Background is in Investor Relations and portfolio management focused on energy stocks. Always looking for opportunities to learn & share more.
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So this is your first foray into O & G? That's exciting to me for there is so much about energy trading if only for the incredible possibilities that might turn up at any time.
Let's tackle something you bring up as it relates directly to not only this particular company but actually any company drilling for hydrocarbons. The subject is the three P's:
In oilfield parlance we assign prospectivity values to three stages of presumed value. Thus we recognize each by awarding a name or title representing what one could logically expect to uncover, assuming drilling in that particular area or zone.
When assigning such names or identifiers, we make use of seismic for starters. Previous drilling in that specific area or adjacent areas can be extremely illuminating. Core samples tell us a great deal about soil conditions as well as the presence of material suggestive of the presence of hydrocarbons, be they in place now or formerly so as in the case of oil migration. Much of this will become clearer as we move forward, below.
The Three P's:
POSSIBLE
This is how we may view an area thought to hold oil, gas or both, based on a number of possibilities but lacking concrete evidence. This is where the dreamers among us find ourselves trapped in often pie-eyed wishful thinking. I, personally, refuse to even consider buying shares in a company whose leased lands have been assigned the single P value. I'm too old for that level of risk as such hydrocarbon systems will often take many years before there can be a meaningful start towards development. Add in the three to five years typical to bring found oil to market and even then---where's the infrastructure to support it?---and you get the idea. Worst of all is the lack of proof supporting even the mere possibility of oil in place.
PROBABLE
Here is where things can get dicey. Say you've got a lease with a few working wells. You pick up an adjoining lease, assuming this lease will compare favorably with the other one. But it may not be the case. A hydrocarbon basin may hold millions of barrels of oil but knowing where to sink the drill bit is crucial. There are up-dip situations indicating there was oil at some point but if it's "migrated" because there were no "seals" containing dome-like structures to prevent the outflow, then you're out of luck and also oil.
Seismic will usually help define the level of probability of there being discoverable oil in place (OIP) but without 3-D seismic and extensive work performed by very highly trained petroleum engineers, all bets are off. And even if not, there's the question of prospectivity as in:
Assuming there's oil, will it be enough to assure us of the commercial viability BEFORE drilling? After all, we're talking about million of dollars here, whether onshore or offshore. Still, many companies will take the gamble in the belief they are more talented, luckier or patient.
PROVED
Proved reserves are held to be the most desirable yet I know from firsthand experience that even these reserves can fall through the cracks. Seismic, both 2-D and 3-D, can illustrate where oil should be. 2-D refers to two dimensions as in length and width. 3-D provides that most desirable third dimension---depth.
Again, only the drill bit will truly prove the presence of what we'reseeking. Core samples will bring up mud from well beneath the earth's surface and this will feel oily, smell oily and probably taste about as bad as last week's fish fry. But even the sharpest geophysicists will happen upon subtle differences contrasting from their prior experiences. As a result, they may fail to accurately predict the future. I've never met a dumb geophysicist, rest assured. But life is full of anomalies. When we're focused on substance usable only after lifting it out of the ground, we're dealing with nature, birthing place of the very seeds of nature that spawned us and all that comes of us.
The study of oil in place can be incredibly tantalizing.
For those who care to understand more about this, let me refer you to Robert Bearnth. Google should have some good stuff. Also, Neil Moore. /six years ago, Bob was honored as the world's leading geophysicist, credited with no less than six major discoveries. Neil, his partner and long time friend, is the electrical engineer who first figured out how to conduct seismic research from the back end of a boat, trolling through waters with "geophones" attached to an array of wire lines. He used as many as twelve of these instruments, recording responses electronically, arising from exploding tiny charges well beneath the sea. By interpreting differences in pitch and times of decay, it was possible to determine the nature of and viscosity of material thought to be oil.
My really great fortune was to have had these two giants as my personal friends and teachers. They'd been reading my energy-related articles in blogs for years and hired me to run their company's investor relations department. I've never known better, more upstanding, outstanding and honest men than these two, now departed.
This is a lot to digest, I know. And it will likely lead to many questions. That's fine with me so long as it helps someone here to possibly find an interesting and profitable place on which to hang a hat. I know I have been extremely fortunate.
