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CMM.V News
http://biz.yahoo.com/cnw/070821/century_min_decision.html?.v=1
A long time ago I loaded up the truck at $.52/shr, when it spiked over a buck I sold half of my shares, so I am holding free shares(not counting tax). I am just about to pull the trigger and load up again. This looks like a gift????
Kipp
TXCO - $10/shr BMO Capital Markets $24/shr target.
I have had TXCO for a while and it hasn't done much, now closer to low than $14 high. I came across a BMO C. M. research report that talks about huge potential in late 07 through 09. I am going to copy the text and paste it here so be warned it will be a little hard to read. Comments welcome!
Link yo TXCO website: http://www.txco.com/
( FC ) 03:55pm EDT 3-Aug-07 BMO Capital Markets-US (Deacon, Raymond 303-436-1113) TXC TXCO --Raising Target Price to $24; Maintaining 2007 Volume Target - Part 1/2
Details & Analysis
Our thesis on TXCO remains that the proven reserves and the Glen Rose Porosity
inventory is worth somewhere between $9 and $10 a share and that investors gain
exposure to the San Miguel tarsands play, the Pearsall Shale play, and the
horizontal Glenrose shoal play on the Output properties essentially for free.
The following table shows our estimate for the value of the company's 300
locations in the Glenrose Porosity play, typical IRRs, and the NPV per well
assuming a $55/bbl oil price.
Exhibit 1: Glenrose Porosity Economics & Inventory
*** Graphic object removed from ascii version of document. ***
Source: BMO Capital Markets Estimates and Company Reports.
Additional conference call and recent Boston/Chicago roadshow highlights:
" Schlumberger has been hired to do a reservoir study on the company's Glen
Rose Porosity play to determine oil in place, and recoverable reserves as well
as to suggest a secondary recovery program for the future. This may result in
play being classified as one reservoir and allow the company to book PUDs
(positive F&D impact). The company is working diligently on ways to lower the
reservoir pressure to allow the oil to escape from the porosity matrix.
" Deep Bossier. Peers are drilling wells in excess of 65 mmcfpd on the same
"shelf" of the Bossier as TXCO in the vicinity of the Fort Trinidad field. We
look for a well to be drilled in 2008.
" Tar Sands. We expected news on pricing of tar sands product from Corpus
Refinery at this point and it looks like that news is further away than we had
thought. By year end we hope to see commercial production from a pilot that may
consist of as many as 32 wells.
" Pearsall. Because of the completion technique equipment that will be
required it is likely two months until results from fracture stimulation are
known. Anadarko recently permitted its first horizontal well to test the
potential of the Eagleford and Pearsall shales in the Maverick basin, having
drilled five vertical wells. The lateral in the well extended 1,560' versus
2,500-4,000' planned lateral since Encana, the operator, had difficulties
handling pressures encountered. TXCO intends to drill its next well
underbalanced to avoid formation damage in, it hopes, to improve deliverability
from the well.
" 3-D defined Glenrose Shoals on Fort Trinidad field have significant
potential. The first of seven planned wells targeting the Glen Rose B is slated
for September. The Glen Rose C shoal had been the primary target given that it
had oil while the Glen Rose B was never targeted for development.
" Capex. We believe that in order to fund expected drilling in the San
Miguel tar sands play the cap-ex will go up.
Company Description
TXCO Resources is a small-cap ($365 million) independent oil and gas E&P
company. The company's core area is the Maverick Basin (85% average working
interest) in Southwest Texas, with more than 600,000 acres in the basin. TXCO
also has interests in the Marfa Basin in West Texas. The company reported year-
end 2006 reserves of 41.4 Bcfe, 48% of which are proved developed. On a pro
forma basis for the merger, the company has 81.4 bcfe, and production of
roughly 21.4 mmcfepd and net acreage of more than 723,000 acres. With the
acquisition now closed, the company has in excess of $90 million available for
development capital expenditures on its credit lines. The company also owns a
91-mile pipeline system in the Maverick basin with current capacity of 35
mmcfpd (33% utilized) with expansion potential to 100 mmcfpd.
