I've updated and revised your WEEKLY BTC AIM sheet.

A buy or sell signal is initiated as soon as price has exceeded the upper (sell) or lower(buy) X_DEV line.

As long as the market order is above the minimum limit you have set the order is initiated. The number of consecutive buys or sells is irrelevant. You just follow the system signals. Sometimes you will go all in or to an all cash status but not always. Depends on price action.

Tom and all,

Happy Thanksgiving!

I came across Lichello's book on one of my first "real jobs" as a 16 year old bookseller for Waldenbooks at the local mall in 1978. Always had the itch to invest and hopefully obtain meaningful wealth by working more with my head than my hands. Working for someone else just never seemed right.

Somehow Lichello's book stuck in my mind until I actively began working with it in the dot com bull market of the late 1990's early 2000's.

It was a great help in my path to getting where I am today and I'm very thankful for that.

Cheers!

MSTR....great buying op:

MSTR recent buys

The power of scaling in near highs and scaling out near lows. MSTR is one of my current favorites and a large part of my IRA fund.

Note while the buy and holder lost -7.96% the X_DEV'r managed a +121.72% return simply by turning over shares and compounding the returns over and over. I have the cash line displayed on the chart so you can see how X_DEV went to all cash and all in several times. It didn't even have to nail the exact tops or bottoms for exceptional returns. Great play for X_DEV and AIM

The X_DEV software forecasts the price targets for each day, so it assumes the user placed limit orders at the target. So yes, it calculates the ROI based on the targets being executed precisely at the target order.

The X_DEV program also has a portfolio feature so users can enter their exact buys or sells in the event they did not enter on the exact target the program called for and the dollar amount they invested. This would calculate ROI and targets based on their inputs.

Aimstudent and Aimagic,

I was in error on an earlier post regarding the calculation of Buy and Hold % return and X_DEV % returns listed on the X_DEV software.

The calculation is NOT made from the starting date. It is made from the initial buy price.

Even though the start date on the chart was 2/2/2021 the initial buy was not until 2/23/21 at $761.5

(690.02/761.5)-1 = -9.39%


On the chart with the starting date of 5/2/2021 the initial buy was on 5/19/2021 at $422.86

(690.02/422.86)-1 = +63.18%

Apologies for the confusion!

MST 50% starting cash. It may be that the safe bet would be to start with 50%. Need further study.

Examples of shorter and longer term time frames on MSTR with starting cash at 5% and 100%

There is no hard and fast rule as too how many months of data you need to backtest to get a good optimization. It's just important to get a minimum of 2 buy signals and 2 sell signals. Since you are using the spreadsheets instead of the program now, you should check your optimization against the charts, the 8sma and the dev factor to see if you are hitting good signals and you can't get the ROI any higher by any significant degree.

Then start a new play by using those settings going forward. It's probably best to be diligent in the early days of a new play for trend shifts, less so as the play matures. The starting cash is probably the least important metric in the setup. Even if you are off optimal initial starting cash the system will auto correct for that metric as the play matures. I haven't noticed major differences in ROI by altering starting cash by a large degree. On some plays it might but on average it doesn't seem to, especially as time goes by.

Checking the parameters for optimum ROI every 3 to six weeks should be all that is needed to keep performance near optimal.

So far, the optimizations look decent though I haven't analyzed everything to completion. I will let you know when I have and if I've found any "mistakes".

The X_DEV program does show profit and loss based on date you started (for the Buy and Hold profit/loss) and the day of your first buy (X_DEV profit/loss). Using the program this is usually the same day. The spreadsheet may differ.

Since I have the benefit of using the X_DEV program I will start by grabbing at least 6 months of data and then finding a significant low for a starting point, but at least having 2 buys and 2 sells for a decent backtest study. You are trying to find an average trading range to wrap the bands around. If a play has had a huge trend shift recently (like MANA for example), you won't be able to get a good representative sample for an X_DEV study and will have to wait a few weeks for the range to develop.

Without the benefit of the program I would pull up a chart on tradingview and look for a decent ranging period over the course of the past 6 months to a year. Find a low in range and start the backtest study from there.

BTW, it is very interesting to see that though we used different parameters for MSTR our ending ROI's are nearly identical. Speaks to the robustness of the system.

Your spreadsheet skills are vastly superior to mine.....I'm still very much a rookie. I'm trying to wrap my head around your MAX drawdown reasoning and starting cash calculations. The starting CASH formula seems great!

