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TECO Acc/Dis Chart over last Quarter
Have not seen it. Do you mind posting it?
Seems like the insiders are geared up for a massive sell off, no volume though so they will have to wait just like everybody else to dump after the pump.
Has anyone taken a peak at the ACC/DIS chart over the last quarter.
Seems like a lot of interest has packed up and left.
TECO in BIG trouble ?
No, they've been lying to themselves... I think that TECO management has finally realized that their Belize Concessions are fruitless & their Texas ventures are insignificant. Judging from what I have learned about the way TECO does business, I would be willing to bet that they are in the process of shopping around for a new asset (lease/production/working interest/etc.) of some sort that they can use as a means of generating Press Releases to keep their share price aloft.
TECO Shareholders can rest easy knowing that knowing that some sort of news is on the way...
10-20 BOPD does not justify a $35MM market cap...
Well Said.
What you talkin' about Willis?
This is the equivalent of saying 85.9% more of a penny is .0185 which equates .02 or 2 cents. Insignificant and embarrassing for a public company (TECO) with several wells.
476 Barrels per month or 476/30 = 15.86 barrels per day for several high maintenance wells is embarrassing. If this were a mommy and daddy single well in a backyard than ok but it's not.
FACT: TECO's Texas oil production increased 85.9% from January to February
Monthly Production for last 3 months (in bbls):
December: 180
January: 256
February: 476
Obviously, there is still a ways to go, but this ship is headed in the right direction.
Verify the #'s for yourself at this link.
Under the "Production by Filing Operator" section, select "Oil Lease" and enter the Operator Number: 120104.
Belize status
I just responded to your last post witch indicated that you have posted a portion of an 8K and not the whole thing. The truth is they do have the funds which they reported they had on hand and they PR'd they had acquired the position! The 8k can not report production numbers that are not confirmed yet! It is a disclosure to inform investors of potential risks vs rewards!
Seems like they now realize Belize was a major OH-OH. Please see supporting link below.
In January 2012, Treaty Belize Energy (TBE) reported that it had drilled its initial well near Independence Village, Belize, located adjacent to the Port of Big Creek in the Stann Creek District, and that oil in commercial quantities had been detected..... There is no assurance that this well will produce oil and/or gas..... A second, deeper well on the lease owned by TBE is planned for an as-yet determined date. There is no assurance that the second well will produce oil and/or gas.
We do not currently possess sufficient capital with which to make the further investments described above and there is no assurance that we will be able to obtain such needed capital.
http://biz.yahoo.com/e/120221/afse.ob8-k.html
AFSE does not possess sufficient capital to invest (In TECO)
Dean Sukowatey President/CEO AFSE owns 80% os his company's common stock!
1) He would not dump more money into a pud!
2)You are quoting an 8K that does not have official production numbers yet. Of course it can't say it will produce, although it indicates 60bpd which even with that number times 80 to 100 well=6,000bpd and those are very those conservative numbers!
3)Confirmation and production numbers are coming and the big money knows it!
Dean Sukowatey, President and CEO of AllEnergy Corporation, stated, "We are extremely pleased to have completed the acquisition of this interest in Belize and to have the option to acquire an additional interest in 1 million acres. The amount of potential here is tremendous and we look forward to developing this prospect along with our partners in Belize."
We do not currently possess sufficient capital with which to make the further investments described above and there is no assurance that we will be able to obtain such needed capital.
AFSE "There is no assurance that this well will produce oil and/or gas"
1) Belize Government said the TECO oil claim is false.
2) AFSE concludes there is no assurance of any oil.
3) TECO to date has not providing any 3rd party verification. Why? because there is none. It was a big OOPS or it had other intent behind it.
