Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Mal, I'm Just Making a Chart Call
There is a large gap in the charts at 1.25 from the end of December. While there are other gaps below the current VAPE pps, the 1.25 gap is the most glaring.
That's all. It's not a "prediction", more so an observation. Maybe it is laughable but I would prepare yourself for that number because if it happens, the impact will be lessened, though nobody will be laughing. I've seen more unbelievable drops in far more reputable big board and Nas equities.
Fundamentally, 1.25 seems ridiculous because it almost puts the p/e at 1 if the VAPE revenues are accurate.
I don't want to ruffle any feathers. I'm in VAPE and many MJ equities as an investor more than a trader but also as a long time cannabis user/advocate. I just think there are a lot of wide eyed dreamers here in the nascent MJ equities which just adds fuel to the fire.
I have posted this on many boards but the MJ market cycle for the past three years has seem a boom in Q1 followed by a bust for the remaining quarters of the year. This year has been exacerbated by the Colorado legalization, making the boom and bust much more explosive. There are a lot of factors in 2014 that may break the cycle but right now the MJ equities are not doing so.
WTF LATF
I'm still a little skeptical about this one. I got in with a few milly shares at .006-007 and to date LATF is my only holding showing a loss. I have a lot of legitimacy questions about this one.
Does anyone have the address to Latteno's Los Angeles MJ evaluations office? As it so happens, my yearly MMJ recommendation is set to expire soon and I'd love to stop by for a renewal as well as check out the operation
Don't Know About Support But Plenty of Buying
There really isn't much support in most MJ plays (long term especially), VAPE included, because most MJ equities are still at all time highs that were reached in parabolic rises over the past 5 months. Void of any fundamental news, VAPE looks to be steaming towards the 1.25 gap in December 2013. If you are a new sub-$5 long like me looking to accumulate that number doesn't worry me but if you are a buyer in the past 5 months, I'd prepare for yourself for the potential of 1.25
VAPE seems like a great company. I am committing a decent amount of capital to VAPE because I like their business. The company has real products and real revenues as far as I can tell. The share structure is excellent making them attractive as an investment and even a buyout. Comparable companies have market caps in the $350m range (with share counts in the billions) and that valuation for VAPE would put the pps back in the 40 range.
Remember, it's always darkest before dawn, buy when there's blood in the streets even if it's your own, blah, blah blah.
Good fortune to all
Is SKTO Next to Get Halted?
Another shady stock was halted today.
The SEC pumped the breaks on the entire MJ sector with the PHOT halt, taking out the Jan 1 CO legalization momentum at the knees.
How can SKTO be reporting revenues that are 3-5x the company's market cap, revenues they have been only able to collect a mere 1% of? Either this company is vastly undervalued by the market or people just refuse to believe the numbers. Clearly option 1 is unlikely because in today's markets, share price is not beholder to fundamental metrics but is dictated by what people will pay.
So I'm thinking option 2 is the only answer; people just do not believe what SKTO is reporting.
I'm not here to bash. SKTO has been quite rewarding to me. I got in at .007 and sold a large portion at .04, realizing a healthy profit and paying for the leftover position. I was itching to sell at .07 but regrettably did not because we were all riding the momentum, hoping for that blue sky breakout.
A few weeks back I posted SKTO was on the chopping block in my portfolio. Instead I dumped CBIS which was a good move. SKTO is so low right now that I have no reason to sell. Even if I loose the entire position, I wouldn't be too upset considering it's paid for and then some. But I sure as heck would not be buying SKTO right now.
I think SKTO has a very good likelihood of being halted for two reasons;
1. The earnings numbers are just ridiculous. $30m in revenue and the company's market cap is $10m? They cannot even collect the revenue! How on earth are they going to show contracts and purchase orders to account for those numbers when the SEC comes knocking?
2. PharmaJanes is supposedly a medical MJ delivery service. That's illegal under federal law. Look I'm the first to say those laws are unjust, outdated and ridiculous but I don't make the laws, I just break them. PharmaJanes is equally as likely to be shutdown by the DEA as SKTO is likely to be halted by the SEC.
I'm sorry guys. I don't mean to pour salt on wounds as this is already a tough time for the MJ equities market but I'm not impressed at all by SKTO or SK3.
It's Not Approval ERBB Needs
From what has already been posted here, Colorado law allows for MJ vending machines. As does California which is really where ERBB needs to shift focus. There are already several shops using vending machines here in CA and I'm not talking about networked machines or MedBoxes, I'm talking traditional coil release devices with alpha numeric keypads.
Per Dok's most recent interview, Shearin stated the Zazzz faceplate is back at the shop being tweaked. Once the final tweaks are made, the faceplate can easily be duplicated. I'll admit that it's pretty disappointing that once again the Zazzz is delayed. To paraphrase Steve Jobs, it's all about delivery. Tranzbyte has pretty much squandered the great press exposure from the release by rushing to market a non-operational Zazzz machine, giving competitors valuable time to get their products to market.
I still think ERBB has enormous potential with the hat trick of MJ plays; Zazzz brand vending machines and vapor pens, Jurassic Water Systems and OneBode neutraceuticals.
A few days ago I finally received my American Green order. Love the shirts and hats! I've already received numerous compliments on the revolution cap and have been asked what American Green is all about. But here is a problem I encountered;
I ordered the items on April 17 and didn't receive them until two weeks later despite paying extra for Priority Mail and contacting the company twice about the order. If American Green is struggling to fill $100 apparel orders, and also struggling to bring a functional Zazzz machine to market, how are we supposed to be confident ERBB can deliver on major orders of far more sophisticated machinery?