Perhaps you can expand a bit on the formula's for the Drawdown columns?

Aimagic,

Yes, X_DEV is a tool created to capitalize on short term trades over longer term time frames to compound returns. This is how I've always traded and it has been a successful strategy. I developed it after months of trying to tweak AIM to fit my philosophy and trading style. This is why AIM and X_DEV share some similarity.


You can start any play at any time. I think the Zones I came up with will serve as a decent starting metric for initial cash to allocate to the play. After about 20-30 days the user can optimize the spreadsheet and it should sort out all the metrics to the point of "robustness" going forward.

I rarely trade more than 5 assets at a time so I have sheets for all of them and keep them updated daily. It only takes a few minutes.

You have caught on very quickly so no worries about messing up the optimizations. Your MATIC sheet looks great!

Aimagic,

I use a combination of "eyeballing" the X_DEV bands (in relation to the high and low bands) and the charts on the bottom of the sheet to determine significant trend changes. The directional indicator is great for immediate bullish or bearish trend by viewing whether the green +DMI or the red -DMI is on top. Green bullish, red bearish. The blue ADX line indicates the strength of the trend. Rising ADX stronger trend, falling ADX weaker trend. The RSI, CCI, Williams %R, and DEV factor can determine how oversold or overbought current price action is. The strongest signals are when bullish or bearish divergences occur on these indicators.

I usually won't make a decision to change an X_DEV band parameter until at least 2-4 weeks of price action to confirm the trend change. But as stated before, if price has exceeded your last sell for 3 days, or if price is lower than your last buy for 3 days it is a strong signal that a significant trend reversal has occurred so a band parameter change may be necessary soon.

The $150 is a personal choice. I don't like to make extremely small dollar amount trades and would rather wait till a significant signal is given in the form of a larger dollar amount. This amount can be anything you prefer, and will lead to some ROI change depending on how small or large the amount you decide on. You will note on the X_DEV program there are parameters for minimum buy and sell amounts. This is why I included that feature in the sheet.

Ethereum - X_DEV update:

MSTR X_DEV update:

Buying op...

MSTR

Microstrategy - MSTR X_DEV update:

Polygon - MATIC X_DEV update

Chainlink - X_DEV update:

The Graph - X_DEV update:

Hey Aimagic,

I have revised your CARA weekly sample. (See below)

"...XDEV does seem “sensitive” in the sense that small changes in the optimisable values can make huge, sudden, differences in returns..."

First and foremost is candidate selection for X_DEV. CARA is a very low volatile play. X_DEV can and will work on low volatile plays but the lower the volatility the more "sensitive" the settings must be....especially if you are doin a very long term study. X_DEV is a tool meant to be used on high volatility plays optimized for a 3-6 month time frame. I created it this way to suit my personal trading style and philosophy. In this way it differentiates itself from AIM which is more suited for low volatility longer term "safer" investments. As for robustness, that is a relative term. X_DEV settings are more robust for it's intended usage and less robust for usage outside of intended purpose.

"...the size of the initial STOCK holding seems to have a dramatic impact..."

This is an indication that your setup was faulty. When you get both buys and sells in the same row, that is also the result of a faulty optimization. First, I usually never start any play with less than $5000 in combined shares and cash. Your levels were too low to start. The reason you were getting buys and sells in the same row was because your xdev band settings were too close together. The high and low for that day were hitting the upper xdev band and the lower xdev band on the same day. This is a problem with low volatile plays and tight xdev band settings. Note I changed the SMA on the X_DEV bands to a 4sma. Longer period SMA's are needed on low volatility stocks. The optimization settings I have now are correct so that problem is no longer an issue.

Hey Aimagic,

"...What is the pink cell containing “0.016” in “I5”?"

On rare occasions it is beneficial to adjust the X_DEV bands to accommodate a change in trend. You will note I changed the color of the cells in the low % band column when I changed the formula to reference the 0.016 in I5. See cells I108 and on. This brought the band closer to price to initiate some buys in the uptrend.

"...Can you explain the “150” in the MARKET ORDER formula?"

The 150 is a minimum limit on the number of dollars that can be bought or sold to initiate a buy or sell signal. In other words the buy or sell will not initiate if the signal calls for less than 150 dollars to be bought or sold. You can change this number to suit your personal tastes but note it will change performance a bit (up or down).

"...Are you planning to fill in the empty “CCI 16” column?"

