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You can focus on Bitcoin...
That's fine, but I am old fashioned, and
I'm keeping an eye on the items which have been a store of value for thousands of years...
Gold and Silver.
On the same site of investing.com we can see
Silver just had a solid session, up over 1%
Even with the SPX futures down and the dollar slightly up.
A nice, bottoming, bounce back for Silver... On the hourly candles.
A good trader thinks about what's going to occur in the future.
The market tries to anticipate the perceived future 6 months out...
We have more and more bad economic signs.
We have the Fed already delaying QT, which eventually will put solid pressure back onto the banks and how stable their balance sheets are.
We have signs the rest of the world has been hoarding the precious metals.
We have Putin wanting payment in rubles for oil and gas,
We have Putin wanting to go back to having the ruble on the gold standard.
We have Europe with no solid plans on their supply needs when the weather starts cooling off and winter comes.
We don't have solid relations with China...
We have questions about debt default everywhere.
At some point, very soon, those that control the world and the fiat system, could really start to lose complete control of it all...
It would be soo easy here for China or Russia to make a chess move which would fracture the petrodollar system and launch the precious metals.
Not a bad idea to also watch that area...
If the sh!t hits the fan, and there's many ways it can... And most likely will, the precious metals may be one of the best buys, here and now.
At what point do real concerns
Come through about the entire global economy and
Structure of the fiat system...
We're going to see turbulence for a long time...
And maybe we'll finally see a run for the safety of the precious metals...
Maybe starting today.
GDP report tomorrow...
I'm sure it'll be completely glorious... Not.
GDP report tomorrow...
And it may cause selling after the first hour.
Does anyone expect a report that shines?
IF we hold the +15 area on
The SPX futures here, puts in the opening 30 minutes are a great move.
We're going to come down and touch the 380 mark before Wednesday close.
Especially with the macroeconomic environment
That's been established...
When will the citizens open their eyes and realize...
The motto of this administration is not
"We the People".
It's "Bleed the People".
I need to start watching individual charts,
Many of the leaders and the best, like
MSFT, NVDA, GOOG, etc...
I need to start watching for basing patterns.
I believe we're close to a significant bottom.
Here's an excellent example of how disgusted the common citizens are with the Dem's, with this admin, and with many things that have occurred during the past 18 months.
I'm putting this here because to post it on other boards, it'll get deleted.
We've seen this same charade, over and over again, from the left. They refuse to acknowledge their agenda.
I have thoughts and
Will get posts up this weekend...
I think many feel the economy is due for a heavy downturn... For years... And this will increase the number of deaths,
Causing a heavy toll on the insurance sector.
That's hilarious...
3 times now in the past 25 years the powers that be have created outrageous bubbles, through criminal actions...
Blatantly lying and hundreds should have been charged with the RICO Act, because they knew and it was an organized, arranged.
Go watch the movie The Big Short and tell me it wasn't an organized boom / bust scenario...
But the shorts are the unpatriotic criminals. LoL...
Shorting is a beautiful thing, about the most capitalistic action around. It's about recognized opportunity and taking an active approach when it knocks.
SCREW the passive investor who doesn't "mind their money" and has been gullible enough to fall for lies.
"Think long term" and ignore the ripples...
Just don't ever stop feeding the financial sector,
Says the glorified used car salesmen and carnival barkers.
3 day bounce coming,
But ultimately flat next week.
Or maybe finish next week at 374 area.
Second half of today the selling was weak and stagnant...
The Bears are tired and fat with gains, and would you want to carry shorts into the weekend?
We could get back to SPY 380, next week, but that's about the top before falling to 350 area during the next month, in about a month.
Big money has no intention or interest in buying yet.
We're very oversold here, but this admin has destroyed investors in 2022.
That's the cycle low time frame.
That will mark a significant bottom,
So many "gearing" for that area, because it would be a
50% retracement of the run, from the covid bottom to the top of 6 months ago, the Christmas top area...
The QQQ has already dropped more than that, and some solid buys are shaping up.
The powers that be could then produce a very profitable rally back to 405, into the election...
This will be helped by some signs that inflation has peaked, just due to the "natural economic cycle" of less demand and supply catching back up, but these inflated prices are here for a long time.
Anyway that's what I'm seeing, but not stubbornly tied to it...
Watching everyday, but good news will come.
Today I was thinking I need to watch for basing patterns now on some specific stocks and also want to find some high short interest stocks that could launch with the help of covering.
Well actually...
There's been a few of us, but many thoughts and
Posts get lost in the madness of this board.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=167911779
And I can go back to other January points, but it doesn't really matter...
