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BOCX Featured in July issue of Aurelius newsletter:
http://www.runonideas.com/newsletter/07200501/index.asp
Tooth, I am also in it for the long haul but don't count out the short-term just yet. Big things coming.
Yes, I do. I've been down this road many times. Half full's expression "calm before the storm" might be cliche, but it's actually a scientifically proven effect (mean reversion of volatility) in capital markets that I and I'm sure you have experienced many times. Quiet periods like this are more often than not by design.
I know it sounds like hocus pocus, but for the record I got this same feeling literally a week or two before the Abbott deal, and posted it on the RB board (gooodman reposted that post of mine many times ...that was before he turned on me of course).
Big things to come. Mark my words.
you got that right half-full!
All I can say is that I am very optimistic about the near-term. Long-term is a given, but I strongly believe things will pick up soon.
We ain't seen nothing yet. eom.
interesting info Gaboy...thanks
By the way I got filled on 10k of my 25k just under $1 today. My old bones are telling me just a little while longer until lift-off. It's times like these when I love to buy...when the company has been quiet, the share price is dribbling off on low volume, and other shareholders are getting restless.
Headache, it's definitely night & day dealing with one of the largest companies in the world as opposed to BOCX. They are totally bulletproof.
yes, grandma, you form an association to vote & discuss matters with management from a unified stance. it's not important enough to discuss at length right now, because we have no clout until we get up to 5 - 10% ownership of the company. ie; the board must grow.
lol longterm
which pharma Headache? and just how long ago?
Abbott is impossible. I've tried, but to no avail. They have been down this road a thousand times, unlike BOCX or Goshen. Try calling them -- it's like having the Pentagon on the other end of the phone.
HEADACHE, there is still technology risk, but it's just not nearly as big as it was before the Abbott deal. We have no idea what Abbott found during the blind sample verification process. It could have been mediocre for all we know, but if you closely study the website of Abbott Diagnostics you will realize that they BY NO MEANS are cutting deals every day with small biotechs. They seem to be quite careful and picky in their deal-making, which is a good sign for us.
HEADACHE...
When you say "early detection," I take it to mean using RECAF as an indicator for the later development of cancer. THAT is the only "early detection" that would require a lengthy trial like you're describing. BioCurex discusses that type of "early detection" indication in their 10-K...they mention that some of the samples identified as cancer with histo have been the earliest stage of cancer or something to that effect.
When I say "general screening," I'm referring to the exact same manner that PSA/etc is used. With PSA & the other "general screening" markers... you first take the blood test. If it's positive, you do a body scan to determine where exactly the tumor is, how big it is, has it spread, etc. Once the scan is complete, you do a biopsy to get final confirmation that it's cancerous and other info about the tumor. Then, you make a decision on treatment (ie; chemo, surgery, radiation, etc).
So you see, there is no possible way that the "general screening" indication I described above would require a lengthy trial, and that is the blockbuster indication. It's a simple positive/negative on a group of *known* cancer samples. In fact, all the major cancer markers have been filed with the FDA under 510k's (no trial at all), & Dave Gentry says that the company expects to go the 510k route with the FDA but I think there is a good chance they'll end up needing a PMA (which requires a formal trial, albeit a very painless one compared to the nda process for drugs).
If Abbott goes the 510k route with the FDA, I can see why BOCX told longterm 1 year until commercialization after the Abbott deal was announced. There is very little process involved (for instance...BOCX got 510k approval for Histo-RECAF -- they just submitted the internal study data they've been showing us and the FDA accepted it).
If Abbott goes the 510k route, we would literally get approval within weeks to months rather than 6 - 12 months if we went the PMA route (6 - 12 months from the time Abbott integrates RECAF onto ARCHITECT and begins the regulatory process).
Welcome longterm...this place is like paradise compared to RB. Unbelievable that we didn't think of this earlier. Like months ago!
Gaboy that's an incredible piece of information. Thanks! Even though I think it will take 6 - 12 months before we get conclusive data that nobody can argue with, the stock could also go parabolic if we signed on some other big names...the market will start to wonder why the hell the biggest names in diagnostics are flocking to a pink sheets company with a $30 mil market cap. The Abbott deal didn't do it, but more deals could.
headache...as far as time frame until we get some sort of independant verification, I don't think we'll see conclusive data out of Abbott or whoever for 6 - 12 months. Everyone I'm talking to is telling me that the process for testing a serum assay for general screening indication is ULTRA fast.
We're talking about simply issuing a positive or negative reading for each sample out of a large group of samples, and determining the sensitivity/specificity.
The specifics of trial design -- like how many arms and what arms -- will be up to Abbott, & will largely depend on how they want to position RECAF in the market. In light of what I said in my prior post about positioning RECAF as a "piggyback" assay at first, I wouldn't be surprised if they structured a dual-arm trial of PSA test vs. RECAF plus PSA. That data would give their marketing/distribution machine a ton of leverage compared to just a PSA vs. RECAF test.
Headache...
