You can't always get what you want, but if you try sometimes, you get want you need. Rolling Stones
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Krom or anyone else, I know someone who speaks, reads and writes Chinese who I will be seeing soon. I need the Chinese version of the Sinopec article to show her. Can you post it?
DeGen
When I get back in town in a few days I will ask Dan K directly about this. I emailed him about the last AGM not being telecast on the web before the meeting but got no where. Company decision not to telecast. I think if Dan K informs the BOD of the shareholders intentions the BOD may change their position.
I think everyone here would want an open conference call of the quarterly meeting over the web. I know other companies that do it and the shareholders really appreciate the openness of such meetings. The best part is always the questions from shareholders at the end. There is no reason why ERHC doesn't do this, but if it takes a shareholder vote to force the BOD into doing it, let's get er done. I would first ask if they will do it voluntarily before going through the trouble of a shareholder motion.
Has anyone seen a PR about the 6 month extension from another source besides ERHC? Did the JDA or Sinopec ever send anything "official" out to the public?
I will go out on a limb and predict an over 30 cent close today. As the news gets digested it looks like the news is really good news as it appears more and more of a sure thing that Sinopec will go forward with Phase 2, it is just a matter of when. An additional six months is nothing when one looks at the BIG JDZ picture. It takes time to put all the pieces and players together. Patience, patience, patience.
stoneMt, it is obvious you don't have hands of stone. Don't be so quick to judge, 5 long months before the extension ends could mean a slow decline. But one never knows with this stock. Could be Phase 2 announcement for Blk 2 next week and up to the 40s or higher.
The 6 month extension given by the JDA feels like ERHC (the shareholders) were in high school Principal's office for some concocted reason (associating with bad characters like Sinopec) and given 6 months of detention as punishment. This was a very harsh sentence considering that ERHC (and the shareholders) were "forced" into associating with Sinopec through no fault of their own. The strange part of the penalties given out was that Sinopec left the Principal's office laughing and skipping away getting no punishment and better off for doing the bad deeds it has done.
Maybe the French like chocolate and don't want to buy it from the Swiss.
Middy, I sent you a PM and I am not sure if you can PM reply or if you even check your PMs. My email addy is in the PM is you wish to reply.
Great letter, middy. You have my seal of approval. Keep up the good work. Thanks for all you do here.
Troy, DK's comments make perfect sense to me when viewing them from ERHC's perspective. It is ERHC's opinion that they are working closing with its consortium partners. How can you fault ERHC's opinion, if that is what THEY believe. Can you prove otherwise?
As far as the comment "we don’t know and can’t predict what will happen next" there is nothing wrong with that either. ERHC is indicating they do not know when a disclosure may come. How could they know, unless the disclosure was ALREADY made? How can ERHC predict the future? It appears that is what DK is saying similar to what Crappie says all the time, "nobody knows nothing".
What DK said make perfect sense to me and I did not find it funny at all. Your poking fun at DK is not appropriate in this case.
Krom, your biggest assumption that the SP will drop from today's 31 cents (current price) to 25 cents 30 days from today is VERY questionable. You assume buying back in at about 25% of the current price. That's what makes the trading theory look good on paper. You have lowered your cost basis 25%, so of course you will make more money than if you keep your old higher basis. See what happens if you sell at today's price of 31 cents and then have to buy back in at 35-50 cents. Doesn't look too good versus holding your current basis of 31 cents. So your entire theory depends on buying back at a lower (25% lower) basis. That is a lot to hope for. And great if you can do it.
I am holding my shares and will not play your silly "tax" games, it is just too risky. I have enough risk just holding my existing shares, like everyone else. Patience, patience, patience.
Pepsi, the idea of having a non SEO puppet on the BOD is not a new one. Back in Jan 2009 I suggested that one of the largest shareholders here BSK2007 "run" for the BOD. Here the old post:
DegenerateGambler Share Thursday, January 15, 2009 11:40:38
Re: bsk2007 post# 149257 Post # of 222485
bsk2007, with the amount of shares you "control" have you ever thought about getting closer to the action, like the BOD?
Although, I have disagreed with you in the past, I would pledge my million plus shares in your behalf. Maybe its about time a SEO outside was on the inside or should I say its about time an IHUBer is on the inside. Give it a thought.
I have also suggested that Krom do the same, but since bsk2007 controls over 10 million shares, I though she would have a better chance.
Now that Midtier, is in the limelight, I think he is the most qualified of the the three and from the reaction/support given here I believe getting Midtier on the BOD is possible.