Final point: Where does this attach meaningfully to Caza Oil?
March 3rd shows units closed at $11.37,barely above the current price point with fifteen minutes before the close. With ex-D tomorrow, the difference isn't meaningful.
More interesting at first glance:
There's an indisputable decline in distributions over the past year. Momentum speaks loudly to me and before investing, I'd need to know why this is a longer term decay.
And in June and July, well-respected Zacks Advisory Service has had a #5 ranking assigned to it. That is their version of a strong sell.
I don't rely on any service for guidance but when I smell smoke, I've got to investigate it. I'm smelling it.
There was a huge drop in price immediately following disclosure of earnings in early March. I'm not understanding your reference to the stock's being on fire.
Please understand I'm not opposing this company or your decision. I'm trying to piece things together. I'm sitting on too much cash at present and am open to new ideas for investment.
Can you draw a picture connecting some of the dots YOU see? And what has you thinking this might be a wiser bet than CVRR?
Also, take a look at instances immediately following ex-div. days. Do you see a recognizable pattern developing in terms of unit pricing and volumetrics?
You've got your assignment!
Here's something that is going to rock the boat and likely slow the legalization process. When will people learn that you don't get rich by killing the golden goose. If anything, you may wind up ducking after finding you've been self-goosed.
This is so incredibly stupid that the taxman failed to sense the logical response to multiple layers of taxation.
http://mmjbusinessdaily.com/colorado-marijuana-tax-structure-questioned/
I think you did great, not only for getting a fine price plus you're in line to receive your distribution next week---but also because you chose to move cautiously. This is much like a poker game in the cowboy movies where players are stone-faced, nobody willing to show emotion for fear of blowing his opportunities.
I'm expecting that some catalyst will suddenly appear and this thing is going to sink back to the $22 range, possibly even lower over the next couple of months.
This morning I checked to see what Cramer's "The Street" has to say about CVRR. Interestingly, they've got a "hold" on it. And that designation is current, not years or even months old.
That said, there's an incredibly enormous flaw in the analysis provided as there isn't any mention of the fire or related injuries. And there isn't even an acknowledgment of the need for repairs or the six year shutdown ordinarily calling for a shutdown of facilities independent of the fire-mishap.
In short---it's a farce, imo. Rubber stamps won't get your letter delivered. I hope not many are buying into The Street's failure to keep current. I feel sorry for those who lack the skills or networking opportunities to arrive at meaningful determinations.
That said, an interesting thought just came to mind:
What might represent a good enough price for adding to existing positions or launching a new position? For me, it will come down to a price point that demonstrates some stability. This means the daily price will have to stay in a somewhat predictable range for ten days or more. Sudden drops without explanation are not acceptable for they could be expressive of internal informational leaks. Thus, if units should drop to $22 without gapping down more than maybe 35 cents, I'd probably pick up a few hundred units. If units dropped to $21.75 or so, I'd be adding but once again, carefully. More about this later as folks here request.
Your apology will not be accepted here! You're doing great, really.
There's a point or two I would make regarding debt and/or debt financing/refinancing:
The company expects shortly to be self-sustaining. What this comes down to is that through internal operations we may/might expect that soon, capital expenditures will be financed internally(read that: cash flow positive sufficient to carry the company towards profitability without further borrowing, dilution or debt management issues).
When I look over a company's quarterly or annual numbers, the first thing I need to find out is the directional bias evident in its production revelations. There is ALWAYS a bias in evidence, hidden or deliberately exposed. I need to see yoy (year over year) improvement and nothing less. Comparing Q1 of 2013 with Q1 of 2014 is part of it. Seeing reduced debt obligations is surely part of it. But for me, it's all about a diminishing stream of fresh debt being contrasted by increasing cash flow which, once free of historical encumbrances, should become profitable. Strictly on a net-back basis, we're talking about positive cash flow.
Next, I look at bottom line expansion. How much new acreage has been added? What is the nature of associated prospectivity? What is the status of completed seismic? 2-D? 3-D? Infrastructure available to manage new production hoped to come on line?
There's much more but I needn't clog the airways here as I know others have much to say. One thing is for sure: The results so far are truly outstanding, imo. I doubt it will be long before our shares receive the respect due.