I agree with you that getting the "early detection" indication will take a very long-term trial, but that is just one indication. Another indication that will take a long-term trial is post-chemo/surgery follow-up. That is also a great indication for which a multi-year trial is needed. We'd have to do regular RECAF tests over a long period on patients who've just had a tumor removed, so we could track the correlation of RECAF levels to recurrence of the cancer.
But headache, you have to remember that those are important indications but by no means are they BOCX's "bread and butter" indication. The blockbuster indication for any cancer diagnostic, including RECAF, is general screening. That's why PSA, CEA, & PapSmears are the best sellers by far -- because they are given to patients who fall into certain broad demographics over & over & over again (ie; all males over 40 get PSA tests every time they go to the doctor, etc).
With that in mind, my view is that Abbott will not develop RECAF to replace PSA, CEA, etc, but rather to greatly enhance the accuracy of those tests. Trying to replace the current tests would be corporate suicide for Abbott Diagnostics as they would cannabilize some of their best-selling products. So, it makes sense to me that they would position RECAF to "piggyback" off current tests. I'm pretty sure management has suggested that before in filings or p.r's.
jazz_one, that's a nice size position...welcome. at this point i wouldn't be surprised if this board has a combined 1 mil shares of BOCX, which is a few % of the company. over this year hopefully we'll get up to a few million shares as more shareholders find this board...that will put us at 10% owners or so. then we form a shareholder's association and build a close relationship with management, so that when important issues come along we have a voice.
and ps, love your alias -- i play the drums, primarily jazz.
cannonball...
as for your question re 3 - 5 year rev projection, any attempt to answer that in a stock like this is pure speculation but i'll give you some scenarios. before that, though, you might want to consider that the big question in this stock right now is not how big the market is.
why?
because everybody knows that the market for a universal cancer marker with stunningly high accuracy is garagantuan. i'm talking off the charts big...it's totally unprecedented, and would be considered one of the top oncology achievements EVER if not the #1 achievement. if the market BELIEVED that any company, from biocurex to pfizer, ever truly had such a cancer marker...billions would be tacked on to their market cap.
so the question is not how big the market is for this product, because that is not a question at all -- it's a known fact. the question is:
why doesn't the market believe that BOCX has such a product, despite what BOCX has said/published, what others have said/published, the abbott deal, the enthusiastic backing by the fathers of the cancer marker industry, etc???
THAT is the question you should be wondering my friend.
My feeling is that the market wants to hear from Abbott themselves that this technology makes the cut (ie they must publish data). The other route would have been a large, independant trial sponsored by BOCX, but they've never had anywhere near the money or expertise to do that, and their plan has always been to hand off those costs to a licensee.
Anyways...sorry to stray from your question. Regarding revenues, you have to consider scenarios. In all of these scenarios I'm assuming BOCX gets 10% royalty on all sales across all indications.
Scenario 1: RECAF proves to be a highly accurate universal cancer marker. This scenario is not a homerun...it's a grand slam in the bottom of the 9th to win the world series. We're looking at billions of revenue to the licensees, which translates into hundreds of millions for BOCX. Using a very low fixed op ex of $5 mil (the whole point of the royalty model), a 30 p/e, 40 mil shares outstanding, & a 30% tax rate, that would put our share price in the stratosphere at $50 - $150 /share. (if you don't think medical stocks can breakout like that, you haven't been around the block. we're not talking about brick & mortar biz here...see us surgical $7 to 200 in a year or two way back in the day, elan $1 to $30 in one year on the back of 1 multiple sclerosis drug, osip from $5 to $80 in two years on the back of one cancer drug that doesn't even do a whole lot, etc, etc, just to name a few I've seen that didn't happen during stock market bubbles.)
Scenario 2: RECAF flops in Abbott's further testing, and is shown to be an unreliable cancer marker. BOCX goes bankrupt and you lose ALL your money, unless you're lucky enough to liquidate at $0.03/share or something ;)
Scenario 3: Somewhere in between 1 & 2...RECAF establishes itself as a useful cancer marker but not with the same promise of the early testing. Licensee revs could be anywhere from $50 mil to $500 mil across all indications, putting our shareprice anywhere in between a few dollars to the $25 area.
***************
As you can see, all that matters is whether or not the market will start to believe Scenario 1. If Abbott announced 75%+ sensitivity/specificity for prostate cancer in a trial of 500 blood samples that they sponsored at a reputable institution or two, you probably wouldn't even be able to look at BOCX's share price that day without getting dizzy!!
The missing link here is pure psychology. The market has not crossed the boundary of believing that RECAF is what BOCX says it is. We need Abbott, or another reputable institution, to publish similar numbers and then the ballgame is over.
6k traded is not exactly what we want to see just as we're getting hopeful that the stock is bottoming. Ack.
new SCBLOG on BOCX:
6/13/2005
BioCurex rising?
Filed under: General— Editor @ 7:44 am
Pink Sheet listings aren’t conducive to rationale trade. I have had lots of emails assailing Biocurex for not getting off the Pinks and on to a legit exchange. In discussions, that is very much on the companies mind and it is working to that end. Nobody wants to stay on the Pinks.