The only one who claims it isn't false is TECO; the entity benefiting from OPM (others people money).
hmmmm......
http://biz.yahoo.com/e/120221/afse.ob8-k.html
In January 2012, Treaty Belize Energy (TBE) reported that it had drilled its initial well near Independence Village, Belize, located adjacent to the Port of Big Creek in the Stann Creek District, and that oil in commercial quantities had been detected. The defined producing zone is between 1,235 and 1,290 feet. The level of initial production from this well is expected to be approximately 60 barrels per day. There is no assurance that this well will produce oil and/or gas in such quantities as would benefit our company. That is, production from this well may never result in cash distributions to us. A second, deeper well on the lease owned by TBE is planned for an as-yet determined date. There is no assurance that the second well will produce oil and/or gas.
We do not currently possess sufficient capital with which to make the further investments described above and there is no assurance that we will be able to obtain such needed capital.
AFSE (Treaty's Belizean funder) concludes "There is no assurance that this ( Belize ) well will produce oil and/or gas"
On September 12, 2011, we ( ASFE ) entered into a Share Purchase Agreement with Treaty Energy Corporation. Under this agreement, (A) we ( AFSE ) purchased 400 Class A Voting shares of Treaty Belize Energy, LTD ("TBE"), which shares represent 4% of such class of shares; (B) we paid $100,000 in cash for such shares; and (C) we have anti-dilution protection. We also hold an option to purchase additional shares up to10% of TBE, at a total cost of approximately $500,000. In addition, we hold an option to purchase up to 15% ownership of Paradise Energy, LTD for up to one Year at a cost of $360,000, $25,000 of which has been paid by us as a deposit.
In January 2012, Treaty Belize Energy (TBE) reported that it had drilled its initial well near Independence Village, Belize, located adjacent to the Port of Big Creek in the Stann Creek District, and that oil in commercial quantities had been detected. The defined producing zone is between 1,235 and 1,290 feet. The level of initial production from this well is expected to be approximately 60 barrels per day. There is no assurance that this well will produce oil and/or gas in such quantities as would benefit our company. That is, production from this well may never result in cash distributions to us. A second, deeper well on the lease owned by TBE is planned for an as-yet determined date. There is no assurance that the second well will produce oil and/or gas.
We do not currently possess sufficient capital with which to make the further investments described above and there is no assurance that we will be able to obtain such needed capital.
So the hole has been cased and cemented to TD (1300 +\-)?
Is this confirmed or speculative?
Have TECO's PR's been Restricted in the United States too or Just Belize?
TECO INDEPENDENT CLAIMS NOW RESTRICTED IN BELIZE
Andrew Reid, chief executive of the New Orleans and Houston-based explorer, told Upstream he was not able to comment about the company’s exploration activities in Belize, in a 50/50 joint venture with Princess Petroleum, owners of Belize’s Princess Casino.
He would only say that “in the future we must have Government of Belize and Princess Petroleum approval prior to issuing any statements”.
Porosity means little
Like I said, bad porosity in my opinion. Belize was a massive promotion, even trumping the Kansas promotion that they relied so heavily on a while back.
TECO Trading: Buy and Sell prices (based on one person's perspective.)
5.5 cents holds
The action on TECO has been very light and I've been focusing my attention on playing the big board where there are a lot of stocks that have been giving me lots of play on the short side this week.
Nonetheless I saw that TECO peeked below the 5.5 cent area intraday only to close back above it. All the stuff I talked about in my last analytical post (investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=71878265) still applies. If this come down to under a nickel I am going to load more shares. However, 5.5 cents is holding.
Price is trading into the 20 DMA, which is not very good support right now because it rose into price so I would ignore that support level and only focus on 5.5 cents, a nickel, and then the 200 DMA.
Yes, your right.
The public however cannot short as verified by your brokers.
Shorting OTC or penny stocks not allowed.
Please allow me to educate you on a penny stock such as TECO.
Unfortunately shorting penny stocks or OTC stocks are not allowed. Call your brokers to hear this from them. Shorting stocks and buying stocks is good hedging and trading but again Shorting penny stocks is not allowed.
