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Hi Bob, not sure you can get 9% gain per year, I have not run the numbers.
Are you sure you want to sell at 30%, why not 50%, just wondering.
About your ARR, in excel you would want to use the IRR function, but I don't know how to set that up.
I ran your numbers on my financial calculator.
I put in a positive $245,188.26 as the FV(future value,) -$1,000.00 as the pmt(payment), 156 as N(number of payments), and calculated for I/Y(interest rate per year).
I got a interest of 6.56% for the 13 years.
Hope that helps.
Buying the dips, and then some!
This is about Periodic investing, I know some of you are interested in that. I have not done any spread-sheeting on this. This is just a idea.RL, had some good ideas in Twinvest and Synchrovest.
One is not investing all each period, invest 3/4th and let the 1/4th build up. So here is the idea, instead of using your first stock price for your code or multiple, use the 52 week high price. In a bull market The price is close to the 52 week high so you are putting in 75% or more each period, there is a point where you sell all stock and start over (I think that will be between 40% and 50% profit on all money invested). Note if you wanted to you could add a second logic rule based on a moving average crossing.
One of the weakness of twinvest is it does not have a way of reinvesting all that cash at the bottom of the bear market, that would be where we take part of Synchrovest, Synchrovest kelp track of average cost, and used a multiple of it to determine what percent of cash to invest/reinvest.
Just thought I would throw that out there.
Hi Daisy, Don Carlson has passed away, but you can read on here about his AIM modifications, one of them involved a moving average crossing to delay buying and selling.
Don Carlson I think some of the members have his spreadsheet.
Robert Lichello wrote two books,"Superpower Investing" in 1974, and "How to Make $1,000,000 in the Stock Market Automatically!" in 1977. The first book was designed for the layman who buys stock each payday or monthly in other words for people doing DCA. Synchrovest uses the same amount of money as DCA But I like to think uses it smarter. I have a better explanation on my forum. Also I have some free spreadsheets that you can try. Just put the same stock prices in a DCA spreadsheet, and the Synchrovest spreadsheet, also in your value averaging spreadsheet. I think in a go nowhere market you will find that Synchrovest gives you more bang for your buck. When I made the spreadsheet, I found what I believe was a error on Robert's plan he had Synchrovest selling all stocks when you had a profit of 100%, I found that you ended up with a greater final profit, if you have Synchrovest selling at 50% profit.
A better explanation of Synchrovest
Synchrovest spreadsheet
Instead of Dollar Cost Averaging, you may want to try Robert Lichello's Synchrovest plan.
instead of value averaging you may want to try Robert Lichello's Synchrovest plan.
Hi Marc,
How or what are the rules for choosing an average twinvest price. HOw or what are the rules for using high low twinvest How do you combine both?
Standard Twinvest uses your starting stock price, Average twinvest uses a moving average that you have to put in. For the high/low you would us the 52 week high/low price
If you are at your home, it sounds like what you need is a range extender. Here are some at fry's electronic store.
Fry's Electronics online
Are you talking about a external antenna, or a USB WiFi adapter? If a usb WiFi adapter, then I would turn off the laptops built-in WiFi. on my laptop there is a external switch for turning it off.
www.aim-users.com This is a copy of www.aim-users.com that is on archive.org.
www.aim-users.com Please make this message a sticky until aim-users is back on line. Thanks.
Yes Neko it is AIM, and I think the spreadsheet is from AIM users web site.
I came across this Spanish site talking about AIM,Twinvest, and Synchrovest. twinvest
Here is the translated version. translated version
Turns out the spreadsheets are the ones that I made, with just the labels changed to Spanish. If he had given me credit for my hard work I would not be mad, but he makes it sound like he did all the work,so he wants people to give him donations for the spreadsheets! Note the AIM spreadsheet is the one from AIM user web site
Hi Alton,I no longer have my AIM spreadsheet that I made, to many computer crashes. But in one version of it I had it set up where I could vary how much of the buy would be added back to portfolio control. With it set at 0 percent that would be similar to a constant value plan. Set at 50 percent is standard AIM, if you increase it beyond 50 percent you get to much feedback and you end up investing your money to fast in a down market.
In Robert Lichello's book around page 43 he goes into a lot of detail about why he adjusts portfolio control the way he does.
Static electricity, and circuit cards. If you are removing circuit cards they are sensitive to static electricity. If the cards are installed they are grounded to the case, and the static electricity that you may generate by walking on carpet, or vacuuming should not harm them.
Lightning is a whole different ball of wax. Lightning is up in the millions of volts, and thousands of amps!
Hi 1Step, sorry about not getting back to you sooner. I have been to that site "moneytology" in 2010 I believe, I did suggest that he check out Synchrovest. I did not see any response.
Here is my opinion of DCA and what can be done to improve it, From post 10.
