Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Well, after most of them went against me to start the week, PBR was my savior! Lost on the others I played, and got out of PAY ($22 calls instead of $21) way too early today, but PBR was just amazing!
2013-03-04 08:30:23 Filled PBR PBR 8 Mar 13 (W) 15.00 Call Buy To Open 10 $0.14
2013-03-04 08:58:54 Filled PBR PBR 8 Mar 13 (W) 15.00 Call Buy To Open 10 $0.08
2013-03-06 08:36:04 Filled PBR PBR 8 Mar 13 (W) 15.00 Call Sell To Close -1 $1.35
2013-03-06 08:36:04 Filled PBR PBR 8 Mar 13 (W) 15.00 Call Sell To Close -3 $1.35
2013-03-06 08:36:04 Filled PBR PBR 8 Mar 13 (W) 15.00 Call Sell To Close -4 $1.35
2013-03-06 08:35:57 Filled PBR PBR 8 Mar 13 (W) 15.00 Call Sell To Close -1 $1.35
2013-03-06 08:35:57 Filled PBR PBR 8 Mar 13 (W) 15.00 Call Sell To Close -2 $1.35
2013-03-06 08:35:57 Filled PBR PBR 8 Mar 13 (W) 15.00 Call Sell To Close -5 $1.35
2013-03-06 08:35:56 Filled PBR PBR 8 Mar 13 (W) 15.00 Call Sell To Close -2 $1.35
2013-03-06 08:35:56 Filled PBR PBR 8 Mar 13 (W) 15.00 Call Sell To Close -2 $1.35
Made up for all of my losses on the year on the one play and my first 10 bagger, ever (1127% before commissions ($31.50 total)!
Well, I've come up with a few for the week, and I was wondering if you or anyone else had any thoughts on them. Just ones I found that I thought I might like to watch for the week. I'm trying to work on finding potential plays and seeing how they pan out, and what others think about them. I know, these may be "out in left field", just looking for any thoughts on them, to compare to my own.
Weekly:
ABX - $29.50 March 8 '13 Calls
CLF - $26 March 8 '13 Calls
PBR - $15 March 8 '13 Calls
Monthly:
AMX - $21 March '13 Calls
ANV - $17.50 March '13 Calls
AUY - $14 March '13 Puts
BTU - $20 March '13 Puts
CDE - $19 March '13 Calls
CIEN - $15 March '13 Calls (Earnings March 7th, Before Open)
CRUS - $24 March '13 Calls
FNSR - $15 March '13 Calls (Earnings March 7th, After Close)
PAY - $21 March '13 Calls (Earnings March 5th, After Close)
PBR - $15 March '13 Calls - Looking for a move, just not sure about this week
Any input on what you or anyone else thinks about these, is greatly appreciated, as I'm trying to learn what makes for a good trade.
Attack me, then delete my response? Real mature ....
Look, for the last time, I am NOT in any long position on AAPL. You have already been reported for the personal attacks, and I would appreciate it if you would stop. I posted that your picks on MONDAY had very little time for profitable trades to be made, during. I said nothing about their potential for the rest of the week, just that bragging about them on MONDAY made no sense as there was so little opportunity to hit the trade for that day (without being in before the weekend). I don't get why you have to keep laughing at me and such, thinking I am riding AAPL down, when I am not, but it is pretty sad that you get pleasure from other people losing money.
I just don't understand what there is to be gained from it.
Despite perhaps giving people the wrong impression when I "blamed" JB for MY losses on MY investment decisions, I do appreciate that nobody here will resort to petty name-calling because of a difference of opinion. So, even if we don't all share the same view on various stocks here, at least it is at a mostly "respectful disagreement" level, opposed to some on this site, like found below.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=85143814
So, JimmyBob, UPB, and all you others who at least give some food for thought, and welcome differing opinions, thank you for being respectful.
I have already shown how useless your stats are, with regards to yesterday's trades. You see, unlike you, I have not made any claims to making great calls, or making a ton of money on a play, or being 75% accurate, blah blah blah. I played your little game last week, whereas you make a $10 range call and brag when it hits by 8 cents, I made my guesses (that is all they are, whether you admit it or not). I called for a low on Tuesday of 453-454, and it hit 453.89. I was wrong on the tight trading for a few days, and the close for the week, but I was making much more detailed guesses. Your $10 ranges make a huge difference (ie 439 is no good for 435 puts, but 430 is great). Also, you have called for 463 here, this week, as well as 420's. 0 for 2 this week on AAPL, I guess that's why you are "happy you lost mod here" so you don't feel obligated to post your guesses?