From the looks of it the MJ market is being pulled into the typical cycle of MJ stock performance with a pop in Q1 followed by a selloff in the remaining quarters. This has been the cycle for the past 3 years in the MJ market. Sure their are more catalysts this year including a far more substantial Q1 pop due to Colorado legalization, but the drop has been just a severe.
Keep in mind 6 months ago ERBB was at triple zero lows. I don't think ERBB goes under a penny but I do see that .015 gap approaching rapidly. If ERBB gets down there, I rolling out the canons and smashing all asks. Until then my outlook will be cautious.
And that's my one post for the day.
Looks Like SKTO Will Be a Write Off
I'm waiting until the end of the year before I take this dog out to the prairie and put it out of its misery.
I got into SKTO last year at .007 and sold half at .04 so I'm sitting on all profits. Ironically I said the same about ERB8 back in Nov 2013, as quoted in the subject of the post "I'm Giving ERBB Until Q2 2024". However that stock is up several 1000%, still.
SKTO was at one point promising. But the company is reporting earnings that is 2x their market cap and they can't even collect the revenues they are claiming. This is all very fishy.
I'll hold through the May 15 earnings but unless there is noticeable, and more important, CREDIBLE progress reported, I'm getting out of this pig.
VAPE is Becoming My New Favorite
Low float. Great sector of the MJ market. Great products with a loyal customer base.
I was buying a bunch in the low 3s and high 2s but I'm committing capital all the way up to 5.
Current holdings are 6700 shares at a CB of 3.45. Looking to round that off to 10000 total.
Jim Cramers Tweets About Liking ERBB
From 24h ago, approx. 3:30p Friday
I made it clear which i like RT @420Kinvestor: i trust you know all about $mine $vpor $frtd $erbb $usei $myec and the #wolfpack by now.
— Jim Cramer (@jimcramer) May 2, 2014
MJ Banking Could Be the Next Boom
Small banks in WA and CO are looking into accepting mj revenues. Plenty of folks don't trust too big to fail banks. I will have more specific in the days to come but from I'm hearing, small banks could be serious beneficiaries of the MJ boom
Sure People Still Drink Corona
But I'll stick with Lagunitas or local beers any day. I wouldn't buy low grade cannabis whether it was from Mexico or from West Hollywood. Low quality cannabis is headache inducing and irritating on the lungs.
I don't think you're "deceiving"'anyone. When it comes to financial acumen, you have plenty. I have repeatedly stated you raise valid points about the taxes but to say legalization will lead to increased violence is nothing short of misguided. But I'm still waiting for an example where legalization of anything has lead to an increase in violence.
As for that Washington Post article citing Rand studies and "expert" analysis, I don't put much emphasis on those speculations. Those claims are like listening to 2 doctors testifying on behalf of the defense and the prosecution; one doctor's professional opinion will completely contradict the other's.
"Bankrupt" may be a bit of an over-exaggeration but the 2-4% decrease is for more of an underestimate than mine being an overestimate. There are equally as many studies saying there is and will be a drastic decrease in importing. The study linked below suggests a 65-85% decrease in marijuana imports from Mexico. That same study states MJ imports from Mexico is already only a small portion of of the cartels profits. AND the very same study claims cannabis prices may drop by as much as 80% due to legalization.
http://californiawatch.org/dailyreport/california-pot-could-dominate-us-market-eclipse-mexican-imports-5681
Again, this is just another counter-argument with little bearing other than to keep a balance. Time will tell.
Huh? Violence in Mexico?
Was that a joke? Mexico's cannabis distribution network is bankrupt. They can't move marijuana in their largest market, Southwest and Northwest US. The entire West Coat and bordering states are flooded with legal weed. The few tons of MJ that comes through from Mexico via tunnels and boat are taken to the middle of the country. I think I was about 14 the last time I smoked some Mexican brick weed. MMJ and recreational legalization has almost wiped out the cartels ability to compete in the marijuana trade. Cocaine, heroin even meth pours through Mexico but the days of bringing weed are coming to a close. In fact, what is more common now amongst Mexican drug cartels is to send people to US state and national parks to operate guerrilla grows and sell the goods locally.
Did prohibition increase violence from previously outlawed importers like rum from the Carribean or tequila from Mexico? Uh no. It establish massive liquor conglomerates run by men in suits.
DTC, I'm sorry but this is just incredibly flawed logic. Violence comes hand in hand with an illegal trade, not legalization. Cite one example where legalization of an outlawed good has caused more violence (except maybe guns).
Another major positive of the cannabis trade is that it really is truly a domestic industry. The quality in California is the best I have seen anywhere in the world. There is no need to import. The domestic cannabis trade is providing jobs and in turn a whole new income tax base. The domestic industry is also filling vacant real estate, again a source of real estate tax revenues instead of write offs for empty space. Before long, the cannabis industry will be powerful enough to lobby for reduced taxes. Obviously that's speculation, but I just don't believe the situation is going to get worse.
Sillylung That's Only a Fraction of the Story
Yes there are "high" taxes but the 80% cumulative total is absurdly high and a false correlation. In CO customers are charged 30% on a purchase. That's a decent price to pay for legally purchase cannabis. I equate it to being wealthy in America and paying higher taxes;
I don't mind the premium I pay on my healthy income because I consider it lucky to live in this great country. In the same way it costs me a little extra to live in an expensive area of town, this is the price one pays for good fortune.