I with you middy (my 1,500,000 shares + my mom's 40,000)
I wonder about the pull out of ONGC. Are they current with what they owe Sinopec for Phase 1 drilling costs? Or are they trying to walk out on the entire project without paying? I doubt it, I think they are just fed up with throwing money at this project where the Chinese are running the show. ONGC may be fed up with getting little or no information from Sinopec without having to pull it out of them and then get vague answers. ONGC may believe they have no control over the Sinopec's costs as they may be padding the bills. ONGC may feel they are being left out of any decision making and being bullied by Sinopec.
Does this sound familiar?
The big difference is the ONGC must fork up these costs and may not be happy about this.
After an hour and a half of no trades, the first trades through are 10K shares at 32 cents (at the bid) bid/ask now at 32/25. Not a very good opening minus 3 cents!
I understand why a rich Nigerian would be buying a watch in America. The African watch I used to own was a joke. It was never on time, always late. Sometimes is was days or even weeks off on the calendar portion. Sometimes the time hand stood still, sometimes the time hand even went backwards. I was relieved when I sold the watch on eBay, even though it cost me a $20 bill to get rid of it. The buyer was Krom, who should have known better than to buy an African watch. But Krom is smart and is taking the watch to a Swiss watchmaker to see if the watch can be fixed. The watch has major problems and even the Chinese will not produce knock-offs of this particular watch. The Chinese know better than to get involved with something African. If they even do get involved they refuse to discuss the results in public.
Ps: Krom, any luck with that watch yet. Do you think the watch will tell the correct time on September 14/15?
I think most of us are fed up with disappointment. Missing time lines / deadlines has become all too common place, that now that is the norm. How can one not feel the Sept deadline for Sinopec to commit or not commit to Phase 2 will just not occur on Sept 15? I do not even want to commit on having the drilling results announced on Sept 15th. There is little chance of that. I sure hope both announcements are made, but I just will not count on it. This is Africa, need I say more.
Ps: I put my African watch on eBay and the only bid I received, the bidder wanted me to send him the watch wrapped in a twenty dollar bill. The funny part about it, I accepted the bid!
Pss: Krom, I hope you enjoy the watch, it only caused me aggravation and disappointment.
Krom, although there are many flaws in your logic about the SP reaching $2.37 on Sept 15th the main flaw is the calendar you are using. You see, this is Africa and you MUST use an African calendar (I have one for sale if you don't own one). It is impossible to count days, weeks, or fortnights on a African calendar in any given month. There are just too many intangibles on the calendar. The ink may be smeared, the days maybe missing, there maybe "extra" days, the lettering maybe blurred, etc. etc. thus making the calendar impossible to read or even understand, yet alone count down the number of days to a future event. So even though your math maybe correct, the calendar you are using is a Western calendar and should not be used.
When Luis indicated end of August, did he say which year?
Since there are many smaller players in the JDZ that do NOT have a free carry, those companies "owe" Sinopec, the operator, a great deal of money for their share of the drilling expenses. Certainly enough time has passed since drilling was completed for that "bill" to have become due and payable. Can anyone find out if these smaller companies have paid up or is the money still owed. Are their financials private?
Maybe SEO was going to buy shares of ERHE with all that cash when the AIM listing was completed.
Although I am happy about the small rise in the SP from the close on Friday of 34 cents to the present SP of 36 cents there is one thing worth noting. We had a "gap up" this morning from the close of 34 to the first trade of 35. Not a big gap up, but a gap up in any case. Those that believe all gaps will be filled will say the SP must return to 34 at some point. However, I am still waiting for that BIG gap down in late April from the mid 40s to the mid 30s to fill. Now that was a real gap, not just one minuscule cent. IMO a one cent gap should not even count as a "gap" since it is the normal "spread" between the bid and ask.
So let's get down to business and fill the big gap down from April and get the SP back in the mid 40s. It would be nice to finish this week in the 40s. Between the "Total" effect and the upcoming Sept 15 deadline, the SP should be rising.
It is not a flip, because the coin is sooooo heavy, nobody can toss it up in the air, so no one can can it heads or tails. And everyone knows a coin flip is a gamble!
Troy, you say Total + Phase 2 takes away the risk. Does that mean this investment in ERHC is no longer a gamble? (lol)
Ps: Off to the casinos to apply my "skill"!
