no sales, almost no cash, and lots of debt provide additional clues.
Have you ever heard of naked shorts or is this new for you or maybe you are a believer they don't exist!
I've seen that argument many times. The short interest is all shorts. Naked, clothed, whatever other types you can think of, ...
We seem to have an ongoing issue here of what a subset is.
NWBO enrolled a very small subset of all GBM patients.
Naked shorts are a very small subset of all shorts.
The subset is part of the entire set. Neither subset is representative of the entire sample, but each subset is part of the entire set.
Let me try it, have you heard of the group of patients that NWBO enrolled? They're not actually GBM patients, because they're only part of the group. Sounds weird huh?
That is why the shorts are trying to bring it as low as posible so the gain won't wipe out their profit. At this price they can try to short it again!
Actually the short interest is left than half of what it was in March.
With the horrible prospects they've been one of the few buyers.
Thank you to the shorts for keeping this above 15 cents.
http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/NWBO/short-sales
The company should've definitely announced this especially after the trading indicated that the news broke to some investors, and not to everyone.
Amnesty International's Facebook list got the info early Wednesday morning, and they probably have emails lists that get fired to the members. Here's the facebook post.
--- in every way, it's just all so sad ---
FHFA Sues 17 Banks Over Massive Mortgage Losses at Fannie and Freddie. September 2, 2011. This proves the GSEs not at fault.
Filing a lawsuit probably doesn't prove anything.
The fact that FHFA filed lawsuits AND WON is what's important.
A lot of the details are here: https://www.fhfa.gov/Media/PublicAffairs/pages/fhfas-update-on-private-label-securities-actions.aspx
General Electric Company $6.25 million
2. CitiGroup Inc. ?$250 million
?3. UBS Americas, Inc. (Union Bank of Switzerland) ?$885 million
?4. J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. ?$4 billion
?5. Deutsche Bank AG $1.925 billion
6. Ally Financial, Inc. $475 million
7. Morgan Stanley $1.25 billion
8. SG Americas (Societe Generale) $122 million
9. Credit Suisse Holdings (USA) Inc. $885 million
10. Bank of America Corp.
11. Merrill Lynch & Co.
12. Countrywide Financial Corporation
$5.83 billion
?13. Barclays Bank PLC $280 million
?14. First Horizon National Corp. ?$110 million
?15. RBS Securities, Inc. (in Ally action) ??$99.5 million
?16. Goldman Sachs & Co. ?$1.2 billion
?17. HSBC North America Holdings, Inc. (Hong Kong Shanghai Banking Corp.)
A report of the violence was posted to twitter before the market opened today. She posted it when it was about 1pm her time, and said it happened Wednesday (yesterday).
See her twitter timeline here:
https://twitter.com/judithverweijen/with_replies
p.s. I like to think the world makes sense, no one was dumping Banro yesterday because the price of gold was up.
All my friends say that Mannkind is worth 4 billion and should be at 35 bucks a share, why is at 1.12?
Why do shorts think this is overpriced?
This article answers those questions:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4074453-reading-mannkinds-sec-documents-help-investors-preserve-capital
Preferred will have an advantage out of Conservatorship if the existing share structure survives restructuring. That's really the only way.
I've seen good arguments on both sides of whether that'll be decided by the courts or congress. I think it's very tough to know.