Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
NITE just came back at 40K for $0.149 which is the first time it has been below $0.15 in awhile. WDCO has had a never ending supply. my guess this is the former partner or one of the few convertible lenders unloading. my guess is the partner since the convertible debt was higher. that supply is certainly making it easier to short and suppress the price.
the best remedy is execution. right now - that is dramatically growing top line and providing some rough guidance on when bottom line is expected to go positive. that will correct the share price. this is considered a $250MM market right now. if they take half of that - that is $125MM and there are 122MM shares outstanding. farfetched right now but if top line starts exponentially increasing where it becomes clear that they are THE dominant brand in the segment - then the price will follow suit.
it simply is not going to happen without top line sales increasing very quickly and convertible debt being retired and not reissuing/further diluting. still a lot of overhang that needs to be absorbed right now.
it would be nice to see some reference to revenues in the quarter to be reported on. we "know" they are expanding their reach. we need to see they are turning that reach into revenues.
the 10K at $0.015 thru WDCO seems to be a Fill and Replenish. as soon as the order executes it reappears. this has been there for a couple of weeks at least. there has been sufficient supply at that level to keep the buying from moving the ASK up
there was no sunshine. no pie in the sky predictions. it was a straightforward conversation on the pros and cons and what they have learned and where they were focusing their efforts. i have spoken to many CEOs, presidents, IRs, etc over the years as an investor and often as they were clients or potential clients. i use a mix of verbal tones, intonations, and body language (not over the phone obviously) in conjunction with answers provided. it is by no means scientific nor exact. it is my own intuition and gut that i use to correlate with the filings and raw numbers.
i previously said i would consider buying as it neared $0.01 or breached it if it went into freefall. while i think the company is treading on thin ice with respect to financial position/dilution, they have made significant headway in stores/distribution. now it is up to the numbers to see if those match the increased distribution and the last quarter was an anomaly based on shifting production to Ann Arbor.
of the several stores i have spoken with, they were consistent about production/supply issues they heard from their distributor (all three in my area are serviced by the same one - two stores had the same rep and the third had a different rep). the local store has been selling several boxes a week which he said "is very good for a new product that isn't being marketed or pushed by the distributor." this is consistent with what others on here have posted about stores in their areas.
now - if SSS in 1Q13 were truly down/awful because of the backorder and supply issues due to the underperforming supplier - than the 2Q13 numbers should show a sharp upturn. while that will not validate the company model - it will provide significant credence to the viability of the brand long term. it should also provide a significant boost to the stock price that should slow the shorting and provide more leverage for the company going forward.
right now - i am going to give them the benefit of the doubt and continue buying ahead of earnings. i like the risk/reward here. the slide from $0.08-$0.10 has been on relatively light volume and heavy shorting on a percentage basis. strong numbers should reverse that trend. if so - this should be an attractive entry point. again, for me, i like the risk/reward scenario. if the numbers are more in line with 1Q13 - i will conclude the turn in sales was not in large part attributable to the switch in supply points.
i still think this is very speculative. there is no sales history and no real track record of the founders/primary owners. several of the people they have brought on recently from competitors do provide some credibility to their strategy. with the limited field data i have been able to get first hand, the conversations with colleagues in other markets (Florida and LA), the conversation with the company, and the action since the launch of the movie - i am buying. if my intuition is wrong, i will take the loss and move on.
If converted - it would be around 4.5-5MM shares based on avg of three consecutive low closing days. Not attractive but with ojtstanding around 122 - not cataclysmic.
They need a big 2Q13 and even bigger 3Q13. If they have sales in line with 1Q13 - we will see a swift drop in price. I doubt we will see much before then in terms of movement jnless they preannounce.
They have to perform now or the stock price will wipe them out.
There is a difference. I have done as much DD on this company as can be done publicly. I finally got the chance to speak to someone. They are always very limited to what they can or can not answer but there are certain things I look for that are more in the way they are answered instead of the actual answer. This is much more effective in person obviously.
I still think this is a high risk investment but I am significantly more confidant in their understanding of the lack of attention to the investment side after speaking with them. Dramatically increasing revenues to line up with their reported increased distribution efforts will resolve the share price in the short term and reduce the impact of the convertible debt.
Luxe only saw the company relative to other brands and not from a Wall Street perspective. This came across as a pumping to the same degree he thought those of hs hammering on the financials and dilution as bashers.
We will see when the nhmbers come out if they line up.
After getting to speak to someone from the company live - I understand the passion that Luxe had and his frustration with the "naysayers." I doubt he had any idea how he came across but his enthusiasm was probably genuine.
