Feeding village children in Mindanao Philippines and watching my boy and girl grow up.
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The question is where will it hit? Miami? Fort Lauderdale? Myrtle Beach? Or scoot south of Florida and head up the Gulf?
I'm with you on this TAKI. I have loaded up the boat, truck, both cars and even the bathtub with this stock between .021 and .29. I had some funds set aside to buy more if it came down to the .015-.018 area but committed those funds yesterday when I saw it pop above .031 (50 day moving average) as I felt the move was on. Still want to see .024 hold and see the 10 day ma move above the 20 day ma to feel a bit more comfortable.
The center of the projected path looks to me as if it is going to go directly over the moutains of Cuba which would knock some punch out of it.
Yes, today's action was disappointing but the 10 day moving average is just about to turn above the 20 day moving average at .24 So tomorrow's action will be interesting to see if this important support (.24) can hold. It appears that (1) there are some who knew about the contract and sold on the news (2) there was dillution (3) some who owned the stock thought the miniscule revenues from the contract was disappointing and sold or (4) short sellers decided to slam it.
Based on the fact that alot of the hurricane plays were in the red yesterday I tend to think it was not specifically geared at ECCI. I also added some at .29 yesterday on the pullback from .33 because I thought we were off to the races.
TAKI, here is another tracker for ya...
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200704_5day.html#a_topad
Well, the spread on the close was .020 bid to .024 offered so if somebody buys on the offer side the stock will be up 20%. Perhaps you mean you think the bid will go up 20% which would make it .024 bid and that would be close to a buy signal for me as the 10 day moving average is at .023 and the 20 day ma (middle band of the daily Bollinger band) is at .024. I am waiting for (1) the stock to close above the middle band and (2) the 10 day ma to move above the 20 day ma.
I am being honest. Yes, I want to get it at a cheaper price but I also think it could be in a trading range for a few months .03-.06....My strategy is to have orders in at that level and in the interim buy some more ECCI as I see a storm brewing off the coast of Africa.
TAKI, the one drawback I see, although I have been a buyer, is that the weekly RSI is not currently oversold (which is when I like to buy). It is currently at .47 (below 30 is very oversold). So if the past year is any indication, we could see this stock trading between .03 and .05 for four more months before another spike of activity occurs. I now have my core position with an average cost of around .055 and if it does maneuveur itself down to the .035 area I will accumulate more.
Peace,
T
If you're in EEGI I would take some chips off the table. It didn't hold support and has rallied to the 200 day moving average which has been resistance on previous rallies. There is a defined downtrend line and if you were lucky enough to make money on it go light a candle.
Neckline broken on the potential "head and shoulders" on the DJIA today. The 200 day moving average on the SP500 also broken today. 1340 is the uptrend line on the SP500 so I think we are headed to test that uptrend line which translates into a few hundred more points on the downside for the DJIA, as I read it.
11:08 AM EDT on August 09, 2007
NOAA released their August Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook Update today. The forecast calls for a likely range of 13-16 named storms, 7-9 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes. The forecast is almost unchanged from their May 22 forecast of 13-17 named storms, 7-10 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes (a normal season has 10-11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes). The forecast team cites the lack of El Nino, sea surface temperatures in the western tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea well above average (+0.56 C), and the elements shown in Figure 1 below, as justification for their continued forecast of much above normal hurricane activity this year. They also note:
Historically, similar conditions have typically produced 2-4 hurricane strikes in the continental United States and 2-3 hurricanes in the region around the Caribbean Sea. However, it is currently not possible to confidently predict at these extended ranges the number or intensity of landfalling hurricanes, or whether a given locality will be impacted by a hurricane this season.
What's your take on the dollar chart ($USD) it has support at 80 which has been in for quite some time. If it breaks I think it could cause havoc. Fed seems to have a dilema; either raise rates to support the dollar, thus causing more problems in the subprime market or let the dollar fend for itself. I would think the latter would be prudent but possibly inflationary. What's your take?
Tom
Auto V Resources was the name of the company.
