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Awk
That much is pretty obvious. I wondered if there is any legs for a company who wants to continue to use software encryption but also finds a role for TPM management. That would speak more to a future grwoth path that was not dependent on hardware encryption. Encryption of dirves in some manner appears to be a given now regardless of flavor. The downside of not having stuff encrypted seems overwhelming even if you are not doing it the best way.
Snackman
As I understand it, the TJX breach was attributable to not having decent security around their wireless cash register terminals (or was that another breach at a different vendor?). This brings up a point though. There have been numerous breaches or similar identity problems that everybody seems to think Wave could cure. While I do believe they could be part of a solution for some of the problems, intuitively I feel that the solution requires many more helping hands. For example,I assume even Papa Ginos could have a problem even though their laptops are protected.
flyer
Flyer good news would be when we see purchases for the server products to manage everything. I don't think we will succeed if everybody is just purchasing embassy trust suite. Certainly this may be a necessary condition but not nearly sufficient.
Once there was a discussion of a price that corresponds to the 50 million market cap it was almost inevitable that some folks would try and drive the share price below that threshold. Whether it holds is an entirely different question. Certainly no news or visible success on Wave's part will not help.
If there is no success then you should question the value of the technology. If no one wants to buy it, then what is it worth. Is it only valuable for free or only bundled with a particular application? I'm not saying this is the case but ultimately the purchasers define the market value.
Asiseeit
Only if the top forecasts are really stretches. By now the expectations are set so low that even a good quarter doesn't do much.
Genz2
There has been much talk about this issue and concern. But if you look back over the years, the notion that any market purchases would have created a problem due to material good information thereafter has never really happened. In fact the only controversy followed their sale of stock following a run up. So while perhaps a theoretical concern, I'd have to conclude they don't buy stock becuase they get it for free through options and/or they outspend their income and can't afford to buy a meaningful amount.
Wave's issue (or at least one of them) is that there are still so few deals in the close to closing stage that a delay of a few weeks/months eliminates an entire category of revenue turning sales from 1 million to zero and reducing revenue by a third.
It is difficult to fully understand why the sales pipeline has not moved to the closing or closed stage over all of 2007 and until it does, it is reasonable to wonder if it ever will. The questions and the uncertainty would be addressed adequately when the situation really changes. But until then, I don't see how anyone is pleased with the progress to date. At least part of Wave is well beyond a developmental stage company and it is not a lab experiment (we might be for staying aboard).
Ramsey
I could offer another view. Wave has had several pretty good investment firms representing them over the years because their businees model and story is compelling. For the same reasons they got us investors and the wide range of partners or almost partners. However given the lack of actual traction many have left including some investment firms that were believers.
So far SRA investors have been able to make some money because of the sharp discounts relative to when the conversations begin. I honestly don't know how many of the investors from earlier placements still have shares and skin in the game. That's not to say that SRA is not better than some others but it is difficult to view the placements in too high esteem other than they got it done and in these markets and wave's track records you could imagine worse outcomes. Unfortunately if traction doesn't appear soon, we won't have to imagine it. I really didn't think it could go on as long as it has but I guess as long as the share price is listed and above 0, there is enough margin to provide gains to buyers of the placement. All at our expense I might add.
alea
A golfing analogy - how many birdie putts go in if you are short. I'm pretty confident that SKS sees real demand which is resulting in more headcount (its not hope in that regard). However the track record of converting interest and even meager sales into meaningful revenue is about as bad as it can be. Thus one can argue there is still hope in the equation. He is running the company by trying to stay ahead of the curve and on the assumption that the market will form in time. If not the company is sold/dissolves and none of us can tell which will come first. It's subject to too many outside forces.
No
The 2000 investors made a bunch of money.
vacation
This write-up was well written and I thought quite clear in the benefits to purchasers. even I understood it at first reading. Many of thier other PRs get too caught up in terminology and the goals are opaque.
Wavedoctor
I suspect they will need more cash before they can simply rely on revenues. Even if you could project breakeven just before you went broke, they would never run the company down to fumes again. And given the uplift in activity and the fact that they triage opportunities based on funding needs, they will seek more funds. But like always, they would want to do this with positve momentum and not from weakness.