The column is not empty. Note the 16 in cell BA4. That number (16) is needed in the calculation of the CCI. See the formula in columns AX and AY.

"...I changed the conditional formatting for columns K, M and R-Y so that the threshold for Actual Shares Bot is not “1” but “0”. Is this a mistake?

Yes....it was a mistake. I changed it to 1 for some reason when I was tinkering and forgot to change it back to zero. Damn, you have a good eye! lol

"...Does this sheet have an example of the “glitch” in M144?"

Yes, I just changed it from a minus to a positive. It didn't change any results.

"...Please be patient while I try to catch up with your latest thoughts."

No worries, take your time. I'm glad to have the interaction.

Buying ops:

Revised Zone %

I think the following will be easier to code. One can always use what % they like if price is closer to a line rather than in the middle of a zone. For example, if starting a new BTC play today I would start with 48% cash since price is closer the the middle line.

CARA (3/2014 - today) Daily data

X_DEV +511% vs Buy & Hold -1%

Aimagic,

I want to toss the following idea past you.

Here's my thinking. As I stated before, you want to start with more cash or all your cash if the play is at or very near a major low in it's trend, and you only want to start with no cash or very little cash if price is at or near it's high in it's trend. Obviously you want the available cash when the play drops to average in at lower prices. Vice versa when the play is at it's lows already you want to buy a bigger position to sell in partial amounts as the price rises.

So then the problem becomes how do you know where price is in it's "trend". The easiest way I know of is to measure the price against a reasonably long moving average. In the example below I've plotted a 48 day simple moving average and then plotted lines 14% and 28% away from it on either side. Using this method I've created "zones" to use for determining what the proper starting cash % should be. Granted these are more or less guidelines then exact figures but I think they should serve as a decent metric for calculating.

Now the only problem is coding the zone % into the spreadsheet without the use of several columns. Damn thing is too big already...lol.

I'd be interested in your thoughts.

Aimagic,

Since it's fairly clear my thoughts aren't welcome on the AIM thread I will only respond here from now on. I don't suffer fools well, and ignorance in the light of facts is too frustrating for my tastes. There is a meme in crypto that says "Have fun staying poor". If some want to stay closed minded and refuse truth, so be it.

Now to your excellent study on EOS. Well done! Ranging plays always work best with X_DEV and AIM. In the early days of X_DEV I had a stock screen called "Range Riders" that I found on the MSN network. This screen included all the best tech stocks that were recently range bound. Perfect for X_DEV.

I'm not surprised by your results on EOS using our optimized AIM MAGIC method. It has always been clear to me that human interaction, especially if said human has a modicum of trading experience, will always be beneficial and likely to out perform static "black box" systems. I think all those that tinker with AIM know this instinctively as well but due to some feeling of orthodoxy seem hesitant to admit it.

Notice how the compounded gains increase greatly as more time passes. I believe all my current spreadsheets will see exactly the same compounded progression. The math is such that buying low and selling high in increments is the safest most profitable strategy and one which I have employed for most of my trading career.

Still working on the starting cash component. Currently looking at some sort of interplay between the RSI indicator and the Dev factor. I'll keep you posted.

Hopelessly ignorant and really stupid people.

Paul Tudor Jones - Billionaire hedge fund manager
Henry Druckenmiller - Billionaire investor
Elon Musk -Billionaire - richest man in the world
George Soros - Billionaire Investor
Michael Saylor -Microstrategy CEO- Billionaire
Tim Cook - Apple CEO-Billionaire
Brian Armstrong-Coinbase founder - Billionaire
Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss-Gemini Founders-Billionaires

No....not the people listed above. Those are all the people who have made billions of dollars in their lives due to financially smart moves....and they all have invested millions or billions of dollars in Bitcoin.

And yet some people who probably have less than $10,000 to their name to invest disparage Bitcoin as either a ponzi, a scam, used by criminals on the dark web and overall just to risky to be a viable investment. "I'm skeptical"...they say. "I'm staying away".

Even when you point out the same things were said about the internet in it's early days. The internet is a fad, it's only used for porn and crime. It will never last. Still these people bury their heads in ignorance. Even when you point out just a 3% allocation in bitcoin would greatly enhance their portfolio ROI and back it up with charts and facts. No need to go 100% in if "skeptical"....prove it for yourself! Nope, no way....it's a scam that will be banned. It will never go anywhere but to zero.

Truly laughable.

