Flying high with AYSI
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
I put an order in this morning in the .30s and got a partial fill. Not many people are willing to sell in that area either. The market consensus for value for today is in the mid to high .30s. Anyone who wants to sell at around .30 or below for a few more thousand shares should put in an order and I will be happy to pick them up.
Mat
Well, I think the 10Q has been summarized pretty well so far, nothing exciting for the quarter, but also not a harbinger of doom, except if you make a straight line extrapolation from last year through this last quarter. If this ends up being the bottom for AYSI, they are well positioned when demand picks back up. I doubt this next quarter will be particularly exciting either, but hopefully they can position themselves as the world mining economy turns so they can get the second mill operating. If that happens, AYSI will have a significant boost that will reward shareholders significantly.
Mat
Anything north of .01 would be an acceptable quarter to me. Particularly if there is additional news on the 2nd mill and sales going forward. I don't expect a big rally after this 10Q, but hope to see things ramp back toward where they were in subsequent quarters.
AYSI has pleasantly surprised in the past, so maybe things will be a bit higher, but I can't possibly imagine hitting .05.
Mat
No problem dude, just responding to the overall frustration with your incessant jabbering.
Raw,
You don't piss me off, but I certainly tire of your relentless Chicken Little act on AYSI. We understand your opinion and when some additional data becomes available, feel free to share it again. Hearing it over and over as others try to provide an alternate perspective that you completely ignore and then reiterate your perspective with different words is tiring. I am sure your rant is purely altruistic and if your dire predictions are right you can officially tout "I told you so". As I believe Gilead asked, how will you respond if AYSI turns a profit for their "weak" quarter?
Mat
Sam,
I agree 100% with your perspective. The only person who appears to be exagerating and extrapolating the facts is Raw. It is unfortunate because I have read his posts from other boards and thought he had a modicum of credibility, but I guess that speculation on my part was inaccurate.
Clearly AYSI is a risky, small company, but over the last few years management has shown an excellent ability to grow while controlling costs with no dilution. No small feat for such a tiny company. Times are not great in the short term, but AYSI is poised for the future. It is a risk, but to compare it to hitting on a 20 is a big stretch. I don't think the blackjack analogy works since it assumes you either hit big or go over. I believe the AYSI history shows a controlled, well run company that will struggle over the next couple of quarters (my opinion) with a small amount of downside, but a large upside when the market turns. I choose to remain heavily invested in AYSI because all it takes is another strong, committed customer(s) to absorb the demand of the second mill and drive some significant earnings growth since the capacity is almost available.
A risk, but certainly not worthy of POS. POS for me is restricted to high dilution, inability to control costs, wildly swinging revenues, obsolete products that are not adaptive to the market, or evidence of corruption.
Mat
Raw,
What's your problem with AYSI? It has not had a "disaster" quarter in well over a year. I certainly would not characterize it as about to explode, but very few stocks are right now and I believe AYSI has a lot less downside and quite a bit more upside for the long run. What upside you ask?
AYSI is a tiny supplier and a bit more penetration would be big for AYSI. The second mill and Mongolia opportunity could be the ticket for that growth. AYSI management have shown the ability to maintain net income with no dilution and has an excellent product. AYSI is no sure thing, but I am surprised that you are so negative.
my two cents,
Mat
As I have said before, being at the bottom of this list isn't all that bad. Thanks to all for making this possible and sharing their knowledge.
Mat
Dave,
Yes, I remember the discussion and if that is the case it would bode well for this Qtr or is good for some slower quarter coming up
Mat
What about Festivus and the airing of grievances? It is important to recognize all traditional holidays...LOL
Well I am pretty satisfied with the 10K. It would be nice for the mill to be farther along, but with the dip in the economy, it might be better to be delayed. A few interesting notes from my quick review.
Gene's base salary went down $25K in 08. I didn't check his other compensation.
Inventories actually went up in the last quarter from 1.8M to 2.3M and finished goods stayed stable going from 785K to 765K. It would be interesting to better understand this number. Maybe it is their new steady state inventory.