As for the comments about "staying MMJ in WA", sure there are a lot of collectives that want to keep cannabis medicinal. In 2008 when CA had an initiative to fully legalize it was the medical dispensaries who were the most vocal against the bill because they wanted to maintain their exclusivity in the market. Subsequently, as city councils across the state grapple with the proliferation of medical clubs, it is often MMJ shop owners pitted against each other. In LA the city council issued a mandate to close newer shops and who do you think was the most vocal in support of shutting down new MMJ facilities? The older established facilities supported it because it eliminated their competition. Now instead of violence in response to "turf battles", MMJ clinics are using legislation. Crazy.
I'm not saying DTC is wrong, he raises valid points about taxes and some of their effects on the legal markets but to claim that 1/8 of cannabis will cost 2-3x more (or even 8-10x more)mbecause of new developments is not going to happen. Nobody is paying $150-200 for a fully legal 1/8 of weed (as high as $600 for an 1/8 at 8-10x more?!?!!!).
That's just not how legalization works. Black market "drug dealers" make so much money because they can charge a serious premium due to risk. Alcohol prices plummeted in the years following the end of prohibition and the same will happen with cannabis. The market will figure itself out in due time but we're a long way off on tripling or octupulating (real word?) the price of an 1/8.
It's Always Darkest Before Dawn
It's been a tough period for a lot of people here. This board is a mess. Good posters have been hobbled by admin. I PM'ed admin about lies here like the one about ERBB's CEO being arrested or the one about ERBB having a DTC chill. Admin's response was that "truth" is subjective and they do not delete messages based on the voracity of truth.
My answer to that is truth IS subjective BUT FACTS ARE NOT. Ridiculous. Any other medium and those lies could carry serious legal consequences.
Regardless of the hard times, ERBB as a company is still shining brightly. The company is executing in ways only previously dreamed of. Sure the share price has slipped but there have been some high volume days combined with what is looking like a technical bottom. The market is counterintuitive and with all the great developments from ERBB, the pullback is certainly fitting that mold of irregularity.
I have done a little buying in the low 3s and high 2s but I am holding on to a wad of cash in case ERBB dips to the .015 gap.
There's a lot of news on the horizon;
Zazzz machine coming online soon
Zazzz vapor pens so to be released.
Washington less than 30 days away from legalization
Earnings reports
Mid term elections
Even Alan Brochstein is rating ERBB a buy after calling it junk when the stock was at .0025
All major catalysts.
Well that's my 1 post here for the day. We'll see how long it last before it gets deleted
I'm Just Not Buying It
Current prices at shops are competitive with street values and on a quality v cost basis, the shops vastly exceed what is offered with most black market cannabis. Of course downward pressure squeezes margins but look at the liquor industry post prohibition. During prohibition, alcohol prices clearly had a premium for obvious reasons. After prohibition the prices plummeted yet enormous corporations were still able to develop and thrive as profit margins decline. In fact, today those corporations are among the most powerful in the world, spending hundreds of millions on R&D, acquisitions and other operational expenses with enough leftover to do billions of dollars worth of marketing for a product that pretty much sells itself to consumers. Oh yeah, and there is still enough to spend a few hundred million more in lobbying Congress!
I don't doubt your MJ market experience but I can tell you as someone who made lots of money growing, the current prices generate enough profit. Even after paying rent on the grow house, paying people to help, paying for nutrients, paying for energy, I was still making a margin over 50%.
What I think you are seeing in prospectuses is a new for of greed that has entered the market. Street thugs dress in baggy clothes and use a knife or gun to rob you. White collar thugs dress in suits and use a pen or computer to rip you off.
DTC Where Do You Get 2-3x?
To answer your first post, yes, legalized cannabis has without question changed not only my buying habits but my consumption habits as well. Greens posted a link to an article that pretty much sums up why it is so much better to buy from legal cannabis shops but I will give you my personal input as well
http://tokesignals.com/top-10-reasons-dispensaries-beat-going-to-a-marijuana-dealer/
I have had medical access to cannabis in LA since 2003 when Prop 215 passed allowing for storefronts to open. Prior to that I purchased cannabis flower from the black market. Chasing down "dealers", getting lower quality flowers and legal risk is now a thing of the past. The quality and consistency of the availability is a key factor in purchasing from shops. I also purchase cannabis products from a vending machine (Zen Healing is West Hollywood has 2 traditional machines). So my buying habits have most definitely changed.
As for my consumption habits, I rarely "smoke" flowers anymore. Today I mostly use edibles and drinkables. I have plenty of grower friends who make teas, pasta sauces, oils and other treats but the consistency of the goods at the shops are much better. I have also started to use vaporizers more. Although grinding flowers for a traditional vape is not a change resulting from legalization, I have just started to use atomizers that burn waxes and oils, products that are consistently available at shops.
Those are 2 brief examples of how legal cannabis has changed my acquisition and consumption habits. I could go on but those are the most salient points.
But where do you get this 2-3x higher cost from shops? That is just plain untrue.
In 2003, an eighth on the black market (3.5g)was about $45-50 and it was always a mixed bag, sometimes decent quality other times not so much. Back then the shops were way overcharging for top shelf flower BUT there has always been a variety of strains to choose from ranging from $30-80 for an eighth. The $50 eighth from the shops was equivalent in potency to what is available on the black market and the higher grade cannabis at the shops can rarely be found on the street.
Also in the 10 years since legalization, the prices have only come down. It's a simple lesson in supply and demand. The demand is stronger than ever, but the supply is bigger than ever too as everyone wants in on the cannabis industry. An 1/8 of top shelf OG Kush was going for about $80 in 2003, whereas today that same bit would cost $60-65 tops. That's a major plus for consumers.
