Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
ElliottWave Oil E-Wave Count.
Frank Barbera wrote an article "Early Stage Top Out Parade" for FinancialSense.com that shows ElliottWaveInternational's (Prechter) oil chart E-wave count. EWI's view is oil is consolidating in a triangle with one final, sharp rally in the near future. This would fit another theme of "all the same market" where all assets are rising and falling in sync.
Oil made a new recovery high today. My and EWI's count favor a slight pullback over the next 2 weeks.
WTIC still topping
The recent rally negates any wave count Wave C Down has started. With all the sloppy trading, I wouldn't be surprised to see and ending diagonal. Market consolidations and turns are surrounded by turbulence; rallies by very long, narrow trend channels. July through present has been very choppy to the upside, so I think it is more of a turn than a consolidation. Consolidations tend to go a little deeper against the trend to corrects.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$WTIC&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p19649378131
WMT e-Waves
From the February '09 lows to present is WAVE B triangle in Wave E. I give this last wave of WMT's bear market rally 3 to 6 weeks to complete with a Target (ha-ha) of $51.50. The end of Wave E may coincide with Black Friday. Maybe even earlier if stores slash prices a few weekends in advance.
WAVE C down should take the same form as WAVE A down, a dounble zigzag from September '08 to February '09
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=WMT&p=D&yr=1&mn=7&dy=0&id=p58483248133
Intraday Triangle SPX and INDU
This means only one more advance until the rally out of Friday's low is finished.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=spx&time=&freq=
The larger picture shows a double zigzag out of the March lows. Wave c of C is looks like an ending diagonal. The transports have already topped out.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$spx&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p75635173805
Dow Industrial E-wave Recount
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p75635173805
Today's sharp selloff negates being in wave 5 of c. The most likely count is wave 5 of c ran from Friday to Tuesday and truncated. At this point the wave count is a bunch of 1-2, 1-2 of smaller degrees, but larger moves.
When the Industrials are compared to the Transports, the transports have a very clear double zigzag, textbook triangle in May and June, crisp top, and motive downward movement. The Transport also have a clear divergence with the RSI. Downside volume in the Transports has grown noticeably since its top. The technicals for the Transports are flash SELL. The Industrials can't be far behind.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TRAN&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&id=p55422058241
Dow Industrial Ewaves
The rally off the March '09 lows is corrective zigzag. wave 5 of c started today, unless wave 4 of c is a triangle instead of a zigzag.
The other indicators are flashing a warning of an end to the rally. Stochastics have been in and out of overbought the past 3 months. The Relative Strength Indicator (RSI)is flat to declining despite the rising market, as is the MACD. 2 divergences!!! Volume has been declining for most of the 6 month rally. The volume for wave-a zig is nearly 2x of wave-c zag.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p75635173805
Oil E-wave update.
I have two equal e-wave counts for oil.
Preferred: Bear market rally over (Wave B, double zigzag)
Wave a - Feb '09 low to Jun '09 highs
Wave b - Jun '09 highs to July '09 low
wave c - July '09 low to Sept '09 high, truncated
Wave C Dowm started.
Alternate: Bear market rally continues (Wave B, double zigzag) $75 is retested.
Wave a - Feb '09 low to Jun '09 highs
Wave b - Jun '09 highs to July '09 low
Wave c - wave b may be over, wave c to begin any moment and last 4 to 6 weeks.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$WTIC&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p77311258342
ABX Index Tops! and drops?
The intermediate term chart shows a triangle rally in the ABX.HE.AAA.06-1 index. Wave e is very close to topping, if it already hasn't. I'm waiting for the lower triangle trend line support to be broken as confirmation of the reversal. The equity markets can't be too close behind.
http://www.markit.com/en/products/data/indices/structured-finance-indices/abx/abx-prices.page?
ABX Index ABX.HE.AAA.06-1 WOW!!!
This Subprime mortgage index blasted a point yesterday and 4 points today!!! Adam Smith was wrong about the "invisible hand". Everyone can see it is the government. Technically this pop fits nicely with the last push of a trend. In this case it looks like the ABX index is in wave e of a triangle or wave 5 of and ending diagonal. Either way a top is in the works over the next week or two, followed by a strong decline the rest of the year.
http://www.markit.com/en/products/data/indices/structured-finance-indices/abx/abx-prices.page?
