SERVING GOD, FAMILY, AND COUNTRY!
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
John Bollinger: What’s Behind The Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Video
New I Fund for 2024
After years of delays, the TSP’s I fund will track a new index starting in 2024. https://federalnewsnetwork.com/tsp/2023/11/after-years-of-delays-the-tsps-i-fund-will-track-a-new-index-starting-in-2024/
ACWI is the new ETF, which will help us track the new I Fund. https://www.msci.com/documents/10199/7997f714-2b51-d7fb-dca2-ed9ff978d508
I Fund, new
I will go 100% cash on November 28, as momentum appears to be turning over. Nice 10% run since October 27th!
C Fund, Daily Chart
C Fund Setting Up for Consolidation Next Week
As I write this, C Fund is up 7.5% since its October low.
The weight of the evidence suggests a consolidation starting next week. C Fund is overbought, nearing a fundamental 61.8% Fib retracement level from the October 27 low, and coming up on a significant intermediate-term downtrend line that started on July 27.
The linked chart shows the C Fund testing its mid-October high and nearing an upside breakout. Odds for an upside breakout are enhanced by the relative strength of large tech stocks in the Nasdaq 100, which pull the rest of the market higher. The critical question is, "Will the market break out next week or consolidate?" My forecast is consolidation before a breakout.
C Fund, Daily Chart
Good morning, baja6string.
I appreciate your input. I pulled the string this morning.
My portfolio mix will be 60% C Fund and 40% F Fund at the day's end. May the Force be with us!
Cheers!
Get Your Rally Cap Ready
The C Fund is oversold, coming up on support, and there's a positive divergence between price and the CCI.
I plan to move 60% into the C Fund when the parabolic SAR reverses. May the Force be with us.
https://schrts.co/SKmuzMWj" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" >https://schrts.co/SKmuzMWj[tag]C Fund, Daily Chart [tag]
Long-Term F Fund Investors: Take Note
Many of the forecasts I hear regarding bonds seem to be based upon what bonds have done for most of the last 40 years without acknowledging what has happened more recently. The chart below shows that 30-Year T-Bonds were in a rising trend from the 1982 low, but in early-2020 they made a long-term top, and began trending downward. That down trend lasted long enough for price to violate the rising trend line, which is strong evidence that the long-term trend has now shifted downward. Technically, we should expect that this down trend will continue for a long time, probably decades.
Bonds: Don't Forget the Long-Term Trend
When I Jump Back Into the Equity Side, I'm Going to be with C Fund
Large Cap Stocks Are A Better Bet for the Rest of 2023
Welcome back! Don't be a stranger.
The U.S. Dollar Index fell through important chart support sending a message that further losses may be looming
Next potential support at 98.78. TSP investing implications annotated on linked chart.
US $ Chart, Weekly
Market timers are more bullish now than at the top of internet bubble
Why this is not a good time to put more money into stocks
Target Date Funds: Are They the Air Fryer of the Investment World?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rh4znVw7uZ0&ab_channel=ExpeditionRetirementShowbyGoldenReserve" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" >https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rh4znVw7uZ0&ab_channel=ExpeditionRetirementShowbyGoldenReserve[tag]Are you curious about target date funds and why they're so prevalent in 401(k)s? What exactly is a target date fund? Why do they feel like a safe option as you approach retirement? And most importantly, are they truly worth it, or just like the Air Fryer pretending to be more than a convection oven?
This video explores how target date funds work and why they make you feel comfortable as retirement looms. ?? As you get closer to retirement, taking less risk seems appealing, and these funds provide a specific "target date" for the transition. But here's the catch – there's a FEE involved for something you could potentially manage yourself, much like that convection oven in your kitchen that replicates the Air Fryer's capabilities.
Shockingly, many people don't even hold onto target date funds until retirement! So, what's the deal? Are these funds as reliable as they seem, or is there a reason why they're not a long-term investment solution?
Buyer, beware, as we reveal the truth about target date funds, ensuring you make informed financial decisions. While they might appear fancy and sophisticated, you may end up with a convection oven when you thought you had something fancy. ??
[/tag]
Opps
I didn't get the correction this week as expected, but the pump remains primed for one, as there are negative divergences on the price charts with its indicators. Because of this, I will stick my neck out and invest 40% into the F Fund today, as when the correction starts, I suspect the gains from equities will rotate into bonds.
F Fund Chart, Weekly
Here's a big reason you can expect bonds to start outperforming stocks
Extreem Greed on 13 June
Extreem greed is driving the market at the moment.
Fear & Greed Index
Looking for Correction Week of 12 Jun
"The average recommended equity exposure level among short-term stock market timers (as measured by my Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HSNSI) is now higher than 97.6% of all other daily readings since 2000. That’s well inside the zone of extreme bullishness that previously signaled tough times ahead." ~ Mark Hulbert
NAAIM Exposure Index
Thanks for your comments, B6S.