We're listening, so speak up, folks!
I'm confused:
THC is the bad guy and hemp needs not exhibit its presence.
But is hemp really legal as your article states? And how can it qualify as such? And if legal, then why must it be designated as part of a discovery investigation being conducted by a university within such-and-such a State? And last but hardly least---hemp seed is a major stumbling block at the moment. We may expect changes forthcoming but that doesn't guarantee same.
Continuity, Zev and others here---can you elucidate for me?
Thanks for diving into this.
You got it! Mission is just barely west of McAllen. Wonderful area. I'll PM you my email address, should you be in the area.
Thank you for telling us how you respond. I hope others chime in as well. This is how we can build important perspectives with respect to this particular company and its stock.
What, in particular, impresses you? There are clues on the surface and beneath, as well. Sharing some of these personalized reactions can be beneficial to us all.
Looking forward to hearing more from you!
"Retired" may explain it to a point but I manage stock portfolios for the wife and myself while coaching a number of friends, too. This calls for about six hours daily of rather intense analysis and reflection. Nightly I tally so I can gauge my effectiveness and Fridays' closing numbers point to efficacies or failures.
My background is rather varied. In recent years but now concluded, I headed up the investor relations departments for a pair of energy companies. Duties centered upon "presenting" to investment bankers and interested investment groups. I also coached executives in ways critical to more effective public speaking. Image is, indeed, important for these people when interacting with peer professionals. Stock performance evaluations, analysis and writing press releases pretty much sum up my former primary responsibilities.
There is much I do not know about the market. I'm a student in all things. As I view it, that is what sets the stage for personal growth and, consequently, our opportunity to work meaningfully with others coming from common interest areas.
CVRR's very recent behavior is disturbing to me. I know there are things I'm not understanding and I'm OK with that. But when I work hard to shed light on a situation such as this and come up empty, it irritates me. While I now own no units of CVRR myself, I am still a CVRR owner in a sense for I know I'll soon return to the ownership role. I sold to make the most of opportunities at hand. This has worked out well, financially. At the same time, it bugs me that I'm unable to make sense out of the trading action.
Throwing money at a stock is not a smart way to develop an estate. I think people are doing just that, thinking that the soon-to-be-delivered 96 cent payout guarantees future wealth to come their way. As I advise friends, "There's no future in history."
So now I'm hanging out the red cautionary flag because I do not trust this week's trading action. Another of my self-made lines is appropriate here:
"When in doubt, DON'T!!!"
That one saved my butt more times than one might imagine, in and out of market situations.
Enough about me---this is the CVRR board.....our CVRR board. Let's enjoy one another's company and personal views, concerns, fears, and excitements and see if we can't build a comprehensive foundation on which to further develop a piece of enviable enterprise. We can do this!
Our quarterly numbers are out. There is much to take in so, rather than invite disarray, I'm posting numbers from the production side. As others here contribute, the overall picture will change, providing a broader view from which we can glean value. I'm looking forward to an enriching discussion.
******************************************************
Press Release: Caza Oil & Gas Announces Second Quarter Results and Provides Operational Update
Caza Oil & Gas Announces Second Quarter Results and Provides Operational Update
HOUSTON, TEXAS--(Marketwired - Aug. 14, 2014) - Caza Oil & Gas, Inc. ("Caza" or the "Company") (TSX:CAZ)(AIM:CAZA) is pleased to provide its unaudited financial and operational results for the three-months ended June 30, 2014.
Unaudited Second Quarter Financial Results
-- Caza's revenues from oil and natural gas sales increased 489% to
US$6,286,049 for the three-month period ended June 30, 2014, from
US$1,067,991 for the comparative period in 2013. This also represents a
quarter-on-quarter increase of 37% compared to US$4,591,507 in Q1 2014.
-- Adjusted EBITDA increased to US$3,269,495 for the three-month period
ended June 30, 2014, as compared to an adjusted EBITDA loss of
(US$824,891) for the comparative period in 2013. This also represents a
quarter-on-quarter increase of 65% compared to US$2,139,210 in Q1 2014.
