On the q&a Alanna clarified that the margins were the result of a perfect storm of factors breaking in their favor and they’d return to 60s soon or slightly lower if needed to grown the headset business. The good profitability this Q was lucky.

I think there will be a wall of buyers somewhere in the 5s of which I would be one

Yeah the revenue line here has the potential to be pretty rough, but if they made the bookings and continued to make them to mid Q3 then we're fine. As long as we're not simply 'hoping' for some military deals to come in pre fiscal year end.

I am curious about the initial word on headsets as well as what sort of analytics they can monetize as mentioned in the PR on the latest hire.

The timing of the military orders coming back online due to the continuing resolution log jam was entirely out of their control. That is why there is a significant chance, as Givens discussed last call, that we get one more stinker. I only bought back ~10% of my trading shares for this reason. The coast is not yet clear.

That said, if numbers are bad but he can talk about deals being closed subsequent to 6/30 on the call then we should be fine.

Dipped the toe back in to begin building the trading portion of the position again. Got filled for a single Aug $5c at 2.80 I am still pretty worried about Q2 though so will be cautious even at this level.
November strikes are so tricky because it is not certain you'll get the second earnings report or not with the 11/15 expiry.
And FWIW the grant I was tracking that got messed up by continuing resolution has been paid to the prime now so the payments are flowing.

Getting somewhat close to rebuying some but the other part of me says why go before q2. My reference point is the big dod grant I worked with at my job is still kind of backlogged.

I don't think this would be the case. Backlog is accumulated bookings, bookings are basically signed deals. My experience in the university dept I work at, which has a lot of DoD grants, was that the continuing resolution delayed processes entirely. In other words, it was not as though deals were progressing to the point of payment, freezing, and then finishing when the CR was resolved. The entire process stopped, and things were/are backed up months. (this is why I said I was worried in my pre-earnings post and why I'm dumb for not hedging barely at all) So up until March 23rd no movement would have been happening on deals for months. I'd expect some (but not all) of the delayed bookings to be in Q2 and then Q3 to be caught up. When the revenue catches up would be trickier.


I have a grant that was supposed to have a 1/1 start date that not only isn't awarded but that they've also said they're going to pull the start date forward to approximately the award date. There is a professor who has had a post doc working since Jan who is not happy about this.

Next Q likely still impacted by continuing resolution he said on the call which is what really killed AH. At least 2025 will have easy comps. I was never going to sell my shares but was trying to sell off my calls throughout the week and kept just missing my limit. That hurts since it’s going to be a couple grand less from trying to save a couple hundred.

I am worried about the gov continuing resolution which maybe pushed Q1 to Q2. The flip side is that some Q4 might have ended up in Q1. That sort of stuff is probably why the two coverage analysts diverge by 12 cents for Q1 while also only diverging 12 cents for the whole year.
I think if we have a positive share price reaction coming out of this it will be on narrative more than numbers.
What I most want confirmed is that prototype project and 3m kickoff payment project are not the same project.

The technology to do that even a few years ago would have been tough, but now it's everywhere and it wouldn't even be that expensive to implement so presumably they're doing it on some level already as you suggest. Just need speech recognition on top of some sort of LLM optimized for distressed/agitated/unwell person. You could let it loose to say literally anything as the tech exists to make believable mouth movements for generated speech. Then, whatever the latest psych studies show as de-escalatory language is more likely to generate best outcome (maybe even with scores for volume/tone etc), but with some randomization element since sometimes you can say all the right things and the person still shoots.

Also, in some of the demos I had watched before there is a lag between the person in the scenario acting and the sim responding. Presumably this is because the operator of the sim has to figure out which branch on the tree to select next. Now, the sim itself can understand and progress down the tree so the situation will feel more real time.

It's not an article it's just a bullet point summary of the PR.

VirTra (NASDAQ:VTSI) Thursday announced a $5.9 million order for prototypes to support the U.S. Army’s Integrated Visual Augmentation System program.
This order represents an important continuation in VirTra's (VTSI) engagement with the IVAS program.
VirTra will recognize revenue in three phases with reliability testing, soldier assessment, and final hardware deliveries, all scheduled in 2024.
The order includes bolt kits and magazines and high-pressure air fill stations for the IVAS program specifications, with Microsoft (MSFT) as the prime contractor.

Feels like the only reason to sell is if you think post q1 will offer a better price because of the delays from the continuing resolution pushing out some revs. I have a bunch of way ITM calls I have to figure out what to do with in May.

That dude came onto my radar via VTSI and somehow I ended up following him into what has to be one of his worst misses ever on SMSI. Now it makes me nervous if I'm doing DD on something and see he's already in it which weirdly happens a few times a year it feels like.

Man has had an investors Hub account that averages 1 post per year and has posted on back-to-back days. Virtra is getting people excited !