While I still am not completely sold on the whole story, I will continue to buy on any further weakness. While I still think the next two quarters are key, if they manage to channel the passion on the marketing side over to the investment side - they should present a very attractive risk/reward scenario.
I encouraged them to accelerate the investment front, provide a more Wall Street friendly forum for communication, and try to match the enthusiasm on both sides of the business. Hopefully we will see a return to growth in the latest quarter to be reported and the price will reflect the improved scenario.
I've been buying all of the offers at $0.30. I like this story. Like the past success in the industry by mgmt. Like how they have managed capital and drastically limited dilution. Im seeing Wodka slowly creep into my area..
I'm surprised there are still shares being offered at $0.30. With the quarterly coming up and expected to be another solid quarter of growth - I thought we would see the spread tighten anr the BID and ASK move slowly up.
With the convertible debt - it makes sense that this would be heavily shorted. If and I think that is a big IF, the company reports a very sharp increase in revenues - the price will snap back quickly. High short interest is like a loaded spring. It keeps increasing the potential "stored" energy until the spring is let loose converting to kinetic energy or the spring breaks under the load and the kinetic energy destroys the mechnism.
One of the two is going to happen here. I started to buy at $0.015. I was waiting for lower but the seller really slowed down and the MMs are going deeper on the spread. The risk/reward here is much better than it was at $0.08. If they stumble or fall on this next report, I will take the loss and keep following. They need to execute now.
I am going to try and reach them live today and see if they can answer some questions
Thanks. I just replied. Let me know if you got it.
this site coincides with the FINRA data
i am nowhere near convinced that sales/revenues will be up big this quarter (to be reported). cant get excited about a company that doesnt know how to operate like a public company.
if anyone here has a direct line of someone that will speak in an IR context - please post there name/phone number on here. if not comfortable in this forum - email me their contact info at thesmalls@yahoo.com
i would really like to speak with someone in person. they have not responded to emails from their PRs or off their site. it is possible they are not getting them so i want to follow up with someone in person that will actually return a call or be available live.
thanks
this is at least their second if not third go around with a UN agency. did you look at the requirements for meeting this approval?
this is another fluff PR piece.
look at last 10Q - company only has one machine in inventory and does not have enough parts to make another one. based on cash on hand - they could only make one to two more and that would mean not paying any of the debt, overhead, etc.
not going to happen.
read and understand the 10Qs and 10Ks.
if you are just trading the spikes - trade away. if you are looking long term - understand the history of the company, the debt load, the lack of cash, lack of experience, and the other players in the market who are bigger, bette r financed, have name recognition, have sales, and similar product offerings...
You in this for the long term or a quick trade on a techincal spike or earnings bump?
One good sign on the trading and volume - this is being very heavily shorted. The last two weeks the short volume made up generally 50% and up the total volume. Some days it was almost 90%. With the convertible debt, scared buyers, and naive mgmt - it is relatively low risk short and the payoff has been huge (from $0.08 to $0.015)
I expect buying to pick back up going into earnings on a speculation play
Or - until the top ajd bottom line start coinciding with distribution rights and store placement. And the cash position strengthens to where no further dilution is required.
$2? do you know where that would put the market cap? i can see this being run up and down but little sustainability.
the company has never provided guidance or connected the dots between the number of stores and actual sales. they use a lot of innuendo but never talk revenues/sales. that is very disconcerting. i have highlighted that exact math on posts as have others. however, the company has not produced any SSS figures or addressed the massive drop in sales on the last quarter other than referring to the shift to ann arbor production and one distributor no longer carrying the product.
i am a shareholder but have a small position. i would love to take a bigger position and believe this story but the numbers/filings simply do not jive with the PRs and social media posts.
while you are soaking up shares at $0.16 - mgmt/insiders are dumping shares they converted as low as $0.0009 per the last 10Q.
meanwhile - they still have not announced new financing, have over 1BB shares outstanding, a CEO who is in complete control of the company, over $5MM in debt, one unit in inventory, and a couple hundred thousand in cash per last 10Q.
the last round of dilution increased outstanding shares by 30-40% and only raised $300-400K in cash. that doesnt fund the SG&A for a quarter let alone buy parts to build product.
so - why is this a screaming buy? just because they have been riding the water wave for the past 5-6 years?
for anyone considering this more than just a quick play - read and understand the 10Qs and past PRs of the company.
