Sino Agro Food Inc (fka SIAF)

[ValueInvestor01]

Yes, of course. Just for the stock dividend. If we take $10 as the target, then SIAF should be worth another $30 or so. In theory.

But we can still dream. Anything is possible with those cooperatives. I can calculate how many hectares of ODRAS we need for a $100 stock.

Let's assume that 50% of future profits will go to TRW/CA. Which means that perhaps 35% will go to SIAF/CA and what we own of TRW.

For $100 and 40M shares outstanding, a P/E of 10, you would need $400M in earnings. 400 / 0.35 = $1,143M profit needed overall.

The yield per hectare is roughly 120 MT. The profit roughly $400,000 per hectare.

So you would need 2,850 hectares. or 42,000 mu. I mean, who really knows. They already have 6,000 mu planned in Yangjiang and 2,000 in Shenwan. Of course it will take time, and the problem is financing. But anything is possible. And this is just from Cooperatives/ODRAS in China. Doesn't even include APRAS or TRW or CA.

I bet most of these predictions will be off 2-3 years from now. This only applies in perfect world.

Per SIAF share. It is $1.75 now. Let's include the trade division and make it $2.50. With a proper P/E in Hong Kong it will be 2x or 3x higher. Add some growth, that's 10 bucks.

The trick now is cooperatives and fast growth IMO Then it could be worth 20 bucks. .

Now it becomes interesting whether SIAF will retain 18.3% or 36.6% or possibly more if they sell CA to TRW. Because some of that value will be reflected in SIAF's share price. Especially if people are able to sell their Hong Kong shares and buy more SIAF....

I think the fast growth instead of slow but consistent is one of the thing that can destroy this company.

You starts throwing imaginary numbers again, as much as I want it to happen, it won't happen.