TNC, good luck to you but given the history of Herbert with the other company that he drove out of business in a few months I just have a fear of this company. I am hanging on to the shares I have but I'd rather be in ECCI, or numerous others that have a chart that I can look at and get a handle for it's trading history.
I can't see how you can possibly think buy out on this stock at 1.25 when they have 1 billion shares a/s. It appears that Herbert is dilluting this stock into oblivion and God only knows what the float is now but I don't think a buy out is in the works any time soon.
I would like to thank you, as a shareholder, for supporting the stock, but I think I'd diversify a little bit. Look at the chart on V Auto and you can see that it dropped like a rock then went away after a few months. This is Herbert's history and as long as the SEC lets him get away with it while shareholders like us sit back and let it happen, the longer he is going to do it.
Peace,
Tom
.....Also, looking at a longer term picture on the S+P 500 it looks like an uptrend line around 1340 with support also at 1350 from a bottom in Spring......if we're going to test that area then it would translate into another few hundred points downside on the DJIA......
It looks to me that the DJIA is forming a possible head and shoulders formation. If I am right in this assumption then the right shoulder could form between 13150 and 13500 over the next few trading sessions. Good place to trade as long as you don't get caught being long if the neckline breaks.
Also the S+P 500 closed on the 200 day moving average after having broken it a few times. I'd watch the S+P 500 for a precursor to what may possibly happen with the DJIA.
Tom
I didn't say on the ask. I only said it could trade there. It was there 9 days ago and 21 days ago. That is the support area. It could trade there with the ask being .025 for all I know (MM's play all kinds of games).
The stock closed on the 20 day moving average at .024. There is a downtrend line at .026 which must be taken out before I feel comfortable that a move is beginning. Until this happens I still feel that the .015 area could be tested but any stock bought between here and .015 should seea triple-quadruple by year end imo.
T
I'd still recommend calling him instead.
What's Jim say about Herbert running V Auto out of business in a few months (April, 07) then doing the same thing with this company?
I don't remember getting an apology from him, but he did say that the information he used was from pinksheets.com. I also haven't heard from him in several weeks. I was hearing from Eric at www.trystockoptions.com for awhile. He also is affiliated with Russ but was more communicative then Russ in emails. He doesn't correspond any more either though now.
I would recommend that you contact the SEC (google SEC complaint form) and mention that the emails that Russ sent was touting CPLE/ETGP for being a company with a small market capitalization. I think the more people that complain the greater chance that they will follow up.
Nik40, I totally agree with you. In fact I was doing reseach on a novel I was writing some years ago and it had to do with the barrier that exists between AfroAmericans and caucasian Americans and the largest barrier is just what you speak of in your message. The population of our prisons is comprised mostly of AfroAmericans and Latinos who are there for attempting to make a living from illegal drugs (like Joe Kennedy did with illegal booze during prohibition) while those arrested for white collar crime often go free because the embarrassment to the instituion from the negative publicity of the crime is too much for them to pursue it.
I was personally familiar with such a case. In 1969 a woman was a manager for a stock brokerage firm (that will go unnamed) and during that period one could deposit cash into one's stock account (not the case anymore). So when someone brought in cash she would put it in her pocket and then journal the funds necessary funds from an active account (in those days the statements were so complicated and so many transactions took place for trading accounts that used type 3 (short account) to type 2 (margin account) to type 1 (cash account) that you had to be a rocket scientist to figure it out. Anyway she embezzled $450,000 over a one or two year period. The money was spent and not recovered. The crime was such an embarrassment to the firm that they did not publicly prosecute it. She was barred from working in the industry. She had to repay $50 a month (not even interest on the interest of the money) and served six months in jail for a lesser crime which was undisclosed.
So you can see the inequality in the justice system can create a tremendous amount of animosity toward the system.
My complaint with the SEC is not to go after Hebert even though he may be behind the misinformation. My complaint is against Russ Urban who hyped the stock by using inaccurate information. To say he is "sorry" is not good enough in this business. Had I done that as a foreign institutional broker I would have been made to pay the losses back to the client and I would have been fined heavily by the SEC and NASD. But it's our job to report this kind of fraudulant conduct to the SEC so that they are aware of it. If they decide to not prosecute then it is their bad not ours.