i hit the 2500 shares at $0.33 yesterday three times. someone has a Fill and Replace as i could not get 5K filled at $0.33 (or 10K) but as soon as i changed to 2500 it filled immediately and was replaced. it reappeared this morning. i put an order in not long after the opening for 2500 at $0.33 and the offer disappeared on the ASK and changed to 2500 at $0.345 which was taken out and immediately replaced with the same. since has jumped back to the 3900 and remained at 0.345
i didnt think i would get any at the high $0.20s or low $0.30s but seems like a seller keeps reappearing. good news is each time the volume has been light. looks like it is a structured sell to supplement income/reduce holdings rather than a liquidation.
fair enough. there is a fair amount of convertible debt in this one that is being unloaded. may or may not have anything to do with underlying fundamentals. regardless, teh company is willfully ignoring their responsibility to shareholders and allowing the dilution and share price erosion. i do not see that stopping (slowing maybe) without very strong 2Q13 results and/or a specific PR about upcoming results and guidance on remainder of 2013. that is all WELL withing their power and bounds. in this case, the silence is speaking more loudly than their distributor agreements they are signing or store presence they are claiming.
they may be on the forefront - but they will be leveraged out or absorbed long before long term investors will be able to be rewarded for their "patience"
you are simply playing in semantics to willfully ignore the real debate. i have been consistent about my opinion on this company and stock. if you are a short term trader then long term company fundamentals do not apply and you get in and out with the momentum.
but to allude that great things are going to happen to this company because of a fluff PRs or to suggest that the company is going to take off is irresponsible relative to the balance sheet and past failures.
the company has been playing on the "water theme" since its inception and has made the insiders very wealthy while leaving any "investor" who believed in the tech/company out. traders can do well on the spikes but that is completely different than long term investors.
however, you already know this. most on here probably do as well since this forum is dominated by traders that have very little to no understanding on the past of this company (or others) that they "invest" in
The "alaska" "build" was already in inventory. It was one of two machines at the time. The other is supposedly in texas somewhere in an oil field. Further - the cost of capital was around $0.06/share(when it was trading between $0.08-0.10). Now the cost of capital is between $0.0009 and 0.011 per the last 10Q.
Let them manage the company...? If you are a serious investor in this company (and not trading the spikes) that is absolutely laughable. Where is the return for shareholders long term? What possible metrics were used for the lavish stock option awards the two principles receive annually? The CEO is averaging well over $1MM/year in her tenure there and what has the stock price done during that time?
Try again.
Why do you think this is the bottom and why do you think it is going to bounce?
The only thing that will provide SUSTAINED movement upwards is a massive increase in revenues in 2Q13 well past the 2012 quarterly numbers. The company has done no PR on the numbers which is a bad sign.
This will continue to drift lower until earnings. There may be a small surge in anticipation of them having a breakout quarter but it will quickly be stifled by bagholders looking for an exit.
It has been discussed in their 10K and the inventory/ parts are listed in the asset section in the balance sheet on the same 10K.
http://m.prnewswire.com/news-releases/puresafe-water-systems-inc-announces-the-delivery-of-the-first-response-water-system-to-the-department-of-military-and-veterans-affairs-for-the-state-of-alaska-138772549.html
That was real tough. I thought it was late 2011. Actually early 2012.
Go reread the post. That "sale" occurred back in 2011. The release says they just commissioned the machine. This company only has one unit in inventory and not enough parts or money to make any more.
Per shareholder meeting - 1MM sharesrepurchased up thru the meeting. 360k as of 3/31. So they are still facing an uphill climb on volume.
$2.99/bottle in the the two stores I have seen them in Michigan. One was a c-store and the other my local liquor store.
You can NOT ignore PPS.
Read their last PR and go tbrough the SEC filing. If you do not understand the impact of that financing on share price - you need to go ask someone you personally k ow (so there is no bias) and understand how that works.
This company is 15% of where it was from just a couple of months ago. That is NOT meeting the fiduciary responsibility to the shareholders. If the PPS is being manipulated - or artifically low - say it. More importAntly - tell the investors how you are going to correct it by doing the basics and when the top and bottom lines will coincide towards profitability.
Again - even if the company "makes it" in two to three years - your current shares will have been diluted down to the point of being worthless.
The company simply can NOT blissfully ignore share lrice with the "if you build it they will come" attitude.
Actually - the correlation is somewhat insignificant at this point unless those numbers can be reproduced on a large scale.
It doesn't matter if they quadruple their sales if their stock is trading at $0.005 and then quadruples up to $0.02. Convertible debt still wipes out long term shareholders.
I want the he company to act like a public company and then I will get excited about the stock and numbers.