Troy, you say I have "fear" of a negative decision by Sinopec on Phase 2. You are confusing my "worry" about why the SP is not rising with fear of a negative decision. I do not fear a negative decision, because, like Middy I believe Sinopec WILL go forward with Phase 2. Although I am not quite as confident as Middy, I am fairly sure Phase 2 will happen. If I had any great doubts or "fear" of a negative decision, I would be selling. I still question why the SP is falling so much only a few weeks before the deadline (although it is a questionable deadline). Sure the MMs are taking the SP down to make a market on low volume, but what I do not understand is why so much. After a nice climb up from under 30 cents in mid/late July to a high of 42 cents on Aug 11. From that high of 42 the SP has dropped about 20% to the present price of 34 cents. That indicates more than the MMs taking the stock down. The question is, IS the market always right? Does "some" unknown insider know something and is selling? You are correct to say there is not enough volume to indicate that there is real negative information that has leaked causing the lower price. So I will guess, it just the traders, like you indicate. Those who got in recently in the 20s and are taking a nice profit for only a few months of investing. There are many traders out there, so let's blame them for the lower price. I can not blame a hidden "leak" of bad news about Phase 2.
Krom, I believe "luck" is zero sum game. Everyone gets so much good luck and si much bad luck during their lives and hopefully it will average out. However, there are those blessed with extra good luck and those stuck with extra bad luck, but those numbers should average out. Some say you make your luck and in many ways that is true. Those skillful gamblers (Blackjack players) that win most of the time make their luck with their counting skills. Those skillful poker players do the same. So in the long run skill wins over luck. However, even skillful gamblers, as well as investors can have a "run" of bad luck. I just hope, based on skill, that any run of bad luck will be compensated with a run of good luck and the overall "luck" at least balance out in the end.
Both you and I (and others here as well) that have invested in WGMGY have had our run of bad luck when the government unfairly intervened in internet gambling. I can only hope that the bad luck we have had in the past will be offset by some good luck with another stock (ERHC). IMO, investing in ERHC and WGMGY were investments that after proper DD, one could see into the future and this DD would be rewarded. But somehow when the government got involved with WGMGY the future was changed for the worse. This almost happened with ERHC when the DOJ raided the company, but fortunately that episode has passed. Now, I anxiously sit back and wait for some of my (our) past bad luck to be compensated with some good luck with ERHC. Hopefully there is a zero some game with investing "luck".
Middy,
My last comment on whether investing in ERHC is a gamble. I believe both investing and gambling involve some form of luck, although both gambling and investing also involve skill. Many investors are skillful and many gamblers are skillful. Many investors depend on luck and many gamblers depend on luck. One must realize that "luck" in involved in finding oil. But also skill in involved in finding oil. With that said, I have to repost an old post of yours and ask you why you use the word luck?
"Since saying Phase 2 was a done deal worked so well I thought I'd push my luck and say a few more words on the matter.
Phase 2 is a certainty.
Phase 2 is a cinch.
Phase 2 is all sewn up.
Phase 2 is a lock.
Phase 2 is inevitable.
Phase 2 is a sure thing.
Phase 2 is an open and shut case.
Phase 2 is a shoo-in.
Phase 2 is a sure bet.
Phase 2 is a foregone conclusion.
Phase 2 is set in stone.
Now if that doesn't keep the rally going, nothing will." quote from Midtier Aug 5, 2010.
I see you use the word luck and the words sure bet, does that mean this is some form of gamble? Isn't luck associated more with gambling than investing although luck is involved with both?
As Clint Eastword likes the say, "Do you feel lucky?".
Troy, I too am confused about how the ERHC share price is going in the wrong direction. IMO, the anticipation of the removal of the Phase 2 decision should act to propel the share price upwards. This past week, only 3 weeks ahead of the decision, the share price softens (down ~20%). This should not be happening. I can not explain it so I continue to have patience, but I am not a happy camper. The commitment to Phase 2 is a very BIG event, it signifies a great possibility of commercial. Nobody throws good money (tons of money) at a prospect that is not promising. Can you explain why the share price went down recently? I can't, so I am confused as well.
StoneMt. Patience, patience, patience.
Middy, so if I short a stock that is not investing? Is shorting a gamble? If the shorts win, don't the longs lose? There is a winner and loser on whenever the SP changes value.
middy, maybe your definition of "risk" is different than mine. But in my mind if their is ANY kind of risk involved, it is one form of a gamble or another. Maybe you equal gambling only with casinos and lotteries, but everything in life is a gamble, from driving your car to flying on a plane. Risk and gamble are one in the same. Your very words "I do not associate normal exploration risk found in every oil and gas company" speaks for itself. Again risk and gamble are one is the same.