Otherwise Pump and dump companies would pump and short. They can't so they are simply called pump and dump.
Mess with Texas, Don't with the SEC
First of all there's a difference between filing a compliant against a company and the company as you guys say "lieing with facts to the SEC" as you guys say. The SEC would stop the trading because there is falsified information.
VALIDATED VERSUS OPINION TECO
You're posts have no validated data to support your claims. SO yes it seems as the data you present is just your opinion.
TECO RISK versus REWARD today Fri, Feb 10, 2012?
What was the risk/reward the oil strike claim before versus now in relation to the PPS?
New Risk has emerged with no reward expect a declining production:
1) New Significant Pending litigation recently surfaced (more risk)
2) Belize is NOT in good relations with TECO anymore- how far can Belize take this? (More risk)
3) Company press releases have lost shareholder confidence and reliability (more risk)
4) No American company has yet to release What the Belizeans released entitled " Treaty Energy's Oil Claim Bogus"
http://www.7newsbelize.com/sstory.php?nid=21631. This would be catastrophic to the PPS and News LOVES THESE STORIES (HIGH RISK)
5) Fracing will be met with serious opposition. Belize has never had this done before and these are shallow depths. This poses risk to Belize's only water supply. (more risk)
6) Major company press releases caused many investors to come in at .08 through .013. Large scale press releases of this magnitude have drawn attention. There are lots of unhappy investors. (more risk)
7) There is a significant likelyhood that the SEC is now investigating because of the magnitude of what took place last week. In fact they may have just entered this board room ( want to discuss risk? Ever seen what happens when an SEC decides to act? No notice. Frozen shares. Google it.) (Enormous Risk)
8) Belize Oil "strike" most likely absolutely nothing or insignificant. A dry hole would cause irrevocable and permanent damage to TECO (more risk)
9) Kansas and Tennessee "deals" have vanished and have left some angry shareholders (risk)
10) Recent photo's emerged showing an abandoned Treaty office in Belize? Why? Isn't this important shareholders news? Kind of significant to move or abandon a company headquarters, yes? Where is the Kansas office? Abandoned also?
11) December Sales came out. Oil sales are on the decline. Yikes. What happened to the 1000 BPD forecast. Only 6 BPD!? Solvency of company?
The price was around .05 before all these new risk factors appeared. Thus .05x is still a GREAT time to take some profit/loss. Come back in when there is something more tangible and less risk, (regardless of pps).
What if there is no next week? Google what the SEC can do in these situations.
A real strike in Belize would help offset some of these. However let's be real. No 3rd party analysts. Belize says there is no oil. TECO has failed thus far to support any claims of having any producible oil whatsoever.. Why?
How many times does someone cry wolf before it loses validity?
TECO TEXAS TEA = 6 Barrels Per Day
180 barrels per month/ 30 days equal 6 BPD (barrels per day)?
What happened to 1000 BPD or 30,000 Barrels per month?
Surprised? Declining production, Declining sales, and more expenses in Belize... Expect PPS to follow...
Treaty Energy or TECO Status?
Should's unfortunately are not very unreliable.
Patterns of people/companies are much more reliable. Especially to help predict the future. Going by the pattern of this company....They will most likely spend more money than they bring in. That is if you go by the facts and not the press releases and boards.
However, If you go by the boards and press releases than this company:
1) Hit a 6,000,000 field at shallow depth in Belize,
2) produce 30,000 Barrels of oil per month (1,000 Barrel per day),
3) is revered and worshiped in Belize and up for the Noble Peace Prize
4) currently having a honeymoon with their happy partner Princess petroleum. Princess loves TECO'S transparency.
Oh, and the abandoned office pictures that just surfaced from Treaty's Belize office? It's because TECO bought Guatemala and is currently living in the White House with Obama with Newt Gingrich serving them breakfast every day.
Yes. I agree.
Finally ! Straight from the horses
Mouth
Great due diligence! TECO press releases have lost all credibility.
