I think you may be right. I think I may have turned the packages list at the end of the big pdf into an order. Not positive though because I know I wasn’t the only one talking like there was an order.

The original 24.5 document came along side an order for what we estimated was 6-8 mill of actual equipment. Is that presumably just a day or two away now that this is signed?

There's the 8 Million appx. single source deal they bid on for customs & border patrol.

Also, Bob is going back on that story trading platform this week. He loves those guys for some reason. I think SharpChi is somehow affiliated with them via Mark Gomes maybe? Hopefully he is OK and he didn't go all in OTM calls on this report or something :(

SharpChi calling 9M and 0.20 EPS on Twitter

That would be stellar.

Makes those lotto 10s look tempting.
I've rolled all my aug to nov except for a few remaining Aug 5s and 20 Aug 7.5s it was almost free to do so thankfully.

Anyway, if revenue were to only come in around my base case/floor of 4.5M AND they were tight lipped Q&A should ask questions like.

Is 2nd shift doubling capacity from before or if not how much has your ability increased by roughly?

For the new 2nd shift, was it operational throughout the Q and if not when did it start?

Is product from 2nd shift beginning to show up in revenue and/or backlog?

We saw an inspector position listed as temporary. None of the other positions were listed as temporary so do you see this 2nd shift being necessary to meet demand going forward for the forseeable future.

There were no options that morning either.

Ferris needs to be grilled in q&a about 2nd shift if pr is light on details. Will post ideas later

Very broad strokes they had a position up for an installer in late Jan and in April. Maybe these were the same job, and maybe a replacement person rather than additions, but if not then you'd think installations would have to be at least similar to Q1. Plus they have to start working through that backlog sometime, so I'm going to say for revenue the base should be something similar to Q1. Say 4.5M. Earnings could be trickier if those new hires all started hitting payroll but potentially their revenue hasn't ramped yet so put that a little lower than Q1 say 500k

WRAP keeps trying with VR

https://seekingalpha.com/pr/18417936-wrap-announces-new-vr-training-platform-powered-amazon-web-services

I can't wait until our Market Cap is higher than theirs.

You jinxed it. CFO departing.
Or maybe you gave me time to read those articles and get it without it running.

I read that temp posting as bullish because it means this can no longer be a case of hurry up and wait as some had speculated where the gov. wanted to make sure that everything was in place before hitting go or something like that. You're not hiring this position if stuff isn't ready to start going out the door, and shipped = recognized rev regardless of any backlog nonsense.

WOW thanks for pointing that one out, I missed it and it looks like it's already gone from their site. I have a big position and wasn't adding anything because, since I'm using a lot of options, I didn't want to get caught on the wrong side of not if but when. Assuming that position is down because it's filled, and they didn't just pull it down because timeline changed, then basically that role is starting and finishing right in Q3 so that is the big one. November 7.50s and 10s are going to get a real hard look from me next week.

Re Seeking Alpha, I had a lot of garbage microcap analysis articles back in the day, so I guess I'm glad I started early. Now I guess I get credit for all that junk if I wanted to post again. I did one in the last year and they only critiqued by making me go back and cite some data.

If it makes you feel any better there was a guy I know of who was writing articles on a company. At some point S/A banished him to the instablog because i think they thought he was doing too much cheerleading or something. That guy eventually fought his way from shareholder to board memmber to CEO. And the company's about 500M market cap so not too tiny.

It was under a psuedonym can't reveal the actual company.

Nice write up SharpChi on SeekingAlpha, but why not go through the vetting process to get it more widely distributed? Sometimes people come out of the woodwork. I've had a random managers contacting me about potentially taking activist positions in companies I've written about on there. Plus you could have got the extra $50 or whatever.

BTW I wrote the VTSI top golf and guns article on SA from way back which... apparently was not a correct bull case, but hey it put this on my radar and it's paying off now.

nice! this guy in a chatroom I'm in had been relentlessly annoying about it since the very beginning and none of us listened until it was up around 6 and the IV had gotten pumped, but 6-9 in a week is still pretty good.