First off, it is very sad that you would laugh at people for losing money, and that says a lot for what kind of person you are. Your board is all about you being right, not about helping people make money. You have shown what you are truly made of, and I feel sorry for people like you. Also, you should know, I wasn't in AAPL at $600, so I couldn't have ridden it down to $450. I am not a long, I just believe AAPL has been beaten down way too far, as they are going to be making a ton of money for years to come, and trading at a P/E ratio of 10 is just ridiculous for a company forecast to make even higher profits for the next few years, at least.
Am I bullish? Yes. Does that mean I am long, and have lost a ton of money here? No. Also, it is "losing", not "loosing". I'll keep an eye on your board, to see how long it is before others begin calling you out on your "hits". All differences aside, best of luck to you.
Why do you laugh? Did I really ruffle your feathers that much, simply because I commented yesterday that over half of your "hits" opened at or near the HOD and had next to nothing for upside potential for anybody following your pre-loaded "picks"?
We'll be back up around 550 within the next 5 months, long before any non split-induced drop to the 350 mark you've been pushing.
Sorry to see you leave, sasi. (over moderating your new board enough for the 2, I guess?)
It looks like AAPL may stay out of the $420's this week, afterall, as the little pop this afternoon gives it a little breathing room.
So, as I figured, you were in beforehand, and posted over the weekend. Which explains why you would most certainly consider it a hit, because it is 60%. Well, nice gain on that one, but do you see where the confusion comes from? People will think those are what you are watching for the upcoming week, when you likely have positions in some of them from Thursday/Friday the week before.
Just be careful not to push your hits too much, without being sure people know you might already be in them, so your target gain might not be all that much higher than Friday's close. It just seems slightly misleading, that's all, but of course, whatever, and however, you choose to post, is entirely up to you.
Well, when you post your picks on Friday, all of these details will become moot, but for now, we will have to agree to disagree on what it means to hit the target.
I didn't deny that the target hit, just stated that from the time you gave your picks, SPY opened nearly at the HOD, and thus, the calls had very little chance at making a profit on your exit point. As you have said, you will begin giving your "week ahead" picks on Friday so as to give people an opportunity to look into them, and potentially make an entry before the weekend. That is why I claimed several shouldn't be considered hits, because they opened so close to the HOD that there was very little upside to an early morning entry.
Sasi, something I've noticed about your picks that you are advertising about hitting 14/21 so far this week:
SLV 28 calls: SLV opened up 16 cents higher than it closed on Friday, and was rarely below the $28 mark during trading hours. So those calls are now much weaker players for anybody to have made during the day (when ITM/ATM all day). I will admit, there were a few opportunities for someone to get in at $0.39, and sell at $0.47, but if you had made the call on Friday (at a low of 18 cents), there was a lot more potential.
BIDU 90 calls: BIDU hit it's peak for the day after about 4 minutes of trading, and the 90 calls opened at $1.30, while peaking at $1.52 before dropping 50% throughout the day. Also, it never truly hit the $90 target, as it topped out at $89.98. (If you're going to call AAPL hitting your target range by 8 cents, then you have to count stuff as not hitting if they miss by just a few cents.)
FB 27.5 calls: FB opened above $27 and by your scenario, you needed it to hold $27 to take a position. You give no indication of what you feel classifies as a "hold" on the chart. FB was over $27.40 about 3 minutes into the day, at which point, most potential for a trade was lost (mostly between 0.45 and 0.49 before it began the move down, late morning)
SPY 152 calls: SPY opened about 25 cents from the high of the day. The calls themselves opened at $1.27, and with the DOW hitting your exit of 14040 within a couple of minutes, there was no gain to be made (maybe 2 or 3 cents), and quite possibly, could have lost money from getting in at the open.
