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The filing indicated that December 31, 2007 was the date of Event Which Requires Filing of this Statement. So, assuming that they have bought all the shares prior to Dec. 31. Now, why would anyone bought 3.7 mil shares of a penny stock company at a high BK risk? Maybe 3.7 mil shares (assmued they bought at avg 15 cents per shares = $555K) or half million dollars are not a big deal for them, which they would risk it all for a 10-fold return. However, I believe they should have done some risk analyses and DD before making the decision to buy 3.7 mil shares of TOUSA stock. Could it be that they have found something positive in TOUSA for them to take this risk now! This is very encouraging!
2 more weeks of waiting left for the news on capital restructure!
FOUR CORNERS CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC ups their holding to 3.7 millions shares. Why? Did they own any shares before?
http://yahoo.brand.edgar-online.com/fetchFilingFrameset.aspx?FilingID=5655172&Type=HTML
My guess is that someones could be nake shorting TOUSA since it moved to the pinksheets, which may not be covered by shortsqueeze.com. Anyway, all do not matter but the imminent news on TOUSA capital restructuring plan pre-arranged with its bondholders. The only chance we longs have is hoping that the restructuring plan does not involve Ch. 11 filing! Remember that TOUSA's parenting company in Greece owns about 40 mil shares and they would be very unhappy to see all their shares cancelled in the case of CH. 11 filing! What about D.B and Highland's preferred stocks in the case of Ch. 11? Will that also be cancelled in the case of Ch. 11?
Not much longer to wait for the fate of TOUSA!
Sometimes I wonder who's selling now. I think by now all institutions that need to unload their position have probably done so already. So, who's selling? I all know who's buying as shown by the 50% shorts covering in the past 2 months. But, who's selling now?
If my memory serves my correctly, I believe that the short position on TOUSA when it got delisted from NYSE was about 12 millions shares. In less than 2 months, the shorts covered 50% of their short position while institutions and others sold at loss because of NYSE delisting and BK risk. I believe shorts will continue to cover as long as TOUSA pps remains at BK level and no news.
CFC got bought out by BoA. Maybe TOUSA could get bought out also, right?
looks like very few are interested in TOUSA stock and not much action lately. Everyone is just waiting for TOUSA's pre-arranged deal with its bondholders. We should hear that in less than 3 weeks from now. According to shortsqueeze.com, there is still 9 millions shares short position at late Dec. 07.
Buyout? I am not sure who will buy or merge with TOUSA or any other builders in stress, i.e., WCI, SPF, BZH, etc. So far, none of distressed builders got bought out or merged with others. TOUSA could be the very first when the builders consolidate in 2008. The buyout price, IMO, should be around $2 to $3 per share even though TOUSA has been trading under 20 cents for a while. The company still worth at least $100 millions dollars at buyout.
The real deal is the pre-arranged deal with its bondholders. If TOUSA can work out a deal without filing Ch. 11 with its bondholders to restructure their $1 billion dollars debts, then, we'll get some fun when the short gets squeezed on news.
Right now, all we can do is just wait for the news and hope that the news is not about CH. 11 restructuring!
Have a good day!
S&P downgrade was already known and factored in last week. Capital restructuring will occur before the end of Jan. this month. The bet is on whether this restructuring involves BK or not. The good news is that TOUSA is currently priced for BK while it has not filed Ch. 11 yet! It'll be a smart decision for smart shorts to cover before the news is released since the pps is still very low at BK level. The risk/reward for shorts to continue holding their position now and wait for the news is not good, IMO. Has anyone noticed that the short position on TOUSA drops from 12 mil shares in Nov to 9 mil shares in Dec? I believe we'll see more shorts covering in a very professional manner next week and toward the end of Jan.
If the restructuring news says anything but no Ch. 11, then we shall see the pps moving back to dollar level very quickly. Then, Tousa will be back on NYSE listing and everything will be great for longs. Shorts' reward for continuing holding their short position now and wait for the Ch. 11 (they have been waiting for Ch. 11 filing for months now) could at most be 15 cents per share at current pps, but their risk could be dollar or several dollars per share of their current profits if they buy-back now. This risk/reward doesn't make any sense to any smart shorts. That's why we saw 25% drop in short position (from 12 mil to 9 mil shares) in a month since the pps fell into BK level. JMO
Have nice weekends!
I was also pleasantly suprised yesterday as I was expecting otherwise. If TOUSA can turn green and close above 19 cents, then it'll be bullish next week and may trigger more short covering. Tousa is the rare opportunity that it's already priced for BK and yet has not filed Ch. 11 yet! There is a slight chance it might work out some out-of-court restructuring plans with its bondholders. I don't know what will happen, but hope for the best!