Not sure what it would mean here, but apparently they've got Sabby cornered in a short on ATOS that has been cooking, moving from 5 - 8 in the last five days, but has potential to go full nuclear in the next few weeks. the open interest on July options is totally insane.

I guess we'd have to know if he's net short, net long, or totally neutral.

That's all above my pay grade.

99% This will be a nothingburger conference presentation, but always have that 1% hope. Maybe someone will slip him up if he leaves enough time for questions and we'll learn something new.

If 7.4M Q1 bookings included nothing, not even the tip of the iceberg of any big contract, then it puts the company at a higher baseline in terms of how they're performing in their more day to day operations. Higher floor.

I had this thought originally because I assumed based on their definition of bookings that they'd have to put the whole thing on there at once. Or, maybe not the whole thing if it's an IDIQ for like 50M but I assume in the contract scenario we're imagining they wouldn't be putting on 2M at a time. In other words, it will be obvious when it hits bookings even if they can't disclose anything else about it.

Regarding the showing up materially in the backlog quote, is there any chance that that meant

showing up in the backlog... as of today May 17th

vs.

showing up in the backlog on the Q1 10Q?

Also, as Tim points out CNC was part of the 2nd shift hires and that's specifically mentioned as tied to the kits on Virtra's website.

What questions would you have asked if allowed?

I was interested in how he said some of the military deal was already showing up in the backlog and what that meant in terms of inevitability of a large contract. Is it done and we are just waiting on disclosure?

I was also interested in this jump in margins that allowed for the good EPS on the underwhelming sales. Is that something we can expect to continue.

Previously, he promised that they would start breaking out the STEP figures in revenue/backlog. When's that going to happen? And since it hasn't happened yet is it safe to assume that this 100% retention he's crowing about it based on like 5 sims or something?

He was also weirdly proud about the statement on how he thought the company could continue to achieve double digit growth. Just barely achieving double digit growth really isn't very good.

Finally his direct addressing of headcount/second shift was interesting. Maybe he does read everything here and on twitter where I was harping about that line of questioning to figure out what was going on with potential big contracts.

Overall I do not thing the quarter/call were that bad. Thanks to the EPS they were maybe a 4 out of 10. We'll trade lower for fast money guys dumping to move elsewhere but I would be surprised if we got too far under 5.

I actually wonder if the thing about not knowing to tier talent is literally true.

It's one thing to have a guy who is working hard and maintains good relationships, but there are sales geniuses the way there are artistic geniuses. I have a good friend who is one, but he's the only person like that I've ever met.

We ran track together in college, then he moved to Spain and talked his way into the training facility for the Spanish national team and became the pace setter for their professional women. He is not Spanish or even European by the way. He then met the former CEO of BBVA there somehow after pacing him through a marathon and is probably going to get financial support from him to back his startup.

I think his company's product isn't even that great but they survive on him making calls and as he described it, 'sometimes I can tell that I'm just saying nothing and they're still slowly being convinced to sign a deal with us'

It's wild.

Maybe if you've never seen that you don't understand the difference between your guys and top guys

Predictions because why not.
6M rev
8 cents EPS
(both just above the high end of estimates)
reference to a military contract using an adjective like 'large' but also an adjective like 'sensitive' so no real numbers given.
Share Price 4PM today over 5.60
Share Price tomorrow appx 6.25

I have never held more shares in a company than I do of VTSI at this moment. If you see a fat pitch, you have to swing.

I think this is likely correct too. I wish it were Monday, but I have options like 10% May 80% Aug 10% Nov (only the May are out of the money). Gave up the chance for mega leverage for peace of mind. I just kept imagining Ferris saying Q1 would have been higher but we made some deliveries right at the end of the year that put them in Q4.

Options availability probably also helping interest from the fast money crowd.

Thanks, this is why made sure to post it here first before I did anything outrageous. Does the NTE value on these contracts really mean much?

Here are the big ticket items in this:
2 V100LE Fixed
2 V100LE Portable
1 180LE
1 180LE 4k
1 300LE
1 300LE 4k
1 Pro5 Simulator
1 Pro5 Simulator 5k

Nice but definitely not the big one we are looking for. With all the little add ons in addition to the simulators I would guess this is like 5-6M maybe?