I have a relative in CO who still buys black market. Actually he is a very wealthy person so he doesn't "buy" per se, so much as he is given cannabis as payment for small debts and the stuff he gets is garbage. In states where cannabis is in some way legal, any grower still trying to move their product in the black market is a fool.
Not say buying it on the black market is foolish either but people just don't know what they are missing. I'll never forget the excitement of walking into a dispensary for the first time. Kid in a candy store doesn't even compare. And 8 years later to be able to invest in cannabis related companies........such an exciting time
Best of luck to ya!
ERBB May Be a Dog Now
But when your cost basis is at about .0045 even after buying the recent dips between .0275-.035,
Then I call it Mans Best Friend
As far as ERBB goes, I think it is one of the best prospects in the industry
The vending machine is a gem but it is only a small part of their business. ERBB also has a proprietary cultivation system they are co-marketing with another MJ industry player which already has a $1.7m preorder. In a few days ERBB will announce the launch of a line of vaporizers developed by the Vapor Group. ERBB also has an exclusive deal with Abattis Bioceuticals, a reputable Canadian MJ firm. Rumors are swirling about a partnership with Dixie (biggest MJ brand in Colorado) as ERBB's Zazzz vending machine was displayed at Dixie's Fannabis Cup booth this year. Oh yeah, ERBB just announced that they teamed up with USEI to purchase a grow facility and open a dispensary in Denver. Then there's the OneBode nutritional division of ERBB which brings NBA superstar MVP Steve Nash to the table as a customer, spokesperson and shareholder.
ERBB's COO Stephen Shearin is proving to be a dynamic player in the MJ market. The press from the recent vending machine release was outrageous and it was orchestrated by Shearin who has previous media experience. Maybe there are only "a scant few firm orders" but according to Shearin as many as 17 machines can be produced per day.
I'm in ERBB for the long term having made 6 figure realized profits and still sitting on a load of share. When I bought my largest chunk with a cost basis of less than .002 (read my post from Nov 2013 titled "I'm Giving ERBB Until Q2 2014"), ERBB was at its lowest low in 2 years. The streets were red with ERBBlood.
Today those streets flow again. I'm buying in small chunks again and waiting for a possible gap fill at .015 before recommitting serious capital.
It's always darkest before dawn.
Best of luck with your other plays. May they bring you half the returns I have seen with ERBB and you shall be richly rewarded.
Thanks Doc
Keeping it real as always. Great info and always a good laugh. Still in awe how that guy is a "maven" after being clowned out of the mainstream finance world.
One of My Picks Dwarfs All 23
Any fool can make money in a parabolic bull market. The real test is doing it when the market swings. I'm not on 420i, maybe he's still making great picks but I still cannot believe people pay $45 a month for advice that can be easily found for free. If someone is seeking professional advice, even ETrade or Schwab have more competent analysts for just having an account.
My ERBB "pick" was up 4500% 2 months after he said the stock was junk. I sold at 100%, 2000% and 4500% which is several thousand % more than the paper portfolio on 420i.
Gotta go folks. Got a dinner engagement.
Yeah Check His Other Calls Too
At the risk of yet another deletion, that guy has also had some horrific calls.
He was extremely bearish in Q4 of 2013 and those who listened to his calls not to buy numerous MJ equities missed out on the most epic MJ market explosion in January 2014. The worst call there was his post bashing ERBB in December only to watch it go up over 5000% in the next 2 months.
Just like the MCIG and GWPH calls, he also said PHOT and CANN were some of the only reputable tickers and bam! those 2 were halted by the SEC.
There is a reason he is shilling in the penny stock world for exposure after "working" 20 years in the finance industry.
DrMerlot Check Out Those Stocks
TTDZ is interesting. The CEO has an interesting past with Pink Dot, a great concept that was poorly executed and a difficult business plan due to overhead. TTDZ products are interesting. The share structure is probably one of the most limiting factors.
ANAS (formerly PMRS) has probably the worst ticker I have ever seen. Now that I got the schoolboy giggles out of the way, I think there is an interesting business there. The 5-Hour high product is compelling. I have actually tried a similar product from an LA dispensary but was not impressed, though I also don't get off on 5-Hour Energy either so that's irrelevant. I did not see what the share structure was like but I assume their float is large judging from the volume.
VGPR is pretty sketchy but the growing side has massive potential, especially for buyouts.
That's an armchair analysis and about the best I can do right now. I wouldn't want to call a buy or sell on any of those. That's your call. My best recommendation is buy in cash and not with margin. Definitely do not use lunch money (or breakfast and dinner money for that matter).
Tearex, That is a Concern But
There has been a lot of speculation about big tobacco, big pharma and the alcohol (the Three Bogeymen) bullying their way into the industry. It is a worthy concern but here's how I see it:
MJ players are scrambling to get their businesses operating. Colorado and California MJ industry leaders are already well established. In CA, medical shops have been open for over a decade and CO / WA will be in full swing before the Three Bogeymen are even legally cleared to enter the industry. Therefore, the Three Bogeymen will have 2 options; spend loads of capital on R&D, local infrastructure and hiring knowledge cannabis experts....or.....the Three could start acquiring the already existing MJ businesses.
Option 1 is unlikely. The Three Bogeymen will not only have to meet the goals above but they will also have to deal with state licensing as growers and sellers. I would certainly expect option 2 to be most feasible. And that's where some real money could be made. Big tobacco may not only look into acquiring cultivation businesses but they could sniff around vaporizer and atomizer companies as well. Big pharma would definitely look into the developing new THC and CBD based drugs by acquiring reputable growops. And the liquor industry could possibly acquire certain brands like Dixie (I think Tripp has even alluded to selling the brand if the price is right).