CTSH 77.5 calls: Again, another one that opened up, had a small move upward, then drifted back down. Anybody trying to get in at the open would have been paying $1+ with a peak at $1.20 on the day. A common theme with many of your plays that "hit" is that they do make much nicer moves from Friday's closing prices, but you're taking credit for calling that move when there is no play that could have been made to make the kind of gain it would seem (0.85 close to 1.20 high ~41%)
CSC 48 calls: Another stock on your "hit" list that opened near its high for the day. On top of the whopping 7 cent move the stock made from the open to its high (only $47.88, not $48), it had 1 contract trade hands today, at 0.57, down 18 cents on the day. There was absolutely NO play to be made on this one today, and you still count it as a "hit"?
GOOG 805 calls: Another open, shoot up for a few minutes, and come right back down, call. Sure, the 805 calls opened at $6 and hit a high of $9, but the spike would again, be nearly impossible to catch in time to make much of a trade. To make matters worse, if you did get in in the first 8-10 minutes of the day, you were down the rest of the way until taking your loss, unless you caught the very first few trades of the day, and took your profit 3 minutes later. As for the 800 puts, I'm hoping you aren't counting those as a "hit" since the 810 mark was missed by over $1.50.
HPQ 19.5 calls: Opened at 0.22, peaked at 0.27. Probably would have had to pay 0.21/0.22 to get in at the open, and sell at 0.25/0.26 at the peak, so again, very small window of opportunity there, and again, it didn't hit your target price (again to reference your 8 cents into the $10 range you called on AAPL)
LVS 52 calls: Another 3/4 minute wonder. Opened at 0.93, peaked a few minutes later at 1.51 and was down the rest of the way. Very few would have gotten a decent entry price, and all profit potential would have been gone from the more likely potential entry around 1.25, within 5 minutes of getting in.
So, with all due respect, 9 of your "14/21 hit" would have been nearly impossible to get in on in time. The fact that you count them as hits when at 3 of them didn't even hit your target, let alone lead to sufficient opportunity for a gain, it seems pushing such stats is only eating away at your credibility even further. All in my opinion, of course, but making predictions that have no value in a trade seems to be pointless. I mean, sure, getting in them on Friday would have worked out very well for all those that gapped up, but they are, as others have said, just paper trades if there is no opportunity to capitalize on them. By looking at them and saying "If I got in on Friday at x.xx and out today at y.yy, when the target hit ..." it is a moot point if those weekly picks had no opportunity for profits, come Monday morning.
Sasi, would it count as a time limit, if I said I believe it will touch $500 again, before the $350 you're calling for?
Let's go SINA! Any chance at that $57.50 mark for the end of the week? I picked up a couple of $55/57.50 call spreads, hoping it hits.
I guess it didn't want to hang around that $455 mark for a day. At least it hit my $453-454 range today. Ended up selling a $450/455 put spread instead of switching over to calls, thinking it might hang out at the $455 mark for a bit. Well, we shall see what tomorrow brings.
Well, your $460 puts may have given you a 200% gain today, but you also said they were "in play tomorrow", on Tuesday, when they closed at $2.18. They ended up closing Wednesday at $1.31 after a very quick spike in price at the open, to $3.34. So, given your followers from this board, how would they have done, following that call? Well, aside from about 20 minutes Wednesday morning, they never would have seen that $2.18 mark again.
Just saying, if you're going to pat yourself on the back on one call, might as well judge your performance on all of them. Also, not to nitpick here, but yes, you called "450's by Friday" on Wednesday. However, that is a wide range from $450 to $459.99, and you made it a full 8 cents into it in the last 12 minutes of the day, at a low of $459.92. I mean, yes, you did call it, technically, but given the fact that it had already pulled back $17 from Monday's intraday high, you made the call after a bearish move was already well underway.
That being said, you did well with the $470 puts call you made early Monday morning, being a quick double throughout the week, but the vague nature of such a call, and given how close it was to the $470 mark at the close Friday ($474.98) meant any quick move down, would likely be a double from the contract's close on Friday. Sure, there were, as you said, opportunities for quick doubles (and more), but the percentage move that it calls for (1.05%) is about the same as calling GOOG $785 puts next week, or GLW to hit $12.93 next week, or PBR hitting $16.13 next week.
I'm just saying, you made the $470 puts call with about 1% to move, your $460 puts call with less than 1% to move (albeit in an afternoon), and your "$450's by Friday" hit by 8 cents.