All news needs to be verified. TECO's, this boards, mine. Everything. Buyer beware.
Be a Prudent investor or learn the hard way. Nothing wrong with due diligence? Right?
Seeing is Believing
Bull saw Treaty hit oil in Belize...but you and several others do not believe it. Treay confirmed this with an 8k...but you and several others do not believe it. But fair is fair myself and MANY others here do not believe you. LMAO
Due Diligence Time and Money
Truth is, there is a lot you don't know.
If you spend the time and money, you can know almost everything.
I will be flying to Texas to visit the wells soon.
I want to see the water injection at work.
BULL
Truth is there is a lot we don't know.
And won't ever know if you rely on this company solely for truthful information.
Yesterday you reported TECO was producing 10 BOPD. Today you are reporting 20 BOPD. That is a 100% increase. At that growth rate, TECO would be at 1000 BOPD by next week, far ahead of the 6/30/12 target date.
The truth is we don't know what the current production rate is. We don't even know what the January production rate was. Nor do we know the December production rate. There are certainly hints of increased production on certain leases though if you dig into the numbers. At this point, I'm much more interested in monitoring the production increases than measuring how close we are to the 6/30/12 goal.
TECO PRESS RELEASE VALIDATION AND CREDIBILITY
Quote:Press Release: Treaty Energy Corporation – Mon, May 23, 2011 9:30 AM EDT
"Mr. Reid added, "With the addition of the 8 leases announced today, I believe that Texas oil production should reach 1200 barrels in June (2011) and will grow monthly, as wells are reworked on all of our Texas leases. The goal that we have set for Treaty is to be producing at the rate of 900-1000 BOPD by the end of this year .
Sound familiar? How about 10 BOPD?
1% Right, 99% wrong?
20 BOPD puts it at 2% right, 98% BS
Yes.
It is unfortunate the press releases exaggerate and misrepresent the truth. However 1% of it was true, therefore technically not a lie just very misleading.
Insignificant, negligible.
20 BPD is Uninteresting, Insignificant, Negligible.
Press Release: Treaty Energy Corporation – Mon, May 23, 2011 9:30 AM EDT
"Mr. Reid added, "With the addition of the 8 leases announced today, I believe that Texas oil production should reach 1200 barrels in June (2011) and will grow monthly, as wells are reworked on all of our Texas leases. The goal that we have set for Treaty is to be producing at the rate of 900-1000 BOPD by the end of this year (Dec 2011).
Sound familiar? How about 10 BOPD?
1% Right, 99% wrong?
20 BOPD puts it at 2% right, 98% BS
Belize press Credibility Verification
I'm not sure of the sources credibility, I think that the Belizean Media is very bias against Oil & Gas Companies.
On the other hand, the quotes that are used are claimed to be from the Minister of Geology, & are pretty incriminating... IF this report is true, and that's a big IF, then I smell a class-action lawsuit just around the corner... Though it might be difficult finding a lawyer to file suit - TECO really doesn't have any assets to go after.
Great Analysis.
As usual, you are very thorough. Under normal circumstances everything you are saying apply to TECO. However, we are not remotely close to normal circumstances. Danger Will Robinson What just happened in Belize has created a Significant Public Risk. Ever heard of the straw that broke the Camels back?
I realize technical s don't factor in fundamentals but this is a weakness of purely trading stocks with just technical s. I appreciate the TECO Valuation Model you created, Perhaps you can expand your talent and do a Risk Model?
There has been a MAJOR fire created. Fires burn.
Time to fundamentally reduce TECO risk is solely my opinion. Sorry about the falling pps. Volume is about to dry up so now is a limited time to reduce large positions.
Nothing wrong with trading a stock. Might not catch the highs and lows but safe money is only safe when its cash.
Humor is life.
Look forward to reading all TECO's press releases at the Reid Roast.
6,000,000 B...
