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What will the BIG SPIN be this year?
ASM 2021 spin: IN FOUNDRIES! - COMMERCIALIZATION IMMINENT!
ASM 2022 spin: KITCHEN RECIPE'S BEING TWEAKED FOR YEAR END PDK COMPLETION!
ASM 2023 spin: VAGUE DEAL PROVES COMMERCIAL ACCEPTANCE (no matter that it was with Polariton for plasmonic, research-oriented - non-volume devices, or that 200mm wafers in Foundries were't working yet though...oops!)
ASM 2024 spin: ??? Revenue projections? ???????? I can't wait.
DOD: No manipulation that I see - the price is still 9x the historical market cap, and is one of the highest pre-revenue mcaps in all of the market (just do a screen on Zacks to verify).
Institutions buy the index - so if they bought at $18 a share, so what? It's passive...no need to think a big institution like Blackrock is going to pay any attention to anything a CEO of a 20 man company says when their investment approach is passive.
AMF launches latest PDK with differential modulators -- no mention of Lightwave or perkanimine or polymers even.
Note the bolded part:
SiPhab 4.5 provides designers with a diverse array of high-speed devices, enabling the creation of 200G/lane designs for 800G and 1.6T applications. Among these devices, the latest 40GHz differential modulator stands out prominently. This version also introduces enhancements to bandwidth-enhanced SPP modulators, bi-directional monitor photodetectors, high-power photodetectors, multi-layer nitride edge couplers, and grating couplers tailored individually for O and C bands.
https://www.advmf.com/advanced-micro-foundry-unveils-siphab-4-5-empowering-800g-1-6t-communication-with-next-generation-pdk/
So, is a PDK with Lightwave technology still in "development" as yesterday's PR suggests? Of course it is! Remember the latest 10Q says they are still working on PDKs - never once has the company validated a completed PDK despite what Lightning_Rod interprets:
$144,871 qtrly revenues is the highest in the company's history, by far.
Along with going current this is perhaps a very good sign of things coming together finally.
..
Today will determine if we head on down to the 2s or not.
IF Claudia dazzles (and I agree by the way) more than Dr Lebby in terms of providing MEANINGFUL information...well..it may be a very long summer.
AMF isn’t a licensee or deal. This is just naming a Foundry they ate working with.
They started with five for all we know at this point AMF may be the only remaining foundry.
Hopefully today we will get granular information that shows the kind of detail we want about both the Foundry work and potential deals.
If you read yesterday’s release very carefully, it leaves many questions unanswered about the current development status.
Ask these questions today, folks. However, don’t expect any answers.
LWLG has its annual shareholder meeting tomorrow: Stock may react positively or negatively as a result. Personally I'm negative on the company for many reasons, but traders may want to check it out tomorrow.
yeah, looks like they've been working on it for some time and may be getting real close....with that low float it could really move..
BCDS tweet from 1 week ago:
Hopefully complete our transaction by end of month. $BCDS
— Blaqclouds, Inc. (@BlaqcloudsBCDS) May 14, 2024
Now you all know what ASM 2024 is going to be like. Read the PR over and over -- that's what you'll hear tomorrow and imo not much more...
Good luck .
Sir, open your eyes. How many times do shareholders like you need to be told that no analyst is supporting Lightwave and no actively managed institution is buying any significant shares? The institutions that own the most are the largest ones in the world that buy passively in order to match indexes and likely have no idea what Lightwave even does.
If you are going to make a case for Lightwave, at least go it based on things that are true.
You are a pastor or priest right? That should be your guiding principle, right?
I consider the details to be quite vague. See the question I gave KCC to ask about Foundry work yesterday.
Lebby never said hyperscalers liked what they were doing so much that they got Lightwave into - and funded development with - world class foundries - yet that is the narrative proto and others push down shareholders throats on a regular basis.
The evidence is in the tea leaves and what the company actually HAS said and has NOT said:
After ECOC 2023 the company touted 'interest in learning' by the big boys. That spilled the beans about how little interest the big companies ever had before ECOC.