Peace,
T
August 3, 2007 Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Hurricane Activity. Dept of Atmosheric Science - CSU
August-Only Forecast. "we believe that August will have activity at slightly above-average levels".
September-Only forecast. "We are forecasting an active month for September".
October-November Forecast. "We are forecasting a very active October-November compared with climatology".
Probability for at least one Major (Cat 3-4-5) Hurricane Landfall--
3). Gulf Coast from Florida Panhandle westward to Brownville - 44% (average for last century is 30%).
Rik40, you are really asking the wrong person in asking me. I have half a million shares in this stock and it is in my best interest to tell everyone that this stock is the best thing since sliced pizza. But I had a near death experiece two years ago and my fear of going to hell has increased substantially since then so I am not going to allow my enlightened self-interest lead you down the garden path.
I will say that I got into this stock at .10 initially after the drop from 1.50 (a week later) and thought the product they had was good for the planet, good for the consumer and good for shareholders. I went blindly into the fog without a chart (which is my bible) since the company was new. I had read the pr's from speculatingstocks.com which painted a rosy picture of a stock worth twenty times it's 1.50 value (based on the 150,000 share float that they said it had). Unfortunately the stock had 20,000,000 shares float at that time (May) so ten cents was fairly valued.
What I did not know was that the president Hebert had recently driven another company out of business in a short period of time, I assume by diluting it into oblivion. I am fearful that he is doing the same thing with this company. The PR's they have are positive indeed and I have no clue whether they are for real or not. I would recommend you call Jim at IR Complete (PR) and talk to him. He knows me well as I called him quite often before I came to Hong Kong last month. Now I don't call.
Ask him about the V Auto that Hebert drove into the ground in April and get his reaction to that.
I am not suggesting that one person's mistake should haunt him forever. Cublie owned EAGB and drove it into the ground but that didn't stop me from buying ERFW at .08-.20 a share because the chart looked good (consolidation) and the stock was oversold. The stock went to 1.50 in three months before coming back to .78. I did very well with that in spite of the fact that EAGB bashers were on the ERFW boards saying what a fraud Cublie (the CEO) was and how he had driven EAGB out of business.
My point is that Hebert might have made a mistake with V Auto but the company did exactly the same thing that ETGP is doing. It came out at a high price. Quickly nose-dived below a penny and was out of business very quickly.
I believe the "concept" of this product is incredible. I do not know if Hebert is a crook and I do not know if the PR's are legitimate. I do know that the chart looked good when it was trading between .04 and .10 so I bought more at .04 (idiot that I can be) before it broke .04 and went to sub penny.
There seems to be continuous selling in the stock and no matter what kind of positive news can come out it can't get out of it's own way and I used to assume it was naked short sellers but now I believe it is the company dilluting the stock. I want like hell to be proven wrong on any of these points because I am out a hell of a lot of money.
T
Being paid to be unbiased is one thing but to put out absolutely false information about a company's low market capitalization and then say "oops, sorry" after the fact when the stock has dropped 99.9% is criminal. I will dog the SEC about speculatingstocks.com and Russ Urban for a long time to ensure that they are closed down or fined heavily for this act of criminal behavior. I really never thought this kind of behavior could go unpunished in this country.
NYPDBLUE, I can't ever argue with that possibility. I only try to look at probabilities and what has happened in the past. I would give the selloff continuing beyond October and going to sub penny a ten percent possibility here but I would give the possibility of the .015 area holding for the next 1-6 weeks and a rally ensuing to the .10 area (or beyond) a 90% possibility. Maybe it's 80-20 but the odds highly favor a rally from this level.
I look at it like Blackjack. If you count cards and you have a high low count (high possibility of a face card popping up) and the dealer has a face card showing while I am sitting with a sixteen do I hit? Well, if the low count tells me there's a lot of face cards about to come up, then I have to (1) assume the dealer's going to have to take a hit (2) assume that he is going to get hit with one of the many face cards that the high low count tells me is about to happen (3) assume that he is sitting with a twelve or higher and will bust and (4) assume that if I take a hit to my sixteen then I am going to bust.