So, based on your posts a few days ago regarding AAPL, are you calling for $440/$430 next week, or do you mean, you think it will touch $449.99 or lower? I like to follow peoples predictions and plays throughout the week, and you are, at least, one of the more entertaining posters with your calls, and I just like to know what exactly you mean with your predictions?
So, are you looking for $450 by Friday, just to prove you made the right call, or are you actually looking for it to break into the $440's where you may be making a play on, say, the $445 puts or something like that?
Just for fun, I'll make a detailed prediction that won't go anything like I'm guessing:
Tuesday at least, will see a bit more downside, dropping another $5-6 intraday, to the $453-$454 range, trading will tighten up from there, through Wednesday, then we see a pop on Thursday, back up to $465, with a close on Friday, between $469 and $470. OK, it is fun guessing about what next week may bring. Now, if I felt confident with such a prediction, the $450 puts closed today at $2.18, and the $465 calls closed at $3.75. In this scenario, playing the $450 puts early in the week could net a 60-70% gain on Tuesday, followed by the switch over to the $460 calls, which at $455 would be trading a little below where the $465 calls closed today, and a bounce back to the $465-470 range could net another 50-150% gain. All good in theory, at least.
If only we could all make such predictions, and have them come true. Too bad it isn't that simple. Best of luck to you and all on this board, and have a good weekend.
AVP - Anybody looking for a pullback after their gap up on earnings, Tuesday?
Sold my 10 GLW, April $11 calls at $1.24 today, from $1.02 entry, Monday. I put more than I should have into it, and figured it would be best to take the 20% gain, and be happy, rather than give it all back on a down day. So basically, now that I'm out, it should be all clear to $13+, with the way my luck tends to go.
Is anybody watching GLW? I picked up some April $11 calls at $1.02 on Monday, and wondering if anybody has been following, looking for a move back north?
After it failed to hold that $14 mark, I got "scared" and decided, I shouldn't look a gift horse in the mouth, and took the 100% gain, 25 contracts from 0.08 to 0.16.
Thanks for the input, and I hope everything works out well for those still holding calls.
If it opens at the $14.25+ level it is currently trading in pre-market, I don't know if I should sell my 25 April $15 calls at $0.20+ from $0.08, or hold out for a price announcement when/if the deal goes through early next week.
Any thoughts? :)
Hello, JB,
First off, I just wanted to apologize for my over reaction to the critical reception of my attempt at humor earlier, in reference to my CALL position. With what I know (granted, not much, but still learning), I thought CALL looked good at the $18.51 entry I chose, and understood the risk I was taking in getting into any position so heavily, when it comes to straight-up stock holdings.
The apparent "Tic" Rule, that is, whatever I get into, goes down, took hold immediately, and it is frustrating to see the same thing over and over again, as I'm sure everyone can attest to. Then, on Wednesday, when the "research note" or whatever you'd like to call it came out, and I was unable to exit my position until lunchtime as I can't access my account, reliably, from my work location, I no longer tried to, even in humor, place the blame on anyone but myself.
I am a risk-taker, by nature, and am holding positions, on margin, as to utilize my account to its fullest potential, profit wise, and on my very first trade of the year, encountered the increased downside, in a significant way. $1000 down the drain, not because I took a stock somebody liked, and made it my own, but because I was stubborn, and could easily have taken the $100-200 loss with minimal damage, had I set some sort of money management/stop loss guidelines before getting back into the market. My original plan was to play a few options with a very small account, and make short term plays on stocks with decent returns on covered calls, to help reduce downside.
By deviating from that initial plan, I had cost myself 15% in a week. I got too caught up in where the stock could go in the short term, to the upside, that I became oblivious to the downside potential, and the nature of uncertainty surrounding the market as a whole. Sometimes, it is difficult to be happy with a small gain, or even taking a small, manageable loss, when those lofty potentials become intertwined, and eventually, indistinguishable from one's expectations. I feel that I have learned from my mistakes, to some extent, and while concrete numbers are hard to decide upon, am hoping that I can be happy with any gain, however small it is, that I am given in future trades.
My first opportunity to test this appreciation came today, while at work. On Wednesday, shortly after closing my CALL position, I decided to get into BBY, another stock I have been following for a while. With 7 days to expiration on the January calls, I felt comfortable with opening a position, and decided to get in at $11.60. In accordance with my initial plan (even if covered calls shouldn't be used in this manner), I decided to sell the Jan '13 $12 calls at $0.45, bringing my B.E. to $11.15, ignoring commissions.