Have good weekends.
PS: the market sucks today!
What happened today?
Something will get announced before Feb. 1 for sure. Looks like TOUSA's "talk" with its bondholders is coming to an end and we should learn what restructuring route TOUSA will take in less than 30 days. TOUSA is currently priced for BK so if the restructuring does not involved Ch. 11 protection, then you will see a hugh short squeeze when the news come out.
TOUSA needs to default on these interest payment in order to execute whatever the restructuring agreement it made with its bondholders. Today's 8-k was totally expected and already priced in today's pps, IMO.
Interest payments in jeopardy - News? That was old news from the 8-k filing on the new amended credit agreement no. 2:
"In addition, the amendments require the Company to adhere to a Company prepared cash flow budget, which does not provide for current cash payments on its unsecured long-term indebtedness including the interest payments due on (i) January 1, 2008 with respect to the Company's 10 3/8% Senior Subordinated Notes due 2012 and the Company’s 9% Senior Notes due 2010 and (ii) January 15, 2008 with respect to the Company's 7.5% Senior Subordinated Notes due 2015. Failure to pay interest on such notes within 30 days of the due date could result in the indebtedness represented by the notes becoming immediately due and payable and as a result cause other indebtedness of the Company to be accelerated and become immediately due and payable"
No doubt that those interest payments are in jeopardy. If Ch. 11 protection is inevitable, why not file Ch. 11 protection before Dec. 31 to avoid wasting $1.6 mil (plus fees) cash to amend the credit agreement with Citi? Could an agreement has already been reached (or close to be reached) between TOUSA and its bondholders on its capital restructuring plan? If so, does this "capital restructuring agreement" involve Ch. 11 filing? If so, why TOUSA amended the credit agreement with Citi and paid $1.6 mil plus fees? If this makes any sense to you, Please help me to understand why!
thx and happy New Year
Merry Christmas - News
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/business/orl-homebig2507dec25,0,4022934.story
Engle Homes was second with 443 homes, or 8.1 percent of the market. But because Engle homes sold for higher prices, on average -- $438,300 per house -- Engle was first in sales volume with $194.2 million.
interesting......
z 0.235 168292 OTO 16:35:13
z 0.235 170000 OTO 16:14:12
z 0.215 560000 OTO 16:13:19
total shares traded AH = 898292!
WOW! are those really traded in the A.H.? More to come later?
TOUSA +74% today.
Tomorrow!!!!
60-70 cents by Xmas!!!
Damn, I sounded like a pumper now, but I LOVE IT!
GO TOUSA!!!
NO BK!
JMO
what does that "z" in front of that 35K at 14 cents transaction at 15:26 pm mean? This might be MM recording earlier transaction later today, right? SCOTTRADER did not show that 35K at 14 cents transaction at 15:26 pm.
Anyway, nice to see TOUSA closed at 23.5 cents today with more than 70% gain from yesterdat's close at 13.5 cents. Less than 2 mil shares traded today and the latest short number is 9+ mil shares. I think there is more leg to this rise on today's news on credit amendment no. 2. TOUSA just bought more time from Citi to workout its restructuring plan with its bondholders. If no BK, we should see TOUSA back to $1+ shortly and maybe relist on NYSE early next January! The more time TOUSA spent talking to its bondholders on its capital restructuring plan, the less chance it'll be involving Ch. 11, IMO.
We'll see major shorts covering and momo players stepping in tomorrow once TOUSA breaks 25 cents resistance and go above 30 cents. Now that TOUSA has until Feb 1 to strike a deal with its bondholders, we could see 60-70 cents before end of year! Nice!!!!
JMO
Homebuilders shed staff as sales continue to lag
As it was in the news back on Dec. 6
http://www.inbusinesslasvegas.com/2007/12/07/realdev.html
"Beazer Homes cut its staff nationally by 25 percent and that reduction was felt in its Las Vegas offices. Pageantry Homes and Woodside Homes also made cuts, said Dennis Smith, president of Home Builders Research. Richmond American Homes, Astoria, Centex, KB Home, Pulte Homes, Celebrate, Rhodes, Ryland, Distinctive, Engle, Meritage and Lennar have also recently cut staff."