As we postulated, once the stock broke the .618 support area convincingly, a whole new wave of selling came into the stock. However, we noticed that once the stock broke $1.00, it was heavily supported. This wash and rinse move it made by breaking down hard and snapping back on good volume suggests it will take quite a bit of negative momentum to go lower from here. I like the risk reward ratio at current levels. It will likely remain volatile for all the reasons previously noted.
I’ll continue to follow BOCX, as the potential, IMHO, remains amazing in the long term.
Trade Safely.
Glad to see everybody's here! According to mybiz, investorshub scans IP addresses for multiple aliases. So Steve's practice of just registering new e-mail address with raging bull to create an alias will not work here! Don't ya just love it? Jeez why the heck didn't we think of this before?!?
Gaboy (responses from your RB post)...
"Bocxman mentioned once kits available, Doctors being able to get test results immediately, can any one elaborate on this part of the technology. Also wondering if anyone here has a basic understanding of Abbott's architect system. Is this something that is set up in a doctor's office, if so how much is the initial investment for this technology? "
- as far the kits...you might be confusing some things. BOCX has two main diagnostics products, serum-RECAF (the blood test) and histo-RECAF (the tissue staining test). the serum test is the blockbuster product, while the histo test is a niche market and proof of concept type thing.
originally BOCX had the retarded plan of selling the histo kits while they were doing R&D on the serum assay, but then they realized they had no money to spend on marketing/distribution not to mention the fact that nobody had heard of RECAF then as now. they scrapped that plan, so the histo-RECAF kits really have little importance.
the serum-RECAF will not be distributed as a "kit." what happens is that abbott develops a RECAF assay for architect, ortho develops a RECAF assay for their VITROS system, roche develops a RECAF assay for elecsys/cobas whatever it is, etc, etc. these companies have the gillette business model, they don't make money on selling the platforms, they make money on selling a constant, monthly supply of serum assays to the labs.
by the way...by "labs" I mean hospital labs, private labs, and even labs within larger physician practices. THEY are the buyers of the assays, not the doctors.
nevermind novicetrader.
novicetrader you are rajacat on the RB board right? (i think your email is something like novicetrader right?)
To kick things off...Some of you might have missed my post on the RB board about my conversation with Dr. Schwartzentruber at Goshen. I posted it while a lot of the usual crap was going on, so it might have gotten lost in the mud. If you recall, he is the Goshen doc who is mentioned on the BOCX-Goshen P.R.
Anyways, first of all I asked him how the relationship formed. He said he contacted BOCX, rather than vice versa, and said that it was on the basis of data they had published but declined to give any more specifics.
Then I asked him what Goshen's focus would be. He said unequivocally imaging. He said that since Abbott is involved with the diagnostics, they feel that they could be most helpful/pioneering with regard to the imaging aspect. He also said they have a great deal of expertise with regard to tumor imaging. (There goes the theory that Abbott was behind Goshen, possibly to use them as a clinical trial site)
I asked him if they were planning on organizing clinical trials and publishing the results, and he said "that's the whole point of what we do."
I asked him if the data was too good to be true, and he said it's definitely remarkable data that has had all sorts of independant verification at this point but could not be considered "conclusive" yet (as BOCX themselves have said). He said "that's what we're trying to find out."
I asked him about timelines and he laughed and said "that's a good question," which says to me that they are a research institution at the end of the day -- not a corporation like Abbott -- and probably don't have a streamlined process for doing this sort of thing as abbott seems to have.
Hope that's helpful, guys.
Welcome everybody....Say hello if you hear me.
Wow...A flurry buying at the open from the mailer. 8k shares! Wow!
Anyone know this Eiten guy's track record aside from LLLI? Was that a one hit wonder or is he a consistently successful stock promoter?
lance, that email campaign was by no means sponsored by BOCX, and they have suffered because of it.
JP4: I saw LLI's chart and it's quite impressive, so I'll just pinch my nose and ignore how obscenely pathetic the document is. If you consider that "slick"...all I have to say is wow.
I just saw the report...I'm long now, but is that document really supposed to move this stock??? Please tell me the LLLI was as pathetic as that, because the only reason I'm in this stock is I saw the LLLI chart. I just can't believe there are people out there that could read that document and buy this stock, but I'll take you guys' word for it that they are out there. You seem to have been through this bizarre drill before.
A lot of supply already...300k traded and hasn't budged.
Lol I guess the Chinese do have a sense of humor after all.
SA: I can't PM because I'm not a premium subscriber, does that mean I cannot join the chat? TIA.
So how do I get into this chat? I went to stockhideouts and went into the chat but didn't see a room for XPNG.
Allright I'm in...took a little position to test this whole "promo play" deal. Seems ludicrous but I'm a fogie.
Notice the trades at a few 100th's of a penny ahead of $1.16, the promo price. I have to admit that's a great idea...front running the liquidity from the promoters at $1.16. And that's really what you guys are doing, so hats off. Just keep a tight an ultra-tight stop, and put profits into BOCX when you're done. LMAO.