I am tempted to buy more at this price, but already have a boat load.
Merry Christmas to all!
Mat
I decided I am a buyer and bought another 5800 at .56. I expect AYSI is not up more because of a bigger seller, but also I am sure there is doubt on demand over the next few quarters.
I expect when the annual report is out we will get a little bump up and may get a little appreciation between now and then. If the annual report provides a timetable or announces startup of the second mill we should get another bump and the JV or an order that will ramp up the second mill would take things back toward where we were earlier this year.
I am thinking that the need for increased efficiency for AYSI customers and there small size may end up supporting AYSI growth in the next year, but we will see.
Mat
LF,
Excellent evaluation. I was amazed to see 97 posts and then equally disappointed as I read through it all to find lots of baseless speculation and OT. Things may not be rosy for awhile and I am frustrated, but silence is normal for AYSI and that, coupled with the global economic challenges, are the only variables we know for sure. I may get burned, but I am not getting out of AYSI at this point.
Thanks,
Mat
I am still holding tough, but I must admit the lack of any update is a bit frustrating. The company provided a completion date for the mill and should update the shareholders on its progress.
Also, for the first time I didn't get any response to an email I sent a month ago to Alan and Gene. I am sure they are busy, but in the past I at least got a brief response.
I am still optimistic for an exceptional quarter and news of the mill and any continuing orders would be a huge boost.
Mat
I also sent an email day before yesterday, but have not received a response yet. Hopefully I receive a similar response and I know we all look forward to an update. Thanks for sharing.
Mat
AYSI,
Yes, I got my order filled at $1.45 and I am very happy. I will be even happier when we hear about the mill being complete and in operation. I think AYSI is at a great price, but I now have 70K shares and really can't overweight anymore. It is actually a larger percentage than I like, but it is just too compelling.
Mat
AYSI: I bought 4500 shares at $1.50 in the last week and have an order in for some more at $1.45.
Mat
I will go with Indy for week 1.
Thanks,
Mat
Stan,
Thanks for your perspective and best of luck on MDF. I am selling very slowly, and you are correct that it is still a profit but not quite the great investment return I had anticipated. Oh well, I do wish you and the other investors all the best.
Mat
Please freeze ZYXI.
Thanks,
Mat
Stanu,
The whole reason I liked MDF was the solid cash cow with Humana and the fact they were diversifying with the HMO. I thought the HMO timing was good and if they could get past break-even, the two areas of business would be synergistic. Mike Early had said early on that a mature HMO would value members at $10K, so since MDF sold for $2K, sounds like Humana got a bargain. Yes, I know it was a load stone on MDF and probably was the best thing to do if they could never make it profitable, but it was a huge wasted investment over the last few years. I am slowly unloading my position, although I recognize the clamoring that MDF is worth more now because of the solid cash flow. That may be true, but it is dependent completely on Humana and I don't see alot of growth opportunity down the road. I hope I am wrong, but I will find other places for my money. MDF was ok for me since I started buying at .50, but it has been dead money for far too long. Best of luck to you.
Mat
Gilead,
Excellent point! That frames production for the quarter in a completely different light.
Thanks,
Mat
It is particularly heartening that Mr. Winduss provided feedback so quickly. For long term investors it looks like the next few months will be a buying opportunity.
Mat
Dave,
Thanks for taking the lead on this. Hopefully we can get some feedback from AYSI and company can return to the growth we were seeing through last quarter.
Mat
Tough Day.
The fundamental basis for my long-term investment remain, but admitedly this was far worse a quarter than I had anticipated. I am not surprised the mill is running behind and it seems reasonable that costs would be up when lining up for second mill operations and the mongolia JV activities. If the extra inventory represents an order that is about to be filled, the quarter wouldn't be horrible with that extra 800K. Could bode well for this quarter, although I expect the increased costs will continue this quarter and it may also be disappointing (<.05) until the second revenue begins to contribute. I sold a little ZYXI today and have a low-ball offer for some more AYSI. I played the ZYXI dips well, but failed on AYSI. Too bad AYSI is my larger holding. Live and learn.