I think it's healthy for builders to layoff excessive workers when the market is down big time! How many employees did TOUSA let go? I don't know but hope for not more than 30% of its total. Still waiting for the credit amendment no. 2 news to come out sometimes this week. Hopefully Citigroup will accept the credit amendment no. 2 and give TOUSA more time to work out its capital restructuring plan with its bondholders without going thru Ch. 11 court! A lot of HOPEs I mentioned here, but there is nothing but HOPING that thing will turn out oaky for us shareholders!
Anyone got anything from TOUSA management on credit amendment and restructuring update? tia.
Citi has only two choices: to accept or decline this amendment. I tend to believe Citi will accept because
1. the loans were just made few months ago
2. they already accepted amendment no. 1
3. what will get get out of TOUSA if they decided to force TOUSA to file Ch. 11 by declining this amendment no. 2 now? TOUSA has the first extension until end of Dec 2007.
4. Why not take the money (0.25% of loan amount as amendment fee) now and decide on what to do a month later? It's like a free money!
The real question is why TOUSA is offering Citi $$ to buy a month of time? If TOUSA is going to file for Ch. 11 soon, would the bonderholders be opposing to this offer so no cash is wasted? I tend to believe that there is a good chance that TOUSA is making a deal with bondholders without Ch. 11 but need more time to get this deal completed so TOUSA is buying some times on Citi's loans. Citi probably knows more than we do, so if they accept this credit amendment no. 2, I believe we should hear some positive news before Feb. 1 2008. Of course, all are my speculations! JMO!
one possibility is that TOUSA will strike a deal with its $1 billion dollars bondholders before Feb. 1 2008. What kind of deal? I don't know. All I believe is that, if TOUSA is going toward Ch. 11 route with its capital restructuring, then why the hell did they offer credit amendment no. 2 to Citi? This makes no sense, unless TOUSA is working on to restructure its capital out-of-court and trying to buy more time from Citi. If Citi accepts this amendment, then I expect something positive will happen before Feb. 1 2008!
A multi-billions-of-dollars company is trading for pennies! If TOUSA can turn around without Ch.11, then this is a stock to talk about for years!
JMO
have good trip!
What are you talking about? Was that a mistake from E-trades? or you were talking about another stock, huh?
Today is definitely slow and waiting for the news on credit amendment no. 2 which will probably come out sometimes next week if all lenders simply accepted the terms without making counter-offering or sort.
Have good weekends and hope TOUSA will shoot UP all week next week as you said it!
Happy Holidays!
Tomorrow is the deadline for lenders to respond to credit amendment No. 2 to get the amendment fee (0.25% of outstanding loan amount). I wonder how many lenders have already agreed to the amendment as of today. anyone knows? tia
What will happen when the credit amendment No. 2 get signed by all lenders tomorrow and the news come out early next week? Would that signify that TOUSA bought more time until Feb. 1 2008? Has anyone heard anything from TOUSA management about their restructuring progress? The longer we wait for the restructuring news, the better chance we'll get a out of court restructuring, right?
Why the short interests went down by 3+ mil shares since late Nov? Why would the shorts covered?
bottom today? nice end of day buys at 15 cents!
I wish that we all will make good money later this week and next week! Good luck!
Sector Snap: Homebuilder Stocks Rise
"NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of major homebuilders rose Wednesday after the Federal Reserve said it will work with other central banks to alleviate a global credit crisis."
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071212/homebuilders_sector_snap.html?.v=1
IMO, TOUSA will join them after the profit-takers are done later today and tomorrow.
nice buying at 19 cents today. We might close green!
JMO
What will happend next Monday when the credit amendment No. 2 get signed and PR'd? I believe that the lenders have seen the credit amendment No. 2 prior to the 8-k filing yesterday and they probably have neogoiated to get all lenders agreed on the terms as stated in yesterday's 8-k filing. It's just a matter of time for Lenders to go thru the formality of signing the amendment and get the 0.25% of the outstanding loan amount paid as amendment fee. So, what will happen when we get the PR next Monday?
Thanks!
Both sold their shares that they bought a year ago for more than $10 per share. They sold probably to write it off against their other gains for tax purposes. If TOUSA is going to file for Ch. 11 any time soon, I bet they would get into troubles by selling their shares just days or weeks before the Ch. 11 filing because that would constitue a sell based on insider info.
Now, the question is whether TOUSA will be forced to file for Ch. 11. The market force it to file back in late Oct and early Nov. The short sellers HOPED that TOUSE would file for Ch. 11 and heavily shorted TOUSA's stock so it got delisted from NYSE. They (shorts) hope that by NYSE delistment, TOUSE will get technical defaults on their loans and would be forced to file Ch. 11. Well, so far, TOUSA has NOT file Ch. 11 yet and today's 8-k just showed that TOUSE is working hard to get their loans amended! We could get a short squeeze by next Monday when the PRs of these proposed loan amendment No. 2 get signed by its lenders by this Friday. It's still a gamble, but the odds is getting better for TOUSA to avoid Ch. 11!
