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Frank, will try to read your post tomorrow. Went to X-Men tonight. So just checking in. Used today to lighten both short positions and gold. Gold positions have outperformed % wise, but I'd be ahead more if I didn't short the SPX in the 875 area. Made about 5% off my lowest levels of the past 2 weeks so banking it. Back near the highs and I'm going to try NOT to trade less until things start acting rational again. Although based on divergences showing up, sentiment, TA levels, FA etc, I suspect I'll be shorting the SPX again on any apparent ST weakness.
X-Men was somewhat disappointing. Still worth seeing if you're a fan as it further completes the picture and has some interesting effects/storylines, but overall feels like it was written by a high school freshmen for high school freshmen. Too many ridiculous scenes to suspend disbelief. Or maybe I'm just getting old and grumpy. Next terminator could be good, but typical Hollywood looks like it's heavy on action at the expense of thinking. Original Matrix is already a classic because - in the director's own words - they only used effects/stunts to when added to the overall story. For those who haven't seen it I think Pan's Labyrinth has been one of my favorite films in the past few years. Also liked the Fountain. There are a few others I'm forgetting, but it's late.
Glad to hear you'll still check in. I would have been better off playing golf this past month. Slowly letting some air out of the account this month. I think I'm down about 4% approx for the month, but still up nicely for the year. Been whipped around some. Win a few and lose a few, but nothing really huge, but overall hasn't been worth my time. Net short currently, gen market, net long gold shares again, no energy and nothing else much in quantity. Trying to preserve capital mostly for what's likely to be some no-brainer risk/reward entries at some pt this year, but I've been lacking patience. Kids have been a lot of work lately too. House is trashed, but don't have the motivation to clean after watching stocks all day. Too many things to pick up w/kids.
If I find some trades were I have some conviction and I take larger positions I'll try to keep you in the loop. Otherwise I'll probably check in only once in a while as well.
There's no quitting. You can sit on the sidelines if you want, but we reserve the right to drag your ass back here at some pt.
Do whatever you need to do to recharge. There is still a lot of money to be made the next few years w/some patience. At some pt gold will go over 1K again I have no doubt. Also oil will probably make a lasting low in the next 1-3 years. This will be a great buy. No quitting.
The last month has been a waste of my time as well, but that's how it goes as a trader at times. I'm mostly cash w/a few shorts right now. Still have small gold position, but fairly bare bones. Also watching natural gas like yourself, but going to wait for a ST bottom in the gen markets most likely.
I don't own the board, the forum ect. As an investor I want as many "reasoned" opinions as possible. I like to look at both the bull and the bear arguments. However, targets without reasons is somewhat useless. So yes I still want you to expand your ideas. And no I don't want you to leave - assuming you're willing to share more than target prices. I'm been long gold on/off for about 8 years now. Was either lucky and/or good in catching the bottom sub 300. I have some gold coins/silver, but otherwise I'm pretty light on the stocks currently. They may be close to being done correcting, but another read would have more downside left. I'm leaning towards more downside, but not w/the numbers you are suggesting. That's why I wanted to see how you viewed copper, oil, Dollar and the markets to make that assumption about sub $500 gold? So you do you feel the crisis will be largely over in a 1-2 years or you thinking massive deflation or something else. Again simple question asked in earnest.
I'm merely asking you to expand upon your reasons. If you lived thru the '76-80 bull then start acting like it. Surely someone w/such experience and wisdom can answer a simple question on why they believe what they do and how it relates to the big picture.
So what'll happen to the US Dollar, oil, stock market, copper in your scenario?
So what are you reasons if you don't mind sharing. I can think of a few, but right now I'm much more cautious. But it might be over after 1-2 more days of down. Hard to say ST. I realize I may end up buying back what I sold at the same price. I still see too much ST risk to justify much in terms of capital.
HUI move looks corrective per 60 min HUI chart I showed you. At the least it would appear that we have a C wave down yet to go off the top. Down on vacation right now, but will probably post more when I get back.
Changing the rules in mid-game, are we? Next you're going to say that only those who overextended themselves and bought too much land may have a pony. Or maybe only those who made their profits in non-shorting, non-precious metals may have a pony? Where does the ugliness end? It's my pony. I earned it and damn it, if I want to to turn it into a pony burger I'm going to. No more PPT. I'm getting some people together and we're marching on your house to demand some change. Starting w/your annual gains/losses. Henceforth any gains will be spread out equally between myself and select SI/iHubbers. Of course the losses will be yours to bear. And yes if this continues you will of course be first against the wall.