Resurfacing this info in anticipation of the Q:

The Q3 PR said that they will continue to see YoY growth in Q4 for revenue, (unless they meant YoY trailing full year or something?)
"Our pipeline continues to grow while our backlog remains healthy and will continue to provide our year-over-year revenue increase in the fourth quarter."
Q4 22 was 8.6m

On the call CFO said that Q1 2023 margins (68%) should be closer to the norm than what occurred in Q3 (71%). So say 9m revenue at 68% gross profit with approximately Q3s expenses that should get us to ~.20 EPS, right? TTM of 0.70.

I think it is notable that he registered to sell 120,000 and then decided to stop early.

Ferris has not sold for a while. Total shares sold ~75,000. The fact that he stopped rather than blowing out the full 120,000 seems encouraging.

I was wrong. More filings. Through 11/30 only about half way done.

According to form 4 filings he had sold about 45,000 through 11/27. I would not be surprised based on yesterday's action if he's just about done.

Is it fair to say they guided to around .20/share in Q4?
The PR said that they will continue to see YoY growth in Q4 for revenue, and CFO said that Q1 margins should be closer to the norm. So say 9m revenue at 68% gross profit with approximately Q3s expenses that should get you to .20+, right?

They do it often which is how i caught it. I was refreshing every few min. I didn't buy upon reading though because the caution on bookings without it including the actual number. I was afraid it was going to be 5m or something.

Continuation of this move will be about the booking and backlog. We know it can't be too much of a letdown or they wouldn't be able to guide Q4 rev up like they did. Also think Givens solo on the call will fire people up.

Third Quarter 2023 Financial Highlights:



? Total revenue increased 54% to $7.6 million

? Gross profit increased 114% to $5.4 million, or 71% of total revenue

? Net income increased by $2.4 million to $1.6 million

? Adjusted EBITDA increased to $2.9 million

? Cash and cash equivalents of $17.2 million at September 30, 2023
Although we experienced a temporary slowdown in our bookings during Q3, partly due to a brief government shutdown, we expect them to rebound and accelerate as our sales initiatives gain further traction. Our pipeline continues to grow while our backlog remains heathy and will continue to provide our year-over-year revenue increase in the fourth quarter.

Increased my exposure by 25% this afternoon via May 2.50s Feels cheap with the bonus potential upside of military deals closing at the 9/30 deadline showing up in bookings this Q despite being nowhere on the databases. We know they picked up 4m without PR or usaspending, SAM, etc showing it. Plus, Givens won't show a clunker on his first Q, right? My only reservation with that line of thinking is if he feels like he has a free pass right now where he can lean on the idea of long sales cycles and a new sales team as an excuse for low bookings for the next six months or so.

I hadn't realized until prompted to look it up while checking out this presentation that the mortgage they got was (obviously in retrospect) at a spectacular rate. 3% fixed.

bought back the few hundred I sold post earnings.

I wonder if there is some hesitation by people who expect a bad Q or two during the sales expense ramp since the payoff will be lagged.

I don't know if they break 10m Q3, but last year Q3 had a -7c per share earnings so even just a flat quarter really helps optically for anyone screening by P/E. Nine month trailing is .49 EPS

It was like givens was reading from your posts describing how sales of these things has to work with lots of handholding

Last earnings call was May 15 Monday.

What are the odds that this Q Givens's fulfillment machine forces Ferry to find Jesus on sales?
'Gee, it's nice that the EPS is going to beat expectations, but you guys are delivering so many units that our backlog is getting low. Maybe you should relax for a Q so that we have time to build it back up'
'Maybe you should start making more sales.'

New scenarios needed. No more find the shooter, now find the trip hazard.

Rsquared is a stats term. He was saying that prior Q bookings aren't really too closely related to revenues, but 2x prior Q bookings are. So if you are worried about weak Q1 bookings, then your concern would be better applied to Q3.

Investopedia:

R-squared (R2) is a statistical measure that represents the proportion of the variance for a dependent variable that’s explained by an independent variable in a regression model.

Whereas correlation explains the strength of the relationship between an independent and a dependent variable, R-squared explains the extent to which the variance of one variable explains the variance of the second variable. So, if the R2 of a model is 0.50, then approximately half of the observed variation can be explained by the model’s inputs.

We think all the Florida jobs are military specific?

77k and counting. Best place for checking that I’ve found is nasdaq.com

Isn’t the problem that he did #2 but months before he had to? Presumably he’d have a window to do it post q1 earnings release so how confident can we be in that now despite his claim it was off to a strong start. I wish he could add to the disclosure something like ‘sorry guys I wanted to buy a boat and had to deposit this week’

Insider buy from new CFO spouse. 4,000 at 5.75

Givens goes BEAST MODE off script. What a breath of fresh air to hear ‘we’re not satisfied’ during a good q vs. the standard ‘we are satisfied’ during bad qs

Virtra is like that super talented athlete who drives you crazy by not caring when their talents are obvious but you can’t cut them because every once in a while they show flashes of what’s possible.

Givens Buy https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1085243/000149315222034744/xslF345X03/ownership.xml