As to your other post about why spend $40 for some cannabis at a store instead of getting from $30 from your neighbor, here's my response:
Your neighbor probably doesn't have 10 different strains of flower along with edibles, sodas, concentrates or other products. Your neighbor also does not have a supply of different quality grades of cannabis or forms of indica and sativa. Additionally, most clubs have price ranges of cheap to expensive, so their prices are probably way better than your neighbor. Also, there the whole legality issue of buying on the black market opposed to at a licensed dispensary.
DTC, Some Speculation for Your Questions
Yes, when marijuana is legalized, the methods of purchase will most certainly change and as medical/recreational legalization has already done so. I used to grow and have plenty of off market sources for flowers but I still go to dispensaries here in LA. The main reason I frequent the shops is to get candies, edibles, concentrates and other non-flower products. The majority of "street dealers" sell crap. They don't know the strain, the type (indica/sativa), the grower. And it is still illegal to buy black market weed, so why risk the potential legal consequences when the same thing can be accomplished legally. Of course the black market still exists in Colorado but again, that's an even more idiotic risk.
As to your question about "these companies" profiting from rescheduling....AB-SO-F*$KING-LUTELT! Right now the Controlled Substance Act makes it a crime to profit from drug related activity. Therefore, many of these companies are keeping THC revenues at arms length or avoiding them entirely in an effort to remain compliant. I just wrote a paragraph about my past involvement in the cannabis trade back in NY and another anecdote about a friend who grows medical cannabis in NorCal but thought better of disclosing so much information. Regardless, the point I wanted to make was the income from growing is truly astounding. From 60 plants on a 3 month cycle, I was making about $15k/month after payouts. My NorCal friend is doing about $700k profit/year and the operation is expanding.
Now imagine what happens when the ERBB and USEI sets up a commercial growop in Denver. That's large scale commercial growing. And they are opening a dispensary as well so they have vertically integrated the business from seed to sale.
Of course, people will still buy from dealers just like how some people still get bootlegged liquor but that will not be the norm. The average Joe doesn't need to find a dealer or maintain a relationship or risk legal action to get marijuana.
I wouldn't say you are off base. You clearly are market savvy and have a strong financial acumen but I think you may not have a complete grasp on the existing and past cannabis industry. The annual black market for cannabis is estimated between $20-100b. Sure that's a huge swing but it's hard to pin down numbers considering black market players don't report earnings. But one telling stat is this;
For the past decade, despite being illegal, California's number one cash crop has been marijuana, dwarfing the citrus, vegetable and all other markets.
People will get their cannabis from Walmart, dispensaries, dealers and grow their own. The market is just that big. But I have no doubt a handful of companies will make enormous amounts of money from cannabis.
Need a EOD Rally to Prevent Technical Breakdown
ERBB has already technically broken down from the .11 high but the chart is setting up a real knockout punch with a bearish engulfing candlestick from today's action. If ERBB closes below .031 that fat red bearish engulfing candlestick could be treated as a serious sell indicator, sending ERBB down to the .015 gap in a heartbeat.
I realize penny stocks don't necessarily obey technical patterns as consistently as equities on more reputable markets but nevertheless a candlestick like the one forming today sucks from a technical perspective.
On a better note, if ERBB does dip to the .015 gap, I'm shoving about $25k into it. This is getting to be absurd. ERBB is firing on all cylinders. Amazing new business developments. A grow facility and dispensary! Sweet! ERBB shareholders will now be part owners of a commercial grow op and pot shop! Again, SWEET! Cultivation systems with Jurassic Water, distribution systems with Zazzz and a dispensary, Zazzz vapor pens......
SEED TO SALE and now TO SMOKE! That is how deeply embedded into the MJ industry ERBB has positioned itself. That sort of vertical integration is spectacular!
I noticed yesterday the certain posters who were once diehard bulls have flipped and are bashing. In particular one former bull was questioning the $1.7m Jurassic Water System order. Look ERBB's officers know that every regulatory body is looking for a reason to come down on cannabis companies. At an MJ conference in NYC another MJ company's executive discussed that the SEC is now requiring MJ companies to show evidence of their business being conducted, especially regarding PRs. This includes showing contracts, deal memos and backup paperwork to support any developments.
It's always darkest before dawn.
And that's my one post for the day.
Oh Tex No Need to Be Sour
Weren't you the one asking me to "come back" the next day after declaring I was short going into earning? I assume you wanted me back because you expect FB to be at 70 after reporting and wanted to talk trash. And now after I made a tidy profit, here you are. Bottom line is I have made good money shorting FB with a 2 for 3 average on succes v failure.
I'll let you know when I establish a short position again.
I will say the WhatApp move has potential to be a money maker. If nothing else, WhatApp could force mobile and wireless Internet providers lower their cost. I'm not going to sign up for FB just because of WhatsApp and will happily just give my money to my current cell and wireless providers but at least FB has a chance to actually make direct revenues from customers.
Cannabis Rescheduling Bill Introduced
Spread the word. Big changes coming soon than I expected. Insanely spectacular news!
http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/video/12690042/marijuana-bill-to-change-schedule-class-is-introduced.html?cm_ven=YAHOOV&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA&s=1
I Would Be Careful Following Anyone's "Calls"
Here in lies the problem;
Say someone posts about 10 "calls." Not everyone will be a success, so that alone decreases your odds. Assuming you were lucky enough to pick the winners, then you also have to extended that luck to the timing of selling. And in the MJ penny market, there is the added risk of failure or worse, SEC intervention that can instantly make a loser out of a winner, such as PHOT.