My bearish list.
These are things that I feel will continue to be negative on the market.
There are $50 billion in mortgage resets coming every month for the next few months.
Home prices are falling and will not recover anytime soon (years). Housing activity is a huge part of the economy and is toast. There is no money available for people who have problems with their loans. I could go on and on about housing but the bottom line is housing related stocks are toxic.
The Yen is strengthening and will cause more unwinding of the carry trade. A lot of hyper-leveraged derivatives are going to be unwound, this will cause pressure on ALL asset classes including commodities. Selling causes more selling and so on.
Inflation is headed our way. The dollar is going down and the price of everything that matters is going up. The fact that food and energy are not counted by the FED is pure folly. Most governments are pumping double digit money growth to keep systems liquid, I think last week alone was $400 billion of injections with more on the way.
There will no doubt be many more surprise headlines, "XYZ hedgefund goes under". "Fortune 500 investment bank discloses billions in loses" etc.
Buckle up!
Kipp
yielddude - gold stocks
I like AEM for large cap.
I like ngg.v and cmm.v, ngg is now in the first days of production, cmm is a profitable producer. If you look at the charts these two are at the bottom, not the top!
I also like rby.v as a canadian explorer. Again, closer to the bottom with low volume on the chart.
Bobwins and cl001 have good picks here too if you want to look at their posts over the past week.
Do you get the "Basic Points" news letter from me? If not, PM me your email address and I will get you on the list.
Good Luck,
Kipp
bbots - I think gold is going to be something that people turn to as a safe haven. We are now hearing that some "money market" accounts aren't made up of money at all. I have been buying gold stocks lately. I think gold is getting sold off to meet margin calls and will start to move higher as the dollar moves lower. I think Ben and the Fed will flood the market with more hundreds of billions of $s AND cut rates. We will see inflation spike, the dollar tank, and gold will go up. I can't see any easy way out of this mess as selling begets more selling and the good stuff MUST be sold with the bad. Sorry to sound so gloom and doom but I can't immagine we are anywhere near out of the woods. If the market bounces here and then gets smacked down again....look out!
My 2 cents is that I am better safe than trying to catch the falling knife.
I asked myself if last week seemed like the end of the unwinding of the largest debt bubble in history?.........NOT A CHANCE!
It would be nice if I am wrong....we shall see.
Kipp
This "Metalhead" sees more danger ahead.
I have been on the longest vacation I have ever taken, 2 and a half weeks in Western Ontaro, just a few miles south of the Red Lake Gold Camps. My son has been working at a resort on Eagle Lake all summer, we leave in the morning.
I have been reading the VMC boards every few days and watching the market. Most of you know I have been cautious for quite some time. I did do some buying of Canadian gold jrs during the Thursday panic. I still see problems for the base metal stocks. I feel that there will be a global slowdown and more stock market correction in the next few months. Basemetal prices will suffer from the speculative money being withdrawn and the potential demand slowdown.
If you guys read "Basic Points", I agree with Coxe that gold will still have it's day in the sun. I do not see the end of the world coming, rather a cleansing of the drunkin liquidity (debt) orgy. I think gold has been sold by people needing cash to cover margin etc. Once the panic selling cools off gold should bounce. Gold will also rise if and when the dollar breaks 80.
I can't believe that we may get another "once in a lifetime" chance to buy some of our favorite near term producers and jrs 1,2, 300% off their highs!
Hunker down guys, still some bumps ahead!
Good luck!
Kipp
Is TRGL worth $240mil market cap?
TRGL - sold off on 2.1 million shares in early May. 12 million shares in the float. Insiders hold 24% and institutions hold 51% so 75% or 9 million shares held together. Yahoo shows the other 3 million shares are held short. Only 70,000 shares traded so far today.
