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Mid,
Truly appreciate your time and efforts and the fact that you so willingly share this info with us.
All the best to you and your family!
Bayfisher
And do do I.
Solid response BB.
Bayfisher
Concerning Mark, I think you and Umbra need to line up for the Kool Aid in Govolstown.
How can you seriously think Mark has brought anything vital to this or any board. All he does is bring inuendo, and undocumented speculation. He bounces in and out at will. As I have said before he is simply a verbose Oilphant.
I am a true believer in ERHC not Markgovols.
Oil-Cowboy,
The way I take it is Mark is not giving his opinion...Mark is telling the board that he is giving us an insider's opinion. That is a big difference.
I know OPUS, nor you nor I bought on Mark's posts. And none of us will sell on his posts either, but someone needs to stand up and tell the board that either he validates his info or he is FOS.
Bay
Listen Mark's post do not really bother me any more or any less than any of the others.
I had several (e-mail only) private conversations with Mark late last year and he seems like a decent enough fellow.
What I do not like is how attuned some of the posters are to Mark's JDZ Alerts. I think that he is hurting some of the posters here by getting their hopes up for no reason. I feel that some of the posters (I will not name names) are desperately hoping ERHC breaks soon. They may feel this is the only way to cure their current finacial woes.
When Mark gives these in-correct signals (whether he is day trading the reaction or not), these posters jump all over it and ultimately are let down. That is why I put my view out their that Mark may really not have the bonafides he claims and if he does he should prove it. I will certainly lay an apology at his feet if that does happen.
I still feel that ERHC is a fantatic play but we may see it next week or we may not see it for 2 more years. The quicker that is understood the less stock available for Day-Traders and the more stable our picture becomes.
That is my 2 cents, I apprecaite you listening.
Bayfisher
OPUS,
I am one of the posters giving Mark "what-for" on the other board.
But I feel that I take Mark to task in a different light. I too think that eventually this stock will deliver what it has promised and will continue holding for another 5 years (if it takes that).
I having been watching Mark pop in and out of the JDZ board for the last 24 months. He comes in and says his sources say that he cannot validate his evidence by giving names but big things are about to happen and we see our price elevate 8 to 12%. A MM could make decent money using this tactic. Mark always says all of his contacts are the same ones we could all call ourselves. If that is true and they are so openly public he should have no reason not to give up a bit more detail just to help validate their bonefides. But he doesn't and it never happens.
Last November mark was telling evryone that he would have drilling results any day that it was about to be announced and it looked sooo goood. But it didn't and they still haven't announced.
Can you help me find one bit of information that Mark has brought to the table that really was new and can be verified? I cant.
I know we all hope Mark is correct and that he really does have all this inside knowledge because we all really want to believe and see this stock lift off soon, but a snake oil peddler is still just a snake oil peddler.
I know that eventually this information will come out and we will finally see if ERHC is what we all originally believed it could be, but that will not happen until the leaders at the highest ranks of these companies have done everything they can to get their companies as well positioned as is possible. And that my friend is beyond the socalled Mark GoVols contacts.
Just my thoughts.
Bayfisher
SSC,
Generally I do not see eye to eye with you but I completely agree with your last post.
In the past I have been denigrated by the board because I have questioned Mark's (JDZ UPDATE!) reports and have publicly asked for any type of realistic validation of these so called updates.
The primary poster's [I call them the PP's] will rail at you if you do anything to knock the rosy glow off of everyone's cheeks when Mark comes out and prognosticates that we will all be rich by the weekend.
He does no one a true service. In may ways he is only a more verbose Oilphant.
Where I do not agree with you is in what I believe is actually happening. I am in the group that feels that the prolonged silence can only mean that we have a significant field(s) in the JDZ and until the principal owners can determine how, who, and how much...... no information will be released. While I feel this alone can explain the lack of information being released on the well test results(if the results are bad, and the Board Members of principal companies are aware of it they would have SEC issues for not relasing that info over a year-end or for that matter quarterly period, as it could have a significant financial affect). There are some problems with this theory. If true, I cannot understand how the principal companies have kept the news from leaking out. If there were leaks we would see the price start to migrate North with little or no retraction.
If anyone can expound on how they think the information is being kept so tight to the vest I would appreciate it.
For whatever it is worth this is how I see it.
bayfisher
Gasman,
Unfortunately I have no unknown resources either.
But like you I believe that the longer we wait to receive news then the probability that the news is favorable rises.
