Oil,
I think the time is close, probably as BB thinks within the next 6 weeks.
I also think that a buy out price will probably be between 10 and 20 Billion dollars based on the info I have seen.
It all comes down to how much they found in the 5 different formations they drilled and how much they can extrapolate is in the JDZ zones 2, 3, & 4 based on those numbers (this goes a long way in explaining why it has taken so long and why no information has come out). There could be significant negotiations on how to extrapolate the mount of oil in Zones 2, 3 & 4 and how to value those extrapolations and if that is the case then 5 months doesn't sound so long ..does it?
I posted the possibilty of a 20 Billion dollar buy-out (not probability) because I feel the bashers had gotten into to many people's head and while remote, a 20 billion dollar price is certainly not out of the realm of possibility. In my opinion the greatest probability is a buyout price for everything (JDZ & EEZ) at around $13 to $16 Billion. Again I base this on the majors stressing the risk and difficulty of drilling this area and trying to risk-drive the price down.
One final thought a lot of posters are posting numbers like $2 to $3/share for a buyout number.
If you reverse-polish the numbers a $3/share price would drive you to a Reserve total of only 1.5 billion barrels in all of the JDZ (zones 2, 3 & 4) as well as a zero value for any potential holdings in the EEZ. That makes no sense. At 1.5 Billion I feel that the majors will not attemp the project.
Again in my opinion, either the JDZ project is deemed erstwhile (containing at least 5 Billion barrels of oil and oil equivalents in the JDZ alone) and if so the stock price would have to be at least $10/share.
Ergo at least $10/share for ERHC or nothing.
In my very humble opinion.