-- Caza's oil and natural gas liquids (NGL) production increased 495% to
65,823 bbls for the three-month period ended June 30, 2014, from 11,059
bbls for the comparative period in 2013. This was also an increase of 47%
from 44,724 bbls in Q1 2014.
-- The Company's oil and NGL production has increased to 78% of the
Company's combined oil and natural gas production in Q2 2014 from 54% in
Q2 2013.
-- Caza's natural gas production increased 100% to 111,016 Mcf for the
three-month period ended June 30, 2014, from 55,626 Mcf for the
comparative period in 2013.
-- Average net production volumes increased 320% to 937 Boe/d for the
three-month period ended June 30, 2014, from 223 Boe/d for the
comparative period in 2013, and have since increased to an average of
1,315 Boe/d during the month of July 2014. The Company's net aggregate
production for the month of July was 40,776 Boe, which is currently ahead
of the Company's forecast.
Taking a brief look at your other two picks, I see something I like in each. Our focus here is a bit lighter than will customarily be found on boards devoted to specific stocks, so while it might not be best for all readers and contributors, I think we can at least pay lip service to stocks other than Caza.
As of tonight I am a moderator for this board. It is an honor to contribute anything I can. I know we're all here to profit from a market fraught with changing metrics yet we are probably driven by certain items we have in common with others. A few of these might be of interest here:
1. Industry cannot move forward without energy. Banking difficulties may be as sand thrown into a motor's gas tank but energy drives everything.
2. Energy is one of the most highly manipulated industries because of the above. This makes it more difficult to establish a mentally meaningful baseline from which to operate when trading.
3. Unquestionably, there is money to be made by trading energy. To do this effectively, we need to recognize the impact of seasonality on any energy company in which we invest. Seasonal changes force cyclicality issues to take front seats when analyzing such stocks.
4. Best of breed isn't a phrase we hear in stock parlance when examining energy companies engaged in oil and gas exploration yet it fits surprisingly well. CAZFF is definitely one of those I'd label best of breed for a number of reasons. Rather than delve into these now, I'll say simply that this is the stuff of analysis that could serve all of us on this board. Through our shared analysis we stand to grow in competence and character.
I salute all contributors here!
Thanks for asking. The ranch isn't large, just 11.27 acres in the outskirts of Harlingen, a quickly developing community just a few miles from the US-Mexican border. Texas is my backyard. A wonderful place to grow older while raising miniature cattle despite being beaten into submission by my wife. lol
Before selling your CVRR, please keep in mind that units ARE rising despite signs that really fail to add up in a nice and orderly fashion. This doesn't mean that there's anything wrong with the company. In fact, my hunch is that the company will do everything possible to remedy weaknesses exposed by the recent fire. If so, then the company will likely emerge ever stronger.
Something that probably should have come up before this:
Every six years or so, it is common practice for refiners to shut down for a month or more in order to take an in-depth view of all aspects of their operations in the name of safety and, of course, increasing efficiencies. When NTI did this around a half year ago, it was a preemptive move. The company had experienced an explosion and used that event to precipitate its scheduled maintenance program preemptively in conjunction with the installation of equipment that would add another 10,000 barrels of product to daily output. This saved unitholders from suffering twice over.
CVRR is using the current mishap to attend to that maintenance. Such work can easily require a month of down time. As a yield-conscious investor, you might want to weigh this. At the same time, it gets complicated when we consider that downtime is downtime, regardless of the reason. Bottom line thinking thus translates into that uh-oh feeling telling us there will be a greatly reduced distribution.
Watch the morning action carefully, perhaps try to reel in your expected high of the morning, selling half your position and playing the balance by ear.
Let us know how you make out, OK? This is great stuff to explore with others. I love it and truly hope you fare better than I did.
You were shrewder than I!
I'm in the process of buying a small ranch and thought I'd better play it a bit safer than my usual.
But I'm happy for you, it takes a lot of courage to do as you're doing, given that there's ample reason to be cautious.
Can you spare a dime for an empty cup of coffee? lol
Thank you so very much for your generosity. Judging from the large number of IHUBBERs following you, I'm positive you've helped many well-intentioned investors, yourself. There is no finer attribute one could present to you than to acknowledge your having been a positive influence in how others think. And it's through that altered state of thinking that we find ourselves capable of personal growth.
