Apple Inc (AAPL)

[Ticalc2007]

Well, your $460 puts may have given you a 200% gain today, but you also said they were "in play tomorrow", on Tuesday, when they closed at $2.18. They ended up closing Wednesday at $1.31 after a very quick spike in price at the open, to $3.34. So, given your followers from this board, how would they have done, following that call? Well, aside from about 20 minutes Wednesday morning, they never would have seen that $2.18 mark again.

Just saying, if you're going to pat yourself on the back on one call, might as well judge your performance on all of them. Also, not to nitpick here, but yes, you called "450's by Friday" on Wednesday. However, that is a wide range from $450 to $459.99, and you made it a full 8 cents into it in the last 12 minutes of the day, at a low of $459.92. I mean, yes, you did call it, technically, but given the fact that it had already pulled back $17 from Monday's intraday high, you made the call after a bearish move was already well underway.

That being said, you did well with the $470 puts call you made early Monday morning, being a quick double throughout the week, but the vague nature of such a call, and given how close it was to the $470 mark at the close Friday ($474.98) meant any quick move down, would likely be a double from the contract's close on Friday. Sure, there were, as you said, opportunities for quick doubles (and more), but the percentage move that it calls for (1.05%) is about the same as calling GOOG $785 puts next week, or GLW to hit $12.93 next week, or PBR hitting $16.13 next week.

I'm just saying, you made the $470 puts call with about 1% to move, your $460 puts call with less than 1% to move (albeit in an afternoon), and your "$450's by Friday" hit by 8 cents.

So, based on your posts a few days ago regarding AAPL, are you calling for $440/$430 next week, or do you mean, you think it will touch $449.99 or lower? I like to follow peoples predictions and plays throughout the week, and you are, at least, one of the more entertaining posters with your calls, and I just like to know what exactly you mean with your predictions?

So, are you looking for $450 by Friday, just to prove you made the right call, or are you actually looking for it to break into the $440's where you may be making a play on, say, the $445 puts or something like that?

Just for fun, I'll make a detailed prediction that won't go anything like I'm guessing:

Tuesday at least, will see a bit more downside, dropping another $5-6 intraday, to the $453-$454 range, trading will tighten up from there, through Wednesday, then we see a pop on Thursday, back up to $465, with a close on Friday, between $469 and $470. OK, it is fun guessing about what next week may bring. Now, if I felt confident with such a prediction, the $450 puts closed today at $2.18, and the $465 calls closed at $3.75. In this scenario, playing the $450 puts early in the week could net a 60-70% gain on Tuesday, followed by the switch over to the $460 calls, which at $455 would be trading a little below where the $465 calls closed today, and a bounce back to the $465-470 range could net another 50-150% gain. All good in theory, at least.

If only we could all make such predictions, and have them come true. Too bad it isn't that simple. Best of luck to you and all on this board, and have a good weekend.