Current forecasts (all speculative) have suggested a need as we go into Q2. Since we don't have precise and daily information on spending and cash inflow, any of our forecasts could be off by a month or two at best.
all
this dialogue about SKS is pretty speculative. He has grown in the job, made numerous mistakes early on but gradually improved on many facets ranging from interacting with people internally and externally, to communications, to decision making etc. I think it is indisputable that certain events took place because the board and stewwardship of the company was insular and heavily controlled by the family. It has obviously changed somewhat through maturation and a big dose of regulatory scrutiny.
One quality I see missing from this conversation is perserverance. Looking backward it seems obvious now how difficult it was for Wave's initial business strategies to pan out although it is possible that someone could have morphed the initial ideas into something more commercially successful. Regardless it seems to me that many leaders would have given up or taken an easier path and SKS did not. It is also true that the compensation package made such decisions a lot easier than if he was truly taking a minimum pay package with everything at risk.
As an aside I don't see how you can offer praise for the CFO from what is publically known. However I do think that he did offer some resistance to the use of working capital which in light of the financial situation might have reduced the level of dilution in the long run.
Matt
you could well indeed be correct. However one of your comments is worth commenting on
With people like us on the board sniffing around everywhere, do you really think such a consumer surprise could be sprung on us with so little warning?
We could easily be surprised by a lot of things without any notice. I think you overstate our forensic skills. However in this case we've already seen Seagate raising ideas about content, SKS discussing concepts, TVTonic discussed in the context of subscriber management and great interest in some way of offering protected content to consumers. Given the sensitivity of any possible deals and solutions, I doubt we would really ever know anything definitive to the broad group before it was announced. The days of leaked information to broad distributuon groups are long gone.
Kisamura
There has always been a large group of potential long investors that have the luxury of waiting if and until it seems like Wave can succeed. That includes some of the most vociferous bashers who would feel quite good about making long money on Wave and perhaps with an extra smile since it might be better than those who suffered for many years.
There is so much uncertainty and history to this company that certainty is a tough standard to meet. But unquestionably building blocks that most didn't even know were necessary have steadibly appeared and the outlook appears increasingly more promising. How long term investors will ultimately fare is still an open question but those investing at today's prices have a pretty appealing risk/reward ratio (and even better given the current market)
Xpoint
I believe this has always been the case. Waves per unit has gone down as they volume has gone up. But I think the thrust is that the pricepoints have been raised to recognize the greater amount of embedded functionality.
Barge
I agree that it is presumptious for any of us to think we know about the business plans for these companies in emerging areas such as consumer protected valued content distribution. I assume that many have been and will study this space recognizing that the first one or two that get it right could gain substantially. All they need to do is look at Itunes and the Ipod to see the impact of a successful innovation.
I believe that we generally underestimate the time it takes to go from concept to auccessful implementation. So if and when Seagate does try and bundle content on their drives could still be a ways off. However the building blocks for these plays are coming together and whne something does happen we can at least say we saw it coming (assuming we are still alive to see it).
Kev buddy
Some advice. When I plan to write something that I know will be provocative or viewed negatively, I double or even triple check my information to make sure I don't come off as being a fool. On a message board read by many people, that seems especially good advice. Something to think about - this one was easy to spot because it said it was an extension so even I spotted the error in your message.
where is Skype?
alea
oddly I think their stumbling along made the opportunity seem unrealistic and economically poor tio potential competitors. Now that it is emerging, the architecture has evolved so much in terms of nodes and players that Wave will not easily be pushed to the sidelines. Also the duration of the process has probably strenghtened the bonds amongst the players and in many business situations, relationships trump other factors. I still find it dififcult to monetize the opportunity since the range of results is so vast but the opportunity itself is becoming clearer and clearer and bigger and bigger.
alea
SKS" dream scenario was that they could deploy their basic wares allover the place while everybody thought it was pointless and worthless thereby giving them a free pass all the while finding a way to stay solvent. Then the market moves and they are in the cat bird's seat. There is a ways to go but the scenario is gradually playing out.