I'm not MINIMIZING progress - I'm EXPOSING how minimal it actually has been.
But I"m not saying the company has never misled shareholders either - they have and badly. ASM 2021, ASM 2022, ASM 2023 all badly misled you. What's it going to be now in ASM 2024?
Read today's announcement very carefully...I challenge you to do that...
..
Lying about what? I just posted a link from Feb 9 predicting today's announcement. This company has become so easy to read, once you realize their mojo is obfuscation and serving up carrot salad...especially when the mob is about to gather...It's almost funny.
Here is it again:
I see I've touched a nerve since I was once again right....oh well..good luck everyone. NEWCOMERS - you've been warned -- ASM 2021 duped many newcomers into buying and just look at the chart now...yikes
Dreaming can be good - of course. I'm here to simply point out the reality though...
back up your accusation with facts -- you know - like I do...otherwise apologize..you hate it when I'm right and you are wrong, just like Pumpkin post say at the bottom...
I know you all hate it when I'm right but I'm trying to help newcomers see the truth - the reality - of Lightwave Logic
I predicted a small foundry announcement going into ASM and it has happened.
It is small because the narrative of hyperscalers pushing Perkanaimine modulators into a huge Foundry like Intel is something used to DUPE retail investors, and all the tea leaves supported that.
The tea leaves support this as being something moving very slowly with little to no industry support.
That doesn't mean this doesn't have some value - but the timeline to commercialization and acceptance by the industry is way further down the road - if ever - based on the tea leaves - than a $500 milion valuation would support. That's why the short position is so high in this stock.
TRUTH.
Exactly as I predicted this on Feb 9:
I know, right? It won't happen.
What manufacturing and/or performance hurdles remain to be overcome on 200mm wafers, for 800gbs and 1600gbs with each of your Polymer Plus and Polymer Slot technologies- before the Foundries you are working with will qualify the Lightwave technology/processes into a ready-for-commercialization PDK? Specify the status of each hurdle (ie what are the yields and all of the other standards, how many modulators (total and average pctg) pass all minimum standards per wafer, how much time it takes from start to finish, and the added cost of Lightwave technology) and how it compares to the requirements of the Foundry.
In other words, I want a detailed status report of the Plus and Slot technology FROM THE FOUNDRY PERSPECTIVE so shareholders know exactly what they have accomplished and what remains to be accomplished before they would be able to have a commercially viable product.
If he doesn't want to provide all of that detail I'd like to know his reasoning behind that decision, especially in light of the claim that they really have the only viable eop game in town and that they are superior to all competing materials.
.
Newcomers: who doesn't want a homerun stock?:
proprietary technology✔️
patent-protected✔️
potential to serve large market✔️
strong leadership background✔️
near to commercialization ❓️ imo no
undiscovered by larger markets✔️
proven technology to last for years❓️imo no
undervalued❓️imo no
management willing to sacrifice 🇳🇴
industry expert support 🇳🇴
Deal-breaker: management that repeatedly misleads its own shareholders, and has a strong incentive to do so. ✔️
All Antwerp info is hearsay. Make it public. Otherwise, people can misinterpret and misremember what was said - Spekkie's first statement was a bit different than the later one. See for yourself. True this.
I don't remember but may well has said by the next ASM but I do remember saying by the end of the year (calendar)...and that by this summer people will be asking what all the people in the expansion space are actually doing....many here seem to think I'm negative for all kinds of reasons other than the actual one: I'm negative because it seems like the most logical position to take when someone cheats on you. This company seems similar to a cheating spouse of a friend stabbing you in the back.
You are mistaking me for someone else, apparently. I only tell the truth and here are 50 of them that longs find rather 'inconvenient', and 33 questions that longs have very few good answers to.
Please do find any lies and let me know which ones, and I'll modify the language:
FIRST FOR THE NEWCOMERS: to catch up on events occurring after the Red Flags sticky post at the top of the posts here which was published last August. That 'sticky' should at the least help you see the scope of the problem with this company.