Oil Ewaves
Oil has either topped, or still has about a month to go.
From the July '09 lows, the advance has been very choppy, so this is most likely an ending diagonal.
Bullish count:
Wave 1 = July low to $68.50.
Wave 2 = $68.50 down to $62.50 in late July
Wave 3 = $62.50 in late July to $75 in late Aug
Wave 4 = $75 in late Aug down to $68.20 today's low. This wave counld be finished since it overlapped Wave 1 AND is not motive.
Wave 5 = starts any day. Upside target $75 to $78
Bearish count:
Wave 1 = July low to $68.50.
Wave 2 = $68.50 down to $62.50 in late July
Wave 3 = $62.50 in late July to $74 in mid Aug
Wave 4 = $74 in mid Aug down to $67.50 a few days later.
Wave 5 = $67.50 in mid Aug to $75 late Aug.
New bear market
Wave 1
Wave 2
Wave 3 or a smaller wave 1 beginning a cascade.
The bull case remains in effect, and is strengthened if the price advances past $73.00.
The bear case becomes the preferred count if the price drops below $62.50.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$wtic&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p75635173805
Baltic Dry Index Chart
There is a clear zigzag bounce out of the 90% crash in the BDI. This may be the only corrective move, or it may be wave a of a larger Wave B.
The "good news" about the economic recovery doesn't seem to be driving the BDI higher.
Oil Making Ending Diagonal
Top is almost in. With the "all the same markets" concept in play, a clear wave count in a couple markets can help forecast what the less clear markets will do.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$wtic&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p75635173805
Trend1 - Another 2 Channels
I get the same target box using a few more trendlines.
Extend the lower channel line from 8/10 and 8/11. Now draw a lower trend channel from 8/14 and 8/17. These two trend channels meet in your target box.
Structurally this would be waves 1 and 3 touching the lower trend channel of a larger degree wave.
Transports Choppy Advance
There might be an ending diagonal in play. Nonetheless, choppiness at the end of a strong move signals a trend reversal is about to happen.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=djta&time=&freq=
Been on the sidelines lately.
I saw an opportunity today I felt like taking. DIA Aug 89 puts. I counted five waves up, and the spike was broadening. In fact a broadening pattern has developed the last 3 months.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$indu&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p75635173805
The best opportunity I saw was the transports. The correction of the March - May bounce was a triangle. Post triangle behavior is generally a sharp thrust above the top of the triangle, which has happened. If there is a tracking stock for the transports, I'd like to play its options because the e-waves for the INDU, SPX, and NDX are more difficult to count.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$tran&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p75635173805
2-Week INDU E-wave count
I've got a sneaking suspicion the markets are near the end of a 2 week selloff. Sure, today was a big down move; however, structurally the choppy rally last wednesday and Thursday look like a triangle. Triangles occur in the next to last position of the larger trend. As wave b's or d's in corrective mode, or as wave 4 in larger motive waves. Stochastics are entering the oversold area. Today's volume was less than on Friday, despite the larger point drop.
The end of this wave c of 4 of Larger C is just too close to call tomorrows opening. Just look for a strong rally by the end of the day.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=indu&time=&freq=
May ABX Rally Retraced More Than 50%
ABX.HE.AAA.06-1
http://www.markit.com/en/products/data/indices/structured-finance-indices/abx/abx-prices.page?
The stock markets won't be far behind.
ABX- Bonds AWAAAAAY
The ABX.HE.AAA.06-1 index looks to have broken the lower channel of its multimonth rally. I chose this index because, at the time of the mortgage meltdown, it was the blue chip of the mortgage mortgage. It places a limit on the best condition the mortgage market can be, sort of like chosing the DOW Industrials for the world of stocks.
http://www.markit.com/en/products/data/indices/structured-finance-indices/abx/abx-prices.page?
Crude Comments
The correction for crude oil is nearly done. The e-waves show something of a triangle in wave e or a complex correction in wave Z. The stochastics have been overbought for a couple weeks now. The price has had a nice double in 6 months. That's a nice profit to take.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$WTIC&p=D&yr=2&mn=5&dy=0&id=p48481006347
The timing of this top should coincide with a stock market top. This fits a deflationary environment where all asset classes are sold to pay debt. Oh yeah, big dollar rally coming.