It defies everything I know about this industry to assume that both exploration companies would wait this long to release information that discloses little or non-profitable hydrocarbon horizon in the zones they drilled.
I can only fathom that the players(percentage owners) are putting together a comprehensive strategy for extracting the reserves and as much value as possible.
What no one has mentioned is what price the current percentage owners are going to pay to bring TOTAL into the mix. Effectively what I mean is, we have heard that we are dealing with enormous pressures in the reservoir as well as enormous external pressures from being over 5,000 feet below the surface. It may be a necessity to bring in a company like Total with their experience to produce these fields. If Total is going to buy their way in they may want a discount to bring their expertise to the table. ERHC may be the obvious target for Total to buy-out to get their foot in the door but SEO will probably expect the other 'Rights Owners’ to subsidize this move.
If I am anywhere near correct then you can see that a lot of behind the scenes negotiations will have to go on before the, "New JDZ Consortium" can be put together and all findings released.
Again these are just my musings so take it for what it is worth.
Bay
Got it, I only had last Fridays SI
Thanks,
Bay
Not sure what you are seeing, What I see from last Friday is:
20100319|ERHE|74,200
PS: SHort selling of ERHE is almost non-existent since late last week? Do they know something?
Ryg,
You are way off center. CNOOC just cut a deal in South America (3/15/2010) where they bought proven reserves for $10/Bbl and were very pleased that they did not have to pay $20/Bbl. Go Google CNOOC and South America and you will quickly find many articles confirming this.
At $3.50/share the total JDZ zones that ERHC has an interest in would have to contain less than 1.5 billion barrels of oil and oil equivalents and zones 4 & 11 of the EEZ would have to contain zero economically recoverable oil and oil equivalents.
Frankly if all they found and could prove up was 1.5 Billion barrels they probably would forego the risk.
That is why I do not understand when posters here post numbers like $2.50 or even $3.50/share for a buy-out number.
Essentially for the consortium to take the risk and drill, develop and produce these zones they would have to have determined that there are at least 3 to 4 billion recoverable barrels of oil and oil equivalents. If they find less than 2 billion they may just wait.
Let's say the number is 4 billion barrels recoverable in zones 2, 3& 4 then that alone would lead to a share price above $9/share.
What really makes this interesting is the $10/Bbl that CNOOC paid for recoverable reserves in South America last week does not include a full carry, Our does.
That is why (as I see it) we either have a share price above $9/share on a buy-out or we have none at all. Anything less means the field just does not contain enough hydrocarbons to make it economical.
Bayfisher
In today's market CNOOC just one week ago paid $10/per proven barrel and that was considered cheap in today's market for oil properties.
SEE BELOW:
[color=red]
CNOOC gets LatAm foothold with $3.1 bln Argentina deal
REUTERS — 03/15/10
* Deal will give CNOOC an entry into Latin America
* Will help CNOOC meet growth targets
* Deal expected to close as Bridas is a private firm
* CNOOC shares hit 2-mth high
By Sui-Lee Wee
With the purchase of a stake in Argentina's Bridas Holdings gives it a foothold in reserve-rich Latin America and should ease investor worries about its aggressive output targets.
"The deal is attractive for CNOOC in the sense that it's going to be strongly accretive in terms of reserves and adds to production in the near term," said Neil Beveridge, senior oil analyst at Sanford Bernstein.
"It takes them into South America in a material way."
The $3.1 billion deal, CNOOC's biggest since 2006, highlights China's hunger for energy resources to feed the world's fastest-growing major economy.
China's oil and gas companies, tasked by the government with securing supplies, have announced roughly $18.8 billion in outbound acquisitions this year, according to Thomson Reuters data.
Analysts say the deal by China's top offshore oil producer and the smallest of China's triumvirate of energy firms including PetroChina and Sinopec Corp , shows CNOOC's drive for reserves as it is investing in ageing fields in Argentina, Bolivia and Chile.
CNOOC has adopted a 21-28 percent annual growth target this year, higher than the annual growth targets for international oil majors BP Plc and Royal Dutch Shell, which have scaled back targets amid falling oil prices.
The acquisition will raise CNOOC's proven reserves by 318 million barrels of oil equivalent (boe) and average daily output by 46,000 boe, the company's president Yang Hua said on a media teleconference on Monday.
"In terms of (being) high value-enhancing, that's more of a question mark. It's a relatively low-margin business given the tax regime in Argentina," Sanford Bernstein's Beveridge said.
