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But... I wouldn't trust anything these guys say. What if an announcement comes tomorrow "Darn, we made a mistake, the ex-date will be Nov 15". That's why I always said you need to hold until the 15th if you want to be 100% sure you qualify.
Reference is made to the announcement made by Sino Agro Food Inc. (SIAF or the Company) on 8 October 2018 regarding the distribution of shares in Tri-Way Industries (the Distribution Shares) to shareholders of record 31 October 2018 (the Record Date). The shares in the Company will trade exclusive of the right to receive Distribution Shares today, 30 October 2018.
I think a drop of the pps of about 30% is not too unfair.
I think they will have some difficult explaining to do if they increase AS and dilute heavily in 2019 after implementing the cash dividend policy
and then also stating that they expect to be cash flow positive mid/late Q4/18
1) This is what has been the issue so far, especially with the heavy dilution that has halved the book value. You might have perfect timing on this one though, since we might (...) be close to the end of dilution and also seen the first steps of improvement in management as well (TRW-distribution and cash dividends)
The PE of 10-12 is the value used by the appraisal firm, but for sure is a number one should discuss. There are several factors here; management (expect a lower PE if TRW don't get a different management than SIAF), interest rate (expect a lower PE if interest rates go up, which they will in the short term and possibly in the long term as well), growth (PE of 10-12 would be way too low if TRW is able to demonstrate decent growth also for the 2-3 years till listing), market place (HKSE vs OTC for instance) and so on.
Assuming that TRW is able to continue a nice growth and also not suffering too much turbulance of its net income, then a PE of 10-12 would be very conservative in my opinion.
What long-term goal (PPS-wise) have you set for your investment in SIAF and TRW?
Agreed. If TRWs profits are stable at 40MUSD (or whatnot) then it doesn't really matter whether it cost 500MUSD or 200MUSD to build (unless TRW is able to sell its assets at cost that is, i.e that we have a margin of safety in the book value). So the idea
The reportable value of TRW shares being distributed to SIAF shareholders on November 14, 2018 is US$1.33 per each common share of SIAF based on the assessed value of USD 3.40645 per TRW share
However, as RD pointed out; a PE of 10-12 equals (by coincidence) the "investment at cost" (I don't think RD would dream of valuating TRW at 3.4$/share based on "investment at cost" unless it matched a fair PE - I think there has been a misunderstanding there)
IF a PE of 10-12 is fair then TRW should have a value of 350-420MUSD or 3.5-4.2$/TRW-share. Take 18.3M TRW-shares devided by 42M SIAF-shares (49.3 + possible more dilution - collateral) and you have 1.5-1.8$/SIAF-share in TRW-distribution alone (someone might want to look up what TRWs net-income was)
The interesting argument here would be what PE TRW deserves upon listing on HKSE (or whereever it ends up), i.e whether the PE of 10-12 is fair or not (although it should be conservative).
Another interesting question is how much TRW will grow until listing.
For his statement to add TRWs profits since the appraisal value from 2016 this is wrong if TRW is unable to use those profits to generate more profits, they are right if they have been used to generate more profits of the same PE (10-12 in this case), and they are conservative if they are able to ramp up faster with these profits than what they have proven in the past. However, I believe this uncertainty drowns in other uncertainties (like the issues they have with AF4)
I THINK... fair value is $1.79 per SIAF share TODAY. IF the trade division succeeds, we can make it $2.50. IF they get the $100M loan, the value goes up again. IF we get substantially more ODRAS, the value goes up. IF we get the cooperatives, it will be big. And I will have to consult with Benjamin Graham. Same applies to AF4/5 IF they ever get it up and running.
In general, I THINK the dividend shares will be worth $10 (per SIAF share now) with an IPO in Hong Kong. Best guess, for now. That does not mean I'm confident about an IPO because I'm not. Without it, who knows, PERHAPHS we can sell it for $5.
Pal, it's not my valuation. The company already told you that it's $1.33 for the first distribution. I simply accounted for dilution and it's now $1.263 per SIAF share.