A 3.4% move to the upside by expiration, could yield a 7.3% gain, while protecting me from up to a 3.9% move down. Even if the option strike wasn't hit, with bad holidays sales #'s expected, the downside seemed manageable, for my risk/reward tolerance, so I made my move, making up my own mind on a trade. While I know, when #'s are going to be released, a few percentage points could make a huge difference, between a 5% gain and a 5% loss, I liked the trade, based on my knowledge, and followed through with the type of trade I was planning to use from the beginning.
And, as we all know, sure, I could have made a ton of money playing calls, or even holding the stock without the covered calls, but when the #'s came out, better than expected, and it was at $13+ to open the day, I was happy with the position I found myself in. It seems, for now, I have learned to accept what does come my way, and not become fixated on what could have been. For an added sense of security, regarding the unknown future of any stock, I even chose to close out the position at $11.95, rather than wait for expiration to sell at the associated $12 strike. Sure, at $13.60 during lunch, I could have bought the short call position back, and let the shares ride hoping for more, but with the week I had, I was more than happy to make back over $430 of my initial CALL losses, and be on my way.
Sorry for such a long message, I just felt like posting as I continue in the learning process, so that, perhaps, I may look back in a time of need, and take some words of wisdom/advice from my previous experiences, rather than relying solely on the ever fading memories, that become less and less reliable as the weeks pass us by. Hopefully, I can slowly recover my losses from CALL, and begin to make some small gains with which to make some straight option plays. Best of luck to everyone.
I'm sorry, and am done posting after this message. I was simply joking around, and tried to make it clear that I don't blame you or anyone else for trades that I enter into of my own free will, but I guess everybody seemed to read the first sentence and skip over the rest of it, immediately saying it's not your fault and I shouldn't be blaming you for my trades, etc.
I'm sorry I didn't make it more clear that my first part of that post wasn't serious, as I appreciate the effort you put in, helping everyone by giving your plays and such. Obviously nobody can be right 100% of the time, even you, as you're all only human. Best of luck to you and all on the board.
Good bye.
Well Mikey, I've been around on and off for a while now, but play with a little here and there. I'm not an entirely new trader, but haven't been in the game as heavily, or as long, as most here. I always end up losing my cool, and making risky moves (read: penny stocks), and having to take some time off, licking my wounds.
Now I hope to bet better this time, while still aggressive, as long as I avoid penny stocks, I can survive for a little while at least. As for CALL, I am down $280 at this point as it closed at $17.81 from my $18.51 entry (-$0.70, not -$0.14 as you said), but that being said, I was just trying to lighten up a bit, and pretend I was freaking out, and blaming JB for everything. I even said I didn't actually blame him, but everybody seems to have missed that part and taken my comments seriously, or something.
As for the options, I arrived late to the party, and my CALL spreads have yet to be profitable. As for my SODA spreads (all 3 of them), I could take the gain here, but am watching further, to see where she goes.
That's why I only have the $300 in my options account, as I don't want to GAMBLE with too much right now. As for the actual stock, everything in the market is a gamble to some degree, but I'm willing to put more money into the stock itself as the 4% drop from my entry is just that, a 4% drop in value, not a potential 100% drop near expiration, that you can get with options.
I, of course, do not blame JB for anything that I have done, and was just posting in typical "oh my god, it dropped today, you were so wrong on this stock, why did I follow you?" manner that I find myself amused by when others do so, just because something didn't go their way immediately. And a little humor about the situation helps to calm the nerves and keep me from doing something I might regret later (like sell before it shoots up).
I intended to sell covered calls against it, but it took 2 days longer than it was supposed to for the funds to become available after the deposit than it initially said. Also, funds didn't become available until after I was already at work, where I don't have any real access to my account. As such, I got in during my lunch break, and was waiting for it to move up a bit before selling the calls as to collect a little more premium.
I was already willing to hold for a bit, it was just a little disheartening to see it go down as much as it did in the few hours since my entry. Just trying to joke around about it to lighten my mood a bit, as it isn't money lost until I sell, and I am doing my best to finally accept that and be a little more patient so I'm not kicking myself later.