Argentina has low domestic gas prices -- at around $2 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) -- and an export levy on crude oil, which caps the crude price realisation at around $40 per barrel, CLSA analyst David Hewitt wrote in a note, making the deal less attractive in terms of margins.
Argentina's proven oil and natural gas reserves fell 9 percent and 39 percent, respectively, between 2001-08, and exports have plunged.
At face value, the deal seems cheap -- CNOOC will pay about $10 per barrel of reserves -- compared with deals that were priced at $20 per barrel in the past, said David Johnson, an analyst at Royal Bank of Scotland.
The transaction is the latest announced by a company criticised for sitting on too much cash for too long. [ID:nTOE617038]
Last week, Tullow Oil said it had agreed to a framework deal with CNOOC and French oil major Total for the companies to become equal partners in three Ugandan oil blocks. [ID:nLDE629051]
CNOOC shares rose nearly 1 percent early on Monday to their highest since Jan. 12, before easing to finish down 0.5 percent in a weaker overall market .
LIKELY TO CLOSE
Analysts say CNOOC's deal with Bridas Energy should be completed in the first half of this year, helped by Bridas' status as a private company, owned by the family of Argentine tycoon Carlos Bulgheroni, and does not need multiple shareholder approval.
"The 50-50 partnership seems to be the mechanism by which Chinese companies are going global to mitigate government concerns about Chinese companies taking control of resources," Beveridge said.
Chinese oil companies are already being hemmed in by recent consolidation that has limited the number of assets on the global market and by protectionism in Western countries.
Such concerns derailed CNOOC's$18.5 billion bid for Unocal in the United States in 2005, and CNOOC's Yang said the joint venture deal with Bridas is in line with its strategy of seeking cooperation, not outright acquisitions.
In a separate deal, Australia'sArrow Energy is set to reject a $3 billion joint bid from Shell and PetroChinabecause the offer price is too low. [ID:nSGE62D034]
Analysts say the Bridas deal could trigger a wave of investments from CNOOC , which has been noticeably absent from overseas M&A since it paid $2.7 billion for a stake in Total's African Akpo field in 2006.
Latin America has been on the radar of China's acquisitive energy firms for years, and the Bridas deal comes after CNOOC's failed attempt to buy into Argentine energy company, YPF , a unit of Spain'sRepsol-YPF.
"If you look to the future, Latin America is an area where there's a lot of exploration activity," said Johnson. "This deal gives them an entry into a market where the company has no current interest."
JPMorgan and Beijing-based Hopu Investments, run by influential China dealmaker Fang Fenglei, are advisers for the deal, banking sources said[/color]
Thanks Manuel,
At 13.45/Bbl for proven reserves even 5 billion barrels in Zones 2,3 & 4, Would give ERHC a buyout number of $11.4 billion. And that is for Zones 2, 3 & 4 alone.
Oil,
I think the time is close, probably as BB thinks within the next 6 weeks.
I also think that a buy out price will probably be between 10 and 20 Billion dollars based on the info I have seen.
It all comes down to how much they found in the 5 different formations they drilled and how much they can extrapolate is in the JDZ zones 2, 3, & 4 based on those numbers (this goes a long way in explaining why it has taken so long and why no information has come out). There could be significant negotiations on how to extrapolate the mount of oil in Zones 2, 3 & 4 and how to value those extrapolations and if that is the case then 5 months doesn't sound so long ..does it?
I posted the possibilty of a 20 Billion dollar buy-out (not probability) because I feel the bashers had gotten into to many people's head and while remote, a 20 billion dollar price is certainly not out of the realm of possibility. In my opinion the greatest probability is a buyout price for everything (JDZ & EEZ) at around $13 to $16 Billion. Again I base this on the majors stressing the risk and difficulty of drilling this area and trying to risk-drive the price down.
One final thought a lot of posters are posting numbers like $2 to $3/share for a buyout number.
If you reverse-polish the numbers a $3/share price would drive you to a Reserve total of only 1.5 billion barrels in all of the JDZ (zones 2, 3 & 4) as well as a zero value for any potential holdings in the EEZ. That makes no sense. At 1.5 Billion I feel that the majors will not attemp the project.
Again in my opinion, either the JDZ project is deemed erstwhile (containing at least 5 Billion barrels of oil and oil equivalents in the JDZ alone) and if so the stock price would have to be at least $10/share.
Ergo at least $10/share for ERHC or nothing.
In my very humble opinion.
Mike,
As will I.
Bay!