They didn't give you the value of the 2nd distribution. Which I calculated for you, and it's $0.26.
Ok, so you think TRW is much to low in the calculations made by RD.
How much higher do you think the real value is?
P/E 30.?
In Hong Kong the P/E for fast growing companies are even higher than 30.
RD also base his own calculations on future earnings. So what is your problem?
I just said it, based on future earnings. But why am I even talking to you? Unlike zero who is irrationally pessimistic, you are irrationally optimistic. I added you to my blocked list, but somehow, I can still see who replied to my posts.
It is not the cost of assets. SIAF is using the cost method. They used an an appraisal firm for this. The appraisal firm determined the value of AF1 based on its history of profitability. They can't use that for AF4 because it doesn't have a history of profitability. So they used the cost (of construction) here. They also valued the license rights etc. The total of which is $340M as of Q3/2016 for TRW.
TRW booked a profit of $32M in 2017. It is valued at $340M (100M shares x $3.40). That gives you a P/E of 10.6.
Look up the average P/E on any exchange.
TRW is not your ordinary company. It will grow much faster than the average company. Which should give us a P/E close to 30 in Hong Kong. It could be much higher even.
A P/E of 10 does not reflect TRW's fundamentals or growth expectations. Therefore I'm not misleading anyone. Neither is the company when they book the assets at cost.
Well, I have some news for you. Because we are using the exact same method.
The only thing coming out of your mouth is a lot of criticsm regarding SIAF's method of accounting for value (cost method), which they are obligated to do so.
Based on the current numbers, the first distribution is $1.263 per SIAF share. The 2nd distribution $0.26 for a total of $1.52 per SIAF share.
If we assume $60M in profit for TRW the past 2 years then we can add another $0.27 for a total of $1.79 per SIAF share.
If the trade division ramps up nicely then we can target $2,50 per SIAF share. Today.
You read books, don't you?
You can use the Benjamin Graham formula for calculating intrinsic value. For fast growing companies, if you can estimate the growth rate. Whatever the outcome, it will be higher than a P/E of 10.6.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benjamin_Graham_formula
In The Intelligent Investor, Graham was careful to include a footnote that this formula was not being recommended for use by investors — rather, it was to model the expected results of other growth formulas popular at the time.
Readers who continued on in the chapter would have found Graham stating "Warning: This material is supplied for illustrative purposes only, and because of the inescapable necessity of security analysis to project the future growth rate for most companies studied. Let the reader not be mislead into thinking that such projections have any high degree of reliability, or, conversely, that future prices can be counted on to behave accordingly as the prophecies are realized, surpassed, or disappointed
TRW booked a profit of $32M in 2017. It is valued at $340M (100M shares x $3.40). That gives you a P/E of 10.6.
Look up the average P/E on any exchange.
True value cannot be determined for private companies. It depends on fundamentals and growth.
Investment at cost in this case reflects a conservative estimate of fair value. Roughly a P/E of 10 to 12. I would say that's fair. .....We should get a P/E 2 or 3 times higher in Hong Kong.
If you use a P/E of 12 it's worth roughly the same. It's up to you
Because the $3.40645 value per TRW share they are using for the distribution is based on Q3/2016, the carve-out date. At the time, SIAF owned 36.6% or 36.6M TRW shares for a total of $124.67M. That was the investment at cost which SIAF booked at the time. They are distributing half, or 18.3M shares, or $62.3M.
Since that time, TRW has made money. SIAF received its fair share of profit, 36.6%. So the investment at cost now for SIAF, as of Q2/2018 is $141,999,564. Almost $20M more.
If we assume $60M in profit for TRW the past 2 years then we can add another $0.27 for a total of $1.79 per SIAF share
If the trade division ramps up nicely then we can target $2,50 per SIAF share. Today.
Great! Let me buy your shares half that price. Let me end your suffering.
Siaf is probably one of the most predictable TA stocks out there
Blah blah blah post your trades you talked too much non sense peasant.Go be Blocked again!