In her book Practical Formulas for Successful Investing by Lucile Tomlinson, Mrs. Tomlinson has a chart that shows how long it would take for a DCA plan to reach 40% profit, the time period varied from 2 1/2 years to 10 1/2 years long, most were about 5 years long. She seemed to be recommending stopping the plan at that point, as she goes on to say that after reaching 40% the plan tended to just follow with the market. Another thing she said was that If one were to combined a DCA plan with a Constant ratio plan one could get greater profits.
In other words later in a DCA plan it becomes noneffective.
Michael Edleson, In his book Value Averaging also felt that DCA becomes noneffective for long term investing. He came up with two plans in his book, one called growth DCA and the other called Value Averaging.
About Twinvest, Mr Lichello added the chapter on Twinvest in the second edition of his AIM book, why did he not just add a chapter on Synchrovest? I think it had to do with copyright law, book contracts, and the fact that he used two different publishing companies.
It is my feeling that the different investing methods preform in this order, from lest to most.
DCA
Twinvest
DCA plan with a Constant ratio plan
Value Averaging
Synchrovest with selling set at 100% profit, Lichello's original setting.
Synchrovest with selling set at 50% profit, I got the Ideal of reducing the selling setting from Mrs. Tomlinson's 40% sell setting.
When using the AIM data set from the AIM book, 10, 8, 5,4, 5, 8, 10, 8, 5, 4, 8, and repeat. Synchrovest with sell set at 50% quickly pulls away from all other investing methods. this is due to two things Synchrovest always sells all stock, so it has very few stocks at risk during the start of the next bear market. Also Synchrovest has a very aggressive buying policy during the market crashes.
Its all about the math. First let me say that in his book Robert Lichello advises not to add new money regularly to a aim program, he was afraid the new money would upset aim's mechanism. He could not see the logic of adding new money at the same time you are selling stock, but he did not know of the idea of VEALIE ether. I am not sure if he had ever read of value averaging or not. In my opinion both VA and AIM, are variations of the old Constant Dollar plan, which is now known as the Constant Value plan. In Value averaging, the portfolio control is changed each month and stocks are bought or sold to make stock value equal portfolio control. Aim has a more complex buy sell rule, still I personally don't think AIM's mechanism will be effected. I have not TESTED this but if I were adding new money to aim I would add it at the same ratio as current Stock Value was to Cash.
For the people interested in using AIM with Options, you may want to checkout Jeff's web site, jjjinvesting
Hi Daisy, about cash targets. Have you looked at the cash burn page?
cash burn page
That page uses starting ratios of 50:50, 67:33, and 80:20, and see's how long your cash lasts as the stock price drops. I would see how far your index funds dropped percentage wise in the last bull/bear cycle and using the cash burn page to get a good idea of what your cash/stock ratio needs to be for your Vealies.
Improvements to Synchrovest:
Use Michael E. Edleson's, Growth DCA spreadsheet to come up with the periodic installments for Synchrovest.
Something I am also thinking about is that total money invested should be adjusted for inflation. This should cause a upward bias to average cost, which should keep you from selling out to fast.
If inflation is 5%, $100 at the beginning of the year will only be worth $95, that means your $100 has to increase to $105 to keep the same earning power. So it makes since to adjust Synchrovest for inflation.
Another thing to think about is when Synchrovest makes a sell, instead of selling all stock, only selling of the profit. Most people don't like the ideal of selling all the stock.
Improvements to Value averaging:
Use both of Michael E. Edleson's spreadsheets, Growth DCA and Value averaging.
Use Robert Lichello's ideal of starting out putting 75% in stock 25% in cash and adjusting as the market demands. use Robert's Ideal of a multiplier, Value Path divided by stock value. This multiplier would be used with the periodic investment from the growth DCA spreadsheet.
You would also want to keep track of average cost, adjusted for inflation. If stock price dips below average cost, that's when you want to bring share value back to the value path.
About selling stock, I do not recommend selling stock if the stock price is below average cost, even if the share value is above the value path. I think it would be better to wait until the stock price is X% above average cost before selling off stock to bring the share value back in line with the value path.
Also once stock price has recovered to average cost, it may be a good ideal to increase the value path to be equal to total cost.
Hi all, over on my board I am looking to start a discussion, on wether the logic rules for Value averaging and Snchrovest can be combinded to the improvment of both.
Hi all here is my thinking, there ar several ways of over coming the downfalls of DCA. one is to combined DCA with a constant ratio plan (now called asset alocation). Growth DCA, which uses not one but two growth rates, to increace the periodic amount. Value Averaging which uses the same formula as Growth DCA, but adds the rule of selling or buying enough stock to return to the value path generated by the two growth rates. In his spreadsheets Michael E. Edleson also adds the ability of having a starting value. Here is the best web page for explaning Value Averaging. Here is where you can get Michael E. Edleson's Spreadsheets.
As far as I know Synchrovest is the only formula that makes use of the average cost per share. But it does not have any adjustments for inflation or market growth.
I have not built any spreadsheets yet but I beleive that both value averaging and Synchrovest can be improved by combinding some of the rules of each.
I am thinking that we need to lay down the logic rules and then build some public domain spreadsheets, maybe on google doc's. All input is welcome.