:)
Yes. Entirely up to the trader to take profits or even losses.
What's important is the trader be exposed to what's really going on.
Yes, the lower the PPS, the less risk for the same reward.
You posted that yesterday as well.
Since then, TECO's PPS has gone down 10%. That means the risk is 10% lower than 1 day ago and the reward is 10% greater.
Great Technical Analyis.
As usual, I enjoy and respect your work. Technicals are a great complementary tool.
However, In today's TECO risk/reward, I think the fundamental RISK exceeds all technicals. My question to you is at what price points to we SELL?
Technicals are supposed to show both entry and exit points, correct?
A professional Oil man opinion.
Glad there is another one on this board.
How about that claim for a possible 6,000,000 dollar field based on one wild-cat well, non-validated oil detecting technology, a mud-log and rock cuttings (maybe).
Did that really happen? It feels dream-like. You got to admit, it is soooo out there you have to laugh.
Finding Osprey partners, TECO's mystery PR company, is impossible. Better off finding the loch ness monster, bigfoot and the aliens that crashed in Roswell, NM.
TECO RISK versus REWARD today?
What was the risk/reward the oil strike claim before versus now in relation to the PPS?
New Risk just surfaced:
1) New Significant Pending litigation recently surfaced (more risk)
2) Belize is NOT in good relations with TECO anymore- how far can Belize take this? (More risk)
3) Company press releases have lost shareholder confidence and reliability (more risk)
4) No American company has yet to release What the Belizeans released entitled " Treaty Energy's Oil Claim Bogus"
http://www.7newsbelize.com/sstory.php?nid=21631. This would be catastrophic to the PPS and News LOVES THESE STORIES (HIGH RISK)
5) Fracing will be met with serious opposition. Belize has never had this done before and these are shallow depths. This poses risk to Belize's only water supply. (more risk)
6) Major company press releases caused many investors to come in at .08 through .013. Large scale press releases of this magnitude have drawn attention. There are lots of unhappy investors. (more risk)
7) There is a significant likelyhood that the SEC is now investigating because of the magnitude of what took place last week. In fact they may have just entered this board room ( want to discuss risk? Ever seen what happens when an SEC decides to act? No notice. Frozen shares. Google it.) (Enormous Risk)
8) Belize Oil "strike" most likely absolutely nothing or insignificant. A dry hole would cause irrevocable and permanent damage to TECO (more risk)
9) Kansas and Tennessee "deals" have vanished and have left some angry shareholders (risk)
The price was around .05 before all these new risk factors appeared. Thus .064 is a GREAT time to take some profit/loss. Come back in when there is something more tangible and less risk, regardless of pps.
What if there is no next week? Google what the SEC can do with these situations.
A real strike in Belize would help offset some of these. However let's be real. No 3rd party analysts. Belize says there is no oil. TECO has failed thus far to support any claims of having any producible oil whatsoever..
How many times does someone cry wolf before it loses validity?
Oops! Sorry....
I inflated the production data and didn't compose a press release with it. Did you notice the improvement of monthly production over time?
NEITHER DID I... Contrary to TECO press releases.
TECO averaging only 9.8 Barrels Per day in total production
Data direct from Texas Railroad Commission. (Not from me and certainly not from TECO press releases)
Oil & Gas Production Data Query General Production Query Results
Query Path: Search Criteria > Statewide, Operator: C & C PETROLEUM MANAGEMENT, LLC
View by: Monthly Totals
Operator Name: C & C PETROLEUM MANAGEMENT, LLC, Operator No: 120104
Statewide Monthly Totals, Jan 2011 - Dec 2011
Date ----- Oil (BBL)
May 2011 ----- 10
Jun 2011 ----- 311
Jul 2011 ----- 313
Aug 2011 ---- 250
Sep 2011 ---- 288
Oct 2011 ---- 281
Nov 2011 ---- 295
Dec 2011 ---- 0
Total 1,748 ---- 0