Hey Aimagic,

"...Your MSTR sheet shows your starting cash ($30,000) to be 6,500% your initial MSTR purchase of 1 share ($650). Expressed as starting cash %, 98.48% of your portfolio was in cash. Do you remember why you chose to start it this way?"

Since I was starting with only 1 share of MSTR at $650 I started with 5k starting cash then raised and lowered that figure until I achieved the optimal % return for the backtest period at that time. Actually the return could be higher if I raised the starting cash higher (than 30k) but only buy a small degree. You want to get to the point where you get the largest % return increase then stop optimizing if the degree of % change becomes minimal. So $30,000 was optimal. After 30k the % change became to small to warrant anything higher.

"...would you happily start with the cash level indicated by the sheet today, effectively optimised over 6.5 months of data?"

From my experience of optimizing hundreds of plays it's obvious to me that the lower the price is in it's trend the more starting cash you want to use to begin the play. Obviously you want to capture the lows then let X_DEV sell higher when it tells you to. However, I'm not totally convinced that the ratio of portfolio value to cash value is the best metric to judge starting cash on a new investment just yet. I've been doing some research into this area recently but don't have anything concrete yet. I will let you know as soon as I do.

"...Unless you can tell me that the choice of the 8 sma is the best for all assets, for some reason?"

In my windows based program, before crypto was invented, I used a 12 sma to cover a wide variety of stocks. Now I use an 8 day sma on high volatility stocks and a 3 day sma on crypto. The more volatile the play the shorter SMA time frame you need. I experimented with a number of different sma periods and found those seem to work best. A program that could change the sma for optimization periods would be great, but I have to use what I have at present.

I haven't fixed the glitch yet so be aware that it could show up again and you will have to fix it manually if it occurs. Perhaps the current optimal settings are preventing it for now. We will have to see.

I have the "3 day rule" for stop loss triggers.

In the X_DEV User's Manual, rapidly falling or rising trend changes are discussed. Basically it says, if you go to all cash and the price continues to climb, exceeding the final sell price for more than 2-3 days, you can consider reentry, since a new trend may be indicated.

If you become fully invested and the price continues to fall, and is lower than the final buy price for more than 2-3 days, it suggests that the trend may have turned somewhat negative, and you may wish to sell part or all of your position.

If you have a short term horizon and are trying to benefit from quick "in and out" trades, these are pretty good rules to follow. Such rules are conservative and prevent big losses. Of course, the stock may turn around and go up right after such a sale.

But, if you have done a good job choosing your stock and have confidence in its long term earnings prospects, and the prospects for that industry or sector, you may choose to hang in there and let XDEV do its thing, reoptimizing as appropriate. If your time horizon is 1 year or longer, you might wish to ride it out.

XDEV is a tool, and it makes potential trend changes pretty easy to see on the chart. But the user has to decide how to use the tool.

I've sent them both just now. Enjoy!

Mark Twain said:

"Never Argue With a Fool, Onlookers May Not Be Able To Tell The Difference"

So I'm done trying to tell people the automobile is much better than the horse and will replace it in time. Especially when the infrastructure is built.

If they want to ride a horse as the rest of the world zooms past in self driving Tesla's than so be it....ggg.

Simply amazing how some people refuse to see what is right in front of their eyes. I can understand bias, not wanting to be wrong in one's assumptions or opinions but to deny facts or to deny truth when it practically slaps you in the face is another matter entirely.

It has to be some sort of strange wiring in the brain. Similar to the left right political divide in politics. The left tends to embrace a socialistic philosophy even though in the history of mankind it has never worked. The USA became the single greatest superpower in history due to the constitution and capitalism. Early on, even before the constitution was dreamt of early settlers even tried Socialism. The producers did all the work for those who couldn't or didn't want to. Very easy to guess which way that was going to end. Those that had the best talent and produced more grew tired of supporting the lazy and felt they should be compensated more for their efforts than those that sat on their asses all day and did nothing. Capitalism was born.

Historical context:

One of the first settlements, Jamestown was located in Virginia. How was Jamestown saved from failure? It was saved from failure by the new governor John Smith, who made all of the settlers work and said "who shall not work, shall not eat".

History, facts, truth. The brains of those that embrace
a leftist ideology simply deny that which is true. I am not saying these same people lack intelligence. If they did they wouldn't be able to control the press and the educational systems which indoctrinate more to their views every day. The ideology on the right is not perfect either, not much is but at the very least is has proven more effective and generally better as it embraces freedom and individuality instead of conformity and subservience. Trying to debate these issues is futile and exhausting.

