Short Term Trading Member Forum

[techcharter]

US Treasury Bond Yield Rally Underway

The long bond yield has definitely broken to upside resistance. The 10 year Treasury yield has just broken its upside resistance with a strong move. These market forces are stronger than the FED since yields on both are high than the they were the day in March '09 the FED announced its plan to buy 10 year Treasuries to support the market.

Who is selling? Take Your Pick!!!
1.) Severely underfunded pensions
2.) China
3.) Banks in need of capital.

Yields should rise quickly. The consolidation was wave 2 FLAT from early February '09 to March '09 lows. Flats are generally at one end or the other of the longest move in a motive wave. Since the end of the wave 2 flat, several degrees of wave 1-2 combinations appear to have unfolded. This puts the wave count into the 3 of 3 of 3... the part of the pattern where the greatest changes occur.

10 Year Yield

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$Tnx&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p21668228095

30 Year Yield

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TYX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p21668228095