When will shorts decide to cover? We know earnings report will be bad, but we also know gas wells are being connected to the pipeline and revs are coming on.
I am thinking to add a few shares today, anyone else adding, or is it a falling knife???
Kipp
The Markets
I have been less active here for a while. I have been worried about the market and very conservative after being fully invested for 4 years. I made a lot of money and I want to keep some of it!
The Yen carry trade is a major source of heartburn for me. These hedge funds have borrowed billions of yen and leveraged them into trillions of dollars. This "funny" money is invested in everything all around the world. I think the markets will have a much bigger correction if the Yen strengthens and the carry trades are unwound.
The subprime mess will cause risk to get priced back into the bond market. Junk will no longer sell at a discount.
The housing market is toast, end of story, for a long time.
Inflation is here now and all of this core non core talk is garbage.
I have some intrest in gold and oil sands. I have a lot more intrest in going fishing and letting things settle down for a few months.
Good Luck to all of you!
Kipp
Gold Stocks
A lot of you know I put a lot of "Stock" in what Donald Coxe says. The last couple of weeks he has been big on gold as a possible winner based on inflation, falling dollar, etc. There is a nice pullback going on right now and I got a bunch of CMM.V, NGG.V, tempted on SGR.V.
Do any of you have any gold stocks that are producing or near term producing? Anyone care to comment on the above stocks I am in?
Thanks!
Kipp
Lots of Agricultural stocks are listed at this link:
http://search.isp.netscape.com/nsisp/boomframe.jsp?query=100+stocks+to+combat+rising+food+prices&...
Kipp
AMEX is currently unavailable for order execution
Currently, AMEX has halted trading in equities and ETFs as of 12:20 PM ET. During this time, orders routed to AMEX will not be filled. AMEX is working to resolve this issue as quickly as possible. We will be sending an update when we have more information.
It is advisable to route AMEX listed symbols to other venues.
This could explain volume problems?
OT - Anyone need a new car???
Here is a smoking deal from a despirate automaker! Drive the new vehicle one time and take it over to the used lot!
http://www.denverpost.com/search/ci_6181259
I drive a 2005 Jeep Liberty Diesel CRD. I really like it and get 25-26mpg. I see the Mercedes 3 litre diesel is now in the Grand Cherokee. I like diesel power and increased mileage. The turbo really pulls the Colorado mountain roads.
Kipp
Bear Stearns Bond Fund Implosion????
Anyone here have a feel for what the impact of selling bonds in a panic will do to the market. Someone said the accounting rules will force all bonds to be re-priced based on the sales today. I have no experience with bonds. Please read this story and feel free to enlighten me!
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=asVbORr6uhsM&refer=news
Thanks!
Kipp
Cornerstone Energy Report
http://www.cornerstoneenergy.com/marketnews/mi061507.pdf
AEZ Summary Page
*They currently have $30 million cash.
http://aez.investorpass.com/profiles/investor/CSummary.asp?f=1&BzID=992&Nav=0&LangID=1&a...
I submit AMEX: AEZ to the board.
I have been out of town and just getting caught up here. I found a local company that has a lot of land and potential for 1000 plus O&G wells. Here is a link to a June presentation:
http://aez.investorpass.com/profiles/investor/fullpage.asp?f=1&BzID=992&to=cp&Nav=0&...
AEZ is a Denver based independent oil and natural gas exploration and production company focused on building shareholder value from projects and properties located in the western United States. The majority of current and planned activity is centered in the Rocky Mountain Region. The company commenced oil and gas operations in January of 2003 with the purchase of oil and gas leasehold interests in several properties from Tower Colombia Corporation and North Finn, LLC, two private E&P companies active in the Western U.S. In April of 2005, Tower was merged into American and American's ownership in certain projects increased. North Finn continues to be a strategic partner in many of American's projects. Since the merger with Tower, American has substantially increased its project inventory and acreage positions.