Tomorrow, Thursday and Friday would be interesting to watch. We could get some short squeeze late this week as lenders start to agree on the loan amendments by this Friday. If TOUSA can avoid Ch. 11 filing and restructure it capitals out of court, its 60 mil outstanding shares are worth at least $2 per share, that give it $120 mil market cap, adding to whatever the debt-for-equity exchange! The short squeeze could easily push TOUSA pps back to $4 in a few days!
The other 8-k filed for Wegman today gave an indication that TOUSA is not going to file for Ch. 11 any time soon, otherwise Wegman will not accept this change and wait until Feb. 15 2008 to get his 2007 bonus!
All signs are in favor for longs and shareholders that TOUSA will fight hard to avoid Ch. 11. I would not be suprised if TOUSA's pps jump back to 60-70 cents by early next week!
JMO
The news failed to mention that the deadline for Lenders to respond is no later than Dec. 14 (this Friday). We should see some interesting actions starting tomorrow as we approach this Friday's deadline. We could get the loan reinstatement PR as soon as next Monday morning! BOOM! $1!
JMO
This week will be interesting as Dec 14 is set as the deadline for creditors to respond to the Amendment No. 2 to receive 0.25% of the outstanding loan amount as the amendment fee paid to creditors:
from today's 8-k
(iv) Amendment Fee . Provided that the conditions precedent set forth in this Section 2 shall have been satisfied or waived by the Administrative Agent no later than December 14, 2007, the Administrative Borrower will pay to each Lender who has delivered to the Administrative Agent an executed counterpart of this Amendment no later than December 14, 2007, a fee equal to 25 bps (0.25%) of the outstanding principal amount of such Lender’s Term Loans. Such fees, if payable, will be paid by the Administrative Borrower on the Business Day following the Effective Date.
There was a massive sell-off on Fed's rate cut today. TOUSA was sold down since 2 PM also. The 8-k filing today showed that TOUSA wants to put in a good fight to avoid Ch. 11. When the market sell-off stops, we should see TOUS rises above a quarter per share! I have a feeling that we will get the PR on loan reinstatement before the year ends!
Time to accumulate and enjoy the rise back to $1 when the news come in few weeks!
JMO
DOW down almost 300 pts after the rate cut. TOUS and all other builders/financial stocks were down big times after the rate cut too. It's a good time to add if you want to bet on the proposed amendment No. 2 getting signed before the new year, Looks like TOUSA is less likely to file for Ch. 11 protection as they are and have been working hard to get the loans reinstated. IHMO, good news will come later this week or next week on loans reinstatements.
JMO
moving up slowly. Break-up of 23 cents would be bullish. Next stop is 60-70 cents. JMO
yeah. it's been very quiet since TOUS hit 28 cents last week. It's nice to see it to hold above 20 cents! It will move soon, one way or the other! a lot of people are waiting for the signal on the sidelines........
have good weekends.
from AmericanBulls.com
Daily:
Our system posted a HOLD today. The previous BUY recommendation was issued on 11.30.2007 (7) days ago, when the stock price was 0.0800. Since then TOUS has gained 200.00% .
http://www.americanbulls.com/StockPage.asp?CompanyTicker=TOUS&MarketTicker=OTC&TYP=S
Weekly:
Our system posted BUY CONFIRMED .
http://www.americanbulls.com/weekly/StockPage.asp?CompanyTicker=TOUS&MarketTicker=OTC&Typ=S
where did you find all these flyers?
thanks
not all gaps need to get filled! I think we could see $0.30s next Monday!
Have good weekends!
thanks dfall. Nice close, isn't it?
have good weekends everyone!
Real Estate Professionals returns to prominence in Central Florida with two locations
nice to see that some real estate professionals BELIEVE that Florida RE is TURNING around NOW!
http://real-estate.dbusinessnews.com/shownews.php?type_news=latest&newsid=143359
“I really believe the real estate market is going to turn,” says Meeks. “It is really a pent-up market.” He says he is using this current down time to get organized while others may be leaving the business or searching for a new company. Meeks served as the 1995-96 president of the Orlando Regional Realtor® Association and served eight years on the National and the Florida Association of Realtors® Boards’ of Directors. He first opened his brokerage in 1988.