I was wondering if anyone has had any thoughts on combining Synchrovest and Value averaging?
Long term Dollar Cost Averaging!
Are there any problems with long term DCA? Most people have seen these web pages that talk about lump sum VA short term DCA. They usally say it is best to invest lump sum, then they go on to say if you are investing periodically long term that's the best you can do. Their reasoning for this is the stock market moves in a random fashion with a positive bias. Now to me it seems that while the stock market does move randomly, it sometimes has a positive bias, and sometimes a negative bias. Corresponding to Bull markets and Bear markets. Normally Bull markets last longer and have more gain than Bear markets. While most people would say this is good, for the long term DCA investor what usually happens is, in the bear market the price will plunge below the average cost which causes the investor to panic and sell out at or near the market bottom.
Hi Tom, actually I meant that my forum has been quite for to long.
Sure is quite around here. Wish I could say I had a brand new strategy, but I don't. Anyway I thought I would say hi. I'll try to start writing again.
Take care,
Clifford
Hi Daisy, if I was you I would run the test for ten years. I have some spreadsheets you can use for testing. Just click on the link in my signature and at the bottom of the header you come to a link to the spreadsheets.
AIM Money Machine, Android app.
Free AIM Program for Android
I just found this yesterday, so I don't know how good it is.
Not sure but you may be able to use what you have. Best I can tell you have the geforce GT 520 with 2 g bit memory. But I am unsure if this is a separate card or a chip on the motherboard. Looking at the back side of the computer I am thanking motherboard. Nvidia says the gt 520 will do multiple monitors.
best buy answers
nvidia gt 520 specs
Conrad, good catch. I put up the wrong link, it is fixed now.
does a system restore NOT affect the BIOS?
A system reset will only effect windows,. The bios does a quick check of your computer and then starts loading your os. I think some computers have a master password for bios, you may want to call tech support and ask, or do another search on the internet.
Conrad, I think you are trying to decipher my highlowdemo spreadsheet. you can download it from the link in the header, I just now posted it. the spreadsheet is not based on AIM it is based on (William %R), %R = (Highest High - Close)/(Highest High - Lowest Low) * -100.
I did change it a bit though, I know that I used a positive 100. Also instead of going between 0 and 100 percent my formula goes between the the high and low percentages you set it up with. I think I used if statements for that. I did not come up with this idea on my own. In her book Practical Formulas for Successful Investing by Lucile Tomlinson, she talks about her compromise plan. If you can find it the book is worth reading.
It won't let me. It asks for current password.
do you mean it asks for the hard drive password, or is this the password for getting into bios, that most people don't set.
If this is the bios password you may be able to reset it, by removing the little battery on the motherboard. Make sure you have the computer unplugged before removing the battery. After about 15 minutes put the battery back in, plug in the computer and try to get into the bios again. it sound to me like you have a virus or you had a spike in power that scrambled things.
Hi welcome to the board, in the header are a lot of links. One of them is the one you want, to get started. aimware One of Toms friend gave away a free excel spreadsheet on there. That should get you started.
Hi Conrad, I downloaded Vortex last night, and it ran fine for me. I have vista ultimate with all the updates on this laptop. I normally download and run freeware. I noticed that your program was small in size, it could be that it needs some type of run time files, to run. That I all ready have on this computer. That's my best guess.
I would go back to the people who had the problem, and ask what type of operating system they had. also if this is a (net) program, the computer has to have the right version of net on the computer for the program to run.
I'll try to get back to you later to night. I have to find out what is wrong with my car, the speedometer refuses to move.
Hi Conrad, wish I was a big enough computer nerd to help with the debugging, but I am not. I would say start with the forums and library on the MSDN site msdn
Surely if your programer puts up a post with all the info about the computer he is programing on, he can get help there for free.
Wishing you luck with this problem.
Clifford
Hi latstarter, no its not annualized at all. ''its just a simple return. It takes the (value of the stock plus the value of cash), subtracts total amount invested, and then divides by total amount invested. Just a simple total return. Because there is buying and selling I think you have to do some type of IRR calculation to get a annualized return, just not sure of how to go about it.
Hi guys, I had SIG moved to the AIM group. Also I found my spreadsheets online, and have provided a link to them.
Come and get them!
Today I have been searching around, and found that (www.archive.org) was nice enough to save all my spreadsheets that I had on geocities.com. So here is the link.
http://web.archive.org/web/20091027001231/http://geocities.com/lostcowboy5/Spreadsheets/
Hi Steve, I have been mostly here. About the spreadsheets, while I had a AIM spreadsheet, it was a very simple one, which I no longer have. But I don't think that you are talking about it anyway. I think that you are talking about ether the synchrovest spreadsheet or the lowhighdemo spreadsheet. Send me a email to lost_cowboy@hotmail.com I'll see what I can do.
PS: you can get a free AIM spreadsheet here.
www.aim-users.com/aimware.htm[tag]Software for use with A.I.M.
[/tag]
Take care,
Clifford
Thanks Tom, I'll get right on it.lol