Why did I ever follow you, JB!?!? Now I'm in my E-Trade account, holding 400 shares of CALL from $18.51 and I'm losing money! It's all your fault!!!!
No, but seriously, I know the market isn't always going to go in my favor, and decided, on top of the CALL options, I would pick up some shares as well, in case it doesn't go up further, right away. Best case scenario, I make some money on both over the next couple of weeks, and can move on with a gain. Worst case, I lose the premium I paid on the options, and have 400 shares to watch for a couple of months before I give up and take a loss. Nobody made me get into these positions, so I can't blame you or anyone else, especially considering no stock can up every day and there will be down days along the way.
Hopefully I'm still around in a few weeks to continue to dabble in options, and keeping an eye on this board. If not, I'll just be watching the paint dry in my portfolio, waiting for the day where CALL explodes and I can move on to something else.
CALL and SODA both looking good, JB, and regardless of how they turn out come Jan '13 expiration, I'm glad to be in it with my measly account of just $300. Got in last week, with the Jan $47.50/$50 call spread on SODA, and the $20/$22.50 spread on CALL. Hope it works out for everyone in these picks, and best of luck to all in this new year.
I'm glad I played DELL at a little bit of a lower range than you, but still, with the way the stock has been beaten up the past 6 months, it makes you wonder when they're going to bounce back a bit. Maybe something good will come along over these next 4 1/2 weeks and we'll both have some nice cheap monthlies that make us a decent gain.
Of course, if I can sell out of my $12 spreads for a 100%+ gain come Friday, I probably will take it, but I won't hold my breath for that.
I almost did the same thing with HPQ, after buying the Sept $20 calls at 0.60, and I could have sold the weeklies as high as 0.75 today. But I didn't get a chance to check on things at work, so I'll settle for hoping good things come and they have a good E/R to drive the price up to at least a 100% gain. Really, I'll be happy to win one, and lose one, and come out even or slightly ahead on the week.
Good luck on your 13's and 14's.
I did very similar on Friday, trying to give myself more of a range to work with.
Bought Dell Sep 12 & 13 calls at 0.75 and 0.30
Sold Dell AugWk4 12 & 13 calls at 0.63 and 0.19
Net Debit of 0.23, and should make some money on a small drop or a small gain for relatively low risk. Might not be the best strategy (or a good one at all), but it's just the way my mind tries to analyze risk.
Good luck to both of us.
SINA - glad I picked up the 2 August 52.50/50 call spreads today. With a little bit of good news from WMT tomorrow, I might actually have a good week.
Hope everybody is doing well with their ER plays.
Anybody here plan on playing WMT earnings? I have a few Sept 75 calls and was just looking around to see what anybody here thinks about the next few days?
Actually, he did predict that the price would pull back from the after hours highs following the FDA decision. He also predicted that it may pull back as far as the trend line support level in the low 0.70's, which it came fairly close to on Friday.
Now, he has mentioned a possible gap fill between 0.89 and 0.95. If I'm not mistaken, 0.89 is a full 10 cents higher than we are at now, so it doesn't seem that he is always predicting lower prices, nor is he always wrong on his predictions.
I certainly didn't enjoy the price action last week, and closed out of my BPAX call positions for the time being, but you shouldn't be criticizing someone for being right just because you don't like it. Also, even if he was predicting lower prices still, would that be any different that you posting "new" patents that have been out for 3 weeks now and acting like it's breaking news?
I now realize that those using charts to make their predictions have been more accurate than those pumping "$2+ by the end of the week" and such, so I don't think we should assume any intentions beyond making their predictions known, just as all of the longs have been doing.
Good luck to everyone on board, and hopefully we can begin a reversal this week and resume the climb towards $1, for good.
Thank you for clearing up the confusion I had as far as your smart money comments were concerned. I apologize if I seemed to be attacking your methods as that was not my intention.
When I have more time to set aside to learn the various chart patterns, how to identify them, and what they mean, I will certainly attempt to do so as I know they are important aspects of trading. To me, at this time, FDA decisions, earnings, and unexpected news still seem to defy chart logic, but hopefully, someday, I will begin to understand how it all fits together.
Again, thank you for your time in attempting to clear things up, and well done on the calls you've made regarding recent price action.