I went into my local store and the owner was there. He had a new/full box on the counter and I asked him how they were selling. He said "good now. We had a problem getting them for awhile but now they are starting to really pick up." I asked him how many boxes a week and hesaid " 2 or so. Which, is pretty good considering we only have one box there (on the counter)and no real advertisement/displaing".
He asked how the stock was doing and I laugjed and told him it wasn't. We briefly discussed the movie and lack of affect. He said he was disappointed he didn't see the commercial and I told him it was only select markets.
Anyway - it is one data point. I bought four bottles and going to pass out to some colleagues next week in Chicago and see what they think.
He also said the distributor was starting to push it. I wanted to ask what he meant but I had a couple people behind me and he needed to ring them up. Again - this is a standalone liquor store in a small town. Ery large wine, beer, and liquor selection.
I see this and think -"they are getting through to the market" and then look at the numbers and lack of IR and just want to run away.
plenty of shares available and at a steep discount to the low and mid $0.02s where many on here were clamoring (purportedly) for shares.
there is nothing changed in the fundamentals of the company since all of the excitement over the company a month ago. so - why now is there no posting, buying, or exuberance about the potential?.
right now you can pick up 130K shares at $0.015 which is 60% of the price they were just a month ago with no changes in the company. so - where is the buying frenzy?
That is the case with any small/emerging company.
The issue is one of probability and risk/reward. Since the company's only avenue for working capital is the markets and the funding keepz getting more and more expensive for existing shareholders - the likelihood of them doing so (or long term shareholders making money) decreases exponentially and the risk rises relatove to the reward.
If mgmt does not understand this basic premise (or worse yet - ignores it) - they shouldn't be a public company. One is being incompetent. The other can be criminal.
lux did provide good info on the store side. however, you seem to be in the same boat as he is when it comes to the investment side. even if you buy a few "milly" shares - it wont mean much if they end up with 2BB outstanding due to all the dilution and then do a 1000:1 reverse split.
a company simply can not ignore stock price especially when they have considerable convertible debt. they will not be able to get attractive terms and have to keep going deeper for funds. there is a reason it is called death spiral financing.
they have two quarters and they actually may be down to just one at this point. the fall from $0.08 to $0.0175 was too swift. the only good news for long term holders is the drop was stillon relatively light volume relative to outstanding. there hasnt been capitulation yet but it probably is not far behind.
if the company is legit (with respect to shareholders) they need to address it now and swiftly.
stockcrate - the product may work and be legit - but it doesnt mean the company is. i am inclined to give them the benefit of the doubt since the massive PR/advertising that they do on site does not lend itself to fleecing shareholders. however, it is that presence that could also be the big coup if it were a scam (ie -a rather sophisticated one).
i am more inclined to think they are incompetent on the business/investment side.
as i have said before, the product and mgmt can be totally legit and dedicated but the current and long term shareholders will be decimated before the company can ever "make it" and start earning money. the last round of financing was again, convertible and with the stock tanking - it could be converted into millions of shares and possibly doubling share count. i dont think most on here understand the impact of convertible debt/dilution.
if the company starts producing positive earnings in 2 years and there are 100X more shares than today - the company has to make 100x more in earnings at that point than they did at todays point to justify share price. for all intent and purpose - that means current shareholders are wiped out or drastically marginalized.
that is why it is CRITICAL for the mgmt to NOT ignore the share price. it is being shorted with no abandon right now and there is no price support. if it drops below $0.015 - it will quickly drop below $0.01. at some point - speculators will start piling in but that will just add to volatility. none of this is positive for current or long term shareholders.
many are but they are definitely NOT all the same.
they may trade similarly but how they are managed and the financial and business acumen of the mgmt will mostly determine which ones can be successful. wading into the capital markets at this level is tough for any company but it can be done successfully.
this one is being managed and acting like most. if the brand is as viable as they are claiming with respect to distribution and shelf space - then they are doing a very poor job on the business end and both will come to light in the next quarters.
that is the exact issue with NOT managing the investment side of the business.
there simply is NO reason to invest right now in this company when the dilution train is steaming down the track with no engineer at the controls. whether or not the load on the train is valuable it isnt going to get to its destination.
when the attention to that side of the business is so flagrantly absent - it makes one assume they are simply not that incompetent but rather not interested in protecting shareholder value and engorging themselves instead.
maybe a better way to inform investors...
here is an article /PR just issued by Panache Beverage. i am an investor in WDKA and still buying. they announced they are committing 85% of marketing/advertising dollars to online media vs. tradition print to build their brands. so - there is nothing wrong with the social media root. the BIG difference is their attention to the investment side. their numbers are also significantly better and the track record of success with the key players has already been established.
