Short Term Trading Member Forum

[techcharter]

SPX E-Waves and more

In my last post I was calling for an e-wave count of 4 of 5 of zigzag from March '09 lows. The alternate count is wave 5 of c of a much larger flat starting in November '08.

The zigzag looked good until today. Tuesday the SPX bounced at 895 and shot higher after breaching the lower trend channel. I was anticipating the rally to challenge the 840 area of the 200 dma. Today was pretty bad technically and makes any continuation of wave c very disproportional. Let's look for better counts.

The bullish count is wave 5 of c of FLAT is about to start and then challenge the 200 dma.
The momma bear case is this zigzag is part of a larger consolidating pattern (double zigzag, or flat). Wave 2 from the 2007 highs.
The papa bear case wave 3 of 3 of C FLAT from year 2000 is starting. Expect chart gaps. "It's Crash Time"

The fundamentals have caught up with the stock markets. Social mood is still pretty bad. In my office people are so fed up with the poor project planning that many are considering leaving their well paying jobs without even having another job lined up. some people already have walked out without any warning. I don't think these feelings of wanting to quit from stress is unique to where I work. This strong urge to want to quit tells me the markets are ready for a jaw-dropping crash.