I saw your posts, but I guess what I was expecting was an explanation similar to the one I commented on, regarding what the "smart money" was doing prior to the news release. Yes, you did continue on with your analysis about the chart patterns forming and all of that, which I saw at the time you posted, but never touched back upon the "what is the smart money doing" part of your claims.
As in the previous post, you gave your ideas on what they were doing for the 2 months preceding the approval news, but never said anything about them in your previous posts on the 15th. Had you posted something previously along the lines of that last post, I would have considered that to be a fair response to the question of what the smart money was doing, but you did not. If you feel that one of your posts touched upon this that I may have missed/misread, then I apologize.
Yes, as you state, that could be ONE scenario. That does not, however, mean that is EXACTLY how things played out. You said the charts would show what the smart money is doing before news hit, yet you are just now saying what you feel one scenario could have been. Were things to unfold differently, it is quite possible to have found another theory that would explain the sustained rise in share price rather than the subsequent drop that we've experienced.
I appreciate the insight, after the fact, but hindsight is always 20/20, so to speak. I never tried to imply that your chart "readings" were wrong, but more, the way it was presented didn't give concrete support of your reasoning. It was in fact, still a guess, albeit an educated one, based on past experiences and such. As for your trend line support level being hit, it certainly appears that will occur in the next day or two, and I applaud you on said call.
I found myself extremely disappointed with the price action following the FDA decision, and ended up closing out my March & June 0.50 call positions for a small gain. I still hold a few shares in my IRA, and will be keeping an eye on that trend line for a possible play in the coming days.
One thing I would like to say (hopefully constructive criticism is well received) is that the manner in which you were presenting your projections was what some would consider to be rude. You came on, saying the chart will show you beforehand how the big money will respond to the FDA decision, but when asked how/why this is so, and what the chart is saying, you seemed to be more in the "I know what I see, but I took the time to learn it and so should you so I'm not telling you anything" approach. Regardless of how often it is preached, "Don't trade with emotion" just doesn't always take hold in the mind of the investor. When your stock puts out good news, the news you've been waiting for, and somebody comes on saying it's going to drop to support, but doesn't want to present their full reasoning, it adds a little tension to the board.
Again, I never meant to imply that you were wrong, just that based on the information you presented at the time, it didn't seem so clear to me (and others) as to what in the chart told you big money would respond negatively after the approval. Hopefully, as we approach further dates of anticipated news, you can continue to express you opinions, but this time, with a more welcoming manner where people may respond in more of a rebuttal mindset than a defensive one.
Once again, good call on the way things would play out, and I hope my above comments are well received. Best of luck to you on future endeavors!
The OS was increased to account for the ~6.7 million shares issued to a note holder in exchange for a $5 million reduction in principal due. That coupled with today's additional ~4.5 million shares in exchange for another $4 million reduction, and the OS should show as around 121.2 million sometime over the next couple of days.
Yes, it is dilution, but that's also $9 million in debt, paid off without spending any of the company's cash on hand, allowing for almost a year's worth of operations at the last reported burn rate.
So while we can't say those shares didn't enter the market yesterday from the note holder's hands, the company itself was not dumping shares to raise money when already ripe with cash (as some would try to convince us of).
Maybe it's just me, but I would much rather have the company exchanging shares to reduce debt than truly diluting and selling shares on the open market. This way, it is the note holder's decision whether to sell, or hold, which means for now, there's no GUARANTEE that all of those shares will hit the open market.
To be fair, you also had this to say:
Only those who don't know how to read the charts will throw them out the window. A well read chart will tell you in advance how the upcoming news will most likely be perceived by the majority of investors because those in the know (the smart money) are already positioning themselves on the side they believe in so, as we get closer to the vent in question, it will be obvious where you want to position yourself.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=72013306
Now, I'll be honest, I don't have many years of experience with TA, but what I saw all day was a series of lower highs, which to most, in combination with the past several days of declines, would lead one to believe that we were beginning a downtrend. Now, if what you say is true and those in the know will be "already positioning themselves on the side they believe in", then shouldn't the smart money, you know, those will millions of dollars to invest, have had sufficient influence over the stock to provide buying pressure, and make it "obvious where you want to position yourself"?
I appreciate any input as to what in the chart should have indicated "smart money" was buying getting closer to the event today, because I just don't see anything that's that obvious on the chart.