Keeler
I've mentally tracked the themes and tenor of many different people's post over the years as it helps explain their perspectives and also highlights when something inconsistent emerges. Most follow a pattern and you can identify sometimes a change in attitiude which is usually very understandable.
When Unix first joined the thread, I wondered about agendas. However as a general rule he was doubtful but not very invested in taking a negative position about Wave. More skeptical and almost reading the board for entertainment and possibly some insights in the emerging security space.
However as you can see when the tone of the board has become more uplifted, he has dropped that pretense and now announces the certainty of Wave's failure and upcoming disappearance - such tone coming just when the first signs of real progress are more clearly visible. Conclusions are left to the reader.
Alea
Its difficult to tell whether the timing of this campaign was planned 12 months ago or if it was depedent on successful pilots and getting the supply chain in place. But either way, this is a seminal event in Wave's history and it will soon become apparent how effective their pricing strategy is and also how well equipped they are to deal with real business delivery. At least they have experience managing a 9 figure bank acccount. We are entering a new reality for them now.
cs
That would be my take. Except perhaps with Danbury you might be able to encrypt without having the encryption taking place on a drive like Seagates. There may be advantages to one approach or the other and it may depend on system resources, speed etc. But the going premise (which is not necessarily a fact) is that the management of the keys and related admin needs to be done somewhere and that Wave's solutions work with all these approaches (and so far there are no others who can make this type of claim). Given Wave's ongoing collaboration with Intel, it would be quite surprising if their newest innovations would result in Wave's exclusion. It seems like the TPM makers are the ones at risk.
OK
By now you should remember there have been numerous instances when someone or even many wanted to get in and buy but we know the end of each story. There is certainly enough tidbits raised to suggest that SKS will have something more strikenly affirmative to say this time compared to before. And there is enough grayness as to exactly how much was sold and when and when it can be recognized to allow for a surprise or disappointment around some mean expectation.
But unless I see 100's of thousands of shares being grabbed out of blue, I'd surmise its simply someone who knows nothing more than I speculating with a little money that the news will be up and not down.
All you can say for sure is that either Wave will dwindle away or one of these calls is going to blow your pants off.
Cosing
While I have definitely adopted a wait and see attitude with Wave, I disagree it would take an upside suprise to reach breakeven by the end of 08. If Wave simply grows with the market, that will happen before then or it may never happen at all. As Go-Kite points out, almost everybody is including TPMs in their machines and the focus on hardware encryption is growing pretty sharp.
I've learned my lessons about predicting and Wave's revenue achievements so far have been putrid, but that probably has more to do with the market than Wave - the market has been and continues to change in the right direction and it does not require a sea change anymore to generate the relatively meager revenues needed for breakeven.
I certainly wasn't thinking of large sums today at all. I was looking to the future if and when they achieved a large viewing base becasue they had good targeted offerings that cumulatively aggregated to a large audience. This all presupposes that the TVTonic platform offers a better differentiated viewing platform - from quality, filtering and ease of use.
Utube made it because they assembled a big audience - it remains to be seen if it will generate much revenue and profits directly or indirectly. Typically (as you know) it is not the cost or perhaps the technical apsects of the technology that is the value but rather the first mover, the market insight and then the ready made audience that is coveted by a deeper pocketed acquirer.
I think it will be easier for Xpress to get a large audience than for them to develop a business around it. but with the audience someone may be ready to take it to the next level.
If the capitalized value of this company will not exceed $5 million, then its a pretty big failure. In fact why would you ever do something like this at all?
Actually positive like they would get (illustrative) $100 million for the value of the subsidiary. Either this will be viewed as a very good platform to gather potential consumers or it won't.
This is first time in a long time that I think Wavexpress may actually succeed in building something of value. I can imagine this type of content being delivered on their platform achieving some real success. It's an interesting and potentially broadly applicable niche that appears to have good technology and usability and the media center platform is a good place to be.