Strass, Norm and Cliff probably invested in ERHC when the price was over 80 cents years ago and now are drowning their sorrows in beers. I think we should join them. I buy the first round.
Alwright, if no announcement, no real SP effect IMO. Only a BIG price drop IF Phase 2 a no go is announced. Watch our for 10 cents. IMO, there is little likelihood that Phase is a no go. Delays in announcements/events are the norm in Africa.
Ps: I believe "Norm" is sitting a the bar right now having a beer with Cliff. Cheers!
After today, only 16 trading days until Sept 15. The run up SHOULD start real soon. I will predict a slow climb back up over the next three weeks into the 40s with a big pop into the 50s after the announcement on Sept 15 that Phase 2 is a go. If no announcement no pop.
Yes, sneak, I think most of the investors (bettors) here are betting that the amount of oil is far greater than the 32 million barrels the present price represents. A definite "overlay"!
I also believe there is at least a little gamble in everyone and if you are invested in ERHC, this is part of the little gamble inside you that has come out.
Gremlin, let me try to explain a little something about odds, especially what is termed in the industry as an overlay. Let's use a horse race for this example. A horse named ERHC is a 20 to 1 shot on the betting board. But you know according to the Racing Form, ERHC's actual chances of winning the race are 10-1. That is if the race was run ten times, ERHC would win once and lose all the other times (9 losses). But you look at the "payoff odds" and for ERHC they are 20 to 1, so you bet on ERHC because there is an overlay. Let's say this same race occurred ten days in a row and you bet ERHC at 20 to 1 and according to form ERHC one once and lost the rest. If your bankroll was $100 and you bet ten dollars each day, at the end of ten days you would have $200. Quite a nice profit! Actually 100% profit on your original bankroll.
So you say I would not be invested in ERHC (the stock not the horse) if I thought it was only 10 to 1 to find commercial oil/gas. Well what if I think the stock will be $5 if commercial oil/gas is found. If the SP was 50 cents, a 10% chance of oil would be a break even situation. If the SP is over 50 cents, only a 10% chance of finding commercial would not justify investing (betting) in the stock. Anything under 50 cents would be an overlay and would be a good investment. At present the SP is 36 cents and a 10% chance of finding oil represents an overlay. Right now the "market' (the bettors) are saying the chance of finding commercial oil are less than 10% based on the SP (and if commercial is found, the value of the oil would justify a $5 SP.
But with all that in mind, you are absolutely right, because I believe there is a far greater chance than 10% of finding commercial oil and the SP reaching $5 based on the amount of commercial oil/gas found. But what do I know, I am just a degenerate gambler and know nothing about oil. But I do know an overlay when I see one and IMO ERHC (the stock) is an overlay because the odds of finding commercial are MUCH higher than 10% and the market is wrong in their estimate of ERHC's value (or the oil asset value ERHC controls).
IMO, the stock market is the world's largest casino and any particular stock is just another casino game to be played (gambled on). Place your bets, place your bets.
If you have seen the movie "21" you should realize that the gambling is not based on a single hand of BJ (your win all or lose all proposition). The real gamble is based on a long series of BJ hands where the "house" doesn't always come out ahead if the player is a professional player (card counter) and can get away with playing without being 86ed (barred) by the casino. You example was poorly chosen.
The gamble with ERHC is IF there is a commercial oil/gas find in the JDZ/EEZ. The market places those odds fairly high at this point in time based on the 37 cent share price. I think that SP puts the odds of a commercial at about 1 in 10. What do you think the odds are? Hoe about the others here, what do they think the market places the odds on finding commercial?
Deadeye, since I am a "gambling" man, I would like to propose a wager on the seven events you list. I bet 3 or less are completed if you bet 4 or more are completed. You have 4, 5, 6 or 7 events completed and I have none, 1,2 or 3 events completed. You can name the stakes but I suggest one year membership in IHUB. Plus a bonus of a 3 year membership if either zero or 7 events are completed. Completion date December 31, 2010 We can use YankeMike as the judge to resolve any disputes (certainly a fair person). If you just want a gentlemen's bet that is fine as well. Do we w have a bet? What is at stake?
deadeye, no drama here, just the FACT that this stock IS a gamble and anyone that things otherwise is nuts. You may think this is an asset play, but the chance of finding the assets is the gamble.