ABX.HE.AAA.06-1 Bond Index Heading Lower
The stock markets will follow.
http://www.markit.com/en/products/data/indices/structured-finance-indices/abx/abx-prices.page?
Me Too, Chuck. eom
BLISS - SPX Maybe A Little More Rally.
It sure looks like the rising wedge on your chart is an ending diagonal. There are other signals of an imminent top such as a diverging stochastic cmopared to price, relatively low volume on a relatively strong up day, and a the strong resistance of the 200 DMA.
The E-wave indicate today was wave 3 of a larger wave 5 or e. There could be a little consolidation at the opening before retesting today's highs.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$spx&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p75635173805
Mortgage Index Leads New Bear Leg
The chart looks like a FLAT with wave c truncating
ABX.HE.AAA.06-1
http://www.markit.com/en/products/data/indices/structured-finance-indices/abx/abx-prices.page?
Sold SSO Calls to Close Position
Around noon I sold my SSO $24 strike calls. for a 25% profit. Near the close I bought SSO $24 strike puts. I think trianlge wave e is going to take the market lower in the next day or two.
I-SPY e-waves
the spx today looks like a textbook flat. The last few minutes is just wave c finishing. The difficult call to make is whether the opening completed a zigzag or another set of wave 1-2 combination is building. Either way there should be one more advance for at least 10 points.
Short Term Bottom.
Today looked like the end of a motive wave. That does not mean the next bear wave is beginning. I think it's part of a wave 4 zigzag or flat, depending on the market being looked at. wave 5 is alive.
I bought calls for SSO. This is my first trade in over 6 months. I'm needed some time to sort out the waves to the point I felt confident enough to risk capital. I'm trying to be more patient with my trades this year.
PT's Chart
I'm seeing a couple key patterns on the close-up chart you posted.
1.) The e-wave of last week's decline was a triangle. The volume during this decline was decreasing. These imply the decline was the last short term pullback of the larger degree.
2.) The rally out of last Friday's low looks like a zigzag, a corrective pattern. Wave 5 should be impulsive, so a corrective advance implies the wave 4 correction may continue some more, OR an wave 5 ending diagonal may be at hand. Target of 940+ still very much possible.
On this larger chart:
1.) I see the stochastic making a lower low while the price moved up, a divergence warming of a top.
2.) Let's not ignore the 800 lb gorilla in the room. The 200 DMA is resistance at 940, a line I really think will be broken to trigger computer trading to buy agressively before individuals dump shares.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$spx&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p75635173805
Co-workers want to quit - Explained.
Socionomics postulates people's mood drives everything, including the direction in the stock market. Mood leads the market. So with the mood progressing strongly to the downside despite the market rally, it won't be long before the market tops and catches up (down in this case) with the mood.
SPX E-Waves and more
In my last post I was calling for an e-wave count of 4 of 5 of zigzag from March '09 lows. The alternate count is wave 5 of c of a much larger flat starting in November '08.
The zigzag looked good until today. Tuesday the SPX bounced at 895 and shot higher after breaching the lower trend channel. I was anticipating the rally to challenge the 840 area of the 200 dma. Today was pretty bad technically and makes any continuation of wave c very disproportional. Let's look for better counts.
The bullish count is wave 5 of c of FLAT is about to start and then challenge the 200 dma.
The momma bear case is this zigzag is part of a larger consolidating pattern (double zigzag, or flat). Wave 2 from the 2007 highs.
The papa bear case wave 3 of 3 of C FLAT from year 2000 is starting. Expect chart gaps. "It's Crash Time"
The fundamentals have caught up with the stock markets. Social mood is still pretty bad. In my office people are so fed up with the poor project planning that many are considering leaving their well paying jobs without even having another job lined up. some people already have walked out without any warning. I don't think these feelings of wanting to quit from stress is unique to where I work. This strong urge to want to quit tells me the markets are ready for a jaw-dropping crash.
PriceTeam, Hold Yer Horses!!!
I agree the SPX will make a new rally high; however, the e-wave count indicates there is still more wave 4 of wave c of Zigzag to complete. I think there will be a false break of the lower red trend channel on your chart to the 900 level.