Mike,
While I appreciate your Post, your 5 to 10 years assumes that ERHC will keep these assets until production. That may very well be true. My assumption is based on ERHC selling out of these assets. I suspect that the inclination would be to sell and allow the majors to do thier thing.
Bay
Mike,
Mill also made an error when he valued proven reserve barrels at $6.00 a share. We were at $5/barrel for proven when oil was priced at $45 barrel. In today’s market, depending on the cost to develop and produce prices can range from a low of $8 to a high of $10.00 barrel.
I used a number of $8.50/ barrel and not the lowest number of $8.00/barrel primarily because ERHC has no upfront cost to develop so the entity that purchases ERHC's reserves has no large initial capital outlay.
Additionally, the original NSAI estimates were that the JDZ contains at least 14.4 Billion barrels of Oil and Oil equivalents.
My number of 8 Billion barrels of oil or oil equivalents was driven on the fact that zones 2, 3 & 4 contained at least 8 billion of those barrels (55%) as they contain most of the meandering channel that stretches through the JDZ, additionally they have drawn the most interest from the companies that are drilling in the JDZ. Also on average ERHC only has 17% of those three zones.
The numbers above come up to a value of 11.5 Billion dollars for ERHC's share of the JDZ. I put a value of 8.5 Billion dollars on ERHC's EEZ zones 4 & 11 due to the interest in Presalt oil as well as the Cretaceous sources that are driving the JDZ are also conatined with in the EEZ and the EEZ has a significant number of cretaceous and tertiary fan systems as does the JDZ.
Essentially these are my numbers and it is my right to post them. I am not a pumper; I do not have any sources other than my 35 years experience in the oil field (both North Slope and Caspian Sea). Estimates are that the GOG has over half of Africa's oil reserves, if you don't believe me Google "Gulf of Guinea Regional Geology" Finally, having grown up in West Texas literally on top of Block 35, it is well know that dusters were never a secret but when a company finds something significant they always hold their cards close. I have never ever seen this much secrecy surround a drilling project, and I have been involved in many.
To sum up, I have no sources just my own experience both working for many years on a rig floor and as a Director of Finance for a major energy company. The numbers I posted are what I believe could happen. Do I know it for sure, no I do not. But as I stated earlier it is not out of the realm of possibility and a buyout price of up to $20/billion for ERHC lock stock and barrel is within the range of possible (in my opinion and based on my experience).
By the way I told everyone the bashers would pounce. And the insidious way they do it is to renounce my numbers and replace them with numbers that while positive are low enough that it would generate very little interest in ERHE.OB as a stock.
Come on people ask yourself, if this stock is so rotten why do all the posters (that bash) waste their time here. Why aren't they out on some other board looking for the next Yahoo or Google?
EVERYTHING I have stated above are my thoughts and mine alone, value them as you will.
Bayfisher
The 27.75 was my number and that is based on a 20 billion dollar buy-out. If SEO does not sell then all bets are off.
I think that for SEO to secure the protection he (and his family and friends) need, plus be able to secure his role in the future of energy development in the GOG, Sao Tome and Nigeria he will be looking for 10 Billion (his share). Can he get it....no one knows except the Chinese at this juncture.
Ultimately if he does get a 20 billion dollar number I think it would have to include all of ERHC including both JDZ and EEZ.
One final thought, to achieve the $27.75/share the Chinese would have to know that the JDZ (Blocks 2, 3 & 4) contain at least 8 billion barrels of oil or oil equivalents (oil, gas & gas condensate) and the EEZ blocks 4 & 11 would have to have the potential to contain at least another 1 billion barrels of oil equivalents. While at this juncture none of us knows, these numbers certainly do not seem out of the range of possibilities.
BTW: for those who want to check my math I placed an $8.50 Bbl value for known reserves.
And for those of you that have been with this stock as long as I have now (5 years) watch and see what the bashers post when they see my numbers. My views fly in the face of their negativity.
JMO
Bayfisher
Looking at the first 5 minutes of trading (probably overnight trades sitting at the gate) but Buys were 54k to 8k sells at the ask.
Strong buying very early,lets hope it predicates solid news.
Bay
Thanks Mike.
She is right that we know nothing about how much is there, but the share price economics based on forecasted production reserves is correct.
Unbra are you referring to nick as in stealing?
A 5 billion dollar buyout of ERHC would put total recoverable reserves in Blocks 2,3 & 4 at 3.5 billion barrels of Oil & Oil equivalents and no oil expectency in zones 4 & 11 in the EEZ.