IF HJOE wants to be taken seriously by long term investors, they need to take this kind of approach with WS or they will be taken out before they can "make it".
Alibi American Whiskey Launches; Dedicates 85% of Total Consumer Marketing Spend to Digital
"Scandal App" and Crowdsourcing at the Center of the Campaign
NEW YORK, NY -- (Marketwired) -- 07/01/13 -- Alibi American Whiskey, from Panache Beverages Inc. (OTCQB: WDKA), is approaching its brand marketing campaign in a unique way, dedicating 85% of its consumer marketing spend to digital, social and mobile. The campaign focuses almost solely on brand building and organic grassroots awareness around the brand's edgy positioning and desire to be a part of the conversation on all things "controversial."
At the center of the campaign is its Scandal app; an new application that allows users to capture and submit images of anyone or anything they think may need an Alibi and instantly publish an image with real time voting, allowing people to decide for themselves if an Alibi is deserved.
The free app uses crowdsourcing to determine the culprit's accountability. The app ties in seamlessly with other social media platforms enabling frictionless sharing -- once published, voting on any individual scandal remains with the original content, regardless of where its published. As more votes are cast the scales tilt and the "yes" or "no" percentages are broken down to show to the crowd's majority opinion.
The campaign will be supported with national digital media via TMZ, Spin Media and Woven Media as well as a series of content partnerships. Engine Shop developed the marketing strategy and manages all marketing, advertising and promotions for Panache.
About Alibi American Whiskey
Alibi is a corn-based whiskey that contains elements of rye and malted barley aged in first-fill American oak casks, distilled, bottled and blended in Florida. A counterpoint to current mainstream bourbon and rye market trends, Alibi has set out to demystify the brown category by offering a more accessible product. www.alibiamerica.com
About Panache Beverages
Panache Beverages, Inc. (OTCQB: WDKA), based in New York, is an alcoholic beverage company specializing in the development, global sales and marketing of spirits brands. The Company's expertise lies in the strategic development and aggressive early growth of its brands establishing its assets as viable and attractive acquisition candidates for the major global spirits companies. Panache intends to build its brands as individual acquisition candidates while continuing to develop its pipeline of new brands in to the Panache portfolio. Panache's existing portfolio contains three brands: Wódka Vodka, Alchemia Infused Vodka and Alibi American Whiskey.
Contact:
Alyssa Dupre
Email Contact
Source: Panache Beverages Inc.
Released July 1, 2013
yes i did. i also said - absent of any news/fluff piece it would continue the same downward trend it has the past 4-5 years. they put out a couple fluff pieces (new partnership/distribution) and one on completed drawings. it sucked in some new momentum players and some long term hopefuls continued averaging down.
meanwhile - it topped out a couple weeks ago and is now back to the same trend it was pre "drawings" announcement. heavy sell side pressure, wide spread, and a news vacuum about that never ending waiting on "funding."
you probably missed/ignored the $0.0009 options that were given to the insiders on that last round of conversion. i said the price would breach the $0.001 barrier. the market price hasnt reflected that but it has always followed in the past and i stand by my assertion that it will continue to do so again.
as we get closer to 8/15 - i expect the price to head back down below $0.01 and probably test new lows that were set earlier this year after earnings are released.
big gamble for him to be a non reporting 5% owner with the past trouble he is in. unless he is keeping the shares in trusts/offshore and still trying to direct the action.
from what i read, and take it for what it is worth, there was a clean and definitive separation with the new owners. few would know if that was incorrect and i understand your concerns about that type of person. i follow several companies where one player continues wreaking havoc and swindling investors and post similar sentiments as you. i dont have much invested in this and bought before the movie release and then after the initial drop. when there was no follow up after that and no response to the emails, web questions, and a call - i wasnt going to take a large position until i had some questions answered.
as you do, i believe the next two quarters are key. either they rebound and continue the trend from last year or they will become insignificant after 3Q13 results.
on the positive side - if you are running a shell to churn stock - you do not spend the money on advertising, marketing, and excess licensing that they are doing. that is a lot of cash that you could be paying yourself. i have also not seen any significant change in shares for insiders which is also positive. it could simply be these guys are naive to WS or are overly confident and realize (or truly believe) the tanking stock is a short term issue. if they know they are going to have a blow out second quarter (and/or third) - there is no reason to sound the alarm bells.
however, if they are going to have a blowout 2nd quarter - they should be perannouncing. even if the results "rectify" the stock price in the short term - it will still not provide long term, dedicated investors any security and keep the stock in weak hands instead of long termers thus dramatically increasing the volatility and making it a haven for shorts until they get closer to producing positive earnings.