Flesh and blood. About 4-5 feet tall. Breathing would be nice. Non-decaying. No parasites.
Unlike some, I'm guessing you're good for it. So therefore I'm putting in my pony request right now. Smaller, white w/brown spots. Must smell decent, but relatively young and easy going w/kids. Oh, must be in rare blood line that will fetch a nice resale value.
You've been pretty accurate so I'm giving myself 50/50 odds here. Don't break my kid's hearts.
Thanks.
Sold more gold stock today. I still have some positions as I think this is yet another shakeout, but we're at levels such that more downside could see a much bigger swoon than we've seen thus far (at least in POG terms). HUI hard to say. Still have some energy and lots of cash again. If I had 0 gold stocks I might do light buying today, but it does look like broad market has a bit more upside (may not a lot in % terms), but they'll stretch this out a bit longer is my guess. Kinda crazy given the action announced at the last Fed meeting, but in these manipulated markets nothing surprises.
If gold takes out 875 area and gold stocks outperform gold to the downside may consider selling more, but more than likely I'll be buying any dips going forward, but I think some patience may be required again.
Hard to tell if this HUI dip should get bought this morn or if it's going to be a bigger correction. Gold sitting on the uptrend looking fragile (guess even printing money out of thin air isn't enough). Sitting on hands for a bit longer.
I'm bullish on energy (less so now that it's run) given that it's cheap LT and I couldn't see broad market rallying w/out it. Gold is great, but relative to oil it's expensive (LT) so I was just looking for marginal money transfers. I suspect there's a bit more to play out, but like the gen market the rally is getting to the pt where the risk/reward isn't as compelling. I doubt the low is in for oil yet simply because the global economy is still falling apart. Except for gold everything is a trade.
As for "being too FA biased" I know that from time to time I ignore TA in favor of my FA read which is usually IT/LT in nature anyway. In a bear market it's almost always bad to ignore TA. That's why I said I was too FA biased. I should be able to sell 100% of my gold positions (or yesterday), but again FA wise find that very hard to do - not to mention buying back in too many accounts can be quite cumbersome.
Again, my approach is to use as many tool as possible (TA, FA, EW, sentiment, etc) and when they all line up those are of course the best trades. Often when you think the FA is "too compelling" and you trade mostly on FA you get slaughtered. I still think FA is a critical part, but again when used in conjunction w/other tools.
Right now volume in golds in light so I'm leaning more towards this being a buying op this morn.
Lack of posting on my part is more a function of time of late and wanting to drink/relax at night. Thanks for keeping the light on.
I'm not inclined to short yet either (broad market). Took some profits this morn on the gold stocks. Still holding decent sized positions, but wanted to raise cash as I'm uncertain ST. In this market cash always comes in handy at some pt. I don't think we'll get a full retrace on the gold stocks, but seeing 310-315 HUI seems very doable. Perhaps I'm too biased FA wise. Another part of me sees a breakout to the upside sooner than later, but gold needs to get going again back over 950. Guess I'm hedging my bets. I would feel just as insecure holding 0% gold/gold stocks as I would 70-100%.
With today's dip I bought more physical today. Gold still, but do want to get some silver soon as well. Energy is a buy on any substantial dips as well I would suspect.
First season was the best by far. After you had some episodes that were pretty good, but went downhill a bit. Still I suspect we'll see more copycats of their style, direction, mood in sci fi genre in the future (especially on TV).
The whole series could have been better/longer if they had utilized flashbacks similar to "Lost". They had a few flashbacks toward the end, but they didn't add much to the storyline.
Amazing that the bailout of toxic assets is considered a "new" plan.
Ok, kinda geeky, but the last Battlestar was pretty good. Aspects were campy, but it's hard to wrap up a series in 2 hrs. Probably the best Sci Fi in the last few years. Certainly the best Sci Fi on TV. Night.
Don't suppose you know the tracking symbol on the US exchange? I can call in. Computer having an issue.
HUI just starting to break out. Overextended ST, but a little higher and we should run for a bit. I'm just going to hold thru this I think. Was tempted to sell this morn, but Ben has really changed things. I do think buying select beaten down oil plays should outperform gold shares ST. Getting harder to find though. UNG (natural gas) at these levels w/summer approaching seems like a decent risk/reward bet.