Refer to the quote in the beginning.

MSTR update for new X_DEV spreadsheet users:

MSTR update

MSTR X_DEV Update:

A new buy signal hit as of Friday 11/12/2021:

Doesn't matter what their predictions are the fact is over the last 10 years gold returned a laughable 4.48%!



Your cheery picked example won't wash either. The facts:



Can you beat those numbers at the casino? Hmmmm? Yea, didn't think so.

"... did it once just to tick it off from having done so during my lifetime."

Now I can understand your bias at least. So you had a bad trade and got Rekt....it happens. Don't let it ruin the rest of your life. Get back on the horse man! Lol!

Sent AIM and X_DEV sheets of Bitcoin. If you want any others I have available let me know. Enjoy!

Firebird400....

You'll need to set up a gmail.com account. For some reason there has been problems with other email accounts other than gmail.

Let me know after you have set it up and I'll send the sheets to you.

Historical stock average return for past 30 years adjusted for dubious inflation figures is 8.29%. If you are buying now and holding for 20+ years I'd cut that figure in half. The interest on your zero coupon bond will likely be similar to the pathetic stock market returns or worse. A house purchase is subject to maintenance cost, taxes, fire, location depreciation, etc. Gold has had terrible returns over the last 10 years. Here is a quick search of the prospect for gold for the next ten years from google:

What will gold be worth in 10 years?
The World Bank predicts the price of gold to decrease to $1,740/oz in 2021 from an average of $1,775/oz in 2020. In the next 10 years, the gold price is expected to decrease to $1,400/oz by 2030.

Not to mention it's subject to confiscation, theft and counterfeiting.

Again, Bitcoin has appreciated on average +171% for the last 12 years. Bitcoin is digital energy. It's likely to be the best investment today, tomorrow, next month, next year, next decade, next 1000 years.

You can disagree on all of the above but the facts remain. Choose to ignore them at your own risk.

I wish someone bought Bitcoin for me a year ago, 5 years ago and certainly any time longer than 5 years ago and held it. I've bought it for my kids and grandchildren. Do yourself a favor and pick up a few Satoshi's.

EVEN IF'S IT IS JUST 3% of your portfolio!!

Is7550

The tulip bulb mania lasted 3 years....1634 - 1637 then utterly collapsed. Bitcoin is 12 years old and has suffered 3-5 drops around 70-80%, yet overall has averaged +171% per year since inception. Tulips are a plant. Bitcoin is technology.

Can we put the Tulip Bulb analogy to rest now? There is no comparison. To suggest their is any similarity is ignorance beyond reason for people to lazy to do the research and understand the facts.

Governments all over the world are beginning to embrace Bitcoin, starting with El Salvador, the Ukraine and likely Brazil, and many African and third world nations. They will not only see it's usefulness as sound money compared to their corrupt hyperinflated currency controlled by corrupt government officials but will see the value of tax generation. They will see that banning it will be like banning the internet and leave their economies crippled and weak as all those that reject better technology.

Acceptability, availability and ease of use are all on the rise. Any review of on chain metrics will clearly identify the facts of this.

The question is why do you deny these facts and have such a negative bias in the face of these facts? What is it that you fear? Do you simply hate the loss of government control over your individual freedom? You rely on them that much and prefer they dictate your financial or other matters that effect your freedom and individuality? Do you feel government knows best and that socialistic or communistic philosophy is best? Show me when in the history of this planet that it has ever worked?

Bitcoin and blockchain technology were created to lessen or eliminate control by corrupt government officials. The natural order is freedom not subservience.

No matter your bias, it has not faded and will never fade into a dark corner. It is a light that may actually save you and those like you, from yourselves.

No Adam, a better analogy would be the clueless fools that think bitcoin is like the tulip bubble are like the people that thought the automobile and AC electricity would never last.

lostcowboy,

I've used tradingview for years and years and have the pro subscription plan. I've looked at Pine Script but never had the ambition to figure it out. And because X_DEV scales you into and out of a play I'm not even sure you can program that using Pine Script. I am no longer interested in selling X_DEV anyway. The only reason I sold it in the first place was because my programmer Yong put hours and hours into the programming and I felt he deserved the compensation for his efforts. If you figure it out have at it. I would love to see it available to everyone. I still offer the spreadsheet to anyone interested for free.