The S Fund was the relative strength winner this week. Check out the chart at the link below, which shows the one-week performance of C, S, F, and I funds on one chart. Make sure to right-click on the data slide at the bottom of the chart and select the past week.
One Week Relative Strength Chart
According to Ned Davis Research, money market funds over the past 13 weeks saw the fastest pace of asset inflows since July 2020
That money will be invested.
ICI: MMF Assets Hit Record $?5.?4 Trillion (?Crane $?5.?83T); Fed'?s Jefferson
Bonds Outperforming Commodities?
There could be life for F Fund.
$CRB vs. AGG Weekly Chart
Short sellers are more bearish than they’ve been in a long time
If we take seriously the message of the short sellers, we must therefore conclude that the market is in a very high-risk zone right now. “The lesson of history suggests there are several possibilities,” Professor Ringgenberg said in an interview. We could be facing “a short-term blip a la the 2013 possible default or a structural economic downturn a la 2008.”
Either way, now doesn’t seem like the time to throw caution to the wind.
Short sellers are more bearish than they’ve been in a long time
The real reason to expect L Fund to rally
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-real-reason-to-expect-bonds-to-rally-e918f767?mod=panda_marketwatch_author_alert
L Fund, Weekly Chart
Selling I Fund on Cinco de Mayo
Momentum indicators are rolling over on EFA (I Fund). It's time to take profits and look for a reload spot.
May the 4th be with you!
I Fund, Weekly Chart
"Bear Shift" Changes Character of the Market
https://decisionpoint.com/articles/decisionpoint/2023/04/bear-shift-changes-character-o-774.html
Selling C Fund Today
The C Fund appears to be rolling over and it's time to lock in gains. At day's end, will be 60% G Fund and 30% I Fund.
C Fund, Daily Chart
Long-Term C Fund
C Fund had a long-term buy signal at March's end using the Fast MACD settings of 5,35,5. See the referenced monthly chart. It's the green dashed vertical lines.
C Fund, Monthly
Expect more money flow to I Fund
International stocks outperform, decouple from U.S. equities by ‘unusual degree’
Well done, baja6string!
I'm currently 2% L 2065, 42% G Fund, 28% C Fund, and 28% I Fund.
What's keeping me off of S Fund is its relative strength among the stock choices we have is the least and the direction of the US Dollar and its impact on S Fund. See the referenced chart.
I'm hoping to pick a spot to become fully invested at the next short-term correction.
$US Dollar Weekly Chart
Taking a Starter Position in I Fund Today
I like the I Fund's relative strength compared to the C and S Funds. Took a 30% position in the I Fund.
I Fund, Daily Chart
You are welcome, Snippy! Glad to be of help.
Happy New Year, Friends!
With the US Dollar starting to base, I'm looking for S Fund to outperform relative to C and I Funds. Check out my comments on the linked charts.
US Dollar, Weekly
Next Leg Up: C Fund or S Fund to Outperform?
C Fund and S Fund have been in a basing mode since May 22 until now. My hunch is S Fund will break out soon and be the place to park the $$$. See my note on the linked chart.
Weekly Relative Performance between C Fund & S Fund
Intermediate-Term Sell Signal
With today's Friday close, I got an intermediate-term sell signal on the weekly C-Fund charts. See the red vertical line on the right-hand side of the chart. The Fast MACD histogram is now in the sell configuration.
C Fund, Weekly Chart
Tracking the Dollar
Nine-Year Look
Regression to Trend: 115% Above Trend in November
Quick take: At the end of November, the inflation-adjusted S&P 500 index price was 115% above its long-term trend, up from 106% above the previous month.
C Fund, Regression to Trend
Huge Test of Short-Term Trend on Tap
The heavy red trend line and the green pitchfork regression line are aligned for resistance. Mr. Market's intermediate-term trend is about to be tested.
C Fund, Daily Chart
Elephant in the Room--On Balance Volume(OBV)
Bullish and bearish divergence signals can be used to anticipate a trend reversal. These signals are genuinely based on the theory that volume precedes prices. A bullish divergence forms when OBV moves higher or forms a higher low even as prices move lower or forge a lower low. A bearish divergence forms when OBV moves lower or forms a lower low even as prices move higher or forge a higher high. The divergence between OBV and price should alert chartists that a price reversal could be in the making. A bearish divergence is happening now.
C Fund, Daily Chart
Getting Ready to Take Some Profits
The Fast MACD indicator and its histogram are in a presignal area for a sell.
C Fund Daily Chart
Bearish investor sentiment is the key to sustaining a stock market rally into 2023
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-bearish-investor-sentiment-to-sustain-2023-rally-2022-10
Have Enough Folk Thrown in the Towel Yet?
I think so. Thoughts?
NAAIM Exposure Index