Short Term Trading Member Forum

[techcharter]

Oil Ewaves

Oil has either topped, or still has about a month to go.

From the July '09 lows, the advance has been very choppy, so this is most likely an ending diagonal.

Bullish count:
Wave 1 = July low to $68.50.
Wave 2 = $68.50 down to $62.50 in late July
Wave 3 = $62.50 in late July to $75 in late Aug
Wave 4 = $75 in late Aug down to $68.20 today's low. This wave counld be finished since it overlapped Wave 1 AND is not motive.
Wave 5 = starts any day. Upside target $75 to $78

Bearish count:
Wave 1 = July low to $68.50.
Wave 2 = $68.50 down to $62.50 in late July
Wave 3 = $62.50 in late July to $74 in mid Aug
Wave 4 = $74 in mid Aug down to $67.50 a few days later.
Wave 5 = $67.50 in mid Aug to $75 late Aug.

New bear market
Wave 1
Wave 2
Wave 3 or a smaller wave 1 beginning a cascade.

The bull case remains in effect, and is strengthened if the price advances past $73.00.
The bear case becomes the preferred count if the price drops below $62.50.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$wtic&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p75635173805