When we teach, we grow, too. I love being confronted with questions such as yours. As I believe I admitted earlier, fielding the questions brought me to question why I continued holding some 766 units in my wife's IRA. Thinking about my response to you, I knew I had to sell those last units.
As luck would have it, I missed the high of the day. But I'm absolutely convinced today's rise is a fluke, not to be trusted. When Mr. Lipinski states that production will be down severely, that the company's attentions are focused upon the families of those injured employees---I listen and trust he knows what he's talking about. These units are being propped up, I'm positive, for the negative overhang is indisputable. But maybe I'm crazy!
Best of continued luck to you!
OK, he said such-and-such.
It begs the question:
Why do you believe him?
I didn't and I sold most of my position before I got sucked into his machine that has eaten a lot of invested dollars. It dined on me, too.
This guy is very smart, has been around a long time and knows how to work the machine. Late filings are ALWAYS suspect as are public pitches telling you to buy millions of shares.
Of course, the push to get you to buy millions of more shares always occurs before notice of any late filings.
Dang! I see this thing was at .0002 today. I sold at .0006, having bought at .0008.
That makes me as much a fool as anybody.
Great question. Unfortunately, total throughput is projected to be limited to 170,000 daily as opposed to the previously expected 220,000. That spells some serious disappointment. We're talking about a thirty day shutdown.
Today's trading is making absolutely no sense to me whatsoever. I won't touch this for anything, pending notification from the General Partner regarding future guidance focusing on quarter #3.
Normally I don't buy into conspiracy manipulation but I've got to wonder who and why CVRR units would be holding their own, much less rising, given the present set of circumstances. On the other hand, I just noticed that volume is at less than half normal---based upon the last ten days' reported trading. That suggests to me that this thing is bidding higher because retail investors such as I am (!) don't know any better.
Are they thinking they'll get the distribution already removed from the units being sold today? Or are they ignorant of the fact there was a serious fire? And four people injured? Or that the company itself has stated publicly that production will be way lower than formerly projected?
This is absolutely nuts. I wouldn't recommend it to my former mother-in-law.
Thanks for appreciating my humor. One of the delightful aspects of blogging is that even big mouths with nothing to say get to blast it all over the place. Even my wife maintains I'm a blast of air. I won't say more about that. lol
NTI does pay a dividend. When we're discussing trusts, the word is "distribution." Ditto about shares which are referred to as "units." The terminology changes nothing but it helps to understand the language if you're going to explore such things.
The just announced distribution for NTI is 53 cents. It goes ex-dividend tomorrow, meaning that buying units today will result in the buyer receiving 53 cents per unit on payday in a couple of weeks. However, I believe units are higher this week only because of the payout due. Tomorrow, by SEC mandate, units will open at a minimum of 53 cents les than today's close unless units gap up. That is extremely unlikely, imo.
It is to be expected that within a month to two months or longer, units will drop significantly. This is due to NTI's being used not so much as a vehicle of capital appreciation but, rather, as a high yield instrument capable of producing significant income.
Thus, I'll probably be a buyer in two months from now.
Trusts, MLP's and stocks are all tradable and easily so, provided there's sufficient trading volume to support it. I avoid getting involved with stocks whose volume is in mere thousands for tat can spell trouble when wanting to add or reduce existing positions.
Your two picks show a healthy payout rate but are extremely risky plays, imo. Check out their one year charts to see how deterioration is taking a toll. This has to affect the bottom line in due time. In short, the stock is worth nothing to income-seekers if the company has to cut or even eliminate the distribution. Also, analysts are pointing to decaying unit or share prices, something that results from poor performance always.
Thank you for your kind words. However, I should have added something by way of a caveat earlier:
CVR Refining (CVRR) will likely drop considerably from today's opening price because of a fire announced last week. It occurred around the day after the stock went ex-dividend so it wouldn't affect Q2 but will most definitely do so when it becomes time for the Q3 payout. As a consequence, I sold off my position entirely today.
Reflecting on it more carefully to be of help to you and any interested others, I realized how short-sighted I'd been. After all, there are huge expenses usually accompanying refinery fires and/or explosions. And in this instance there were four injuries as well. This is really frightening stuff in my mind and it will take money to resolve---lots of it.