New gov contract on SAM? Is this what we're looking for? I'm just going through the PDF now but I don't have a ton of experience reading the original docs. Has maximum value of 24.5M

https://beta.sam.gov/opp/2b8c333f70894f769a5bf2bacdc784d2/view

I also very much appreciate Ardly's input.

I look at this quote though and read 'our current work' sounding like something was already done.

Due to the sensitive nature of some of our current work, we're constrained in what we can disclose at this time, but we hope to provide more details on the strategy and our progress later in the year.

Also, five is too small because it goes against his quote in the storytrading interview about just hiring temps.

I do kind of feel like this though. Thankfully I mostly haven't invested like that save for 50 May 7.5s for 9 cents each just incase:

Why hire an entire second shifts worth of people then? It feels like there’s only one answer to all the puzzle pieces.

I am going to tweet at the analysts on past calls to try to pursue a line of questioning like:

What was headcount at the end of Q

OK, and can you update that as of today midway through Q2

OK, and in a past interview you said you wouldn't necessarily increase personnel in response to a large contract, you could just hire temps. This has worked for large contracts in excess of $5 million, so is it safe to infer that these new hires are made to service an opportunity that's significantly larger than that?


-----------
Also, isn't the idea that these drop in recoil kits would be part of the hololens VR deal that Microsoft got?

Assuming the big gov contract theory were true...

What would the timeline for VTSI having to make that disclosure look like?As soon as they started recognizing revenue? Also, would this have to show up in their backlog or would something about it being subcontracted preclude that.

Whatever they've been hiring all these new people for is going to have to start showing up at some point.

Several new jobs posted recently. Includes both physical production and content production.

Haha you're proving my thesis there. I would never buy those options either, they seem horrible compared to the 2.50s in Aug. I meant they looked good if you were the seller of them. If shares merely flatlined now to Nov that's appx a 30% return (assuming you're selling covered calls and not naked like a maniac)Even with a decline, you're still up unless somehow we're trading in the low 3s.

Nice. The open interest on that one has been creeping up. It wouldn't be my style but the Nov 5 calls have a small bid at 1.65. If you wanted to buy/write.

I was thinking about what impact options in general could have if there is another crazy spike day. I'd assume they'd be gasoline on the fire. The YOLO boys from WallStreetBets don't even know shares exist, but it would only work if spreads tightened up.

The August 2.50 strike calls seem like a deal. Double your leverage if you get them for 2.50 (i just did) and you still get two quarters of reporting before they expire.

They release the videos in like a week I think.

just surpassed my alltime high share count and will keep going if it keeps dropping. Outrageous risk/reward. Heck, if they just took the money and buried it in a hole in the desert you're still looking at downside of what 3.50 using pre-raise earnings estimates, post-raise shares outstanding, and 20 P/E?

VTSI got options today

Q1 last year we entered with a 9.6M backlog and had at least two weeks heavily impacted by COVID restrictions. Loss was 5 cents per share.

We enter Q1 this year with 14.6M backlog and will have had little to no COVID installation issues. But the average of the three analyst estimates is a loss of 1 cent per share? Am I crazy or is that a laughably low figure? Even if we pulled a bunch forward to meet Ferris's increase revenue every year goals it still feels low.

Trying to figure out why not to just keep averaging down into a, for me, monster position. This seems like one of the best possible risk reward plays on the market here. Downside to 4 maybe mid/low 3s if the market really eats it, upside to 10-12 just on blocking and tackling with a bonus if there's a transformational military deal?

You're missing what people are saying here. Im not one of them but I'm writing this narrative so someone can correct me if I'm missing something.

The idea is, the offering was being shopped on the street prior to the big run up. So, when the big run up happened, people in the know were able to go, wow free money. We can short here and then participate in the offering to cover our shares rather than actually having to cover on the open market.

So, they shorted at 9 and covered at 6 risk free.

Old IDIQ expired this week

It had started in 2016. Does anyone familiar with those sorts of gov contracts know whether there's normally a new one signed right away ?