1. Shareholders anticipate all reliability information to be released at ECOC (fall 2023), after which there will be no further delays in deal-making and 'floodgates' to open. ECOC resulted in select information being shared, and a report clearly indicating that for the first time companies were starting to want to learn more about what Lightwave offers. This was in contrast to the "Tier1s pushing the company' narrative now several years old.
2. Dec 4: CEO releases very positive shareholder letter when the stock is bleeding badly, which suggests strongly deals within a month or two. Tomorow it will be 5 months and still no deal.
3. Late February: CEO explains lack of deals due to requests for more evidence of reliability and scalability. CEO sets new goals for 2024 to be more transparent with investors to 'set expectations" - clearly an acknowledgement that his Dec 4 letter failed at doing that properly.
4. CEO announced as 'big milestone' 200mm wafer with working modulators from a foundry. Investors had thought this already happened 9-12 months prior.
5. 10k released which adds in the 200mm language, and shows low revenues which confirms that the deal already announced last ASM was not significant, despite hopes by investors to the contrary.
6. OFC comes and the hoped for transceiver demo does not happen. Rather he announces test results which sound as though 200gpbs were achieved on foundry modulators (though the wording is not clear). CEO makes off-cuff comment about thousands of modulators without discussing true status - ie hurdles re yields, reliability, scalability. Andy B does NOT confirm polymers are 'ready' despite Dr Lebby saying months ago he needed to 'update his slide'. Engineering team does show some kind of demo showing good signal strength but it's not a transceiver demo.
7. April: Ceo announces demo to be shown at ASM, and says in interview will be showing the demo to prospective clients over the next 6 months. This imo is an obvious 'tell' and a fulfillment of his intention to lower shareholder expectations - so that ASM doesn't arrive with expectations for a deal.
8.Late April, CEO meets with some shareholders in Europe. Stock falls immediately same day and in days after to new lows in the mid $3 area, while the market rises strongly. Lead guys put together 'secret' email indicating various positive messages from Dr Lebby - the main one being more positive statements lacking clarity re the true status of the technology, and the NEW explanation for the big miss in the Dec 4 letter that the company is now focusing on large companies, the addition of 2 new large ones since OFC - once again leading investors to expect a 'deal any day' in contrast to Dr Lebby's own 'funnel' slide from 2023 ASM saying start to finish takes 18 months. The Lightwave part-time salesmen reportedly told someone they now have tripled the NDAs from a few years ago, implying 40 have been signed. The faithful believe that is signifcant. The careful packaging of this new narrative out of the Eurpoean meeing in Antwerp helps stabilize the stock slightly.
9. Late April, for the first time an industry analyst, Mark Lutkowitz, posts on Linked-in some positive statements about Dr Lebby which matter-of-factly point out Dr Lebby's positioning in the industry as something he has leveraged to help market/argue for Lightwave's polymer solution to provide credibility. Mark's post received 18 reactions within hours. Mark further stated that he has not heard anything to suggest Lightwave's is 'offering something subtantial', with industry input being his criteria. This is as opposed to TFLN, which he has received significant feedback about. He posts that he believes there likely will be only one winner due to the large industry investment required and that it is likely to be TFLN. Several shareholder immediately try to discredit Mark's credibility.
Newcomers, don't be foolish. The above is entirely consistent with the pattern seen in the Top Three Red Flags sticky post, and also as shown in the following:
HERE ARE THE 50 REASONS THE STOCK IS LOW: https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=174225579
HERE ARE 33 QUESTIONS LONGS JUST DON'T HAVE MANY GOOD ANSWERS FOR: https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=174232127
The case against Lightwave is very strong. Not that they are a complete scam, but that anything they say with regard to timeline to commercialization can be trusted. Marco, a trusted poster here, repeatedly wrote that Dr Lebby's timeline all along has been 2024-2025. I went back and proved that in ASM 2021 - while a timeline was not explicitly stated,there was a slide showing 2019-->2020-->2021-->COMMERCIALIZATION Polymer Plus as clear day and the entire tone of the presentations implied that since the company had moved into foundries they would be announcing major commercial deals by late 2021- early 2022. This enabled the stock to organically uplist to Nasdaq, Dr Lebby and Marcelli to each be awarded $2.6m in cash bonuses,and every director to sell options for profits (several in the millions of dollars) by early 2022.