Can all four possibilities be wrong. Absolutely, he can be sitting with an ace buried but the probabilities are great that he will bust and that is what keeps (good) card counters banned from casinos in Las Vegas.
Right now my card counting tells me that the dealer is showing a King, I am sitting with sixteen and the card count tells me that there's beau coup high cards about to pop up. So I'll sit back and wait to see what happens.
Peace,
T
The other thing I noticed is that each sell off over the past five years (excluding the 2006 selloff from January to December) have been 13 to 20 weeks long. We are in week 15 of this current selloff. Again, I am only looking at probabilities and patterns and this is just another one of those that supports the other data.
If I had been involved with ECCI last year, I would have been a buyer at .10 because that had been support for a couple of years and rallies had ensued from that area. Since that support level was broken last year, it has now resulted in that .10 area being resistance.
I think if the first part of August remains calm, hurricane wise, that this will provide the impotus to continue the selloff for another few weeks into the .015 area (perhaps even a shakeout slightly below that). But like a coiled spring the more shorts that jump on it at .02 and lower the more explosive the potential of the short covering rally if and when it occurs.
So as far as length of selloff we could go into late August early September and be in line with the January 04 and September 05 selloff (20 weeks in durantion) or we could start Monday morning and be in line with the January 03 (13 week selloff) or June 04 selloff (13 weeks).
Only time will tell.
Peace,
T
Thanks, but let the stock prove me right before accolades are showered ;)
I shared this with TAKI in PM and I will share it with the board.
The spikes in this stock over the past five years have taken place when the the weekly RSI was oversold, usually in the 33 to 35 area.
In August 2002 before the stock popped from .18 to .39 was the only time that the weekly RSI was below 30
In December, 2002 when the RSI was at 32 the stock was at .05 and by January, 2003 went to .60.
In August, 2003 the weekly RSI was only 50 (not oversold) but the stock went from .20 to 2.40 by January, 2004.
In September, 2004 the RSI got down to 35 with the stock at .28 within a month the stock hit 1.00.
In May, 2005 the RSI got back to 33 and the stock back to .12 it had a 3 day rally that took it to .38
In August 2005 the RSI was at 35 and it had an 8 day rally that took it to .75
In January, 2006 the RSI was only 45 with the stock at .08 but it ran to .28 in five days
In October, 2006 the RSI was 33 with the stock at .02 and it had a two day rally to .09
The last rally started in January, 2007 with the weekly RSI at 34 and the stock went from .015 to .085.
Well, the weekly RSI is currently at .348...the short interest is high and we are in peak hurricane season. I would put the probability of a sharp rally as extremely high. I know that there are those that believe you can't chart pinkies but I only try to look at a picture of probabilities. I was told the same thing about ERFW when it was at .08 a few months ago and the stock ran to 1.50 (was out way too early on that one).
I will admit that there are stocks that the RSI gets below 30 and stays there for a long time. I am only suggesting that the "pattern" to this stock is not such. Can this time "be different"...absolutely. I only look at probabilities.
The chart suggests that we are testing a possible double bottom at .015 and with the oversold nature of the stock at this point I would give the chances of a double bottom being very high.
Peace,
T
Well, nobody has more $ invested in this then I do. Unfortunately I was drawn to this hound at .10 after the initial drop from 1.50. I added at .04 but after reading what Hebert did to the last company in such a very short period of time, I must say I am dubious and have no fingernails left (still two toe nails left on my left foot....arthritis prevents me from getting to them).
Not to beat a dead horse, but Russ Urban touted this stock on the open May 13th at 1.50 and said it was going to the moon because of low float and low market capitalization. I tried to contact Jim but they were moving offices that week (my curse) so it was my bad to take Russ at his word and not do my own dd by verifying that the market cap was as low as Russ Urban said. I did get through to Jim a week later but the stock was already in the crapper.
