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Major Trend
Relative Strength Rankings
Of Liquid Exchange Traded Funds by Robert Colby
Based on a new, updated version of the Screening Method for Analysis of Relative Strength, I ranked the more actively traded ETFs (exchange traded funds) as of the posting date, above. For details on this method, see my book, pages 604-609.
Research studies show that ETFs ranked in the top fifth of the list (with a rank of 80 or higher) have a greater probability of outperforming the market in the months ahead. Conversely, ETFs ranked in the lower half, below 50, have a greater probability of underperforming the market in the months ahead.
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Rank Name, Symbol
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99 Brazil Index, EWZ
98 Latin Am 40, ILF
97 Austria Index, EWO
97 Mexico Index, EWW
96 South Korea Index, EWY
95 Energy SPDR, XLE
94 Energy DJ, IYE
93 Emerging Markets, EEM
92 Australia Index, EWA
91 Belgium Index, EWK
91 Spain Index, EWP
90 Energy Global, IXC
89 Natural Resource, IGE
88 Italy Index, EWI
87 Utilities SPDR, XLU
86 Utilities DJ, IDU
85 Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
85 South Africa Index, EZA
84 Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
83 S&P SmallCap 600, IJR
82 Euro STOXX 50, FEZ
81 Value MidCap Russell, IWS
80 EMU Europe Index, EZU
79 Sweden Index, EWD
79 Russell Mid Cap, IWR
78 Netherlands Index, EWN
77 Germany Index, EWG
76 S&P SmallCap 600/B Value, IJS
75 Powershares Dynamic, PWC
74 S&P MidCap 400/B Value, IJJ
74 S&P Europe 350 Index, IEV
73 Powershares Dynamic OTC, PWO
72 Russell 2000 Value (Small), IWN
71 EAFE Index, EFA
70 Growth Small Cap DJ, DSG
69 S&P MD 400 iS, IJH
68 Growth Russell Midcap, IWP
68 MidCap SPDRs, MDY
67 Transportation Av DJ, IYT
66 Materials SPDR, XLB
65 Extended Mkt VIPERs, VXF
64 France Index, EWQ
63 STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
62 United Kingdom Index, EWU
62 Canada Index, EWC
61 Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
60 Value 1000 Russell, IWD
59 Value 3000 Russell, IWW
58 Rydex S&P Equal Weight, RSP
57 Russell 2000 Small Cap, IWM
56 Growth BARRA MidCap 400, IJK
56 Singapore Index, EWS
55 Consumer Non-Cyclical, IYK
54 Global Financials, IXG
53 Growth 2000 Russell, IWO
52 S&P 500/BARRA Value, IVE
51 Software, IGV
50 Cohen & Steers Realty, ICF
50 Telecommunications Global, IXP
49 Industrial DJ US, IYJ
48 Real Estate US DJ, IYR
47 Taiwan Index, EWT
46 Industrial SPDR, XLI
45 Switzerland Index, EWL
44 REIT Wilshire, RWR
44 Dividend DJ Select, DVY
43 Vanguard Total VIPERs, VTI
42 Russell 3000 (Cap W), IWV
41 Total Market DJ, IYY
40 Retail H, RTH
39 Russell 1000 Big Cap, IWB
38 Consumer Cyclical DJ, IYC
38 Consumer D., XLY
37 Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
36 Fortune 500, FFF
35 Value Large Cap DJ, ELV
34 Financial DJ US, IYF
33 Financial Services DJ, IYG
32 S&P 500 SPDRs, SPY
32 Hong Kong Index, EWH
31 S&P 500 iS, IVV
30 Telecom DJ US, IYZ
29 Financial SPDR, XLF
28 Consumer Staples, XLP
27 S&P 1500 iS, ISI
26 Global 100, IOO
26 Malaysia Index, EWM
25 Japan Index, EWJ
24 Global Titans, DGT
23 TOPIX 150, ITF
22 S&P 100, OEF
21 DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
21 Value Small Cap DJ, DSV
20 Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
19 Fidelity Commonwealth, ONEQ
18 Growth 3000 Russell, IWZ
17 Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
16 NASDAQ 100, QQQ
15 Healthcare DJ, IYH
15 Growth Large Cap, ELG
14 China 25 iS, FXI
13 Healthcare Global, IXJ
12 Bond, TIPS, TIP
11 Bond, Corp, LQD
10 Health Care, XLV
9 Biotechnology, IBB
9 Technology SPDR, XLK
8 Bond Aggregate, AGG
7 Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
6 Technology DJ US, IYW
5 Technology Global, IXN
4 Gold Shares S.T., GLD
3 Technology GS, IGM
3 Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
2 Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
1 Semiconductor H, SMH
0 Networking, IGN
KBN,
Good site...thanks...