That is why I have always felt that Mark's often quoted sell price of $3.50 to $4.00 per share was too low.
Still feel that the bottom price SEO would accept would be $10/share for ERHC's JDZ rights and EEZ would be left intact to be sold at a later date (after initial rounds of Geophysics and initial drilling).
By the way a $10/share would be equivalent to (approx) 5 billion barrels of oil and oil equivalents discovered in Blocks 2, 3 & 4 of the JDZ.
So until we start hearing flow test results and reservoir info, who knows.
I hate to admit it but he did call it.
"Big news that does not involve ERHC, I would hate to be short ERHC"!
to make a mountain out of what molehill?
Prices are going through above the bid.
Looks like not even the MM's can slow down the run.
Starting to look very tangible.
Would be great if it was Texaco (if indeed the phant is correct), that would make the remaining 2/3's shares of ERHC very coveted by China.
But this is all probably just aother of Oilphants silly prognostications
EC,
It probably is, but as the price get higher and higher shares will get more scarce. It gets to a point that the buying entity will not want to put too much jaz on the stock price as they want everyone to see what a great deal it is for them to buy the stock at the price they propose. Most of it is all about perception.
Everything hinges on tomorrows volume, even at 2.5 million shares we have still only only traded less than one-third of one percent of the shares. And maybe less than 2% of the shares avaialable.
Everyone,
i think what Mark is implyin here is that on the open market all shares abvailable will be bought up unitl the price is above $1.00/share. Could be SEO, SEO friends, could be SINOPEC.
After the price top a dollar then the buyout will unfold.
Mike,
I do not agree with you, but will let it go.
I hope in the future you will re-consider before you delete a post just because you can.
How can it be off topic when I am reflecting on what is going on on the ERHE board. Indicating that you guys are in force validates that there is something different going on.
Do you terminate people when they talk about the weather, Crappy fishing, hunting...?
No you don't.
You seem to be slap happy today and that is a shame because except for your somewhat limited reservoir knowledge I respect your posts.
Wait a minute Yankee.
I sent in a post that said, "Moderators are in full force today", and you terminated that.
Come on Dude a little bit enthralled with your power?
That is just plain silly.
The moderators are out of control again on the other board.
I am beginning to think that they are MM minions as well.
What they are doing this morning makes no sense.
$.04/share is essentially just valuing cash on hand.
That is one of the more purile and ludicris statements to ome out yet.
They must be hiring jr high drop outs for bashers these days.
Sneak,
That price would give ERHC about 350MM barrels at a reserve price of $7.55/Bbl. IMO that is low for know reserves. At a known resrve price of $8.50/Bbl that would give ERHC about 311 million barrels or only about 1.83 Billion Barrels of oil or oil equivalents (includes gas and gas condensate) for zones 2,3,4 & 5.
Bayfisher
Does it seem to everyone on this board that there is a concerted effort to do everything possible to push the stock price down at this specific time.
Lets reflect:
1) Very funny trading patterns where the bids do not match the asks, strange volume levels, trades begin to look like the day-traders are buying in and out in a concerted effort to drive price down.
2) Absolutely no knews from any source, even Mark Govols has stopped posting (of course this could be he still can's get over Kiffen leaving). No Operator news, not even news letting the public know when results would be forthcoming.
3) Even SEO seems absent from all proceedings at this time. If he was worried about the price at all he could simply step in and buy a couple of hundred thousand shares on successive days and that alone would create a substantial run up from our current price. The cost to SEO would be insignificant given his resources.
4) Even Ruf who most of us feel has been a solid poster, posts a message stating that the Melanza #1 is a duster. The post looks like it is from a news app and states percentages and has a very professional look. But I have gone out and tried to bring up that post and have found nothing in the WWW that comes close. If it was in print i would have found it and the article that Ruf posted looked like it was in print.
So what is going on, is this just the last final thrust to drive down the price and get rid of all shrinking violets before the news comes?
I have my opinion but want to hear some of the others before I lay mine out.
If anyone out there has a definitive idea about why ERHC is at it current state please post.
I don't agree, but the truth is none of know what motivate SEO or where he is financially
Why would the share price dropping cause SEO to be pressured to sell?
It seems to look like they(the MM's) are determining how well they can control the price and are just practicing that control.
One would think it has to be alligned to some sort of a perceived run-up and they are just prepping so they can optimize their gain strategy during such an event?
WTHDIK
Bay