Nobody who is unbiased can watch minutes 6-20 in that presentation and think that Dr Lebby was selling a 3-5 year timeline. Marco has been called out 16 times now to acknowledge his error in judgement. Finally he responded by appealing to 2022, and not all the evidence from 2021!. Others have been challenged to refute this interpretation of ASM 2021, and no long has tried to refute it.They just can't. But they still trust Dr Lebby and his timeliness...
So many facts, but one has to be willing to see them...newcomer maybe they really do have something but with this company the devil is always in the lack of details...
welcome back
Yes. telling the truth is very respectful, and it's my mantra here and always has been.
Will Dr Lebby tell the truth on Wed? I guarantee this: He will only tell you what he has pre-determined that he will tell you, and that will be far less than anyone here wants to know.
The disrespect is telling
I think he is simply following the evidence. He hears from insiders at all of the biggest companies, as he has been around for almost 40 years.
People that discount his awareness I think are making a mistake. The only way that is wrong is if the NDA argument holds up completely and leaves Mark in the dark. I think dominos will start to fall as people begin to doubt the whole NDA thing..I mean who is going to believe they are under an NDA for 5 years with dozens of companies yet NOBODY seems to know anything?
but you didn't answer my question - why hasn't a smaller, forward looking optical transceiver company said to hell with the final reliabiity and scalability - this is SO FREAKIN GREAT that it is worth putting our engineers on this to create a demo transceiver so we can get ahead of the competition and have some data centers check it out?
This "Tier1" narrative imo is probably another ruse to dupe naive retail shareholders.
Do you remember saying a few months ago that you don't trust Marcelli - and the in the same breath proclaiming that he said a Tier1 transceiver company is working very closely with Lightwave (something to that effect)?
Instead of believing things that go against your own gut feeling - why not choose to let logic guide you instead?
You wrote
perkinamine...if it were more popular I'd know that spelling :)
publishing works is not the same as supplying the material
I don't worship at the feet of Mark, but he does seem to let EVIDENCE guide him, and I think he makes a valid point: The industry knows and has multiple players in a chain of support for TFLN, but it appears to know almost nothing of what Lightwave is doing .. the presentations come and go and have a profound effect on shareholders -- but seemingly nobody that matters. Not even Andy seems to care much anymore.
Maybe the ECOC reliability data woke a few people up...maybe the lab demo is creating 'interest' also but man oh man this seems worlds away from any kind of industry acceptance.
You seem to think the company is going to just out of the blue announce someday a major partnership with a Tier1 transceiver company and a foundry willing to work to supply modulators for that work, but why does it have to be that way? Why can't the company actually get a smaller , unknown but WILLING forward-looking optical transceiver company to work with them?
No - 8 Suppliers/Vendors of TFLN, but yes he listed quite a few large possible users - biggest in the business and included feedback from them -- something Lightwave has never done.
Established firms: Fujitsu Optical Components, Eoptolink and Advanced Fiber Resources (AFR)
US-based players: HyperLight and Hycom Core
Other Chinese participants: LiobateTechnologies, NanoLN and ORI CHIP
The point is that when a technology has promise other industry participants sprout up. Mark has said that one of the most obvious indicators of the LACK OF INDUSTRY INTEREST in polymers is the absence of Chinese companies suppling polymers to the industry.
These facts show that TFLN is a serious PARTICIPANT and EOP is still an outlier. That's why I think your market valuations are premature and the market should still consider perkamine to be an unproven technology unworthy of a significant premium valuation. The ONLY argument against that is Dr Lebby's credibility which IMO is no longer in tact.
Your fantasy 'sample conversation' is not worth my time. I always ignore it.
Show me where a single CEO in the entire industry says even 1/3 of your "sample" conversation and I'll start to care.