Gizmo,
The data is consistent with Nas market internal too...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$NAMO,uu[d,a]ddlayyay[dc][pd20,2!a25!a-45!f][vc60][iLk14...
Dimension,
I'm seeing price resistance between 38.01 and 38.73. Do you feel there's better than a 50/50 chance of the short-term bull blowing past 38.73?
Good URL. Thanks 4Godnwv
Yes. Here's my PMs watch list:
BGO FCX SSRI DROOY AAUK ASA ABX GG RIC IAU AU SWC NEM KGC RANGY GLG LIHRY GFI MDG VGZ AEM BVN GLD HMY
Any you like here for the short-term?
SM,
Hang in there! Upside potential is limited between 38.01 and 38.79.
FA,
Thanks for your opinion.
EFA, SPY, and DWCP or $EMW are my choices in my 401K equivalent. I just yesterday moved all to cash from EFA since I felt a correction was coming.
Appreciate you taking the time to respond...
FA
Would appreciate your TA on the following. Thanks in advance.
http://img11.imgspot.com/?u=05/34/05/EFA020405.png
OT: Crushed Nuts Sir?
A little old man shuffled slowly into an ice cream parlor
and pulled himself slowly, painfully, up onto a stool.
After catching his breath he ordered a banana split.
The waitress asked kindly,
"Crushed nuts sir?"
" No," he replied, "arthritis."
thanks :)
Good info OFC. What's the source?
let the good times swing on...
Market internals in a pre-signal area for a sell on 2 Feb 05. http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$NAMO,uu[d,a]ddlayyay[dc][pd20,2!a25!a-45!f][vc60][iLk14...
My current plan is to short @ 38 with a stop of 39. http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=qqqq,uu[w,a]daclyiay[db][ph.02,.20!d21,2!b5!i!b200!b21!b...
Could it be short sellers are covering positions, causing a rally, and money is leaving the marketplace since volume was light?
Concur with your conclusion FA. Around 38 would be a logical spot for resistance and continuation of the intermediate-term correction.
Gizmo, FWIW
SPY rally could go to 119. http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=SPY,uu[w,a]declyiay[db][ph.02,.20!d21,2!b5!i!b200!a113.5...
QQQQ to 38. http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=QQQQ,uu[w,a]declyiay[db][ph.02,.20!d21,2!b5!i!b200!a38!b...
Right now these are the levels I expect to add shorts at provided we don't rally past these levels on heavy volume.
Interesting Gizmo. How come you are still net long the SPX? I trade the SPY and got out at 117 because the risk/reward ratio seemed to have more risk than reward. In any event, I'm out of the QQQQs too and expecting a rally to short it like you.
The only thing I'm long in now is in EFA, an ETF for the EAFE Index. My current stop is 153.40.
Hope you are doing well!
Gizmo,
You got it covered.
Investor behavior will tell all the next couple of days.
With the weekly major index charts looking down, I don't see much of a change for a sustainable rally.
Dimension,
Thanks for your private message you sent me recently. I found the info useful. Keep up your good work...
Hard to see Monday closing in the green with market internals loosing strength. See http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$NAMO,uu[d,a]ddlayyay[dc][pd20,2!a25!a-45!f][vc60][iLk14...
WAG1 36.20
Thanks--good URL
Not necessarily a risky business
Study of commodities trading debunks stereotypes
By Mark Hulbert, MarketWatch
Last Update: 11:43 PM ET Jan. 25, 2005
ANNANDALE, Va. (MarketWatch) - Commodities have gotten a bum rap.
They have been stereotyped as inherently risky, for example. If you are a "responsible" analyst, you devote yourself to studying stocks and bonds. Those who invest in commodities are considered loose cannons, the cowboys of the investment arena.
As with many stereotypes, of course, this one has the germ of truth. Jim Rogers, perhaps the most famous champion of commodity investing, is probably even better known as the guy whose idea of investment research is motorcycling around the world. He no doubt would find life as a stock or bond analyst intolerably boring.
But the stereotypical view of commodity investing is also wrong in almost all major respects. And it's important to discard it, especially if the next several years prove to be as difficult for the stock and bond markets as many currently suspect it will be. In that event, commodities may be the one asset class that provides attractive returns.