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=167582240
In the second link, it links to the 2021 year in review...
That article now looks like it was written by someone who could see the future.
Gotta keep looking forward.
Nice... Good for you.
An easy 10% gain and it is looking to
Open at the 50 area.
Really tempted to grab GDX and/or SLV calls here
In the first hour...
They had bounced nicely on Friday and
That sector may see strength as a place of refuge.
Much of it depends back on the Dollar (UUP)
And Yen weakness of 2022.
So much overhead resistance now... Again...
Every bounce will be stifled.
Exactly... So much coming
That could create plenty of liquidation breaks...
Best to stay nimble and humble...
Wow... And as I post, the sniper shot report rings out and drops the market.
Charts looking ugly...
Tough to determine turning points,
And sometimes when the "uncertainty of the noise" gets too loud, it doesn't hurt to go back to monitoring a
"Baseline barometer" that has a constant impact on direction...
There's many charts that could be posted, from a few lists, including D Larew's.
My confusing note above is referring to the Dollar...
I'm going to start keeping a close eye on UUP here,
To see if it will give hints of direction and maybe be a pre-indicator.
The strong dollar has been crushing everything lately,
The equities and the metals. Going to keep an eye on it for topping signs. Watching it and the weakness of the Yen.
I agree...
The fundamental picture is horrible,
It hasn't improved in a year.
We all know the table is set here, for a drop back below 400 and down...
SPX futures down 21.
The question and uncertainty, and resulting lack of volume, and balancing we're seeing, is whether we go above 420 first, before the fall.
Wages aren't keeping up with inflation,
GDP isn't solid, no economic expansion occurring,
Rates rising, and stifling the velocity of money,
And on and on...
The lack of "commerce", and speed of money through the system, is the part that few talk about, but is just about the most crucial.
I will be watching to
Sell the calls during the first hour,
Depending on if we hold tthe gap up gains and climb,
Or how it acts...
Busy day
GLTA
Zero volume here...
VIX not climbing, shorts not pushing it down further...
Balancing and ready to climb.
Bad news factored in,
I'm thinking the SPY finishes above 413
I should have been out of the QQQ calls when it was above 308, now looking to double down.
Nice... And if you
Locked in gains, good job, good for you!
We agree there's probably always going to be some sort of
"Invisible hand", helping to support the markets.
I think the Fed's balance sheet may be at 10 trillion in a year,
If rates are 2 points higher.
There's no other way.
The ramifications of a SPY 250 on the 401k's, the pensions, etc...
Our country would become a third world country and the global leaders want control, but not a scene from Grapes of Wrath.
We all know we actually should have probably gone there 14 years ago, but...
Oh thank goodness the elite were soo benevolent... Ughh...
Not sure of the best site,
But what I use to watch many items is
Investing.com
Probably just because I have gotten familiar with it.
I'm not focused on the 5 or 15 minute candles with oil,
Like I am with the SPY, QQQ, IWM...
just thinking of the longer term movements, and thinking
This may not be a bad spot to start scaling into a XLE short position, to hold for 3 months...
When we start hearing the "experts" call for 10 a gallon gas, I know that is "crying wolf"...
The macro ramifications would destroy the entire economy for the US.
IMHO, this intraday support built during the last hour holds for the indexes.
Amazed at oil...
Watching XOP and XLE for tops.
We all know the macro cycles...
When it gets this high, demand starts to decline, etc...
So tempted to buy SLV calls, but such a manipulated arena
Bought QQQ calls here
June 8th 308's @ 3.23
And will watch to add
Thanks for the info,
And THANKS for the items you had previously sent...
Totally Appreciated.
Watching to see if we stall here,
IMHO, good setup, here and now, to buy puts...
The June 10th. 415's
A portion buy of position wanted,
One third of the position
https://investorshub.advfn.com/uimage/uploads/2022/6/2/vizkkimage.png
Low volume and it just keeps dropping as the day progresses.
If we stay above 414 the rest of the day, gotta bail...
If we fade, easy to hold overnight and look to add tomorrow or Monday... Adding double as game plan plays out.
Just trying to anticipate a top and keep risk low.
Always too busy with work to closely monitor.
But this plan could pay big if we fall back below 408.
Not sure what charts
You're looking at...
Whatever...
Most June sections of the past 8 years are flat or down.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/uimage/uploads/2022/6/2/ktewkimage.png
I want to learn more
About this system you have or follow...
Where can I get the information.
Is there a chart overlay, which shows the approximate date stamps. I would like to try to have a better date range for the projected high point.