I've answered multiple times that TFLN leads by a landslide because that's what the evidence shows. Something like 8 suppliers of TFLN including a number of Chinese. Polymers? Where are the suppliers? Almost completely off the radar. Very much an outlier at this point. That's not what you want to see to support your fantasy that polymers are being taken seriously.
If that changes then we will have EVIDENCE that TFLN might be dispaced. Until then TFLN is the leader and polymers may never even get a chance. Of course, even TFLN is hardly a dent at this point -- and we know that industry projections seem to always get revised by years if not decades..some are willing to "wait as long as it takes" but wise investors are not if that period of time is completely unpredictable...
Mark L - analyst for over 30 years believes there won't be more than one winner. Debatable but he has a good reason: The big wigs aren't going to want to support more than one platform because it costs too much.
They haven't said "big deals" are in the making. "We are working hard to close additional commercial agreements by year end"...an "agreement" could be anything..and the Dec letter didn't say any of the deals they may be announcing were with large companies..."several tier-1 manufacturers have also requested to meet"..."engaging to discuss"... I assumed all along they might announce something small..but re Tier1s all they really have said is that some have expressed interest. That's nowhere close to being in discussions to finalize or even make a commercial agreement.
So, they probably could get off scott free if nothing significant ever happens.
Bottom line: Many give the company the benefit of the doubt.
I think they lost their right to that and continue to do so with every communication they make.
The company is like a spouse who repeatedly cheats on you, or a best friend who stabs you in the back.
They string shareholders along worse than any company I have ever seen, and they do it because they know that because they know shareholders don't have the ability to assess where things stand in relationship the market...so they will lap up every positive statement Dr Lebby makes.
TodMohr , your market “fair value” has gone down below the previous ranges you mentioned. This year alone is almost half over and it’s hardly been above 5 - for about one month of the year so far..
As the company continues to do what they’ve been doing the stock will continue to go down It takes a long time to wind down from the kind of hype that happened in 2021. It’s not over yet. The chart is telling everyone that this continues to be a sour story that the market realizes a little bit more clearly as each month passes by. The “market” is slowly waking up to the reality.
The reality is the “market” didn’t know squat in 2021 and it is still coming to terms with that.
What are you trying to say? That the company has never missed timelines?
That poling was never a problem?
That the industry loves polymers now?
That you really think the stock is cheap despite zach screening proving it is one of the most expensive pre-revenue stocks on the market as it trades 9x higher than its historical market cap?
Something else?
Enlighten everyone please - as you have been doing for the last 12 years.
jimjet218, I just don't see this as pessimist vs optimist. I see potential but intentional obfuscation. And I think the reason for that obfuscation is to keep the doors open because if the truth were known the stock would plummet and LPC may say 'see ya!'. That's not a DNA a problem at all. The credibility is low because they simply can't be trusted to give us reasonable guidance on timelines. Perhaps you think the end justifies the means? It's not really clear what you are saying other than you like progress even if it is slow. Don't you want guidelines that are reasonable? Does that slide from ASM 2021 showing 2018->-2019->2020->2021->Commercialization Polymer Plus not bother you at all?
To me this is just about pursuing the truth..and so far the truth is even if they have progressed, they simple can't be trusted re how much they have progressed.
You say you are going to the ASM to ask your questions about disappointments, that you got worthwhile info about poling last year but that this year you expect no revelations...that's a bit confusing...but I hope you get whatever you are looking for out of the trip.
Lurker probably the only way I’d be shocked is if it’s under $.75 or over $15. Back in February i put forward I think it was 10 predictions for the year. I’ll have to go back to look but I think I was predicting sub $2 by year end
Do tell - what was the wickedness that copilot mentioned?
That’s an interesting analysis. You may have greater psychological insight than what I’m capable of. I was surprised when you said that he is lacking in self-awareness. I hadn’t picked up on that personally.
Your last sentence wouldn’t surprise me one bit. The longs vs me dynamic doesn’t matter to me much anymore. I try to warn the newcomers as a kind gesture, but Im mainly here now to just see if the critical thinking is on point as the final chapters play out.