Also long term DBA or RJA seems ok to add here.
Relative to gold, silver looks decent here risk/reward wise. On new buying I think I'd favor SLV vs GLD ST.
Agree, but also there's a big FA component in that the Fed is openly printing at this pt. It wouldn't surprise me to see gold flat to down slightly tomorrow w/gold stocks up again.
Safe haven buying? Unwinding of leverage? Dollar best of bad choices? Why do you feel this way?
Very nice. Congrats for you. I got too cute w/timing, but I'm up 5% PF from my lows in 1 day just by buying post Fed. Nuts. I'd rather deal w/deflation personally.
They are opening printing money to buy the long end of the curve. Why short here? Why not short over areas of the market vs gold? Is the panic buying or what aspect?
I added more ABX. I think you have to be 1/2 to 3/4 in on the big caps. Smaller/mids usually allow better entries on dips.
This is nuts. Can't believe I was able to buy AUY where it was and where it is now post Fed.
Agree that's why I bought back some. Energy should do as good if not better than gold potentially. Some beaten down plays. ST, probably not IT.
If long term rates start to head higher despite this buyback program then you know the Dollar is cooked.
Riding existing positions is probably the smartest thing. I was too low on the gold exposure so I had to add some. Good price on AUY, mediocre on ABX.
I think if you like gold you have to have at least 1/3 of what you want in your portfolio LT in there right now. Maybe 1/2, but guessing we'll get some buying ops off the ramp. Got AUY at 8.05. ABX and/or some GDX here looks ok. A few others. I hate to chase though.
Bought back some AUY. Big reversal in Dollar/Gold. Don't think it'll hold ST, but should put a floor in gold and a ceiling for the Dollar. Bigtime monetary printing by the Fed.
(edit) Well I didn't exactly execute too well either today. Long positions helped cushion the blow so the overall loss today was slightly under 1%. But had I not shorted I would have been up 1%+. I have more energy than gold at this pt. Stopped myself out of the shorts, but should have done so earlier in the day. Went to lunch and we shot up too fast. I never recovered. I can't go to lunch I guess. Silly position anyway. Live and learn I hope.
Rising wedge on the 1-min chart forming this morn. Should resolve eventually to the downside. Not sure if today is an up day or down day, but I think we'll finish red eventually. Shorting more.
Close enough for 1/2 positions.
I suspect we get some sort of retrace from yesterday's drop. If so it would appear a good shorting op. Let's see if they're kind. 760 area and drop back down again? Here's hoping. So much for gold going opposite gen market. Half blown out of AUY from yesterday. Other half may go soon. I'm more impatient w/the losses these days.
Other half of AUY just went. Does look like we're getting a retrace. Hopefully a bit higher to setup a better risk/rew. ST.
>> No, I remain in total awe of God and His creation. <<
You just have to reconsider what you think of the Bible, consider the whole Universe in all it's complexity and bam your a Deist. Welcome to the club.
Kidding of course. I'm open to the Bible being right, but the more I learn the less likely I feel that'll be the case. But as I've said there is much I want to learn still at some pt when I have more time.
Scripture written by man. Scripture that was "processed" over - what books made it into the Bible, which didn't. Again that's assuming the Bible is the "one" book.
I would just find it depressing if man were truly alone in the Universe. We have some great traits, but by and large our brains are ill-equipped to handle today's modern society. I'd like to think somewhere in the Universe some other sentient beings have progressed beyond us both technologically, ethically, intellectually and culturally. The history of man for the most part is very depressing. Maybe that's why we need to be "saved". However, my own opinion is that we are not alone in the Universe. Our time on the planet is probably limited, but that might be thousands of years it might be millions. Eventually we'll probably do ourselves in or get hit w/a comet (or some other disaster). Hopefully something will emerge that's better than man.
I'm a buyer of AUY today, but I don't see the volume that you do. Looking at GG, ABX, NEM, AUY, AEM. Inconclusive at best. I do think broad market will correct further though lending some support to PMs.
Ok, glutton for punishment. Below 771 again and I'll probably short w/a tight stop around 774.
H&S on 1 min and we're just so damn close to the lower end of the channel and very overbought (ST).