So you are basically hoping this "NITE" or other market maker to save your ass once the price crosses 0.47? You like to gamble and hope too much without any logic behind it don't you?
Me neither. You probably missed the 2014 rally but at the time NITE was beating it down HARD every few days when the stock was a bit "overheated". Like clockwork. I never trade the stock based on that and I don't care much for what these idiots do, but you can't ignore it either. Especially when 90% of the market participants are clueless.
Sigh. Why don't you sell then for 0.48 and buy it back for 0.40. If you think it's a 50/50 gamble. See how well you do.
I'm not asking anyone to gamble like that. Sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't. But it will present a problem for the people who are still waiting on the sidelines. And also for those who just sold, hoping they could buy it back cheaper.
Traders, market makers, hedge funds will take it higher when we break 0.47.
Watch and learn.
I agree that 0.47 is the level to watch. If we break it, we will move higher fast. Simply the way the market works. And with the drivers we have, it seems to be a matter of time. Perhaps today.
All green here. lol. Very strong buy, FWIW.
A couple of days ago half of it was red.
Based on 1 year time frame on chart above, it seems like we have strong resistance at 0.47 and support level at 0.36. I think we will see some big momentum once we pass through 0.47, all we need is more volume. It seems like we had couple Three Black Crows but failed to reverse. I think it is time to buy, wait...other indicators suggests me to sell and if I change the time-frame it becomes more complicated. Lol, I can go on and on with this BS, your TAs don't mean anything, it is like a crystal ball but a useless one that misleads investors. You are just guessing nothing more nothing less.
Yeah, but all the indicators wants it to go over .45. We failed the first attempt, but this one should do the trick.
Yes, of course. Just for the stock dividend. If we take $10 as the target, then SIAF should be worth another $30 or so. In theory.
But we can still dream. Anything is possible with those cooperatives. I can calculate how many hectares of ODRAS we need for a $100 stock.
Let's assume that 50% of future profits will go to TRW/CA. Which means that perhaps 35% will go to SIAF/CA and what we own of TRW.
For $100 and 40M shares outstanding, a P/E of 10, you would need $400M in earnings. 400 / 0.35 = $1,143M profit needed overall.
The yield per hectare is roughly 120 MT. The profit roughly $400,000 per hectare.
So you would need 2,850 hectares. or 42,000 mu. I mean, who really knows. They already have 6,000 mu planned in Yangjiang and 2,000 in Shenwan. Of course it will take time, and the problem is financing. But anything is possible. And this is just from Cooperatives/ODRAS in China. Doesn't even include APRAS or TRW or CA.
Per SIAF share. It is $1.75 now. Let's include the trade division and make it $2.50. With a proper P/E in Hong Kong it will be 2x or 3x higher. Add some growth, that's 10 bucks.
The trick now is cooperatives and fast growth IMO Then it could be worth 20 bucks. .
Now it becomes interesting whether SIAF will retain 18.3% or 36.6% or possibly more if they sell CA to TRW. Because some of that value will be reflected in SIAF's share price. Especially if people are able to sell their Hong Kong shares and buy more SIAF....
What do you think of the future prospect of SJAP and the other cattle divisions? Are TRW and CA the only main factors here?
post those trade confirms brother! nobody believes anyone has a legitimate 33% gain when the SPREAD is near 20% before broker commissions.
more fantasy gains from a perennial loser stock idea pumped to the gills by career criminals.
dont get suckered!
You win..You are smarter.. Good luck in all your investments..
Go back Mr. 1 year investor and read the BS that has been put out by SIAF and the pumpers...Failed Cattle, Flowers, fish ponds with no heaters, Cafes,spinoffs, carveouts, dividends...Huge dilution to pay everyday bills..HUGE LOANS just waiting for many banks to approve...History proves itself!
Yes, I got fooled, by those that claimed to have the knowledge that you profess to have..So yes, I was a sucker, but please don't lead others to invest in something that has caused others to lose.. THAT is WRONG!