THEN we see the final wave 5 rally to challenge the 940 area.
INDU / SPX Ewaves
Rally off March '09 has a motive wave until late March. a FLAT consolidation occurs. Now the markets are in another motive wave that has another Rally high - pullback - Final Rally High at a minimum. Give it a few more days to complete. After that the count has too many alternatives to discuss.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p75911044444
SKF
I made a boatload trading that ETF last year. I love it right now. It's near an all-time low. The MACD is turning UP and the price drop is slowing, a great divergence to play!!! The bollinger bands are closing, volatility is imminent. The price fell below the 200 day moving average too far, too fast. Mean revision play.
I've gotta play this ETF again.
TJWNY: Nope.
The volume patterns show declining volume on rallies, which is bearish.
DoubleTake - Breaking News E-Waves
Even though I use E-waves extensively, and it helped me recover all my DotCom losses, I'm open to other techniques. My plan is to do some very intensive spectral analysis, much as Hurst did. This week I started reading about DeMark technical analysis. In less than two hours I read about the Darvas box technique, and plan to backtest it using a simple spreadsheet.
Some people do better with certain tools of the trade than others, while others create their own. Play to strengths, but search, study and test new ideas before incorporating them into your investment strategy. To be a successful technical trader, you must first be able to the apply the scientific method of hypothesis testing.
US Treasury Bond Yield Rally Underway
The long bond yield has definitely broken to upside resistance. The 10 year Treasury yield has just broken its upside resistance with a strong move. These market forces are stronger than the FED since yields on both are high than the they were the day in March '09 the FED announced its plan to buy 10 year Treasuries to support the market.
Who is selling? Take Your Pick!!!
1.) Severely underfunded pensions
2.) China
3.) Banks in need of capital.
Yields should rise quickly. The consolidation was wave 2 FLAT from early February '09 to March '09 lows. Flats are generally at one end or the other of the longest move in a motive wave. Since the end of the wave 2 flat, several degrees of wave 1-2 combinations appear to have unfolded. This puts the wave count into the 3 of 3 of 3... the part of the pattern where the greatest changes occur.
10 Year Yield
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$Tnx&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p21668228095
30 Year Yield
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TYX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p21668228095
OIL E-Wave
My last count was a zigzag. I incorrectly interpreted its wave b as a triangle. My new wave count for oil since December '08 lows is WxYxZ (in second x or Z) or a triangle (wave d or e). Target is around $56.
This is synchronizing nicely with the equity markets, long term bonds, and the VIX. It's looking like a major turning point of global proportion is in the works within the nexty 2 weeks.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$WTIC&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&id=p01693311670
Ewave INDU, SPX, NDX
Since the March '09 lows my favored count for the INDU and SPX is an ending diagonal. Early last week it looked like the lower edge of the converging trend lines was broken. The rest of the week retraced most of the loss. These indexes are in Ending Diagonal wave 5.
The NDX from the March '09 lows looks like an ending diagonal too at least the part about all the "advancing" subwaves being zigzags. Waves 1 and 5 do not overlap.
How is this conflict resolved? Play it safe. Ending diagonal wave 5 in the NDX advanced above wave 3, but that's not the case in INDU and SPX where truncation maybe taking place. The futures this evening are down 2% in the SPX. OUCH!!! Fundamentals and wave counts are in synch during wave 3's. The bank stress test results, the GM plant shutdowns, and the massive insider selling would be synchronous enough for me.
MetalFillBoy - DeMark
Thanks for the offer, but I downloaded a free copy about DeMark technical analysis. I wanted some feedback about the strengths and weaknesses of the technique.
Other TA- DeMark Indicators
Has anyone investigated DeMark's technical analysis strategy?
If so, what are the pro's and con's?
Ewave Lock on Lockheed!!!
Motive Wave Decline AUG '08 to Nov '08
FLAT A: Nov '08 lo to Dec '08 hi
FLAT B: Jan '09 hi to March '09 lo
FLAT C: March '09 to 2009-04-16, a completed ending diagonal
LMT should now sell off very hard in a 2-3 month motive wave.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=LMT&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p22072309817
Just a little cynicism here. Will the media and Lockheed blame short sellers for the LMT share price collapse, even though the Obama administration publicly proposed mil/DoD cuts?