DTC clearly knows the market pretty well. I don't personally read his posts because there is nothing for me to learn and I do my own dd but DTC is one of the few, credible players here unlike the "professionals" who have made the worst calls to date. Greens I'm still a little annoyed you deleted my recent post about AB. Those new to the sector need to be aware of the horror that is that guy. Love the Callaway X Hot too tho. I have the X Hot 3 wood and don't even have a driver in the back cause I can cut that thing 300 yards off the tee and about 280 from the fairway.
Good Riddance to Weak Hands and Weak Minds
Omfg the 400m share guy is HILARIOUS! And his 10 friends with 50m who are going to dump with him! Pure comedy. According to those lies, that "group" allegedly holds roughly 1b shares, about 1/3 of ERBBs outstanding shares.
I am not surprised by the weak hands and minds that play here in the penny sector. The general lack of knowledge and willingness to prove ignorance on message boards provides a lot of laughter during the good times and the bad.
There is a lot of great information here but a wealth of bad stuff too. You can pretty much dismiss anyone who goes from being staunch bull when the stock is at the highs to a grizzly bear when the stock is low. That's not how it works. Smart bulls are bullish at the lows and bearish near the highs. There are several ERBB board posters who were screaming buy and calling for $1 when ERBB was at .10, yet those same individuals are back telling folks to dump now that ERBB is at .03. That pretty much says it all.
Consistency and lack of emotion is what makes the information worthy. All the other stuff is just noise.
For those who are getting squeamish, get out. You have no business playing in the markets and your money would be better spent elsewhere. For those who can handle drastic swings, put your money to work.
I'm still not convinced that the MJ sector will break the Q2 thru Q4 Selloff cycle after the typical Q1 pop. Although this year's Q1 pop was exacerbated by the Colorado legalization, the sell off pattern of the past years seems to be in full swing. Of course 2014 is a wee bit different due to 2 states fully legalizing cannabis use, so who knows.
What I do know is that the publicly traded cannabis market is only going to grow. My sentiments regarding ERBB have changed in the past month and it has nothing to do with share price, nor have those sentiments soured. I am more confident today than I have ever been because Tranzbyte is bringing products to market and the company officers are executing on what were previously just prospects. The Zazzz machine has arrived. Vapor pens are about to be released. The new Jurassic Water System is already selling.
I am shocked that people were encouraging others to buy when ERBB was above .05 and Zazzz was just a long undelivered promise and Jurassic Water Systems were unknown but now that ERBB has dipped to a 3 month low, those same people are calling to sell. Poor trading at best but also maybe more sinister motives.......
Watch your step
Funny, I Posted About That 2 Weeks Ago
I visited some friends up in NorCal, techies, one in Palo Alto and another in Marin, both currently and purposefully unemployed without a need for income after making big bills in Silicon Valley. They mentioned the recent rumblings about SV money sniffing around the marijuana industry. I can't really discuss details but I would not be surprised by an acquisition or large investment from venture capital in the near future.
I also had an interesting talk with the owner of a boutique ad agency who I have worked with on major TV commercials/campaigns. Certain MJ companies have been approaching some large marketing and PR firms for professional representation. We didn't get into much detail other than to set up a dinner when he is in LA next this May.
DrMerlot I don't have PM but I'll try to get back to you tomorrow. TTDZ is interesting with the former Pink Dot guy at the helm. VGPR and PMRS are some really new players with little info about the companies. Their business plans are interesting and charts are part of the MJ boom but I'll have to look a little deeper before giving a better opinion.
I Hope That Bounce Comes Too
Selling now is kind of pointless unless you just have to get out. My number one recommendation here is not to trade or invest with these MJ plays using margin. That's a total weiner shrinker when things go south. There is always a possibility of a total loss and losing money you don't have is a traders death.
If you plan to get out on the next bounce,stick to your guns and remember the horrible feelings you are experiencing right now. Don't get caught holding because things start looking better. If you can stand to stay in, do it but if not, remember this time because it will happen again. ERBB went from .002 to .01 in a blink. But it then went from .01 to .02 and pulled back to .01, followed by a jump to .06 then back to .03, then to .11 and back to .025 today. Timing all those pops would have been difficult. It was far easier to buy and hold, taking profits at key points.
With ERBB I got in with a small position at .01 a few years ago only to watch it bleed into triple zeros. Instead of selling or getting scared I went on a buying spree and loaded as much as I could. The situation isn't much different from today and I'm getting itchy to buy again but have no need to chase.
To use an analog before I head to the gym:
Everyone wants instant gratification. People workout hard for 1 month and expect to be ripped but the improvements are only minor. 2 months go by, results but again not enough. Then they start turning to steroids and other means of speeding up the process which does more damage than good.
Be the turtle, slow and steady or be the rabbit, fast and furious but don't be the chicken, frightful and a marked as prey
Major Technical Bounce Today
I'm not in front of real time charts right now but ERBB snapped off the 200 day SMA pretty hard. A nice hammer could be the start of a new bottom. Like I said, now is the time to buy when others are selling due to panic, disgust and fear.
Here Is What I've Got Going On
I don't want to give out ticker picks and steer your boat without having a good knowledge of you financial situation. That's where dirty things hit fans and this is a message board not a financial institution's office.
Here is a basic overview of my MJ portfolio after I trimmed some fat:
ERBB
The company is releasing products, actual confirmed products. The products include;
A Zazzz branded vapor pen made by The Vapor Group
The Zazzz vending machine release earlier in the month (still a few weeks of beta testing and final legal approvals before it's online at the first location but more locations have been announced with plenty more to come).