Most likely I'll restore the position when positive guidance comes out from the General Partner. Meanwhile, I figure it's just a matter of time before units tank, possibly into the $21 range, well down from the $25+ just days ago. Understood, of course, units are currently represented with the 96 cent distribution removed as per SEC mandate. It makes little sense to place value on a stock equal to that of a week earlier after stating that its production will be seriously impacted by a fire and injuries going forward.
Bottom line: I believe it would be a silly mistake to start a position in CVRR at this time.
There's much we can discuss on this board so I thought I'd take a step in that direction.
What are some of the upcoming events involving MJ that are scheduled in Colorado, Washington, Florida and elsewhere for that matter? Learning that a company will be represented in up-coming events can lead to meaningful disclosures of impactful value on a corporate bottom line. By the same token, our conspicuous absence would signal the reverse, giving us reason to question our own loyalty as shareholders in whatever investments we may choose.
Thinking along lines of State-wide endorsements of medical marijuana, is there currently a list of those States projected to "come out" in favor of such legislation come this November?
And lastly for this post: Must medical and recreational reforms of marijuana utilization work side by side or has it become obvious to some that each segment has its own supporters and each, its own audience? In short, will this become a case of autonomy? I would like to see the two paths unite meaningfully lest one or the other find itself under attack by BS-inclined politicos bent on currying favor with an out-of-date populace.
My thoughts above, may they move others to share theirs.
Watch out! Like you, I'd figured a bottom in the upper $22-to-very low $23 range once folks realize the distribution date of record passed and the income opportunity is effectively in a 90 day quiet period.
Now I'm thinking we could very well revisit $21-something. And that has me thinking I'd better liquidate the rest of my holding.
I'm in Northern Tier (NTI). This has been a great one for me. Check out the board here at IHUB. Pete and Red are two great moderators and genuinely aware and intelligent fellow investors. It's a great business model with wonderful appeal to middle Americans.
Personally I regard it as a mistake to overweight in the refining sector at this time. Doing so leaves us at the mercy of global tensions affecting the supply side of oil and equivalents. This, in turn, tends to damage that sense of security we yearn every time we hear of fighting in the Middle East. Like turtles, we hide in fear of global recession and this brings about a reduction in spending, driving and feeling good.
I also invest in NCT which is transforming into a senior housing REIT; PSEC---a monthly payer guaranteeing a bit more than 11 cents per share for the balance of this year; also Sandridge (PER) which pays a huge distribution but, as with all other market picks, carries indisputable risk.
For whatever it is worth, I make out well every year, never have any complaints and feel very fortunate to have so many options.
Getting back to CVRR, I think folks don't yet understand the impact from that fire and resultant injuries. Add in that there's reason for units to give up value, certainly not add it, and we have a classic case of delayed reaction. I truly hope I'm wrong but seriously doubt it.
If none of this helps you, I'll be happy to refund your money. lol
Excellent! This is where tiny seeds of industry stand a chance of growing into more meaningful shows of growth. I'm definitely looking forward to learning much more about hemp for I am quite ignorant.
This is exciting stuff for sure!
You're making a great case for the very existence of this board.
I think we've gotten a bit carried away with conceptual discovery to the exclusion of meaningful stock exploration. There's much to be gained by learning all things within reach but we stand to benefit more concretely as investors by pulling things together that are more likely to impact on our vested dollars.
That said, what upcoming events are scheduled in Colorado, Washington, Florida and elsewhere for that matter? Learning that a company will be represented in up-coming events can lead to meaningful disclosures of impactful value on the corporate bottom line. By the same token, our conspicuous absence would signal the reverse, giving us reason to question our own loyalty as shareholders.
Thinking along lines of State-wide endorsements of medical marijuana, is there currently a list of those States projected to "come out" in favor of such legislation come this November?
And lastly for this post: Must medical and recreational reforms of marijuana utilization work side by side or has it become obvious to some that each segment has its own supporters and each, its own audience? In short, will this become a case of autonomy? I would like to see the two paths unite meaningfully lest one or the other find itself under attack by BS-inclined politicos bent on currying favor with an out-of-date populace.