American currently owns interests in approximately 420,000 gross acres located primarily within 3 core project areas: Douglas, Krejci and Goliath. Drilling is underway in all three project areas.
Management believes that each of these three projects hold the potential for a large multi-year inventory of drilling locations. With initial and continued drilling success, American’s current acreage positions hold the potential to drill up to 100 gross wells at Goliath, 375 gross wells at Fetter and over 700 gross wells at Krejci. The Douglas project area holds numerous opportunities in addition to those at Fetter.
Comments?
Len - Shorting lesson = CROX
I think CROX is a good example of how you can get killed shorting a stock. The last time I checked CROX had a 25% short interest. ANyone that is in that trade is getting killed!
As to the housing stocks......that looks to me like a lesson in "catching a falling knife".
Kipp
NGG.V Blamo!
Ouch, delays in production killing the run. $.40/shr support?
Kipp
swb173 - Coxe Agri stocks
Steve,
Coxe stays away from specific stock recomendations. There is a new board that is Moderated by Bobwins and assistants: cl001, MikeS97707. It is the "Food and Agricultre board:
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=9423
Agriculture is a "table pounder" and is only in the early stages, just like the mining stocks, nobody will belive how high prices can go!
Check out the board and we will get some good ideas for everyone over there!
Kipp
Yara IR Presentations:
You really need to look at these presentations to understand what it will take to feed the world. We are one bad crop away from completely depleting world grain inventories. The demand for meat around the world is accelerating grain consumption.
http://www.yara.com/en/investor_relations/presentations/conferences/index.html
Kipp
Link to CBOT futures page
Good spot to watch prices:
http://www.cbot.com/cbot/pub/page/0,3181,949,00.html
Kipp
Yara YAR.OL
It has been a while since I updated Yara. The main points are the efforts to build nitrogen plants in parts of the world that have really cheap and ubundant natural gas. They convert the gas to urea, a 52% nitrogen that is 100% safe and easy to transport in bulk cargo ships. They are also shooting for 10% global fertilizer market share in one business cycle. This is putting some preassure on the stock as they are paying premiums to aquire target companies.
The web site is:
http://www.yara.com
Over time this company will be a power house in the fertilizer business.
Kipp
Don Coxe - Agri stocks only in 2nd-3rd Inning
Guys,
Listen to Coxe on Canadian Dollar and Agricultural stocks.
http://events.startcast.com/events/199/B0003/#
I just got back from dropping my 15 year old son off in Western Ontario for his summer job at a lakeside resort. I remember when $1USD was $1.60CAD now it is $1.06CAD. The stores will only give you par now.
As to agricutural stocks, I agree with everything Coxe says in his weekly talk. I still have a lot of work to do on these stocks. This is a seasonally weak period for these companies, they will now trade with commodity prices.
Got to run to work!
Kipp
Don Coxe - Agri stocks only in 2nd-3rd Inning
Guys,
Listen to Coxe on Canadian Dollar and Agricultural stocks. http://events.startcast.com/events/199/B0003/#
I just got back from dropping my 15 year old son off in Western Ontario for his summer job at a lakeside resort. I remember when $1USD was $1.60CAD now it is $1.06CAD. The stores will only give you par now.
As to agricutural stocks, I agree with everything Coxe says in his weekly talk. I still have a lot of work to do on these stocks. This is a seasonally weak period for these companies, they will now trade with commodity prices.
Got to run to work!
Kipp
Natural Gas Report
http://www.cornerstoneenergy.com/marketnews/mi060107.pdf
Kipp
Bobwins, Any other tar sands in addition to STP.V and PBG.TO that you like?