Jurrasic Water System, of which a preorder of 100 units worth $1.7m is in the works.
OneBode International health supplements with spokesperson Steve Nash (NBA superstar)
I have bought clothing from the American Green website and will be buying several Zazzz brand vapor pens when available next week. ERBBs COO Stephen Shearin has taken the reigns and has Tranzbyte galloping along. If the company released the recent PRs when the MJ market was humming,mi think it could have realistically hit .20pps.
MJNA
Oldie but goodie. Products galore. Marketing galore. MJNA has a lot of obstacles to overcome but it is operating at a strong level. Also MJNA has a substantial holding in CANV. At one point MJNA's holdings in CANV were worth even more than MJNA's market cap. That's some fuzzy math!
VAPE
I just got into this one mostly to get some exposure to a low float, product oriented MJ company. VAPE isn't releasing PRs about involvement in marijuana sales but they still focus on products related to MJ. I'm still a little mixed about the company and have yet to hear back from the CEO about a meeting here in LA. I've been buying VAPE recently in the 3s and nibbled a little today at 2.75 but am waiting for 1.5 before I really start hoarding.
TRTC
I've been nibbling here but am not totally committed. TRTC is a very real company and more than just an MJ play.
FITX
I like it but I'm not sold and have not done enough research there. I looked at FITX too late and never really bothered to get in because I had so much money tied up elsewhere.
*edit
Oh yeah got some LATF and SKTO. Total stinkers but I like the exposure to cannabis. LATF is opening a doctors office in LA (supposedly) and has a decent non-MJ based business (supposedly). SKTO is advertising on the Internet and claims to have outrageous revenues that are mostly uncollected so I don't expect much here.
Those are the companies I am looking at or am vested in. ERBB is the biggest position I have as I got in around .002 with profit taking at .03, .07 and .105. Today I actually bought a little more ERBB at .0275 (wished I waited a few more hours but I had stuff to do this am and threw in a bid as ERBB dropped). I cleared out all my MJNA (once my largest position unseated by ERBB) holdings from .02, selling a bunch from .25-.45 but got back in there recently at .18. VAPE like is said is a new position as is TRTC. I may get into FITX but I don't have any plans yet.
Right now, I'm looking to reinvest profits from my MJ plays and a well timed put option short on FaceBook that I posted about. But I am trying to be cautious in respect to that cycle I referred to so I can buy later in the year. If I'm too late and the MJ market takes off due to Washington state, 2014 mid-term elections or some other positive developments, I'll be ready
DrMerlot Keep This In Mind
I can totally appreciate your risk aversion but keep in mind that good investors buy when there's blood in the street. I can't tell you how many times I've seen this before with @APL. Since 2003 the stock went from 20 to 86 then back down to 47 then up to 125 and back to 64 then up to 200 and back to 78 then up to 364 and back to 163 then up to 720 and back to 383.
During all those pullbacks diehard @APL longs sold out only to later complain about being duped out of their holdings.
Obviously these penny stocks are a different beast and there is a far greater risk of companies being shut down. That is why I only recommend trading or investing in these MJ stocks with discretionary capital that you can afford to lose.
The SEC Got What They Wanted
FINRA tried to come out with their own warning a few months ago but that outfits is such a joke people just laughed off their warnings. Finally the SEC stepped in with a completely bogus halt on PHOT. I'm sorry but who halts a stock for 2 weeks? Even by government bureaucracy standards that move was silliness. But it did accomplish the goal of putting the brakes on the MJ industry. I'm partial to all sorts of theories why this action was taken,none of which have "protecting investors" as the SEC's main motivation.
Blood is running in the streets. It's a good time to be cash rich.
The Yearly MJ Cycle
I can't PM but here is my answer to questions about this cyclical downtrend of the MJ markets;
For three years now the MJ markets have popped in Q1 and sold off Q2-4.
So far 2014 has not been an exception. While the Q1 pop was drastically exacerbated by the Colorado legalization, the sell off has been equally as steep, also exacerbated by the SEC halt of PHOT and CANN.
Sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but the cycle usually lasts until December. November and December is when I really start establishing my positions (check my post on the Tranzbyte board from Nov 2013 titled "I'm Giving ERBB Until Q2).
However, I still hold on to the belief that 2014 is different. I'm mean 2 states have legalized cannabis for recreational use! That's insane. That's 80 years of institutional propaganda being cast aside. The black market for marijuana is absolutely enormous and so far, Colorado has provided a shining example of how that market can be successfully brought to the light. Right now 13 new states have some sort of MJ legalization initiatives on their ballots for the mid-terms in November. That would bring the total to 35 states, more than half the country.
Right now many of these public MJ stocks have an enormous jump on any of the traditional drug, alcohol or tobacco companies. I expect over the next year or so we will be seeing some major acquisitions. Big MO (Phillip Morris) is well aware of the atomizer / eCig market eating into the traditional smoking product revenues. Don't think Pfizer, Merck and big pharma players aren't aware of the medical properties of cannabis. And the liquor industry will likely just look into acquisitions rather than continue to spend money supporting anti-MJ lobbies in order to outlaw competition.
Extra Crappy with a Side of Anger
Man people are pissed! Reading these boards is hilarious. Reminds me of the numerous @APL pullbacks of the years since 2003 when I bought my first shares.