My thoughts above, may they move others to share theirs as "waterchaser" motivated me.
Does anyone else find it interesting that CVRR appears to be holding its own in terms of unit pricing? One would expect units to drop severely over the next month or so. I predict they will do just that.
The fire caused injuries to human life. It damaged infrastructure essential to conducting business. Repairs will be costly for they always are when it comes to remedying situations such as this in refineries. And then there's the issue of downtime with company guidance stating anticipated throughput will be down to about 170,000 and not the 220,000 of earlier times. It is a 29.4% diminution. This has to have enormous impact on VALUE of each unit if we look forward. I suspect many investors either don't know what transpired at the refinery and are simply too passive to make use of the information---or they don't grasp the gravity of the fire and related issues. There is no doubt in my mind but that Q3's distribution will be very greatly reduced in comparison to the 96 cents we're about to receive for Q2.
This is not a stock I regard as a smart acquisition at this time. This should change pending the issuance of fresh guidance from the General Partner as regards the disposition of repair progress and injured personnel. I currently hold just under a thousand units whereas I'll typically hold many times that.
When guidance comes out, I will most assuredly be adding heavily if/when the news is good. This company does a great job of it. Even the unfortunate fire is indeed a rarity for CVR Refining. For now, however, I wait and watch with cash redeployed elsewhere for the moment.
We're right in the middle of the year's slowest months when it comes to prizing oil-related fuels. Globally speaking, February is held to be the most difficult of all, when coldest temperature extremes are most likely happenstance and snow/ice storms are commonplace. In addition to this, there's plenty of storage already in place with significant lead time prior to any perceived need to revise utilization schedules.
Long story short: We are in the yearly slump time right now. Things will show signs of perking up around the middle of next month when energy traders scramble to lock up hedging contracts several months ahead of expected seasonal shifts in available supply.
Every year I scout for opportunities to make use of the above. This week I've been considering adding more shares but feel 33,000 shares should be enough.
You might look at another stock in the same business: Lonestar Energy LNREF. It's generally thought to spread out risks although both CAZFF & LNREF tend to move in parallel motion for the most part. Today, for example, both are higher whereas previously, both moved seemingly in lockstep.....down-wise, of course.
There are many of us energy-oriented investors enjoying regular income from MLPs such as NTI and CVRR. These trust-like structures cost more up front but fill a need for those in search of income. The point here is that there are numerous ways in which to make use of seasonal affectation. Hi-yield income producers present one.
Let me know how you make out if you decide to explore this.
Very true!
My five million shares have been set to rock and roll at $1.00 on a GTC basis since March of this year when locking up shares first came up on this message board. This is where many people learned of it. I'm surprised the idea strikes so many as novel. Many of us have been taking this precautionary measure for years.
Ameritrade, among others, has raised no objections whatsoever, I might add.
Now, USEI---show us what you got! I'm ready for some real fun.
Great, hearing this! It's exactly the sort of stuff I think we need to be exploring here as it relates directly to the business at hand.
Thank you!
Interesting article on rail shipping. I'd assume costs associated with retrofitting and/or replacing transport cars would eat into profits, making NTI's pipeline-fed supply that much more competitive. Is that right?
Your comments are always interesting and challenging. Thank you!
There will always be raindrops out there to spoil the party. Most situations in life and our spheres of influence present crossfire potentials that function much as balancers. I don't worry about such things, too busy livng.
This stock depicts patterns as evidenced through its daily trading. I pointed to it because I wasn't able to understand it. Some will be frightened off, I suspect, whereas to me it's a warning that the road ahead is not looking good. That's a call for action. When it presented itself in CVRR, it pushed me to unload 3,500 units of as soon as it went ex-dividend. Reacting quickly put nearly $5,200 in my pocket,including the payout due later this month. Guidance indicates no less than a 20% reduction in throughput. Costs related to repairs and damages could run far higher.
NTI has been extremely good to me and I continue to hold a significant position---happily, I might add. And I expect to add, following its going ex-div. We'll have about 85 days to it.
Meanwhile, the best of good fortune to you!
I missed it although Jason's latest update paved the way as I see it.
Thanks!