Is this the same system, somewhat, that is used by Northam, on the CCI board.
I have seen some cycle information on YouTube....
Just curious
Thanks
Solid question...
Would you or anyone want to carry puts or a short position through the weekend?
So there's some buying fuel.
I closely checked the hourly chart and recently, getting a doji at the bottom has resulted in an upward swing of a day or two.
It was a cringeworthy day... Again...
The setup seemed perfect for consolidation and a break upward, and the Bulls failed.
Yep, one day at a time.
I bought QQQ calls late day... The 25th 292's...
I'm counting on bottom fishing and greed to help me find a profit. LOL
Solid double bottom potential -
It may not feel like it, but today was a victory for the longs -
Breadth improved, and all it takes is a bit of a spark here -
A gap up tomorrow and she'll run -
RSP and IWM noticeably stronger than the SPY and QQQ -
and if the FAMNG's can start leading - and find some greed -
buyers who are ready to take the chance....
We could easily see a 4 day rally, back to that 405+ area.
The longer term charts are really oversold here - can't go
much lower without some upward relief first.
Here's a channel update...
Many indicators saying oversold, but the solid bounces aren't holding.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/uimage/uploads/2022/5/19/nnwuqimage.png
Futures down, facing the facts.
Replying to my post from a week ago,
Yesterday the market again showed us, the big money is not buying yet, not here and not now.
See the chart I posted a few hours ago, after the close.
Here's my conclusion from a week ago,
"but the more I look, the more bearish I get.
I consider what the Fed has said, the debt levels everywhere, the inflation, the overhead resistance, the terrible consumer and investor sentiment, etc...
I have access to some very complex forecasting models and they are gloomy.
We have not bounced and there's been plenty of opportunities.
The big money is not buying... They are still selling into any strength that develops.
If we don't bounce and climb well tomorrow, I am getting to cash.
No way I want to be long in this market.
So many good investment advisors and models predicted we would fall to the 400 area of the SPY and find buying... Institutional buying...
It's not happening and I now feel we're going to see another leg down.
Another 10% drop down from here, to the SPY 350 area... By the Fourth of July.
A nimble trader can make great money this summer, by watching the trend closely and the indications are still showing more downside... Alot More."
You can't fight fashion, it's foolish to fight the trend.
Yesterday confirmed the sellers still have control.
We could easily see a liquidation break, up or down...
News and emotions are having their way with the market, but the trend is still down.
Again, the nimble trading is best here. No way should anyone be buying and holding anything, long or short here... Not yet.
Tomorrow's game plan...
Replying to myself, my pre-market post of this morning.
And if you check the time stamp, this was hours before the open,
when the SPY futures were only at -16
The fear started setting in even before the opening bell.
What a day -
Here's an update of the chart I posted this morning also.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/uimage/uploads/2022/5/18/dtllzQQQ_60.png
It did exactly what I thought -
This is from my other middle of the night, insomnia, pre-market post -
"Soo many know we haven't bottomed, and are at least looking for a retest, but hoping for a climb back above 415...
With their fingers on the sell button...
That can lead to another vicious down move, very quickly."
Going back to the QQQ chart -
I will be watching for a double bottom - IF that's where we head to - a QQQ bounce at 285-286 could be a self fulfilling prophecy. Shorts will cover -
So many will watch the chart for any support or upward move and it could bring BIG Buying.... I am already perplexed as to who would be the sellers below 290 - and that they haven't already bailed....
Pick out your favorite "darling stock" and watch for strength - not a bad idea to portion into it - if possible - to have some position built, in case it runs upward 2.5%.
IF this setup plays out, and IF we launch upward, it's about making money -
You won't care if you missed the bottom by a buck, when it's up 6 bucks.
This would be the 386 area of the SPY.
I agree - and
just had a feeling this morning - pre-market, that we may follow the same route -
we had a 3 / 4 day spike, but as soon as weakness came, the
selling would overwhelm....
And we'd see the waterfall - again...
Didn't expect this much - and now just not gonna think about bottom fishing -
You know - back to watching and waiting.
All the hourly charts are
Telling the same story, since the beginning of April...
Doesn't matter if we look at most of the sectors, the SPY, IWM, the QQQ, or the heavyweights.
Downward channels, rises back to key moving averages, and failure.
It's easy to see where we're at, here and now, and the overhead resistance gets worse.
The charts have climbed back up to previous support points.
Problem is also the SPY has some downside "catching up" to do, when compared to the QQQ and IWM.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/uimage/uploads/2022/5/18/csgxaimage.png
Has the forward story gotten better? Nope.