As long as people understand this is part of a yearly cycle with MJ stocks, then maybe this plunge wouldn't be so panic inducing. For the past 3 years the MJ market has done this. Back in Nov/Dec 2011 I got into CBIS. By Q1 CBIS shot up over 1000% in a few days. I sold 2/3 and held the rest thinking it would go to a dollar. It didn't. Instead it sold off.
Later that year I rolled some of the profits into MJNA and ERBB. By the following Q1, MJNA was up nearly 2000%. Again I sold, this time 1/3 but expected MJNA to go to a dollar. It didn't and sold off the rest of the year. By then I started seeing a pattern.
Then last November, I bought a massive chunk of ERBB below .002. The following Q1 ERBB popped over 5000%, I sold 1/3 but this time I was not expecting a dollar. At least not any time soon.
See the pattern here?
Cyclical. Not because all MJ stocks are scams. Not because of a Seeking Alpha article. Not because of "shorts" or market bogeymen. But because this is a cycle.
Some time this cycle will be broken. Maybe it's 2014.
Remember this is the penny stock markets. The weakest of hands hold cards in this market and the lowest form of traders scalp these stocks. Wild swings are just part of the game. I've only traded pennies for 3 years after finding out about publicly traded MJ stocks and I wouldn't dare slum the penny stock arena otherwise.
Oops Did I Just Buy More ERBB?
Had to do it. Got a fill at .0275
I fully expect ERBB to close the .015 gap where I will start smashing the bid. This downward spiral is part of the typical MJ stocks cycle that has repeated over the past few years; big pop in Q1 followed by a sell of for the rest of the year. I sincerely thought 2014 was different with all the amazing developments but the cycle has yet to be broken. I posted more detailed thoughts here:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=101212156
Right now this sector is a real stinker. Even with the Washington legalization only a month away and mid-term elections where 13 new states have some form of legalization on the ballots, I'm skeptical that we will see anything exciting.
However, I did speak with Stephen yesterday and the Zazzz vaporizer pen is due out on the next few days.
Oops Did I Just Buy More ERBB?
Had to do it. Got a fill at .0275
I fully expect ERBB to close the .015 gap where I will start smashing the bid. This downward spiral is part of the typical MJ stocks cycle that has repeated over the past few years; big pop in Q1 followed by a sell of for the rest of the year. I sincerely thought 2014 was different with all the amazing developments but the cycle has yet to be broken. I posted more detailed thoughts here:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=101212156
Right now this sector is a real stinker. Even with the Washington legalization only a month away and mid-term elections where 13 new states have some form of legalization on the ballots, I'm skeptical that we will see anything exciting.
However, I did speak with Stephen yesterday and the Zazzz vaporizer pen is due out on the next few days.
And How Does a Free Service Generate Revenue?
Look I'm not here to bash. Trust me folks, I'm an @APL shareholder from 2003. I also used to post on the Yahoo boards back then and endured some harshness to say the least, so I get the disdain but I'm trying to raise logical points, unlike the unfounded lies that were/are posted about Apple (Jobs "selling" 1/2 his position in 2005 when he was really retiring shares for tax purposes, iPod being a "fad" that generated billions in profit and created a halo effect to sell other products, among some of the less outrageous but still stupid claims from back in the day).
I'm trying to be objective with FB.
Where does this "biggest telecom company" come from with a free messaging service like WhatsApp? There's ten other WhatsApp apps, zero proprietary technology, and it's free. FB can't charge a dime for WhatsApp because just like FaceBook, customers will just bail the second they get charged for something that has been free for years.
Advertising on WhatsApp? Yeah right!
And then there's the competitors.....Apple being one.....Google....and the worst of all AT&T, Verizon and the already established telecoms who are also the providers of the web or cell service.
Maybe the drone beaming Internet isn't such a bad idea but who knows how realistic that will be. That's some serious R&D to get that project off the ground.
At least buying WhatsApp makes for 1 less competitor in a nasty telecom market.
ERBB: Zazzz Branded Vaporizer to Be Released Soon
https://mobile.twitter.com/American__Green/status/460861790813822977/photo/1
All Great Points DrMerlot
I emphatically agree with all that you wrote. I think I did mention that 2014 "should" be different in my opinion and clearly yours as well. Colorado legalization, Washington legalization, 2014 mid-term elections with some form of legalization measures in 13 new states....as you mentioned FDA approvals...this is a different year.
Unfortunately, the patterns are repeating and the cycle of a sell off after March seems to be occurring again.
The PHOT suspension did wonders to kill all the great momentum developed in the first quarter but even companies with decent balance sheets, companies with excellent business prospects or even companies with new product offerings/revenues are being taken out behind the woodshed
The rescheduling issue is a sticky situation. I think the US Govt wants to observe the CO and WA as test markets before making any bold changes. In 2003 when California passed Prop 215 allowing for medical dispensaries, the state was not prepared for the explosion of shops across the region. I mean who could have possibly anticipated that cannabis would be so popular. After all, even when it was illegal it was only California's number one cash crop (sarcasm). Regardless, the state governing bodies had to scramble to keep up with the new developments and after seeing that, I would bet the Feds will take their time in a bureaucratic attempt to "get it right ther first time" (after 80+ years "getting it wrong").
Also, reversing their scheduling of cannabis is basically an admission that the federal government's hard line stance has been a miserable failure. That's always a hard pill for authorities to swallow and after decades of unjustly imprisoning and ruin the lives of millions (especially minorities), well that's just terribly hard to make good on.
I hope you're wrong. My heart tells me this industry will be enormous but my gut says we're still stuck In the cycle I mentioned. I have $15,000 left to spend and VAPE is where I'm parking it over the next few months.