You said:
Big buy day, big volume all we need is a big pps. I know I am new to trading but shouldn't this pps have gone up with soo much action?
Not necessarily. Some people misread signals while others take advantage of opportunities. In my case I sold my position in FDMF after sustaining a significant loss. Had I not done so, my losses would have become steeper, still. But that may not mean much now.
I'm certain some investors are scooping up lots of shares, now that they're cheaper than they have been. We tend to get used to price points when they hover in a range; they take on a look of stability. Unfortunately trends will be subject to change.
If you can see solid reasons for holding this stock and perhaps adding on the cheap, by all means do as you think and feel makes the most sense. On the other hand, look at what Mr. Market is doing and ask yourself how wise and experienced you are in comparison to the multitudes out there who are obviously walking away.
Key to any successful investment will always be a review of things contributing to a potentially successful business operation. If you see things in this company that you believe spell likely success down the road, then you know what to do.
If you aren't uneasy about the company's history, you know what to do.
If you believe that Mr. Kistler is truthful in his presentations to the public, then you know what to do.
The most important thing here is that each investor looks at the credibility of management, finds satisfaction in the corporate history of earnings, SEC filings and honors commitments both stated orally and in print and then you feel you're convinced your chances for a successful trade are solid.
The best of luck to all here!
More often than not, the crowd knows.
Be careful. The stock market is of interest to some pretty smart folks who usually will sniff out the less promising opportunities.
The post I responded to was supposedly offering a film clip proving that USEI products were on store shelves.
It had nothing to do with trading. You're confusing something here.
Btw, I look forward to your Thursday trip to the stores. That should be very helpful to those of us believers.
I don't understand what you are saying.
The video is not working. Tried twice, reloading via F5.
A better question might be: Has the CEO communicated anything of relevance to us shareholders?
You're not making sense. What would make it terrible news? A buyout can be wonderful news if the premium proposed is enough to assuage concerns of the greedy among us. I am one, by the way. lol
That would hand me a quarter of a huge one!
I think I could adjust to that with a little help from my wife.
C'mon, USEI---you can do it!!!
Dr. Paiss, thou shalt induce no more aneurisms!
Funny, what you point out.
Not so funny is the super-sensitivity beneath those whose plaintive cries in the night speaking to likely jealousies. You leaked nothing at all. I scoured every message coming from your brain. You were completely upfront about everything. My take-away was your respect for Tony. Not to be confused with respect expected from an employee but from one man for another, the two of them formerly in a working relationship.
When you stated you are now a long, you spoke loudly and clearly as one who'd developed a level of respect for our CEO. This is something eluding most of us for we don't travel in the same circle nor do we work in it.
If there is any single quality or virtue always worthy of full satisfaction, surely it is "trust." Message boards are like steam rooms in a gym---the most likely place for breeding molds. Boards, by the same token, fairly beg for reasons to believe---to believe in the CEO, management, PR legitimacy, even us posters and most especially---posters with significant followings.
Trust is not especially abundant and perhaps it can't be. I do know there are individuals here who would never design anything aiming to hurt another. I regard those who would cause denigration and subsequent pain as the sickest of the sick. We are here to discuss our stocks of choice, not to be picked apart and eviscerated for the jollies of a twisted basher's mind.
So I personally trust those here with whom I find dialogue. Guiding me is the faith I have: Nearly all of us wish good things for others. This wish to share in life's bounties is the obvious justification for our personalizing stock ownership. Being able to do this openly with friends of like value and direction makes this a socially valuable forum.
Jugs
Surprising to this excited shareholder is that ERBB lost ground today while our fave gained 15%. I like seeing that USEI has legs of its own, not dependent upon that other company to establish its credibility in the marketplace. Ask ERBB shareholders and I believe they will maintain that theirs is the company of distinction. At the same time I'm seeing that Tony is wielding USEI into a recognizable entity worthy of a serious look by investors. I'm definitely a serious looker!
Personally, I see a fine case for both companies making headway. There are ample reasons to find either company attractive. However, in reviewing ERBB and USEI, I find more to my liking in the latter. Still, I look forward to demonstrations of profitability arising from their joint efforts, no pun intended. The next few months should be more and more exciting. I sure hope it happens!