Consider a study completed last year by two finance professors: Gary Gorton of the University of Pennsylvania and K. Geert Rouwenhorst of Yale. Entitled "Facts and Fantasies about Commodity Futures," the professors paint a picture about commodities that is significantly at odds with the stereotype.
Let's start with the notion that commodities are risky. This is just not true, according to the professors, who constructed a comprehensive index of commodity futures contracts covering the period from mid 1959 through March 2004. As judged by the volatility of this index's returns, commodities over this 45-year period were some 19 percent less risky than the S&P 500 (SPX: news, chart, profile) .
The professors also found that there were significant differences in the kind of volatilities experienced by these two asset classes. For example, a disproportionate amount of stocks' volatility came from months in which they lost big, while an outsized portion of commodities' volatility came from months in which they scored big gains. As a result, the professors conclude that stocks have greater downside risk than commodities.
On a related subject, the professors found that commodities are negatively correlated with stocks. This means that they often are zigging when stocks are zagging, and vice versa. So diversifying a stock portfolio into commodities has the potential to reduce risk by a large amount.
The bottom line: Commodities are not inherently risky. The source of commodity futures' much-vaunted risk therefore is not the commodities themselves, but the ability to invest in them on very little margin.
What about the notion that commodities produce better returns than other asset classes? The professors say that this is not so. Over the last 45 years, their commodity index produced returns that were almost identical to that of the S&P 500.
To be sure, it's impressive that commodities were able to match equities' returns while nevertheless reducing risk by 19 percent. As a result, they outperformed stocks by a significant margin on a risk-adjusted basis.
Still, this result is a far cry from some of the claims made on commodities' behalf. Fellow MarketWatch columnist Marshall Loeb recently quoted Rogers as saying that "you would have made more money in the last 45 years in commodities than in stocks and bonds." The professors' research shows that this is accurate about bonds but not about stocks. (Read Loeb's archived column.)
What if you become convinced that commodities deserve a place in your portfolio? Can you just as well invest in the stocks of companies that are involved in the production of commodities?
Many think that you can. Loeb, for example, quotes the manager of the T. Rowe Price New Era Fund (PRNEX: news, chart, profile) , Charles Ober, as recommending commodities equities.
But the professors found that commodity futures have provided far superior returns than such stocks.
Over the last four decades, their commodity futures index more than tripled the cumulative performance of the average stock involved in the production of those commodities. The professors conclude: "an investment in commodity company stocks has not been a close substitute for an investment in commodity futures."
Any way you approach it, therefore, it looks as though commodities deserve a prominent place in your portfolio.
You cycle guys/gals might appreciate this cycles press: http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P102159.asp
Good read--thanks for sharing...
NASDAQ 100 IS ALSO OVERSOLD AND NEAR SUPPORT... The Nasdaq 100 Shares (QQQQ) also gave big a big chunk of its morning gains. Volume decline in the bounce however. Here again, little has changed. The QQQQ is testing chart support along its October peaks (ranging from 36.37 to 36.47) and its 200-day moving average (currently at 36.10). Its 20-day CCI oscillator shows it to be oversold and giving a short-term positive divergence. That may suggest that the weakest of the major stock indexes is reaching a point where a rally attempt can be attempted. It had better do it pretty soon. That's because it's downside correction is getting dangerously close to the point where it could start sustaining longer-term damage.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=qqqq,uu[w,a]declyiay[db][ph.02,.20!d21,2!b5!i!b200!b18!b...
WAG for Friday 35.53
Excellent read...thanks for posting...
Should see QQQQ support between 200-day SMA and confluence of five Fibonacci projections now around 35.53. See http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=QQQQ,uu[w,a]declyiay[d20040824,20050124][ph.02,.20!d21,2...
FA, your points about volume are telling a story. Seems to me when prices are down and volume are rising, the current market trend has to be weak. Probably aggressive new short selling occuring...
I'm looking for a bounce around 36.18--35.54.
bob3, Wonder if the info is from Jan or Dec 22?
no steve
Thanks 4Godnwv
Has anyone been tracking GLD? If so, what's your TA on it?
Thanks for the alert of your new board. Looks good.
it worked!
Good luck Kaja!
I'm sitting it out for a while. With the weekly turning over negative, http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=QQQQ,uu[w,a]weclyiay[dc][ph.02,.20!d21,2!b5!i!b200!b18!b... I don't feel comfortable with a long position.