Mat
Nice job Gilead. Congratulations.
RMIWA
ZYXI,
As much as I like it, I unloaded 10% at $3.28. I may regret it, but I think I have a decent chance to buy back in at a lower price. Yes, I know that is probably sacreligious to some.
I was suprised that my percentage return on ZYXI passed my return on AYSI. I have held AYSI since October and ZYXI only since March. Too bad I only have 10K shares of ZYXI vs. 50K of AYSI. This is a disappointment I can deal with. Best of luck to all VMC investors.
Mat
AYSI vs. ZYXI, The Epic Battle Continues
Looks like Gene and AYSI were not happy with ZYXI steadily pulling ahead in the pps race leading to the 8k from AYSI. The 8k was enough for me to load up some more and I bought another 4K of shares around $2.60. This is the kind of competition I can really enjoy, but if they get overextended I don't have another up and comer to turn to. Anyone have another budding gem to consider?
Thanks,
Mat
AYSI and ZYXI are now neck and neck. Clearly ZYXI has the recent momentum, but I am counting on a push by AYSI down the back stretch. Looks like this race could be a nail biter! My money is on AYSI by a nose, but I am happy to be a winner with gains in either! Best of luck to all!
Mat
How about a photo-finish race between ZYXI and AYSI to $5? Now that is a race where everyone is a winner!
Mat
Excellent information, thanks. I assume he did not mention any plans to provide an update on mill construction/startup? AYSI is by far my largest holding, and although there are quite a few risks (ability to startup new mill smoothly, whether increased demand exists immediately or not, global recession, competition) I still believe it is the best opportunity I have seen in awhile and I have yet to hear anything that would sway that opinion.
Mat
It is hard to pass up in the $2.30s. Hope you get a few more down low before the next march upward. It sure would be nice to get a mill update.
Mat
A bit of a drop this morning. I recently started to unload my MDF holdings and therefore had some cash and bought some more shares at $2.37. I am also trying to get a little more ZYNX.
Mat
Did you get them at $2.40? If so, I think you got a fantastic bargain! I reloaded the 10% I sold at $2.84 at $2.55 and am happy with that price. If I had a little more cash on hand I would definately buy more at $2.40. It may be a bumpy ride for the next couple of months, but the longer term outlook is blindingly bright. Best of luck.
Mat
My thanks to the investor willing to sell me a few shares at $2.55. I am more than happy to buy some more in the $2.50s. I believe this is an excellent place to enter AYSI if you haven't already and obviously I believe it is a good spot to add as well.
Mat
SS - I agree with you that AYSI is a bit overheated, although still undervalued. I sold 10% of my stake at $2.84 this morning as a small hedge to a drop back before the next big run. It is true that this gem may get recognized and stabilize out in the $3s before the next run, but with small companies like this, and the world economy as it is, I decided to sell a bit and get more on dips. I won't take any more than 10% more off the table before results of the new mill and Mongolia are known, but that 10% could go in the 3s if AYSI gets there. I have learned that no matter how great the stock looks, there is always a decent percentage of surprises so I sell a little as the price continues to go up.
Do you always go all in and all out on your trades? How often do you miss the boat on a big run? I am sure you are comfortable with that and clearly you avoid the unexpected disappointment and associated dive.
Mat
Nice movement today. On the PPS and breakout board! There is alot to be happy with for AYSI investors. As more investors see this gem for what it is, continuing gains in earnings will be rewarded with a higher multiple. Nice end to the week, and Happy Fathers Day to all!
Mat
Fantastic news. Clearly Gene has been using his time wisely and AYSI shareholders should profit handsomely. Nice job!
Mat
Nice month ZYNX! I sure am glad to have ZYNX and AYSI in my portfolio and I was able to add to my holdings in both last month with a nice profit already. Thanks to all for the DD that helped me decide to invest in both of these gems.
Thanks,
Mat
Nice breakout, glad I increased my position by 30% at $1.96. My shares aren't going anywhere for awhile. Hopefully the buyers are ready to run AYSI up to the pps it deserves. Congratulations to all AYSI investors!
Mat