Thanks,
Kipp
Bobwins - PFM.V - Now that was funny! I got a bunch at $1.88 avrg. I think the tar sands will be back in the spot light soon. Don Coxe has a good point that the big oil cos are having a hard time increasing reserves and buying their stock back is not the answer. It will only take a big deal in the oil sands to get things rolling like in the jr. miners. Thanks for pointing out the opportunity today!
Kipp
Bobwins - Where are you getting live quotes on Canadian stocks from?
Kipp
GAZPROM and EU Fears!
http://www.neurope.eu/view_news.php?id=74320
More on EU Nat Gas and Russia
http://www.speroforum.com/site/article.asp?id=9633
Russia Using Nat Gas to Control EU
This is looking like a real problem for the EU energy security. Bodes well for TRGL.
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/news/article-23398185-details/How%20the%20Russians%20plan%20to%20invad...
Kipp
Canadian Market Holiday Link
http://www.tsx.com/en/market_activity/market_hours.html
Natural Gas Market Update
I usually post on VMC but will be posting this report here every Friday.
http://www.cornerstoneenergy.com/marketnews/mu052507.pdf
We have 20% more gas in storage than the 5 year average. More rigs drilling than last year. Hot summer coming. Hurricanes????
Kipp
Does TRGL trade any warrants??
Donshub _ The TRUTH about housing#'s
I have spent a ton of time on this because it is so important.
Here is a link to the U.S. Census : http://www.census.gov/const/www/newressalesindex.html
Understand this about the new home sales report:
"How does the Census Bureau handle cancelled sales contracts in the published estimates of New Home Sales?
The Census Bureau does not make adjustments to the new home sales figures to account for cancellations of sales contracts. The Survey of Construction (SOC) is the instrument used to collect all data on housing starts, completions, and sales. This survey usually begins by sampling a building permit authorization, which is then tracked to find out when the housing unit starts, completes, and sells. When the owner or builder of a housing unit authorized by a permit is interviewed, one of the questions asked is whether the house is being built for sale. If it is, we then ask if the house has been sold (contract signed or earnest money exchanged). If the respondent reports that the unit has been sold, the survey does not follow up in subsequent months to find out if it is still sold or if the sale was cancelled. The house is removed from the "for sale" inventory and counted as sold for that month. If the house it is not yet started or under construction, it will be followed up until completion and then it will be dropped from the survey. Since we discontinue asking about the sale of the house after we collect a sale date, we never know if the sales contract is cancelled or if the house is ever resold. Therefore, the eventual purchase by a subsequent buyer is not counted in the survey; the same housing unit cannot be sold twice. As a result of our methodology, if conditions are worsening in the marketplace and cancellations are high, sales would be temporarily overestimated. When conditions improve and these cancelled sales materialize as actual sales, our sales would then be underestimated since we did not allow the cases with cancelled sales to re-enter the survey. In the long run, cancellations do not cause the survey to overestimate or underestimate sales."
YES MSGI you need to read them all!!!!
PUMPING Bob's new JR. ENERGY Board
Guys,
I am getting the feeling that energy is gaining momentum after a lack luster period. Bob has a new board devoted to energy, the link: http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=9329
Over there you will find a natural gas stock that does not qualify (yet) for this board (it will soon). It is a table pounder for a double by fall even in the toughest of markets.
Also a Canadian Jr. oil sands co. that is catching fire!
Good Luck!
Kipp
Mike TRGL is a "BOB's BUY AND MOLD" Stock!
I'm in this one for the long pull!
THANKS for posting all of your DD!
Kipp
TRGL Pipeline, What is capacity?
Does anyone know what the pipeline can handle? That may be the limiting factor and why the 50mmcfd vs. 70?????
Still, this looks like a table pounder for a run back to previous high around $30pps. Higher natural gas prices may also be in the cards. It is my kind of stock!
Does anyone see anything wrong with it after time to do more DD?
Kipp
THANKS for starting this board! I can now hang out here and at the jr. miners board!
TRGL looks really good to me. Finally a chart that is closer to the bottom than the top!
Kipp