BioCurex, Inc.(fka BOCX)

[bocxman]

cannonball...
as for your question re 3 - 5 year rev projection, any attempt to answer that in a stock like this is pure speculation but i'll give you some scenarios. before that, though, you might want to consider that the big question in this stock right now is not how big the market is.

why?

because everybody knows that the market for a universal cancer marker with stunningly high accuracy is garagantuan. i'm talking off the charts big...it's totally unprecedented, and would be considered one of the top oncology achievements EVER if not the #1 achievement. if the market BELIEVED that any company, from biocurex to pfizer, ever truly had such a cancer marker...billions would be tacked on to their market cap.

so the question is not how big the market is for this product, because that is not a question at all -- it's a known fact. the question is:
why doesn't the market believe that BOCX has such a product, despite what BOCX has said/published, what others have said/published, the abbott deal, the enthusiastic backing by the fathers of the cancer marker industry, etc???

THAT is the question you should be wondering my friend.

My feeling is that the market wants to hear from Abbott themselves that this technology makes the cut (ie they must publish data). The other route would have been a large, independant trial sponsored by BOCX, but they've never had anywhere near the money or expertise to do that, and their plan has always been to hand off those costs to a licensee.

Anyways...sorry to stray from your question. Regarding revenues, you have to consider scenarios. In all of these scenarios I'm assuming BOCX gets 10% royalty on all sales across all indications.

Scenario 1: RECAF proves to be a highly accurate universal cancer marker. This scenario is not a homerun...it's a grand slam in the bottom of the 9th to win the world series. We're looking at billions of revenue to the licensees, which translates into hundreds of millions for BOCX. Using a very low fixed op ex of $5 mil (the whole point of the royalty model), a 30 p/e, 40 mil shares outstanding, & a 30% tax rate, that would put our share price in the stratosphere at $50 - $150 /share. (if you don't think medical stocks can breakout like that, you haven't been around the block. we're not talking about brick & mortar biz here...see us surgical $7 to 200 in a year or two way back in the day, elan $1 to $30 in one year on the back of 1 multiple sclerosis drug, osip from $5 to $80 in two years on the back of one cancer drug that doesn't even do a whole lot, etc, etc, just to name a few I've seen that didn't happen during stock market bubbles.)

Scenario 2: RECAF flops in Abbott's further testing, and is shown to be an unreliable cancer marker. BOCX goes bankrupt and you lose ALL your money, unless you're lucky enough to liquidate at $0.03/share or something ;)

Scenario 3: Somewhere in between 1 & 2...RECAF establishes itself as a useful cancer marker but not with the same promise of the early testing. Licensee revs could be anywhere from $50 mil to $500 mil across all indications, putting our shareprice anywhere in between a few dollars to the $25 area.

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As you can see, all that matters is whether or not the market will start to believe Scenario 1. If Abbott announced 75%+ sensitivity/specificity for prostate cancer in a trial of 500 blood samples that they sponsored at a reputable institution or two, you probably wouldn't even be able to look at BOCX's share price that day without getting dizzy!!

The missing link here is pure psychology. The market has not crossed the boundary of believing that RECAF is what BOCX says it is. We need Abbott, or another reputable institution, to publish similar numbers and then the ballgame is over.