Mike,
Mill also made an error when he valued proven reserve barrels at $6.00 a share. We were at $5/barrel for proven when oil was priced at $45 barrel. In today’s market, depending on the cost to develop and produce prices can range from a low of $8 to a high of $10.00 barrel.
I used a number of $8.50/ barrel and not the lowest number of $8.00/barrel primarily because ERHC has no upfront cost to develop so the entity that purchases ERHC's reserves has no large initial capital outlay.
Additionally, the original NSAI estimates were that the JDZ contains at least 14.4 Billion barrels of Oil and Oil equivalents.
My number of 8 Billion barrels of oil or oil equivalents was driven on the fact that zones 2, 3 & 4 contained at least 8 billion of those barrels (55%) as they contain most of the meandering channel that stretches through the JDZ, additionally they have drawn the most interest from the companies that are drilling in the JDZ. Also on average ERHC only has 17% of those three zones.
The numbers above come up to a value of 11.5 Billion dollars for ERHC's share of the JDZ. I put a value of 8.5 Billion dollars on ERHC's EEZ zones 4 & 11 due to the interest in Presalt oil as well as the Cretaceous sources that are driving the JDZ are also conatined with in the EEZ and the EEZ has a significant number of cretaceous and tertiary fan systems as does the JDZ.
Essentially these are my numbers and it is my right to post them. I am not a pumper; I do not have any sources other than my 35 years experience in the oil field (both North Slope and Caspian Sea). Estimates are that the GOG has over half of Africa's oil reserves, if you don't believe me Google "Gulf of Guinea Regional Geology" Finally, having grown up in West Texas literally on top of Block 35, it is well know that dusters were never a secret but when a company finds something significant they always hold their cards close. I have never ever seen this much secrecy surround a drilling project, and I have been involved in many.
To sum up, I have no sources just my own experience both working for many years on a rig floor and as a Director of Finance for a major energy company. The numbers I posted are what I believe could happen. Do I know it for sure, no I do not. But as I stated earlier it is not out of the realm of possibility and a buyout price of up to $20/billion for ERHC lock stock and barrel is within the range of possible (in my opinion and based on my experience).
By the way I told everyone the bashers would pounce. And the insidious way they do it is to renounce my numbers and replace them with numbers that while positive are low enough that it would generate very little interest in ERHE.OB as a stock.
Come on people ask yourself, if this stock is so rotten why do all the posters (that bash) waste their time here. Why aren't they out on some other board looking for the next Yahoo or Google?
EVERYTHING I have stated above are my thoughts and mine alone, value them as you will.
Bayfisher