I am not sure how ads might work and whether they might alienate the type of viewers attracted to this type of programming. But it seems okay if this is where everything else is going. Also I am not that confident that Michael et als. have the skills to monetize it but I could certainly imagine a joint venture partner or even a buyer of the business having those capabilities. Either way that would change the numbers from negative to something much more positive.
Gucci
You think the reason the share price is not going up is because SKS is discredited. I would have thought the lack of disclosed revenues and secondly the lack of confirmed revenue deals was the cause. Do you seriously mean what you write or is someone else writing it for you?
And what kind of revenue will they get in terms of average per seat from a mid to large size company.
Given the prices that companies pay for software that they really want and the increased value of the overall managment package, I'm hoping that the amounts will exceed the $50 that SKS threw out earlier when they had sold nothing.
Alea
There have been many times in the past when it appeared that Wave would succeed based on their completion of products, addition of potent partners and the market seeming to require good security. it's only after it did not happen, that one can look back and identify reasons why it didn't. Sure it looks even more promising now (as in the past)but that's as cleart an explanation I can give for the hedging and uncertainty that is present today. Like always, it can be dispelled quite forcibly by proof that the products are selling as expected.
$2.05 million with good per seat upgrade revenues this quarter and $5 million next quarter would start this process.
Ramsey
It's pretty simple now. If upgrade packages are being sold now (as has been inferred if not stated) which have even more value and prices now than before (because there is more to manage and do), then in the third quarter report we will see a specific uptick in revenue that can't be explained by more TPM bundle sales and SKS will be able to state clearly that there have been package sales to larger companies in Q3, growing through the first part of Q4 and we can expect ... based on this trend. It may be early in the process (as it always seems to be) but the pattern would be unmistakenly different.
While the report would not be surprising to some of us (except that it actually happened), it would demonstrate to the many doubters that traction has actually been established. But until that happpens it is tough or even foolish to argue with history - even I don't react to anything I hear anymore. Been there/done that.
Weby
That was really great and shows the value of youtube
With some thought and talent you could probably capture our last tne years of waiting in a similar song as well.
Matt
Sorry I did not mean to diminish your joy (it is obviously a very positive PR in a promising range of products and services). I naturally react now when the forecasts become so bullish so quickly. I think they will be much more grounded when there is clear evidence that Wave's package of products and services for the enterprise are being bought in quantity and the reported revenue appears consistent with the amount of sales. That would truly be the most promising news wave has ever had.
Slate
Interesting. I recall some discussions about maintenace with Wave and there were some aspects that naturally attracted an ongoing revenue stream ands oem of the software did not. Are you expecting more than 10% of the total sale price to become ongoing revenue to Wave? Or are you thinking of a different business model when you think of annual maintenance fees?
Matt
I've always known Dell was selling wave software. One issue is the price Wave gets - as you know it is a lot less when it goes through an OEM and Dell will be earning commissions on Wave sales. Now compared to selling zero, this will be an infinite improvement. But whether it achieves the lofty projections that appear from time to time is another question. For someone buying in today, it certainly looks promising. For those who bought in on the original up cycle with AMD, Intel, Broadcom, CBS and EDS, there is quite a ways to go. Always remember there are two audiences - the old and the new. And way bacjk when, there were several PRs which could have (and were) classified as the most promising news for Wave ever.
Unix
I infer from your use of years that you do not think Wave will actually succeed (or you would have used months or quarters). It seems highly probable to me that it will be less than 4 quarters or their business model is simply not going to work ever. Since the FDE drives are going to sell, it would mean that Wave had to give away all the enterprise software or no one was buying it.
Matt
None of us know what an enterprise will pay for these solutions when bought in bulk. Nor do we know how much Wave will receive net of costs to other sales channels. It is obviously more than anything Wave has sold to date but honestly there simply isn't any history to know theses items. Sure lots of price points are stated on calls, in emails, in meetings but talk is cheap. We'll start seeing at least the impact of the pricing in 07 results and that will provide some good insight as to when Wave can breakeven and beyond.
Like many things in Wave;s history it could be unbelievably good. But...