Has the Fed improved their prognosis? Nope.
In fact, signs show most of the population is still in denial of problems that will take years to solve... Still in denial of an ugly recession.
The key may end up being housing, and at what point do we see home prices and valuations drop...
Nothing will shut off consumer spending more than the realization that they're underwater in home values, compared to loan amount.
We'll see how it plays out. Futures not looking good here.
Yes, I know.... Thanks.
And I am with you, in fact, here's a post of mine from the very top, and recognizing the noise.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=167310377
That noise is still at 120 decibels, and hasn't significantly diminished. Soo many know we haven't bottomed, and are at least looking for a retest, but hoping for a climb back above 415... With their fingers on the sell button...
That can lead to another vicious down move, very quickly.
All we can do is take it candle by candle...
Today will be a good test...
So much overhead resistance... Can the buying strength quiet the fear and continue to drive the VIX down...
Man... Wow....
Thanks, and unreal....
Browsing down through the posts in the second link -
Some amazing stats -
And I thought I was bearish.... Whoa.
We're STILL soo overvalued here -
Forget about the standard p/e comparisons -
I am talking about how ugly the forward picture is -
with all the debt, with inflation -
talk about us having the front seat to the collapse -
which has already started....
Soo many just don't realize.
I still go back to this article, and the Valuations seciton -
and I am amazed -
https://peakprosperity.com/2021-year-in-review-crisis-of-authority-and-the-age-of-narratives-part-1/#valuations
Valuations
Today the P/E ratio of the market is in the top few percent of the historical range and the economy is in the worst few percent. This is completely without precedent. It is a privilege as a market historian to experience a major stock bubble once again.
~ Jeremy Grantham
People always ask me what is going on in the markets. It is simple. Greatest Speculative Bubble of All Time in All Things. By two orders of magnitude. #FlyingPigs360
~ Michael Burry
It’s a terrible time for equity investing. It’s the worst time for this generation. It’s very, very similar to 2007…[yet] equity and bond valuations are far more stretched today.
~ Mark Spitznagel, Universa Investments
Watching and waiting
To see what follow through we get on the gap up.
If we can find a way to get near the 4200, in the next couple of days,
We'll hit solid overhead resistance...
Looks like it would be a classic neckline check.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/uimage/uploads/2022/5/17/unmjfimage.png
And Good Catch on the volume -
I spotted that we were only halfway to the ave. daily volume....
an hour before the close and it was obvious,
"That's not good."
I agree with hunterj20 here -
It wouldn't surprise me if we see an immediate retest of 395 or 393.
And if we go there, fear climbs, and we could go right back below 390
The techs (the QQQ) was
the weakest of the herd, by far.....
NOT a good sign, especially since that's where the heavyweights live -
and they're the ones lagging.
AAPL down 1%
GOOG down 1.5%
AMZN down 2%
INTC down 1%
MSFT flat.....
and of course TSLA down almost 6% -
such a genius move to add it when they did... ugghh...
As long as they can't find a spark, you could have 100 other constituents green and the SPY will still "act lazy"....
That last hour candle took the wind out of some sails, again...
Still plenty of valuation problems - still many debt and consumer confidence / spending problems -
We gots problems and that starts with P and that stands for Powell.
No one seeing "greatness" immediately ahead -
They can hope all they want on CNBC, and talk about a "better second half" of 2022, but the prognosis is not stellar.
I've said it 47 times also - I am concerned about the overhead resistance, being a constant ceiling, until another 10% down. Even 420 seems far away here.
GLTA
Speaking of "intimidating individuals"...
Speaking of unconstitutional acts...
I'm sure you're referring to this madness.
https://dailycaller.com/2022/05/13/kiel-school-district-sues-sexual-harassment-wrong-pronouns/
All in all, it comes back to what's become obvious...
The leftists who come up with this feces usually are full of displaced anger... Usually have low self esteem... Usually are really messed up psychologically.
It's obvious they're compensating... They think by "going the extra mile" with the pronoun madness, and other items, that they are proving how great of an individual they are, when in actuality, they know how incomplete and scattered their existence is.
They are brainwashed soldiers, who think 75% of the nation thinks like them...
When actually, it's about 5%... And the nation IS SICK AND TIRED of their nonsense.
that was your 30,000 post
on the Ihub site..... WOW.
Have a great weekend, all....
Good job - Check your profile -
Your next post is # 30,000
Make it count, LOL...
Good calls this week -
Proper approach to this market - being tentative -
Can't be reckless, when there's whitecaps.
And easier to "relax" over the weekend -
and view the charts without bias - if you're heavy in cash.