Now we have 1 billion A/S and it just stinks to high heaven of another company that Hebert is going to take into the toilet. I, like you, was drawn to the potential of the product but the amount of shares being dumped on this market is unbelievable. There has to be a new kind of chart made to decipher the OBV and Accumulation/Distribution for this sucka because the lower lows are below the basement.
There may be a trade in it from .001 to .005 somewhere down the road, I am just hoping the SEC reads my complaint and investigates whether it was CPLE/ETGP behind the manipulation of this stock or Russ Urban and www.speculatingstocks.com
but one thing is for sure is that it was a superhype job on the opening of trading of this stock and there are some suckers out there who own it at $1.50 from May 13th. As badly as I feel about owning it at .10 and .04 I know there are those who feel worse.
Did Jim have any words of encouragemtn regarding Hebert and the demise of the other company?
Going sub penny? Aren't we already sub penny at .0065?
The news from the University of Central Florida was unbelievably good. It is difficult to understand why this stock doesn't react positively to the upside on such phenomenal reports about their product. I guess there is just massive shorting into any buying that arises from positive news.
Has anyone besides myself actually purchased this stock yet?
I have noticed that this stock makes it's "run" after it breaks above the middle band of the daily Bollinger band (20 day moving average). That currently is .026. If the stock can pop above that level then I think we are off to the races. If not then we could very well test the all time lows in the .01 area but I think that is a good place to be averaging down, which is what I plan on doing. My average cost is now .025 and I will start doubling up at .018, .016, .014 and .012. I think by year end we'll test the .09 area again...but whether we break through that resistance only God knows.
This stock seems to have a nice pop every year...sometimes when you least expect it. I saw a move in May 05 from .12 to .38 for no apparent reason. With the exception of a move from Jan-May 07 on the stock from .01 to .08 the rest of the movest each year has come during hurricane season (June-November).
The dilution is a problem, for sure, but if there are units in production that should create some buying support for the stock. Also I see the CEO put his own cash up for an average price on the stock about where your price is.
Naples is a cool area. I used to go to Vanderbuilt Beach all the time years back.
Peace,
T
Hey TAKI, hello fellow Floridian. I am from Jupiter, although I am currently in Hong Kong watching the hurricane screen. I just started investing in ECCI and notice you have been in this stock for quite a while. So I assume you have put some coins away from this stock.
I have accumulated a pretty sizable position and it looks to me like on a cyclacle basis it is in the ball park of being at a bottom. I am about 80% invested at this point and just was curious whether you are "all in" at this juncture or just waiting for a dip below .02 to accumulate more. You can tell me it's none of my business if you want, I'll understand.
Peace,
T
Daiello, do you prefer OBV or Accumulation/Distribution chart?
Accumulation/Distribution is supposed to be more accurate than Granville's OBV system but I do notice at Stockcharts that the two charts can go in opposite directions of each other. It's difficult to analyze when that happens. I prefer to have both lines going up but most times you can't find that happening with a chart making new lows.
Sounds like a country and western song...
"But when the money starts flowing in....we'll be fine...."
The next time you email or speak to Jim you might want to ask about the quick demise/short life of V Auto and Edward Hebert's association with that company.
The halt, according to Jim at IR, was due to the name/symbol change from CPLE to ETGP. According to Jim it was erroneously viewed as a merger as opposed to a name/symbol change, so it went a couple of weeks trading only under "new" stock. It was never stopped from trading, but only those who bought the new shares could trade it.
My only hope is that the SEC comes down hard on Russ Urban et. al. for putting out so many emails with erroneous information about the market capitalization being under $1 million when in fact it was $140 million (with outstanding shares being 85 million and the opening price at $1.50).
His "excuse" at the time was that www.pinksheets.com showed the float as 150k.
I think that if he or anyone else is getting compensated with $$ or free trading stock, that they have a responsibility to know the facts and not just rely on www.pinksheets.com for their information.
I was a foreign institutional broker for many years and I know that if I had done what Russ Urban did, I would have had my @$$ sued off and been drummed out of the business.
So I only hope that the SEC does it's job and closes www.speculatingstocks.com down or fines them very very very heavily.